Marine Forecasts

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Manistee Lake, MI

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Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 311846 AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 246 PM EDT Sun May 31 2020

UPDATE. Issued at 1124 AM EDT Sun May 31 2020

Morning composite analysis reveals a somewhat amplified upper level pattern across the CONUS with N-S ridging through the Rockies and downstream troughing centered along ~70W. Short-wave energy is sliding southeastward through Lake Superior kicking off a compact area of cloud cover and spotty showers through the eastern U.P. down into the tip of the mitt and northern Lake Huron. Meanwhile, surface high pressure is centered from central Wisconsin across central Lower Michigan providing lots of clear skies for the rest of Lower Michigan.

A fairly quiet afternoon/evening expected overall. Aforementioned short-wave and associated clouds/spotty showers will continue to slide southeastward through the eastern U.P. and tip of the mitt/NE Lower Michigan over the next several hours. Partly sunny to occasionally cloudy skies anticipated for those areas through mid afternoon or so (along with a small chance of showers) while sunny skies prevail further south Rebounding temps. warming into the 60s for most except cooler near the lakes, but still a little below normal for the last day of May.

NEAR TERM. (Today through Tonight) Issued at 356 AM EDT Sun May 31 2020

Impactful weather: Minimal/none.

Pattern synopsis and forecast:

A fairly amplified pattern out there early this morning, with upper troughing extending from eastern Canada down through the eastern conus, while ridging was being pushed toward the central Canadian provinces down into the srn Plains. Strong NW flow aloft was over the Great Lakes, with sfc high pressure moving through the region, along with very dry air. This has resulted in clear skies across nrn Michigan. There was a shortwave trough driving down this NW flow toward the nrn Great Lakes, which is verified by clouds and some light showers working their way into nrn Lake Superior. Temperatures ranged from the upper 20s to the lower 40s attm. The coldest temperatures were in the typically colder low-lying areas, obviously protected from any wind. Based on these readings, current frost/freeze conditions will largely be in these type areas.

The cold temperatures will rebound pretty quickly after sunrise with good sunshine in most areas. However, the aforementioned shortwave an associated clouds will be heading into much of eastern upper Michigan and northeast lower into early afternoon, before departing late in the day. The chance of seeing a few light showers are only expected to scrape much of eastern upper, best chance around the Sault and the nrn St. Mary's river system, closer to the best DPVA and in the deepest moisture. Clouds and any light shower should be out diminishing later this afternoon and this evening, with drier air returning skies to pretty much clear, outside of maybe some high level cirrus possibly moving in late tonight toward daybreak.

Highs today will be a little bit warmer today, mostly in the low to mid 60s. Lows tonight will largely be in the lower half of the 40s.

SHORT TERM. (Monday through Tuesday) Issued at 356 AM EDT Sun May 31 2020

High Impact Weather Potential: Thunderstorms chances.

Pattern Synopsis:

Amplified longwave troughing will pivot off of the New England coast as upper-level ridging encompasses much of the central CONUS. Mainly NW upper-level flow will reside overhead into midweek with an embedded shortwave likely to move through the Great Lakes Monday evening/night. At the surface, high pressure over the Mid-Atlantic will slide off the coast by Tuesday as a relatively weak cyclone should move across southern Canada south of Hudson Bay. An associated cold front looks to sweep through northern MI Tuesday night.

Forecast/Details:

Temperatures across the region will keep warming up through early week with the next chance for rain/thunder coming late Monday evening through Monday night. The aforementioned shortwave looks to rotate through the main flow and over the state Monday evening, providing favorable ascent aloft to help spark precipitation. The main chance for any stronger storms will come Monday night as relatively steep lapse rates are advected into the area by the W/NW flow aloft. While the boundary layer will certainly be stable overnight, this is expected to create a swath of elevated instability (around 1,000-1,500 J/kg MUCAPE) mainly south of M-32 after midnight. This, when combined with 0-6km bulk shear in excess of 40 kts and veering low-level wind profiles, could support a few stronger storms if any initiate/persist behind the initial round of showers that pass through the area in the evening before elevated instability arrives. Timing concerns with this shortwave make for a difficult forecast, even heading through Tuesday.

