Thursday, March4, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Manistee Lake, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 7:08AMSunset 6:33PM Thursday March 4, 2021 4:09 AM EST (09:09 UTC) Moonrise 12:06AMMoonset 10:10AM Illumination 69% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 20 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ323 Grand Traverse Bay South Of A Line Grand Traverse Light To Norwood Mi- 306 Am Est Thu Mar 4 2021
Today..North wind 10 to 15 knots. Gusts up to 20 knots early in the morning. Scattered flurries in the morning. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
Tonight..North wind 10 to 15 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday..Northwest wind 15 to 20 knots with gusts to around 25 knots. Partly Sunny. Waves 3 to 5 feet.
Friday night..North wind 10 to 20 knots with gusts to around 25 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 3 to 5 feet. SEe the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.
LMZ323 Expires:202103041615;;446334 FZUS53 KAPX 040806 NSHAPX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Gaylord MI 306 AM EST Thu Mar 4 2021 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lakes Huron... Michigan and Superior. Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LMZ323-041615-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Manistee Lake, MI
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location: 44.7, -84.94     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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FXUS63 KAPX 040810 AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 310 AM EST Thu Mar 4 2021

NEAR TERM. (Today through Tonight) Issued at 308 AM EST Thu Mar 4 2021

. Cooler weather returns .

High impact weather potential: None.

Pattern synopsis/forecast:

Mid and upper level flow regime continues to amplify across NOAM early this morning . consisting of building Intermountain West/High Plains ridging and deepening troughing across the northeast Conus up into the Canadian Maritimes. Northwest flow between these features centered right across the Great Lakes, allowing cooler Canadian air to drop through the region. Otherwise, another uneventful night, with just some lake clouds and scattered flurried dotting the northern Michigan landscape.

Mid and upper level features will continue to amplify right through the end of this week . essentially remaining in-place as they do so. Large area of Canadian high pressure will slowly drop south in north flow along ridge/trough interface. This will continue to produce mainly dry and seasonably cool conditions across the Northwoods.

Primary forecast concerns/challenges:

Addressing clouds, flurry potential, and temperature trends through tonight.

Details:

Really, not a whole lot to talk about as high pressure slowly builds further south into the area today and tonight. Expect lake generated clouds and scattered flurries/light snow showers to gradually come to an end this morning as lake aggregate surface trough gets punted southwest/diminishes with Canadian high pressure building further south into the region. Expect skies to trend to partly to mostly sunny later this morning and afternoon, with perhaps more lake clouds generating again tonight as a very subtle wave and attendant surge of some synoptic moisture contribution drop southeast. May even again see a few flurries/very light snow showers, but definitely nothing impactful. Otherwise, north to northwest winds will continue to usher in a colder airmass. Expect highs today to run a few degrees below normal, topping out in the middle 20s to lower 30s. Low tonight will drop into the upper single digits and teens for most areas, with a bit "warmer" readings near the Lake Michigan coast of northwest lower Michigan.

SHORT TERM. (Friday through Saturday) Issued at 308 AM EST Thu Mar 4 2021

High Impact Weather Potential: Minimal .

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast:

As of Friday morning . troughing will still be lingering over the northeastern US/eastern Canada . lobbing another lobe of energy in our direction Friday into Saturday as a shortwave passes through the southern stream of the flow Meanwhile. ridging across the northern Plains will be further amplified . and finally begin to press eastward . as well-defined trough moves onto the Pacific coast late Friday into Saturday. Said trough will become less amplified as it moves inland . though still potent enough to boot the ridge axis eastward through the end of the period . leaving the Great Lakes in a favorable position for surface high pressure Saturday night into Sunday morning.

Primary Forecast Concerns: weak LES chances Friday and perhaps Saturday . cold temps Saturday night .

Friday morning may see a few flakes flying around . as some weak mid- level synoptic moisture may be present at the same time as a weak surface trough scrapes through the eastern Great Lakes. Could be that it's some LES nonsense assisted by the front/shortwave energy aloft moving through. Additional weak LES signals appear Friday night into Saturday, when another weak surface trough drops through the region . this time ahead of temps aloft approaching -11 or -12C, especially the farther east you go, nearer to the core of the coldest air. There could be some synoptic moisture associated with the second surface trough/cold front, though there is some uncertainty in exactly how close to us that will get. Even so . surface high pressure in the vicinity could be a detriment to LES potential as it could lend to drying of the mid and low-levels. Will keep PoPs basically unmentionable for now . though wouldn't be surprised attm if later shifts ended up increasing PoPs for Saturday morning along the Lake Huron coast and Eastern Upper . unless things change in the coming model runs.

