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LMZ345 Expires:202312041045;;860906 Fzus53 Kapx 040239 Nshapx
nearshore marine forecast national weather service gaylord mi 939 pm est Sun dec 3 2023
for waters within five nautical miles of shore on lakes huron... Michigan and superior.
waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum.
lmz344-345-041045- sleeping bear point to grand traverse light mi- point betsie to sleeping bear point mi- 939 pm est Sun dec 3 2023
Overnight..North wind 5 to 10 knots. Chance of snow and slight chance of rain after midnight, then slight chance of snow showers after midnight. Waves 2 feet or less.
Monday..North wind 5 to 10 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Monday night..Light winds. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday..Northeast wind 5 to 10 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
see the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.

LMZ300
No data

FXUS63 KAPX 040237 AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 937 PM EST Sun Dec 3 2023

UPDATE
Issued at 937 PM EST Sun Dec 3 2023

Low pressure center is moving out of the Eastern Great Lakes toward New England late this evening. Resulting widespread light snow impacting our CWA continues to very slowly diminish in both areal coverage and intensity as synoptic support and moisture wane as the low exits eastward. This slow diminish will continue into the overnight hours...with all snow chances coming to an end by or just before daybreak on Monday. Current forecast is handling this scenario well...so only minor adjustments are needed attm. Any additional snow accumulations will be minor...generally a trace to half an inch. Overnight lows will drop mainly into the 20s across our CWA.

NEAR TERM
(Through Tonight)
Issued at 204 PM EST Sun Dec 3 2023

High Impact Weather Potential: Widespread snow with snow-covered/ slushy/slick roads across parts of northern Michigan. Snow diminishes this evening.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Low pressure is centered near central Lake Erie this afternoon...progged to continue to slide northeast through the remainder of the day, becoming centered over upstate NY by this evening. Deep moisture and fgen response will follow suit to the east as well, eventually pulling synoptic moisture out of northern Michigan after sunset. Lingering low-level moisture and a marginally supportive over-water thermal gradient may prove to be enough to continue a few snow showers/patchy drizzle through tonight in typically favored northwest flow lake effect areas.

Primary Forecast Concerns: Diminishing precipitation chances this evening/tonight.

Widespread precipitation continues across the Northwoods this afternoon. Dominant precipitation type remains snow for many, aside from a rain/snow mix/all rain from roughly just south of APN to Gladwin and points east. Numerous reports so far of 2-3" across areas that have seen snow since early-mid morning including Lake Ann, Houghton Lake, Bellaire and Gaylord. Another inch or two of wet accumulation likely near and north of M-32 to the Mackinac Bridge with lesser additional amounts elsewhere. Snow-covered/ slushy/slick roads remain likely across much of northern lower.
Snow is expected to diminish from west to east through the evening as deep moisture and forcing is pulled off to the east.

Winds back more northerly this evening and eventually northwesterly by Monday morning. This will gradually bring drier air back into northern MI, but probably not quite quick enough to stop a few lingering spotty snow showers/patchy drizzle/fzdz...mainly for northern lower. Lows tonight spanning the 20s with some spots in eastern upper dropping into the upper teens.

SHORT TERM
(Monday through Wednesday)
Issued at 204 PM EST Sun Dec 3 2023

High Impact Weather Potential: Low chances for patchy freezing drizzle early Monday morning. Otherwise, minimal.

Pattern Forecast: Some semblance of upper-level longwave troughing remains the rule across the eastern half of the CONUS through Tuesday night before heights are expected to begin to rise as upstream ridging encroaches on the region for mid-late week. That said, embedded mid-level ridging is expected to cross the area late Monday/Monday night in advance of shortwave troughing set to dive from the northern Plains into the western Great Lakes. Latest trends continue support a southward trend to attendant weak low pressure with that wave...perhaps going as far to keep precipitation chances entirely to our south.

Primary Forecast Concerns: Lingering light precipitation chances early Monday. Clipper system late Monday night - Tuesday (trending south).

Any lingering very low chances for light precip (flurries/patchy freezing drizzle) early Monday morning should be mitigated fairly quickly as deep layer dry air continues to advect in from the north/northwest. More sunshine expected for the afternoon with highs spanning the 30s area-wide (upper 30s to near 40 degrees at the immediate shorelines).

Attention pretty quickly turns to the late Monday-Tuesday time frame with respect to the aforementioned approaching clipper system.
Latest trends continue to favor a more southerly track to this system, perhaps keeping related precipitation entirely to our south.
Not enough confidence in that just yet to remove PoPs entirely, with the "highest" chances for intermittent snow in the local area remaining south of Frankfort to Gladwin. Certainly doesn't appear to a big deal by any stretch with latest probabilistic guidance hinting at chances for 1" of snow across those areas at no more than 5-10%.

Predominantly tranquil conditions expected for most of Wednesday although another wave to our north will be approaching late in the period (discussed more below). Otherwise, near-normal temperatures continue...generally in the low-mid 30s area-wide.

LONG TERM
(Wednesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 204 PM EST Sun Dec 3 2023

High Impact Weather Potential: Minimal for now.

Mid-upper level ridging continues to build across the nation's midsection for the late week time frame. Only glaring blemish to this is another northern stream wave riding along western periphery of troughing centered to our east. This should aid in dragging a warm front across the region late Wednesday into Thursday morning, perhaps with an area of isentropically driven snow perhaps scraping northern portions of the forecast area. Long range probabilistic guidance trends point toward the best chance for accumulating snow across the Straits and eastern U.P. Aforementioned rising heights Thursday through Friday with temperatures perhaps climbing well above normal.

AVIATION
(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 607 PM EST Sun Dec 3 2023

Low pressure currently centered over the Eastern Great Lakes will continue to track east into New England tonight...with low level ridging building into Michigan on Monday. Widespread light snow will gradually come to an end tonight...with diminishing clouds on Monday. IFR/MVFR conditions tonight will improve to VFR on Monday.
Surface winds will be from the north under 10 kts tonight and then shift to the NW on Monday.

MARINE
Issued at 204 PM EST Sun Dec 3 2023

Sub-advisory winds/waves are expected to continue across northern Michigan's nearshore waters into early next week. East-northeast winds continue this afternoon as low pressure crosses to our southeast before backing more northwesterly tonight into Monday.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

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