Marine Forecasts

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Manistee Lake, MI

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Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 040810 AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 310 AM EST Thu Mar 4 2021

NEAR TERM. (Today through Tonight) Issued at 308 AM EST Thu Mar 4 2021

. Cooler weather returns .

High impact weather potential: None.

Pattern synopsis/forecast:

Mid and upper level flow regime continues to amplify across NOAM early this morning . consisting of building Intermountain West/High Plains ridging and deepening troughing across the northeast Conus up into the Canadian Maritimes. Northwest flow between these features centered right across the Great Lakes, allowing cooler Canadian air to drop through the region. Otherwise, another uneventful night, with just some lake clouds and scattered flurried dotting the northern Michigan landscape.

Mid and upper level features will continue to amplify right through the end of this week . essentially remaining in-place as they do so. Large area of Canadian high pressure will slowly drop south in north flow along ridge/trough interface. This will continue to produce mainly dry and seasonably cool conditions across the Northwoods.

Primary forecast concerns/challenges:

Addressing clouds, flurry potential, and temperature trends through tonight.

Details:

Really, not a whole lot to talk about as high pressure slowly builds further south into the area today and tonight. Expect lake generated clouds and scattered flurries/light snow showers to gradually come to an end this morning as lake aggregate surface trough gets punted southwest/diminishes with Canadian high pressure building further south into the region. Expect skies to trend to partly to mostly sunny later this morning and afternoon, with perhaps more lake clouds generating again tonight as a very subtle wave and attendant surge of some synoptic moisture contribution drop southeast. May even again see a few flurries/very light snow showers, but definitely nothing impactful. Otherwise, north to northwest winds will continue to usher in a colder airmass. Expect highs today to run a few degrees below normal, topping out in the middle 20s to lower 30s. Low tonight will drop into the upper single digits and teens for most areas, with a bit "warmer" readings near the Lake Michigan coast of northwest lower Michigan.

SHORT TERM. (Friday through Saturday) Issued at 308 AM EST Thu Mar 4 2021

High Impact Weather Potential: Minimal .

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast:

As of Friday morning . troughing will still be lingering over the northeastern US/eastern Canada . lobbing another lobe of energy in our direction Friday into Saturday as a shortwave passes through the southern stream of the flow Meanwhile. ridging across the northern Plains will be further amplified . and finally begin to press eastward . as well-defined trough moves onto the Pacific coast late Friday into Saturday. Said trough will become less amplified as it moves inland . though still potent enough to boot the ridge axis eastward through the end of the period . leaving the Great Lakes in a favorable position for surface high pressure Saturday night into Sunday morning.

Primary Forecast Concerns: weak LES chances Friday and perhaps Saturday . cold temps Saturday night .

Friday morning may see a few flakes flying around . as some weak mid- level synoptic moisture may be present at the same time as a weak surface trough scrapes through the eastern Great Lakes. Could be that it's some LES nonsense assisted by the front/shortwave energy aloft moving through. Additional weak LES signals appear Friday night into Saturday, when another weak surface trough drops through the region . this time ahead of temps aloft approaching -11 or -12C, especially the farther east you go, nearer to the core of the coldest air. There could be some synoptic moisture associated with the second surface trough/cold front, though there is some uncertainty in exactly how close to us that will get. Even so . surface high pressure in the vicinity could be a detriment to LES potential as it could lend to drying of the mid and low-levels. Will keep PoPs basically unmentionable for now . though wouldn't be surprised attm if later shifts ended up increasing PoPs for Saturday morning along the Lake Huron coast and Eastern Upper . unless things change in the coming model runs.

Looks like sort of a series of these little surface troughs swings through Friday into Saturday . which is of some note and/or concern as each successive trough reinforces northerly flow and advects drier low-level air into the region as strong mid-level subsidence over high pressure also enters the scene, particularly Saturday night. With the high pressure moving nearly directly overhead as upper-level ridging slowly moves eastward . would not be surprised to see winds become quite light late Saturday into Saturday night . potentially with minimal cloud cover over whatever snowpack is left. Some MOS guidance is quite cold across the area Saturday night (single digits). Would not be surprised to see temps fall below current consensus forecast . as the dayshift noted as well. Will therefore plan to keep inherited "Saturday Night Shiver" min T forecast.

LONG TERM. (Saturday night through Wednesday) Issued at 308 AM EST Thu Mar 4 2021

High Impact Weather Potential: Minimal attm . but stay tuned .