Looks like sort of a series of these little surface troughs swings through Friday into Saturday . which is of some note and/or concern as each successive trough reinforces northerly flow and advects drier low-level air into the region as strong mid-level subsidence over high pressure also enters the scene, particularly Saturday night. With the high pressure moving nearly directly overhead as upper-level ridging slowly moves eastward . would not be surprised to see winds become quite light late Saturday into Saturday night . potentially with minimal cloud cover over whatever snowpack is left. Some MOS guidance is quite cold across the area Saturday night (single digits). Would not be surprised to see temps fall below current consensus forecast . as the dayshift noted as well. Will therefore plan to keep inherited "Saturday Night Shiver" min T forecast.

LONG TERM. (Saturday night through Wednesday) Issued at 308 AM EST Thu Mar 4 2021

High Impact Weather Potential: Minimal attm . but stay tuned .

After a chilly start to Sunday . should see temperatures rebound as cold air aloft pulls away with plentiful mid-level dry air in the region as ridge axis moves nearer. Some question as to whether or not there could be precipitation chances late Sunday into Monday as a weak shortwave passes through the flow to our west. Should see at least some warm advection with this system . cranking highs perhaps above normal for Monday, though will let later shifts work out the exact numbers. Looks like we then get into a ridge-east, trough-west pattern as a well-defined trough enters the scene stage left, on the West Coast of the US. There is some uncertainty in the exact evolution of things . but does look like there is some potential for an active system to cross the central US during the mid-week timeframe Definitely something to watch in the coming days. as we enter one of our big transition times of the year, when cold and warm air duke it out for control of the weather across the mid- latitudes.

If you sat through the end of this AFD, here's the extra scene at the end: one other thing to keep in mind going into early next week will be potential for snowmelt . as advertised southwesterly flow has potential to advect in warm, moist air . and perhaps snow-eater dewpoints above freezing (notwithstanding any rain that may fall with temps above freezing). This assumes things will go as planned . which we know rarely happens in weather forecasting, and life in general, for that matter . but thought it might be worth a mention given that current signals are indicating a warmer and more active weather pattern next week.

AVIATION. (For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night) Issued at 1156 PM EST Wed Mar 3 2021

Colder air continues to spill into northern Michigan and will lead to MVFR cloud cover across northern Lower Michigan through the overnight hours . and some light snow showers/flurries off Lake Huron into NE Lower Michigan.

On Thursday, drier air wedges down into northern Michigan and will scour out the MVFR cloud cover as we go through the day.

MARINE. Issued at 308 AM EST Thu Mar 4 2021

More of the same with north to northwest winds, at times gusty, continuing through the remainder of the week. Once again, will likely see small craft advisory producing wind gusts on portions of northern Lake Huron tonight, with more widespread small craft conditions expected Friday into Friday night.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . NONE. LH . SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY from 5 PM this afternoon to 5 AM EST Saturday for LHZ347-348. LM . NONE. LS . NONE.

NEAR TERM . mb SHORT TERM . FEF LONG TERM . FEF AVIATION . BA MARINE . mb


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
GTLM4 - Grand Traverse Light, MI 48 mi90 min N 19 G 22 32°F 1023.4 hPa
MACM4 - 9075080 - Mackinaw City, MI 75 mi52 min NNW 12 G 16 22°F 33°F1021.7 hPa14°F

Wind History for Mackinaw City, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Grayling, Grayling Army Airfield, MI12 mi72 minNNW 610.00 miLight Snow23°F18°F80%1022.4 hPa
Bellaire, Antrim County Airport, MI24 mi75 minN 510.00 miOvercast28°F19°F69%1022.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KGOV

Wind History from GOV (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW4W4W3CalmW3W7W4W6W5N13
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1 day agoCalmCalmS4S6S7SW6SW13
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2 days agoNW9
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NW8NW5NW7N8NW3NW3CalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for
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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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