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LMZ323 Grand Traverse Bay South Of A Line Grand Traverse Light To Norwood Mi- 903 Pm Est Thu Nov 30 2023
Overnight..Northwest wind 5 to 10 knots after midnight becoming variable 10 knots or less. Chance of flurries after midnight. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday..East wind 5 to 10 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday night..Northeast wind 5 to 10 knots. Cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday..Northeast wind 5 to 10 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
see the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.

LMZ300
No data

FXUS63 KAPX 010209 AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 909 PM EST Thu Nov 30 2023

UPDATE
Issued at 909 PM EST Thu Nov 30 2023

Weak cold front has pushed just south of our CWA late this evening. A few flurries were noted both on radar and in surface obs across portions of our CWA
Otherwise
only impact from this FROPA was an increase in low clouds. Expect little will change overnight...other than the arrival of colder air into our region.
Skies will remain partly to mostly cloudy overnight...as low temps drop into the upper teens and lower 20s.

NEAR TERM
(Through Tonight)
Issued at 245 PM EST Thu Nov 30 2023

High Impact Weather Potential: Low potential for patchy freezing fog tonight.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Closed upper-level low centered near Hudson Bay will continue to pinwheel well to our north this afternoon-tonight. Attendant longwave troughing remains draped across the northern Lakes with an embedded mid-level speed max aiding to drive weak surface low pressure into Quebec. Attendant moisture-starved cold front currently making headway across eastern upper and far northern lower Michigan will continue to sag south through the remainder of the forecast area by mid-late evening.
Relatively higher surface pressures bleed in from the west tonight while low pressure ramps up over the lower/mid Mississippi Valley...setting its sights on the lower Great Lakes Friday.

Primary Forecast Concerns: Low temperatures and patchy freezing fog potential tonight.

Little in the way of sensible weather across northern Michigan this afternoon as the aforementioned cold front continues to slowly slide southeast across the forecast area. This will largely put an end to rather impressive warm advection today (many areas in the 40s) as winds gradually veer northwesterly post frontal passage. This should be plenty to garner at least a marginal lake response, especially across eastern upper where more numerous lake induced clouds and perhaps a few snow showers/patchy freezing drizzle are possible this evening/tonight.

A chilly night ahead likely for some, especially where clouds remain few to scattered (most likely over northeast lower). Light winds should promote efficient radiational cooling in those areas with lows dipping as low as the teens in the coldest spots. Some patchy freezing fog not out of the question as well -- similar to this past night, which may result in localized slick roads for Friday morning commute. However, any fog threat should be mitigated late as increasing/thickening high cloud is expected from south to north between 09-12z.

SHORT TERM
(Friday through Sunday)
Issued at 245 PM EST Thu Nov 30 2023

High Impact Weather Potential: Mainly light snow potential at times Friday through the weekend.

Pattern Forecast: At the start of the period Friday morning, upper- level troughing is expected to be evident across the eastern half of Canada sagging into the northeastern U.S. Additional troughing over the Desert Southwest. Shortwave energy expected to be embedded in an active southern jet...riding over the mid-MS Valley Friday morning before trekking through the Ohio Valley Friday afternoon/evening. Attendant surface low to follow suit across the Ohio Valley/southern Lakes through this time frame. Farther into the weekend, parent trough axis centered upstream is expected to slowly meander across the nation's midsection, eventually crossing northern MI late in the weekend.

Primary Forecast Concerns: Periods of active weather possible at times through the weekend, although no glaring periods of truly high impact weather.

High clouds will be thickening Friday morning in advance of low pressure set to cross to our south Friday afternoon into Friday night. Latest trends continue to support the bulk of snow accumulation and related impacts with this system remaining across southern/central lower Michigan with a sharp cutoff on the northern extent of precip owing to a focused fgen response and dry northeasterly winds wrapping into northern MI. That said, do think it's pretty likely that at least the M-55 corridor (especially Gladwin/Arenac counties) gets grazed with a period of light snow...with much lower confidence in that extending up towards M-72. Accumulations likely limited to an inch or less.

Additional energy likely to be riding up a nearly stationary baroclinic zone Friday night/Saturday with additional light snow and perhaps drizzle potential across parts of northern lower Michigan.
Expect these additional precip chances to again focus across southern areas, but with some potential for the northern reaches to scrape farther north toward the M-32 and M-68 corridors.

Similar story heading through Sunday with a third wave potentially bringing more sensible weather to the Northwoods. Fairly low confidence in how that evolves and likely highly dependent on how these prior systems evolve, but again no glaring signs for significant snow accumulation or widespread high impacts.

LONG TERM
(Sunday night through Thursday)
Issued at 245 PM EST Thu Nov 30 2023

High Impact Weather Potential...Minimal for now.

Conditions in the long term forecast remain pretty unimpactful at this time. Longwave troughing will continue mostly cloudy and cool conditions with perhaps some precipitation at times next week, mainly driven by embedded disturbances/shortwave troughs.

Monday will start the forecast period off mostly dry. Best chances of scattered snow/rain will be the southern counties of the CWA as low pressure progresses across the Ohio Valley. Heading toward midweek, chances of precipitation increase Monday night - Tuesday and again Thursday-Friday. While latest trends suggest no widespread heavy precipitation is expected, these time frames may pose our best chances for accumulating snow across parts of northern Michigan. High temperatures near-normal for much of the long-term forecast period...trending toward above normal toward the end of next week.

AVIATION
(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 600 PM EST Thu Nov 30 2023

Weak moisture-starved cold front will continue to slide thru Northern Michigan this evening...with weak CAA taking place behind it later tonight thru Friday. No precip is expected from this front...only increasing clouds and low VFR/MVFR cigs. Surface winds will shift to the NW AOB 10 kts behind this front.

MARINE
Issued at 245 PM EST Thu Nov 30 2023

Southwest winds are in the process of veering northwesterly behind a passing cold front this afternoon. Lingering small craft advisories on northern Lake Michigan/Huron nearshore waters set to expire this evening with lingering advisory gusts/waves on Whitefish Bay into tonight. Sub-advisory conditions are expected Friday into the start of the weekend across the vast majority of northern MI's nearshore waters.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

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