Tuesday, January19, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Manistee Lake, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 8:04AMSunset 5:34PM Tuesday January 19, 2021 7:47 PM EST (00:47 UTC) Moonrise 11:44AMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 41% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 7 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ323 Grand Traverse Bay South Of A Line Grand Traverse Light To Norwood Mi- 350 Pm Est Tue Jan 19 2021
.small craft advisory in effect until midnight est tonight...
.gale warning in effect from Wednesday afternoon through late Wednesday night...
Tonight..Northwest wind 10 to 20 knots. Snow showers early in the evening, then numerous snow showers after midnight. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Wednesday..Southwest wind 15 to 25 knots with gusts to around 35 knots. Scattered snow showers. Waves 3 to 5 feet.
Wednesday night..Southwest wind up to 30 knots with gusts to around 40 knots. Chance of rain and snow showers. Waves 3 to 5 feet.
Thursday..West wind 15 to 25 knots with gusts to around 30 knots. Chance of rain and snow showers. Waves 3 to 5 feet. SEe the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.
LMZ323 Expires:202101200500;;175203 FZUS53 KAPX 192050 NSHAPX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Gaylord MI 350 PM EST Tue Jan 19 2021 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lakes Huron... Michigan and Superior. Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LMZ323-200500-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Manistee Lake, MI
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location: 44.7, -84.94     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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FXUS63 KAPX 192313 AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 613 PM EST Tue Jan 19 2021

NEAR TERM. (Through Wednesday) Issued at 341 PM EST Tue Jan 19 2021

. Lake effect snow continues .

High impact weather potential: moderate localized accums of snow tonight in the snow belts.

1013mb low pressure is moving into western Quebec. Trailing lake- aggregate trof skirts far northern Lk Huron and extends into eastern upper MI. Westerly surface winds are seen south of the trof, with nw winds north. Resulting w to wnw Lake effect snows in northern lower MI have focused north of APX proper and south of the Bridge today. There are signs of some diurnal disruption of this activity. In eastern upper MI, wnw flow has kept the best activity in central and western Chippewa Co, near and north of M-28, including the Sault. This has been complicated by the presence of the surface trof, which has at times been a disruptive force to bands poking into eastern upper MI, and at other times been a source of convergence.

A digging 500mb shortwave will crash across the region this evening. The mid-levels dry overnight in post-wave subsidence, and a shortwave ridge axis eventually crosses our area on Wednesday. At the surface, the lake-aggregate trof will be suppressed as a ridge of high pressure builds in overnight. 1000-850mb winds will veer nw this evening, before weakening and starting to back again overnight. This gives way to increasing sw flow on Wednesday as the ridge departs.

Definitely a window for better lake effect snows again tonight, especially in the 1st half of the night. This window is on the short side, and is complicated by the unsteady winds. Nam BUFR soundings show inversion heights increasing, peaking at around 6k ft mid-evening. The DGZ is skinny, but pegged right on the omega max in the vertical. This will continue to produce classically dry/fluffy lake effect snow, with snow liquid ratios in excess of 20:1. Have increased QPF and snow ratios in western Chippewa, and parts of nw lower MI.

In eastern upper MI, have 2-5" progged tonight west of Brimley and north of M-28. Currently thinking the winds veer nw quickly enough to take the Sault out of better snow bands fairly quickly. In northern lower, a similar 2-5" is forecast west of I-75 and east of Gd Trav Bay, slipping down into parts of Kalkaska and Crawford Cos.

Headlines: Chippewa Co is fine. Given unusual amounts of water open on extreme northern Lake MI for this time of year, southern Emmet/Cheboygan Cos may remain somewhat under the gun even as winds veer into northern lower MI. Have extended those two counties until midnight. Tougher question: what to do with Leelanau and Gd Trav Cos? They have not had much snow so far, and only have progged 1-2" here tonight These are not advisory numbers. but it's lake effect, and anything can happen (especially near, say, Williamsburg). Am going to cancel the advis for Lee/Gd Trav . let's see if I regret it.

Wednesday . the passing surface ridge axis and light winds will quickly leave us with some seriously disrupted and weakening lake effect, which sct pops will largely suffice to cover in the morning. Sw flow is very firmly embedded in the afternoon, and broader warm advection/forcing for ascent will likely carry some lake enhanced snow showers in eastern upper MI in the afternoon. Do have afternoon snow accums up to 1" in eastern upper.

Min temps tonight mainly in the teens, though single digits will be seen in parts of eastern upper MI. Max temps Wed in the mid 20s to lower 30s, though increasing sw winds in the afternoon will keep things feeling chillier.

SHORT TERM. (Wednesday night through Friday) Issued at 341 PM EST Tue Jan 19 2021

High Impact Weather Potential: Accumulating snow expected at times through the period.