After a chilly start to Sunday . should see temperatures rebound as cold air aloft pulls away with plentiful mid-level dry air in the region as ridge axis moves nearer. Some question as to whether or not there could be precipitation chances late Sunday into Monday as a weak shortwave passes through the flow to our west. Should see at least some warm advection with this system . cranking highs perhaps above normal for Monday, though will let later shifts work out the exact numbers. Looks like we then get into a ridge-east, trough-west pattern as a well-defined trough enters the scene stage left, on the West Coast of the US. There is some uncertainty in the exact evolution of things . but does look like there is some potential for an active system to cross the central US during the mid-week timeframe Definitely something to watch in the coming days. as we enter one of our big transition times of the year, when cold and warm air duke it out for control of the weather across the mid- latitudes.

If you sat through the end of this AFD, here's the extra scene at the end: one other thing to keep in mind going into early next week will be potential for snowmelt . as advertised southwesterly flow has potential to advect in warm, moist air . and perhaps snow-eater dewpoints above freezing (notwithstanding any rain that may fall with temps above freezing). This assumes things will go as planned . which we know rarely happens in weather forecasting, and life in general, for that matter . but thought it might be worth a mention given that current signals are indicating a warmer and more active weather pattern next week.

AVIATION. (For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night) Issued at 1156 PM EST Wed Mar 3 2021

Colder air continues to spill into northern Michigan and will lead to MVFR cloud cover across northern Lower Michigan through the overnight hours . and some light snow showers/flurries off Lake Huron into NE Lower Michigan.

On Thursday, drier air wedges down into northern Michigan and will scour out the MVFR cloud cover as we go through the day.

MARINE. Issued at 308 AM EST Thu Mar 4 2021

More of the same with north to northwest winds, at times gusty, continuing through the remainder of the week. Once again, will likely see small craft advisory producing wind gusts on portions of northern Lake Huron tonight, with more widespread small craft conditions expected Friday into Friday night.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . NONE. LH . SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY from 5 PM this afternoon to 5 AM EST Saturday for LHZ347-348. LM . NONE. LS . NONE.

NEAR TERM . mb SHORT TERM . FEF LONG TERM . FEF AVIATION . BA MARINE . mb

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
GTLM4 - Grand Traverse Light, MI	48 mi	90 min	N 19 G 22	32°F			1023.4 hPa
MACM4 - 9075080 - Mackinaw City, MI	75 mi	52 min	NNW 12 G 16	22°F	33°F		1021.7 hPa	14°F

Wind History for Mackinaw City, MI

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Last 24hr

W6 G9

W4

NW2

W5

NW4 G7

W4 G7

NW6 G10

NW7

NW9 G12

NW10 G15

NW12 G17

NW11 G15

NW12 G20

NW12 G17

NW10 G14

NW10 G15

NW9

W8 G13

NW8 G11

NW7 G11

N10 G16

N9 G13

NW9 G13

N11 G15

1 day ago

SW4

S4

S8

S9

S9 G12

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SW11 G17

SW18 G24

SW17 G22

SW14 G24

SW18 G24

SW16

SW10 G16

SW13 G19

SW18 G26

SW22 G35

SW17 G29

SW23 G34

SW18 G24

W14 G24

W14 G20

W13 G24

W7

W6

2 days ago

NW20 G28

NW17 G26

NW19 G27

NW18 G25

NW21 G29

NW15 G23

NW17 G30

NW16 G24

NW23 G30

NW20 G26

NW16 G21

NW11 G18

NW16 G23

NW13 G18

NW10 G17

NW12 G16

NW9 G16

W8 G15

W9 G12

W11 G17

W8 G13

W4

SW2

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Grayling, Grayling Army Airfield, MI	12 mi	72 min	NNW 6	10.00 mi	Light Snow	23°F	18°F	80%	1022.4 hPa
Bellaire, Antrim County Airport, MI	24 mi	75 min	N 5	10.00 mi	Overcast	28°F	19°F	69%	1022.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KGOV

Wind History from GOV (wind in knots)

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Last 24hr

W4

W4

W3

Calm

W3

W7

W4

W6

W5

N13 G18

NW11

NW11

NW9 G17

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N13

NW8

N8

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N12

NW6

NW8

1 day ago

Calm

Calm

S4

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SW6

SW13 G17

SW11 G17

SW13 G20

SW12 G21

SW14 G21

SW14 G19

SW11 G21

SW9 G16

SW10

SW10 G16

W7

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W9

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W7

W7

W3

W5

2 days ago

NW9 G18

NW14 G19

NW10 G20

NW11 G17

NW13 G18

NW16 G21

NW14 G26

NW19 G25

NW16 G25

NW16 G26

NW13 G23

NW15 G22

NW16 G26

NW12 G18

NW8

NW5

NW7

N8

NW3

NW3

Calm

Calm

Calm

Calm

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