Monday, November30, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Manistee Lake, MI

Version 3.4
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8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:50AMSunset 5:05PM Monday November 30, 2020 11:30 AM EST (16:30 UTC) Moonrise 5:20PMMoonset 8:05AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ323 Grand Traverse Bay South Of A Line Grand Traverse Light To Norwood Mi- 1023 Am Est Mon Nov 30 2020
.gale warning in effect through late Tuesday night...
Today..North wind 15 to 25 knots with gusts to around 35 knots. Numerous snow showers in the afternoon. Scattered showers through the day. Scattered snow showers in the afternoon. Waves 4 to 7 feet. Waves occasionally around 9 feet.
Tonight..North wind 15 to 25 knots with gusts to around 35 knots. Isolated snow showers. Waves 4 to 7 feet.
Tuesday..North wind 15 to 25 knots with gusts to around 35 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 5 to 8 feet.
Tuesday night..North wind 15 to 25 knots with gusts to around 35 knots. Mostly clear. Waves 4 to 7 feet. SEe the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.
LMZ323 Expires:202011302330;;629263 FZUS53 KAPX 301523 NSHAPX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Gaylord MI 1023 AM EST Mon Nov 30 2020 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lakes Huron... Michigan and Superior. Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LMZ323-302330-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Manistee Lake, MI
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location: 44.7, -84.94     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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FXUS63 KAPX 301522 AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 1022 AM EST Mon Nov 30 2020

UPDATE. Issued at 1008 AM EST Mon Nov 30 2020

North flow lake effect this morning, focused primarily around the Grand Traverse Bay region. Forecast soundings are less than impressive, with moisture struggling to reach the -10C isotherm and inversion heights around 5K. So continued light nuisance north flow lake effect snowshower activity this afternoon, with possibly even a touch of freezing drizzle at times given the limited moisture depth. Overall, minimal snow amounts with less than one inch expected. There also could be some light snow from Alpena southward along the immediate Lake Huron coast this afternoon on the western fringe of deeper moisture associated with surface low over the eastern lakes. Once again, snowfall amounts less than one inch.

A fairly tight gradient, so winds gusting 25-35 mph at times creating wind chills in the teens. Mainly cloudy skies with some clearing over eastern upper and potentially parts of inland northern lower.

NEAR TERM. (Today through Tonight) Issued at 227 AM EST Mon Nov 30 2020

Impactful weather: Minimal. Scattered light lake effect snow and possibly drizzle/freezing drizzle in northerly flow regimes. Maybe a little light system snow late tonight over far NE lower Michigan. Gusty with potential lakeshore flooding in portions of NW and NE lower Michigan,

Pattern synopsis and forecast:

A shortwave and associated sfc low pressure is the SE states is phasing with larger scale upper troughing over the western Great Lakes and Mississippi valley early this morning. This was resulting in fairly rapid deepening of a sfc low, which is working with deeper moisture and strong forcing from DPVA, theta-e convergence and double upper jet structure upper divergence. This scenario has resulted in an expansive area of rain/showers pushing up the eastern third of the country. Meanwhile, here in nrn Michigan, colder air has moved into the region, sparking scattered light lake effect precipitation in N/NW flow regimes. Most of this precipitation was snow, but there are chances for drizzle/freezing drizzle, as the depth of the low level moisture is having trouble reaching -10C for better ice activation.

The sfc low will continue to deepen and move northward through the eastern states, and the back edge of the aforementioned forcing tries to sneak into far NE lower tonight, possibly bringing some synoptic snow there. Otherwise, scattered snow showers will continue in north flow snowbelts, as winds veer a bit. Fcst soundings continue to look similar, with the depth of low level moisture having a difficult time reaching to -10C for good ice activation. This will lead to the potential for freezing drizzle at times. Very minimal snow amounts are expected, with the most favored area for snow in the GTV Bay area seeing no more than a few hundredths of an inch. The pressure gradient will be pretty tight through tonight, and this will lead to gusts of roughly 25 to 35 mph, which will likely bring some potential lakeshore flooding across much of NW lower and portions of NE lower. Skies will be mostly cloudy, but winds downsloping off of the higher terrain of Ontario, are likely to lead to some clearing across eastern upper and portions of far nrn lower Michigan.

High temperatures will be in the upper 20s to lower half of the 30s. Lows tonight will mostly range throughout the 20s.

SHORT TERM. (Tuesday through Wednesday) Issued at 227 AM EST Mon Nov 30 2020

High impact weather potential: Accumulating snow chances and gusty winds across far northeast lower Tuesday.

Pattern synopsis/forecast: By Tuesday morning, focus through the forecast period will revolve around vertically stacked low pressure that's expected to initially be positioned just north of Lake Ontario at the start of the period. As the system becomes increasingly vertically stacked through the day Tuesday, favorable advections into northern Michigan will gradually become cutoff and weaken with time before the system eventually departs towards James/Hudson Bay Tuesday night into Wednesday.

Primary forecast concerns/challenges: Snow amounts across northeast lower during the day Tuesday.

