Marine Forecasts

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Manistee Lake, MI

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Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI

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Fxus63 kapx 171101 afdapx area forecast discussion national weather service gaylord mi 701 am edt Sat aug 17 2019 Near term (today through tonight) issued at 427 am edt Sat aug 17 2019 Early clouds fog should give way to more Sun later... high impact weather potential... Minimal. Pattern synopsis forecast: midnight surface composite analysis shows a weak 1008mb low center over northern green bay with a cold front arcing back to the southwest into northern il southeast ia. Weak bubble of high pressure was located behind the front along the mn ia border. Water vapor imagery shows several vorticity centers embedded within a couple of dynamic PV anomalies stretching from far northern ontario south southwest into wi northern ia. Along this same PV axis that stretches back into NE sd is another small disturbance over south central sd. Axis of low level moisture (0- 1km mixing ratio >13g kg) across ks along the mo ia border into il northwest in... Narrow low level theta-e ridge extends northward along the lake michigan shoreline. This instability axis interacting with short wave energy crossing lake michigan pushing a line of showers thunderstorms across parts of eastern upper northeast lower michigan early this morning. Area of st starting to expand across central eastern upper and lake superior. Short wave trough and associated cold front expected to cross lower michigan this morning... With a little weak short wave ridging in its wake this afternoon. Disturbance over sd early this morning expected to cross northern lower tonight... With increasing southerly low level flow warm advection into the upper great lakes ahead of a strong short wave trough digging into the northern plains. Primary forecast concerns: initial area of showers east of the i-75 corridor exiting quickly stage right... Most of this activity will be long gone by sunrise. Low clouds will probably continue to increase in coverage... Can't rule out some drizzle across the straits region south into the higher terrain of northern lower this morning. But the trend should be toward more sunshine this afternoon as existing clouds mix into a CU deck. Tonight... Combination of approaching cold front and increasing isentropic ascent along developing low level jet likely to fire off another MCS over the midwest (probably somewhere over the eastern portions sd ne... Southern mn western ia). Northern fringes of this activity may try to push into western lower early Sunday morning... Though the tendency may be for organized convection to propagate a little south of east (and perhaps away from the forecast area). Some more fog st possible especially the farther north you go. Short term (Sunday through Monday) issued at 427 am edt Sat aug 17 2019 high impact weather potential: thunderstorms possible Sunday and Sunday night... None expected to become severe. Pattern synopsis and forecast: a cold front associated with a low pressure system over james bay will sweep through the great lakes region Sunday night. Ahead of said cold front warm air advection precipitation will begin Sunday morning. Pwats will gradually increase as southwesterly winds advect

gulf moisture into the forecast area. Forecast soundings prog about 400-500 j kg MLCAPE Sunday, which gives way to the possibility of thunderstorms. 0-6km bulk shear values of only 20-30kts and lapse rates of only around 5 c km will limit any storms that do develop to become severe. Main threat will be heavy rain and frequent lightning, as forecast soundings have very skinny CAPE profiles. South to southwesterly winds will increase throughout the day Sunday as aforementioned cold front approaches, with some gusts near 20-25 mph possible. Winds will become northwesterly Sunday night through Monday morning, but be rather light, as surface high pressure builds into the great lakes. This high pressure will maintain a precipitation free Monday and Tuesday, with daytime highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s. Low temperatures will be in the low to mid 50s. Skies will clear from northwest to southeast Monday and remain mostly clear through much of Tuesday. Long term (Monday night through Friday) issued at 427 am edt Sat aug 17 2019 high impact weather potential... None is expected. The long term models are in agreement with this period mostly being under surface high pressure in zonal flow... With the exception of Tuesday night, when models show a very weak cold front and associated moisture from another low pressure system near james bay sweeping through the great lakes region. This may fire off some showers and rumbles of thunder, but surface high pressure and drier air immediately slide in behind the departing boundary and diminishes rain chances for the rest of the forecast period. Temperatures will cool Wednesday, only reaching into the low to mid 70s for most, and even cooler Thursday, with some locations possibly not even reaching 70. Temperatures are expected to moderate a bit each day after. Aviation (for the 12z tafs through 12z Sunday morning) issued at 658 am edt Sat aug 17 2019 period of MVFR conditions this morning (ifr at mbl) will gradually improve toVFR by early afternoon (though will likely be at mbl later this morning). Marine Issued at 427 am edt Sat aug 17 2019 not much wind or wave activity to deal with in the near term... Gradient may be light enough to support some minimally intrusive lake breeze development this afternoon on lake huron and the southeast shore of the upper peninsula. Winds will begin to become more southerly overnight and increase into Sunday. Some marginally small craft conditions possible on lake michigan. Apx watches warnings advisories Mi... None. Lh... None. Lm... None. Ls... None. Near term... Jpb short term... Tl long term... Tl aviation... Jpb marine... Jpb

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
GTLM4 - Grand Traverse Light, MI	48 mi	55 min	NNW 12 G 13	64°F			1009.8 hPa
45022	49 mi	25 min	NW 14 G 16	67°F	69°F	3 ft	1010.4 hPa	65°F
MACM4 - 9075080 - Mackinaw City, MI	75 mi	53 min	E 2.9 G 2.9	65°F	69°F		1009.5 hPa

Wind History for Mackinaw City, MI

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Grayling, Grayling Army Airfield, MI	12 mi	37 min	WSW 4	10.00 mi	Overcast	63°F	62°F	98%	1010.8 hPa
Bellaire, Antrim County Airport, MI	24 mi	39 min	N 0	10.00 mi	Overcast	68°F	65°F	90%	1009.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KGOV

Wind History from GOV (wind in knots)

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Weather Map and Satellite Images

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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

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Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (8,2,3,4)

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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI

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Disclaimer: The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.