Confidence in appreciable upper-level ascent being in place to help support storm initiation and maintenance isn't particularly high on Tuesday as this would rely on an embedded subtle shortwave/speed max moving through. However, recent model guidance suggests that a cold front could swing through northern Michigan in the Tuesday afternoon/early Wednesday AM timeframe. Precip/storms may initiate along this boundary as well as out ahead of it in the presence of any localized near-surface convergence. With this in mind, was still somewhat hesitant to put higher pops in the forecast. However, any storms would form in an environment characterized by MLCAPE of greater than 1,000 J/kg and 0-6km bulk shear of 40-50kts across northern lower MI. Despite forecast wind profiles being nearly unidirectional with height, thunder chances certainly would exist with any stronger storms that develop and a severe thunderstorm or two cannot be ruled out. Otherwise, highs are expected to get into the low 70s Monday afternoon before really warming up on Tuesday. Highs across northern lower are expected to reach into the low 80s, while highs in eastern upper look to be in the mid 70s.

LONG TERM. (Tuesday night through Saturday) Issued at 356 AM EDT Sun May 31 2020

High Impact Weather Potential: Potential lingering rain/thunder chances

A mainly zonal upper-level pattern is expected through the much of the long term as the jet looks to sit along the U.S. Canada border into the weekend. Aside from shortwaves/subtle speed maxima progressing through the main flow, the next main pattern shift will likely be when an anticipated cut-off upper-level low in the Pacific moves on shore sometime late in the period. At the surface, a relatively weak cyclone is expected to be moving away from the region and into the New England states on Wednesday, potentially sweeping a cold front through Michigan during that time. With a warm, moist airmass in place ahead of the boundary, rain and thunder chances are possible early Wednesday. However, a fair amount of uncertainty exists regarding rain/thunder chances through the remainder of next week. Highs look to be in the mid to upper 70s heading into the weekend, which would be around 5-10 degrees above normal. However, rain/thunder chances will largely depend on the strength of the aforementioned cold front, the degree of moisture return into the Great Lakes following its passage, and strength/timing of any embedded subtle forcing mechanisms in the main upper-level flow. Current confidence resides in a relatively dry airmass being in place heading into the weekend after the frontal the passage along to help keep precip chances low to round out the work week.

AVIATION. (For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon) Issued at 246 PM EDT Sun May 31 2020

. Solid VFR weather through the current TAF period .

Weak area of low pressure moving through the northern lakes region has/is producing SCT-BKN mid cloud cover across NE Lower Michigan and the tip of the mitt. This weak system (and associated cloud cover) exits the region through early evening. Meanwhile, high pressure across lower Michigan will drift southward into the Ohio Valley region through Monday. Increasing warm/moist advection on the backside of this system will eventually lead to shower development across the Upper Midwest on Monday with showers eventually spreading into northern Michigan later in the day Monday.

Until then, solid VFR conditions will prevail across northern Lower Michigan through tonight and likely through the day Monday, although mid level cloud cover will spread into the region through the day Monday. Winds subside to under 10 knots this evening but likely to increase with some gustiness on Monday.

MARINE. Issued at 356 AM EDT Sun May 31 2020

The pressure gradient remains relatively tight across the nrn nearshore waters attm, as high pressure is settling into the western Great Lakes. This will produce some low end advisory level wind speeds for several nearshore waters of Lakes Michigan and Huron today into very early this evening. The high pressure departs tonight, but leaves the gradient tight enough later Monday for more low end advisory level winds south of Grand Traverse Light in Lake Michigan, despite increasing overlake stability via warm advection. No showers expected until Monday afternoon and Monday night, and even a few thunderstorms will be possible.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . NONE. LH . SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 8 PM EDT this evening for LHZ345>347. LM . SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 8 PM EDT this evening for LMZ323-342- 344-345. LS . NONE.

UPDATE . BA NEAR TERM . SMD SHORT TERM . DJC LONG TERM . DJC AVIATION . BA MARINE . SMD

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
GTLM4 - Grand Traverse Light, MI	48 mi	74 min	WSW 21 G 26	55°F			1026.1 hPa
MACM4 - 9075080 - Mackinaw City, MI	75 mi	54 min	SW 19 G 25	56°F	50°F		1023 hPa (-1.8)	35°F

Wind History for Mackinaw City, MI

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NW11 G17

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Grayling, Grayling Army Airfield, MI	12 mi	1.9 hrs	W 7	10.00 mi	Fair	59°F	33°F	38%	1027 hPa
Bellaire, Antrim County Airport, MI	24 mi	59 min	W 5	10.00 mi	Fair	61°F	30°F	32%	1025.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KGOV

Wind History from GOV (wind in knots)

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NW8 G15

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Weather Map

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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East

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Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (14,3,4,5)

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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI

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