Sunrise 6:46 AM   Sunset 8:29 PM Moonrise 3:22 PM   Moonset 4:20 AM

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LMZ323 Grand Traverse Bay South Of A Line Grand Traverse Light To Norwood Mi- 1003 Pm Edt Thu Apr 18 2024
.small craft advisory in effect from Friday afternoon through Friday evening - .
Overnight - West wind 5 to 10 knots. Rain likely early in the evening, then chance of rain after midnight. Waves 2 feet or less. Friday - West wind 15 to 25 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 2 to 4 feet. Friday night - West wind 15 to 25 knots. Chance of snow showers. Waves 2 to 3 feet. Saturday - West wind 10 to 20 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
see the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.

LMZ300
No data

FXUS63 KAPX 190345 AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 1145 PM EDT Thu Apr 18 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Rain comes in and moves out tonight.

- Colder/breezy Friday with instability showers.

- Snow showers possible in some areas late Friday night into Saturday morning.

- Rain shower chances next Monday night and Tuesday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Amplified large scale pattern across North America and stretching back across the Pacific. One short wave trough moving away from the Great Lakes today with another upper low over Saskatchewan/Manitoba that makes up the eastern portion of a northeast Pacific omega block. Low/mid level cold air push across the northern Plains/midwest/upper Great Lakes...850mb temperatures at or below -4C advecting east across the Dakotas/ Minnesota. Early afternoon surface map shows a broad occluded low over northwest Ontario...cold/occluded front arcs south across western Upper/Wisconsin/eastern Iowa.
Widespread clouds northern Michigan at mid afternoon...a combination of diurnally enhanced Sc and Ac advancing in from the southwest along with some mid level radar returns across Wisconsin and central Lower Michigan.

Central Canadian upper low will propagate east through Friday...
passing north of the Great Lakes but there will be some increasing PV spreading across the forecast area Friday. Associated cold/occluded front crosses Michigan overnight...with deep layer cold air advection in its wake.

Primary Forecast Concerns:

Rain comes in and moves out tonight: Axis of deeper moisture and large scale forcing/frontogenesis ahead of the cold/occluded front is expected to bring widespread rain chances to northern Michigan tonight
Should be a quick hitting event
window for precipitation looks to be about 6-8 hours though there may be some drizzle on the back end with the front itself. Stability will be weak across northern Michigan but probably not enough for thunder as better instability will be over southern Lower and points south tonight.
Highest rainfall potential should be along-east of a CAD-APN line where rainfall totals by Friday morning of 0.25-0.50+ expected (the 0.50+ should be closer to Saginaw Bay).

Colder/breezy Friday with instability showers: Behind the occluded front winds will increase from the west and with cold advection/ isentropic downsloping and an increased mixed layer depth should be able to tap into better momentum aloft. Probability for wind gusts to 30 mph in the 40-50 percent range across northern Lower and through the Straits region. Definitely looking at Small Craft Advisories within most if not all nearshore marine zones. As for precipitation chances...cold advection will increase instability across the forecast area but upper level cold pool will settle across Lake Superior allowing for the potential for deeper diurnal convective clouds across eastern Upper and the Straits region Friday afternoon. TQ index values around 17 suggest potential for shallow convective development...some indications of enhanced convergence across eastern Upper won't hurt the cause either. Could see some graupel/snow mixed in given colder mid level temperatures especially in heavier bursts of precipitation. Not sure how far south into northern Lower to pull precip chances with indications of a shallower convective layer/lower inversion heights. For now have kept PoPs north of the M-68 corridor.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
A broad long wave trough covering much of southwest Canada will track slowly to the east over the next couple of days. Meanwhile another trough will drop south out of north central Canada and merge with the first trough and set up shop across northeast Canada for a few days. This is all expected to translate into a period of breezy and mostly below normal temperatures across northern Michigan. In addition, weak disturbances moving through the flow will bring occasional chances for showers Friday night into this weekend. It still looks cold enough for the showers to fall in the form of snow across parts of eastern upper and the higher terrain of northern lower later Friday night into Saturday morning (targeting west northwest favored locals). A light coating of the white stuff would not be a surprise. Lastly, a Pacific trough then brings rain shower chances next Monday night and Tuesday. No precipitation is expected Monday, Wednesday and Thursday.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
A cold front will sweep thru Michigan overnight. Widespread rain will diminish from west to east and eventually come to an end across Northern Lower Michigan by daybreak. Scattered shower activity will linger across Eastern Upper Michigan into Friday. Prevailing conditions will be low VFR/MVFR for the next 24 hours. Surface winds will become westerly at around 10 kts overnight behind the cold front and will then strengthen to 15 to 25 kts on Friday.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from noon Friday to midnight EDT Friday night for LHZ345>349.
Small Craft Advisory from noon Friday to midnight EDT Friday night for LMZ323-341-342-344>346.
Small Craft Advisory from noon Friday to 8 PM EDT Saturday for LSZ321.

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