Marine Forecasts

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Manistee Lake, MI

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Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 301522 AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 1022 AM EST Mon Nov 30 2020

UPDATE. Issued at 1008 AM EST Mon Nov 30 2020

North flow lake effect this morning, focused primarily around the Grand Traverse Bay region. Forecast soundings are less than impressive, with moisture struggling to reach the -10C isotherm and inversion heights around 5K. So continued light nuisance north flow lake effect snowshower activity this afternoon, with possibly even a touch of freezing drizzle at times given the limited moisture depth. Overall, minimal snow amounts with less than one inch expected. There also could be some light snow from Alpena southward along the immediate Lake Huron coast this afternoon on the western fringe of deeper moisture associated with surface low over the eastern lakes. Once again, snowfall amounts less than one inch.

A fairly tight gradient, so winds gusting 25-35 mph at times creating wind chills in the teens. Mainly cloudy skies with some clearing over eastern upper and potentially parts of inland northern lower.

NEAR TERM. (Today through Tonight) Issued at 227 AM EST Mon Nov 30 2020

Impactful weather: Minimal. Scattered light lake effect snow and possibly drizzle/freezing drizzle in northerly flow regimes. Maybe a little light system snow late tonight over far NE lower Michigan. Gusty with potential lakeshore flooding in portions of NW and NE lower Michigan,

Pattern synopsis and forecast:

A shortwave and associated sfc low pressure is the SE states is phasing with larger scale upper troughing over the western Great Lakes and Mississippi valley early this morning. This was resulting in fairly rapid deepening of a sfc low, which is working with deeper moisture and strong forcing from DPVA, theta-e convergence and double upper jet structure upper divergence. This scenario has resulted in an expansive area of rain/showers pushing up the eastern third of the country. Meanwhile, here in nrn Michigan, colder air has moved into the region, sparking scattered light lake effect precipitation in N/NW flow regimes. Most of this precipitation was snow, but there are chances for drizzle/freezing drizzle, as the depth of the low level moisture is having trouble reaching -10C for better ice activation.

The sfc low will continue to deepen and move northward through the eastern states, and the back edge of the aforementioned forcing tries to sneak into far NE lower tonight, possibly bringing some synoptic snow there. Otherwise, scattered snow showers will continue in north flow snowbelts, as winds veer a bit. Fcst soundings continue to look similar, with the depth of low level moisture having a difficult time reaching to -10C for good ice activation. This will lead to the potential for freezing drizzle at times. Very minimal snow amounts are expected, with the most favored area for snow in the GTV Bay area seeing no more than a few hundredths of an inch. The pressure gradient will be pretty tight through tonight, and this will lead to gusts of roughly 25 to 35 mph, which will likely bring some potential lakeshore flooding across much of NW lower and portions of NE lower. Skies will be mostly cloudy, but winds downsloping off of the higher terrain of Ontario, are likely to lead to some clearing across eastern upper and portions of far nrn lower Michigan.

High temperatures will be in the upper 20s to lower half of the 30s. Lows tonight will mostly range throughout the 20s.

SHORT TERM. (Tuesday through Wednesday) Issued at 227 AM EST Mon Nov 30 2020

High impact weather potential: Accumulating snow chances and gusty winds across far northeast lower Tuesday.

Pattern synopsis/forecast: By Tuesday morning, focus through the forecast period will revolve around vertically stacked low pressure that's expected to initially be positioned just north of Lake Ontario at the start of the period. As the system becomes increasingly vertically stacked through the day Tuesday, favorable advections into northern Michigan will gradually become cutoff and weaken with time before the system eventually departs towards James/Hudson Bay Tuesday night into Wednesday.

Primary forecast concerns/challenges: Snow amounts across northeast lower during the day Tuesday.

Primary focus through the forecast period will revolve around snow chances and resultant accumulation across far northwest lower during the day Tuesday in what remains a rather challenging forecast. While initial snow chances across this area likely arrive tonight, the best chance for snow will be Tuesday into early Tuesday night. As the entire parent low pressure system slows across southern Ontario, an embedded shortwave/speedmax is expected to pinwheel around the system's backside over the western Great Lakes region. Given favorable saturation in place, a period of increased mid-upper level ascent should aid in snow development along the Lake Huron shoreline, likely to be further enhanced by low-level northwest winds over the still relatively warm lake waters.

