Saturday, December14, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Manistee Lake, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 8:02AMSunset 5:04PM Saturday December 14, 2019 7:28 AM EST (12:28 UTC) Moonrise 7:34PMMoonset 10:24AM Illumination 92% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ323 Grand Traverse Bay South Of A Line Grand Traverse Light To Norwood Mi- 315 Am Est Sat Dec 14 2019
.small craft advisory in effect from this afternoon through Sunday morning...
Today..Northwest wind 5 to 10 knots with gusts to around 20 knots rising to 15 to 20 knots with gusts to around 25 knots early in the evening. Chance of drizzle and freezing drizzle, along with a chance of afternoon snow. Patchy fog in the morning. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
Tonight..Northwest wind 10 to 20 knots with gusts to around 30 knots. Numerous snow showers. Waves 3 to 5 feet.
Sunday..Northwest wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 25 knots. Chance of snow showers. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Sunday night..Southwest wind 5 to 10 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less. SEe the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.
LMZ323 Expires:201912141615;;758430 FZUS53 KAPX 140815 NSHAPX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Gaylord MI 315 AM EST Sat Dec 14 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lakes Huron... Michigan and Superior. Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LMZ323-141615-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Manistee Lake, MI
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location: 44.7, -84.94     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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FXUS63 KAPX 141052 AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 552 AM EST Sat Dec 14 2019

NEAR TERM. (Today through Tonight) Issued at 255 AM EST Sat Dec 14 2019

Impactful weather: Areas of drizzle, freezing drizzle and light fog changing to light lake effect snow showers tonight, with minimal accumulations.

Pattern synopsis and forecast:

Weak low pressure and a slowly eastward-moving cold front was laid out across the western Great Lakes still early this morning, underneath upper level troughing with several weak perturbations in the flow. This has resulted in areas of drizzle, freezing drizzle and light fog in nrn Michigan, with still deep low level moisture not even flirting with -10C for ice introduction. Reflectivities on regional radars back to the west were falling as snow, where the low level air mass was colder. Even colder air was noticed further upstream, where the pressure gradient was also tightening behind the weak sfc low, and winds were becoming gusty out of the NW.

The weak sfc low and cold front will gradually move across nrn Michigan today, allowing for a decent chance at seeing at least a little bit of drizzle/freezing drizzle. Fcst soundings do not show the low level moist air getting into a cold enough air mass for ice introduction, and a changeover to lake effect snow showers until nightfall/this evening. The snow showers may get a boost this evening, at least to a small degree, as one of the better perturbations in the flow aloft, and it's associated bump up in atmospheric moisture, sweep across nrn lower Michigan. Inversion heights bump up to 6kft or so with this wave, before dropping to less than 5kft after it's passing. However, continued CAA will likely allow the light lake effect to persist through the night in the NW flow regimes, despite some atmospheric drying. Also, expect those gusty NW winds to kick in tonight.

High temperatures will mostly be in the low to mid 30s again, with lows getting down in the 10F to 20F range most areas tonight.

SHORT TERM. (Sunday through Monday) Issued at 255 AM EST Sat Dec 14 2019

High Impact Weather Potential . Minimal.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast . Sunday, NW LES flow backs to the West and the amounts of snow begin to diminish as the atmosphere dries out. However, the snow doesn't necessarily end, as the 850 mb temperatures remain around or colder than -10C over N Lake Michigan. This continues the LES snow, but it should remain minor as the snow looks light from the less than 50% rh in the 850-700 mb layer and the still moving direction. This remains through the night. Monday, the 850 mb temperatures warm enough that the LES looks to stop. However, the southern system is now south of the Ohio river on the GFs and ECMWF. The NAM and SREF (03z)still shows the sfc low far enough north that the precipitation moves into N Lower. The pops are still on the low side, never getting above 50%. However, Monday night, a northern branch feature begins to push into the region and with cold 850 mb temperatures, so that the LES machine begins to start back up. with light to moderate snow possible.

Primary Forecast Concerns . The sfc low that is near the Ohio River, has come in farther south on the GFS and ECMWF than previous runs, with the NAM/SREF still holding onto the idea that it will be farther north. With the better idea of the GFS and ECMWF it is possible that we don't get any precipitation, until the northern branch feature drops into the Upper Great Lakes, and begins the LES with the sub -10c 850 mb air. If the Moisture in the layer (850-700 mb) continues above 70%, then some of these bands could be moderate, instead of light.

LONG TERM. (Monday night through Friday) Issued at 255 AM EST Sat Dec 14 2019

High Impact Weather Potential . Minimal.

Extended (Tuesday through Friday) . Tuesday and Wednesday continue the LES, although, the snow looks to diminishes on Wednesday as a ridge moves through the forecast area. On the backside of the ridge overnight, a warm front moves through the region into Wednesday night and out of the region by Thursday morning. High pressure then builds into the region on Thursday and lasts through Friday on the ECMWF. The GFS, however, has an occluded system with the stacked low over Lake Superior, by Friday evening. This would bring light snow over the region through Saturday morning.

AVIATION. (For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning) Issued at 551 AM EST Sat Dec 14 2019

Weak low pressure and a cold front will cross nrn Michigan today, leading potentially more light fog and periods of drizzle. Cold advection will turn any precipitation over to snow around nightfall in NW lower, with lesser chances at APN. NW winds will also be turning more brisk and gusty tonight, as the pressure gradient tightens. The lake effect is expected to be light, with minimal accumulations of around a half inch tonight in NW lower. Liquid to snow ratios will fall from around 15:1-16:1 this evening to 18:1- 20:1 late in the TAF period.

MARINE. Issued at 255 AM EST Sat Dec 14 2019

Weak low pressure and a cold front will cross the region today, resulting in some potential spotty drizzle, in weak winds. Cold advection sets in tonight, with the pressure gradient tightening, and NW winds ramping up into advisory speeds and continuing into Sunday. Winds back around more southerly later Sunday through Sunday night, and weaken, as higher pressure arrives.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . NONE. LH . SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY from 5 PM this afternoon to 3 PM EST Sunday for LHZ347>349. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY from 5 PM this afternoon to 5 AM EST Sunday for LHZ345-346. LM . SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY from 5 PM this afternoon to 11 AM EST Sunday for LMZ323-342-344>346. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY from 5 PM this afternoon to 5 AM EST Sunday for LMZ341. LS . SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY from 10 PM this evening to 5 AM EST Sunday for LSZ322. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY from 5 PM this afternoon to 11 AM EST Sunday for LSZ321.

NEAR TERM . SMD SHORT TERM . JL LONG TERM . JL AVIATION . SMD MARINE . SMD


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
GTLM4 - Grand Traverse Light, MI 48 mi48 min NNW 8.9 G 11 37°F 1006.4 hPa
MACM4 - 9075080 - Mackinaw City, MI 75 mi58 min NW 5.1 G 6 32°F 37°F1004.9 hPa28°F

Wind History for Mackinaw City, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Grayling, Grayling Army Airfield, MI12 mi30 minN 06.00 miFog/Mist32°F29°F93%1005.8 hPa
Bellaire, Antrim County Airport, MI24 mi33 minN 02.00 miFog/Mist32°F31°F97%1005.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KGOV

Wind History from GOV (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS4S3S5S5S5SE7S4S5S3CalmCalmCalm--S4S4CalmS4CalmCalmCalmNW3CalmNW4Calm
1 day agoS3E4SE9SE11SE10SE11SE14
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.