Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Pilgrim, MI

DISCUSSION
Issued at 334 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025

A cool weekend is in store as the western Great Lakes will remain to the west of slow moving H85-H5 low, some 2-4SD below normal.
Greatest chances for rain will be today, but coverage will be spotty (20-40%) and rain amounts will be well under 0.10 inch.
Sfc low has unraveled compared to what it was 24 hr ago (down to around 980mb over the Dakotas around daybreak Friday). The low is now around 992mb over Lake Superior this morning but changes little in strength through the afternoon. This will keep a tight pressure gradient in place, leading to breezy northwest winds up to 30 mph late this morning into the afternoon, so not near as strong compared to what occurred across the area yesterday.
Temperatures will be cooler than average and much cooler than what we have seen recently. Highs today will remain in the 50s central and north-central, to 60-63F from the Fox Valley and lakeshore into far northeast Wisconsin.

Cyclonic NW-N flow keeps plenty of clouds around tonight with some sprinkles at times, especially north. Lows may drop to the mid 30s north but with clouds and wind, no real risk of frost.
Readings will be in 40s elsewhere. Due N winds on Sunday off Lake Superior will keep clouds and a few sprinkles across the north.
Clouds will slowly scatter out elsewhere. More of a gradient in highs on Sunday with only mid 40s north, but as warm as lower 60s parts of central WI along and south of highway 10 where there will be more breaks of sun.

Only real impactful weather is Sunday night. Once clouds clear out as high tries to ridge into northern WI, stage will be set for a chilly night. NBM probabilities remain very high (over 70%) that parts of northern WI will see sub-freezing temps. Trouble is that soundings point to winds to not completely decouple. This could be situation of freeze or nothing as radiational cooling potential seems lower for a lot of frost. Will introduce the potential for frost or freeze in this mornings HWO.

Rest of the forecast features cooler temps, with highs likely remaining below normal through at least Thursday. EC EFI highlights indicates that EC Ensemble is shifting in a negative way from the reforecast climatology for highs much of the week. Coolest days will be Monday through Wednesday. Jet energy emerging out of western CONUS trough will result in several rounds of severe weather for the central and southern Plains, but thunder risk will be minimal up our way. Late Monday night through Tuesday night could see some rain make it into at least the southern forecast area, but north could stay dry. Seems that the canadian sourced high over Hudson Bay will really try to put brakes on northern progression of the rain. Models and ensembles have signaled this for many days now.
Outside that chance of rain, dry weather should prevail through rest of the workweek.

AVIATION
for 12Z TAF Issuance Issued at 645 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025

Plan on a mix of IFR to MVFR ceilings through the TAF period with a few light showers or sprinkles at times. Rain chances will be higher today. Ceilings could scatter out over east-central WI (MTW)
late today into tonight. West to northwest surface winds will increase through the day, with gusts of 20-25 kts this afternoon. Winds will slowly diminish tonight, with gusts diminishing to less than 15 kts by late evening.

MARINE
Issued at 334 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025

West winds shift to the northwest this afternoon, with gusts over 20 kts at times into this evening. Higher gusts now expected to linger well into the evening, so extended the Small Craft Advisory for all areas. Highest waves will be early this morning before winds shift offshore later this morning through tonight.

GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.