Despite increased confidence in snow development, there do remain some uncertainties. These primarily revolve around inland extent of snowfall, the level of lake enhancement across northeast lower and total accumulations. Forecast soundings continue to depict deep saturation along the Lake Huron shoreline through much of the day Tuesday into Tuesday evening in the presence of a ~4 kft deep DGZ, which should ultimately promote larger flake size and more efficient snowfall - assuming the near-surface layer remains saturated. However, the best forcing may be displayed east of this layer, which as has been mentioned, would work against realizing the full snowfall potential. Either way, it certainly looks as if at least a couple inches of snow is increasingly likely along the M-23 corridor across far eastern Presque Isle, Alpena and Alcona counties . with amounts tapering rather quickly with westward extent . generally an inch or less west of M-65. Wouldn't be surprised to see some localized higher amounts in locations that realize the best lake enhancement off of Lake Huron, which continues to look maximized during the daylight hours Tuesday, but hard to pinpoint those exact locations at this juncture.

Aside from snow, gusty winds are also expected to accompany this system. Gusts near the Lake Huron shoreline near 35 mph, combined with snow, certainly presents the risk of blowing and drifting snow, along with significant reductions in visibility, along with minor lakeshore flooding concerns.

Snow chances diminish Tuesday evening into the overnight hours leaving lots of sunshine for the entire region on Wednesday. High temperatures Tuesday expected be within a couple of degrees on either side of freezing before climbing several degrees on Wednesday.

LONG TERM. (Wednesday night through Sunday) Issued at 227 AM EST Mon Nov 30 2020

High impact weather potential: Minimal.

As the aforementioned system continues its departure towards James Bay Wednesday night, a second closed upper-level low is expected to dig from Canada into the southern plains by Wednesday night into Thursday. Current trends continue to suggest that this system's surface reflection slides well to our south through the Ohio Valley during the Thu night-Friday time frame while relatively higher surface pressure works its way into the region locally aiding to keep precip chances low through at least Friday night. Looking ahead to next weekend, yet another anomalously strong trough is expected to sag into the midsection of the CONUS, and while large uncertainty exists to the overall pattern evolution, this time frame would appear to the bring the next chance for precip to northern Michigan. Near to slightly above normal temperatures anticipated throughout the bulk of the long-term forecast period.

AVIATION. (For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning) Issued at 534 AM EST Mon Nov 30 2020

A deepening low pressure system will work up the eastern states today and tonight, while colder air and quite gusty northerly winds continue to result in scattered light lake effect snow for mainly TVC/MBL. Some reductions in VSBY is possible in the snow showers, mainly this morning, but CIGS will prevail as MVFR at all but PLN, where a return to VFR is likely today. Some light snow could return late tonight around APN.

MARINE. Issued at 227 AM EST Mon Nov 30 2020

A deepening low pressure system will work up the eastern states today and tonight, then tracks into Quebec Tuesday through Wednesday. This system will likely bring some rain and snow to Lake Huron and possibly the St. Mary's river system late tonight and Tuesday. Otherwise, scattered light lake effect is expected today and tonight. The pressure gradient will be fairly tight over this time, resulting in solid advisory and gale force winds over all nearshore waters, which look to persist through Wednesday. Drier and milder weather returns by Wednesday.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . LAKESHORE FLOOD ADVISORY until 7 AM EST Tuesday for MIZ018-020- 021-024>026-031-099. LH . GALE WATCH from Tuesday morning through late Tuesday night for LHZ345-346. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 7 AM EST Tuesday for LHZ345-346. GALE WARNING until 6 AM EST Wednesday for LHZ347>349. LM . GALE WATCH from Tuesday morning through late Tuesday night for LMZ341. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 7 AM EST Tuesday for LMZ341. GALE WARNING until 6 AM EST Wednesday for LMZ323-342-344>346. LS . GALE WATCH from Tuesday morning through late Tuesday night for LSZ321-322. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 7 AM EST Tuesday for LSZ321-322.

UPDATE . JK NEAR TERM . SMD SHORT TERM . MG LONG TERM . MG AVIATION . SMD MARINE . SMD

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
GTLM4 - Grand Traverse Light, MI	48 mi	50 min	NNE 24 G 29	37°F			1015.9 hPa
MACM4 - 9075080 - Mackinaw City, MI	75 mi	42 min	N 14 G 24		41°F		1013.7 hPa

Wind History for Mackinaw City, MI

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Grayling, Grayling Army Airfield, MI	12 mi	92 min	N 11 G 19	9.00 mi	Overcast	28°F	23°F	82%	1013.3 hPa
Bellaire, Antrim County Airport, MI	24 mi	35 min	N 7 G 14	10.00 mi	Overcast	32°F	23°F	69%	1013.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KGOV

Wind History from GOV (wind in knots)

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Weather Map

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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East

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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI

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