Primary focus through the forecast period will revolve around snow chances and resultant accumulation across far northwest lower during the day Tuesday in what remains a rather challenging forecast. While initial snow chances across this area likely arrive tonight, the best chance for snow will be Tuesday into early Tuesday night. As the entire parent low pressure system slows across southern Ontario, an embedded shortwave/speedmax is expected to pinwheel around the system's backside over the western Great Lakes region. Given favorable saturation in place, a period of increased mid-upper level ascent should aid in snow development along the Lake Huron shoreline, likely to be further enhanced by low-level northwest winds over the still relatively warm lake waters.

Despite increased confidence in snow development, there do remain some uncertainties. These primarily revolve around inland extent of snowfall, the level of lake enhancement across northeast lower and total accumulations. Forecast soundings continue to depict deep saturation along the Lake Huron shoreline through much of the day Tuesday into Tuesday evening in the presence of a ~4 kft deep DGZ, which should ultimately promote larger flake size and more efficient snowfall - assuming the near-surface layer remains saturated. However, the best forcing may be displayed east of this layer, which as has been mentioned, would work against realizing the full snowfall potential. Either way, it certainly looks as if at least a couple inches of snow is increasingly likely along the M-23 corridor across far eastern Presque Isle, Alpena and Alcona counties . with amounts tapering rather quickly with westward extent . generally an inch or less west of M-65. Wouldn't be surprised to see some localized higher amounts in locations that realize the best lake enhancement off of Lake Huron, which continues to look maximized during the daylight hours Tuesday, but hard to pinpoint those exact locations at this juncture.

Aside from snow, gusty winds are also expected to accompany this system. Gusts near the Lake Huron shoreline near 35 mph, combined with snow, certainly presents the risk of blowing and drifting snow, along with significant reductions in visibility, along with minor lakeshore flooding concerns.

Snow chances diminish Tuesday evening into the overnight hours leaving lots of sunshine for the entire region on Wednesday. High temperatures Tuesday expected be within a couple of degrees on either side of freezing before climbing several degrees on Wednesday.

LONG TERM. (Wednesday night through Sunday) Issued at 227 AM EST Mon Nov 30 2020

High impact weather potential: Minimal.

As the aforementioned system continues its departure towards James Bay Wednesday night, a second closed upper-level low is expected to dig from Canada into the southern plains by Wednesday night into Thursday. Current trends continue to suggest that this system's surface reflection slides well to our south through the Ohio Valley during the Thu night-Friday time frame while relatively higher surface pressure works its way into the region locally aiding to keep precip chances low through at least Friday night. Looking ahead to next weekend, yet another anomalously strong trough is expected to sag into the midsection of the CONUS, and while large uncertainty exists to the overall pattern evolution, this time frame would appear to the bring the next chance for precip to northern Michigan. Near to slightly above normal temperatures anticipated throughout the bulk of the long-term forecast period.

AVIATION. (For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning) Issued at 534 AM EST Mon Nov 30 2020

A deepening low pressure system will work up the eastern states today and tonight, while colder air and quite gusty northerly winds continue to result in scattered light lake effect snow for mainly TVC/MBL. Some reductions in VSBY is possible in the snow showers, mainly this morning, but CIGS will prevail as MVFR at all but PLN, where a return to VFR is likely today. Some light snow could return late tonight around APN.

MARINE. Issued at 227 AM EST Mon Nov 30 2020

A deepening low pressure system will work up the eastern states today and tonight, then tracks into Quebec Tuesday through Wednesday. This system will likely bring some rain and snow to Lake Huron and possibly the St. Mary's river system late tonight and Tuesday. Otherwise, scattered light lake effect is expected today and tonight. The pressure gradient will be fairly tight over this time, resulting in solid advisory and gale force winds over all nearshore waters, which look to persist through Wednesday. Drier and milder weather returns by Wednesday.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . LAKESHORE FLOOD ADVISORY until 7 AM EST Tuesday for MIZ018-020- 021-024>026-031-099. LH . GALE WATCH from Tuesday morning through late Tuesday night for LHZ345-346. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 7 AM EST Tuesday for LHZ345-346. GALE WARNING until 6 AM EST Wednesday for LHZ347>349. LM . GALE WATCH from Tuesday morning through late Tuesday night for LMZ341. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 7 AM EST Tuesday for LMZ341. GALE WARNING until 6 AM EST Wednesday for LMZ323-342-344>346. LS . GALE WATCH from Tuesday morning through late Tuesday night for LSZ321-322. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 7 AM EST Tuesday for LSZ321-322.

UPDATE . JK NEAR TERM . SMD SHORT TERM . MG LONG TERM . MG AVIATION . SMD MARINE . SMD


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
GTLM4 - Grand Traverse Light, MI 48 mi50 min NNE 24 G 29 37°F 1015.9 hPa
MACM4 - 9075080 - Mackinaw City, MI 75 mi42 min N 14 G 24 41°F1013.7 hPa

Wind History for Mackinaw City, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Grayling, Grayling Army Airfield, MI12 mi92 minN 11 G 199.00 miOvercast28°F23°F82%1013.3 hPa
Bellaire, Antrim County Airport, MI24 mi35 minN 7 G 1410.00 miOvercast32°F23°F69%1013.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KGOV

Wind History from GOV (wind in knots)
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2 days agoW7W7W5W5W5W6W8NW7W5W6W4W4W5W4W6W6W5W5W6W6W7W7W7W12
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.