Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Manistee Lake, MI

DISCUSSION
Issued at 238 AM EST Sun Nov 8 2026

A small shortwave ridge is briefly overhead early this morning.
This ridge gets replaced by a sharp upper trof, now in far western Ontario. This trof is taking on a more neutral to slight negative tilt, as an individual wave rounds its base. An associated surface low is well north of Lk Superior, moving ese-ward. It passes well to our north today, dragging an cold/occluded front across northern MI this morning and early afternoon.

Presently quiet in our neighborhood, though banded cirrus is increasing just to our west. Some fog has formed in vicinity of the Soo (KANJ/CYAM have seen vsbys down to 1/4SM at times), but that's it. A tightening pressure gradient and associated increasing low-level winds should erode the fog this morning.
Thicker/ layered cloud is just north of Lk Superior and MN.
Better moisture with this system looks to be somewhat behind the front, and current sat imagery is in agreement.

The other process of note is increasing overlake instability behind the boundary. 850mb temps drop to slightly below 0C by late afternoon. Expect lake enhanced showers in eastern upper MI to get going toward midday, and in n central and ne lower MI in the afternoon. 1000-850mb winds will be slowly/steadily veering, from wnw at midday to nnw by midnight. Sct to numerous showers expected, except for the far sw. The BL will be warm enough to keep precip liquid into tonight. Pops diminish toward/after midnight as moisture band exits east. Brisk to windy, especially this afternoon/evening, with some 30-35mph gusts in exposed locales.

A somewhat more prominent shortwave ridge slides in from the wnw on Monday. This contributes to quieter wx early in the work week. A clipper-type digging shortwave passes a little to our north Monday night/Tue, but better forcing/moisture is still staying mostly to our north. Some small pops for now, mainly in parts of Chippewa Co. Midweek is likely to feature cyclogenesis in the central/eastern CONUS. Though some models may overstate the degree to which this system interact/coalesces/phases, some sort of strengthening system is likely to cross the OH Valley or Great Lakes area. Plenty of solutions have a storm track too far south for significant QPF here, which is limiting pops for now. Eventually, sharply colder air gets dragged southward behind this system. However, for more the northerly fetch limits the impacted areas of expected lake effect precip.

Max temps somewhat milder today into Tue, with Tuesday still looking the warmest. Wednesday is a transition day, with much cooler air late week (upper 30s to mid 40s).

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
Issued at 1241 PM EST Sun Nov 8 2026

Mix of low VFR to MVFR CIGs to remain through much of this cycle.
SCT VCSH/-SHRA are expected this afternoon into early tonight, especially CIU, PLN, APN, with VFR VSBY likely. Activity lingers but diminishes through the night. Northwest winds slowly decrease through the night as well, but will remain breezy to windy this afternoon and evening, 10-15G20- 30KTs possible.
Precipitation free weather is expected on Monday, however, the lower cloud deck will remain.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EST Monday for LHZ345-346-349.
Gale Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to 5 AM EST Monday for LHZ347-348.
Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EST Monday for LMZ323-341-342- 344>346.
Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EST Monday for LSZ322.
Gale Warning until 5 AM EST Monday for LSZ321.