A potent shortwave will quickly progress across the Great Lakes Wednesday night, providing strong support aloft for a clipper near 990mb that will trek from Ontario into Quebec by Thursday morning. An associated cold front is expected to sweep across the area Wednesday night ahead of a second, stronger cold front that looks to slide from north to south across northern MI Thursday night.

Forecast/Details:

The next main round of precip for the area will arrive Wednesday night after a short break from the lake effect snow. Favorable forcing provided by the approaching system should produce some accumulating snow of around 1-2", mainly along and north of M-32. Only minor accumulations are expected elsewhere initially as forcing and moisture become less favorable further away from the clipper. Westerly winds behind the first front should generate at least some lake effect precip across NW lower through Thursday. However, not all of the precip Wednesday night through Thursday may be snow. With some warmer temps near the lakeshores that will be close to freezing, along with a shallow saturated profile evident in forecast soundings, the potential for drizzle/freezing drizzle exists during this time.

Perhaps the main focus of the short term will be the expected lake effect snow that ramps up behind the second cold front Thursday night through the remainder of the period. Forecast soundings show favorable profiles to support accumulations across the typical NW snow belts. Lake effect evolution isn't anticipated to be too dissimilar to what we've experienced in the past 24HRs currently: saturation through the DGZ will lend towards high snow ratios, diurnal heating and slight wind direction changes should keep lake effect somewhat disorganized during the daytime with better chances for organized bands after sundown, and the main impacts will be rapid drops in visibility within any heavier snowfall and hazardous travel conditions with quick accumulations on roadways. Otherwise, highs near freezing on Thursday will drop about 10 degrees on Friday due to the frontal passage overnight.

LONG TERM. (Friday night through Tuesday) Issued at 341 PM EST Tue Jan 19 2021

High Impact Weather Potential: Continued lake effect, potential system impacts early next week.

As discussed in more depth in the short term portion, lake effect chances across NW lower and eastern upper look to continue into Saturday morning. This may be the time of most intense banding given better chances for organization after sunset. Regardless, lake effect chances will eventually wane into the day on Saturday as high pressure slides overhead. This should provide at least a short break in precip for northern MI before the potential for more snow arrives heading into the second half of the weekend. While the main system looks to move well to our south, ascent provided by a shortwave moving across the region could spark additional snow chances for the area in the Saturday night/Sunday/Monday timeframe. Chilly temperatures compared to what we've seen as of late are expected over this weekend. Highs will be in the teens and low 20s with overnight lows expected to be in the single digits for many across interior northern MI.

AVIATION. (For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening) Issued at 613 PM EST Tue Jan 19 2021

Upper level wave and surface response will slide thru Lower Michigan this evening . providing mid level moisture and synoptic lift to enhanced ongoing westerly flow lake effect snow showers. This feature will exit our area overnight as the upstream ridge axis builds into Michigan into Wednesday. Prevailing conditions will remain MVFR/low VFR . but will drop to IFR within some of the heavier snow showers this evening. W/NW surface winds around 10 kts tonight will become SW and strengthen to 15 to 25 kts on Wednesday.

MARINE. Issued at 341 PM EST Tue Jan 19 2021

Nw winds will diminish greatly tonight, as a weak ridge of high pressure builds in. Sw winds will ramp up behind this ridge on Wed and Wed night. Gale warnings will be issued for the Lake MI waters, and for the Straits. A gale watch is likely on some of our Lk Huron waters (mainly south of Presque Isle Lt) Wed evening.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 7 AM EST Wednesday for MIZ021-022- 027-028-086-087-099. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until midnight EST tonight for MIZ016- 017. LH . SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until midnight EST tonight for LHZ345>348. GALE WARNING from 3 PM Wednesday to 2 AM EST Thursday for LHZ345. GALE WATCH from Wednesday evening through Thursday morning for LHZ348-349. LM . SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until midnight EST tonight for LMZ323-341- 342-344>346. GALE WARNING from 3 PM Wednesday to 2 AM EST Thursday for LMZ323- 341-342-344>346. LS . NONE.

NEAR TERM . JZ SHORT TERM . DJC LONG TERM . DJC AVIATION . MR MARINE . JZ


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
GTLM4 - Grand Traverse Light, MI 48 mi68 min NW 12 G 17 25°F 1017.6 hPa
MACM4 - 9075080 - Mackinaw City, MI 75 mi48 min NW 9.9 G 20 22°F 34°F1015.2 hPa (+1.0)13°F

Wind History for Mackinaw City, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Grayling, Grayling Army Airfield, MI12 mi50 minW 710.00 miOvercast19°F14°F80%1017.7 hPa
Bellaire, Antrim County Airport, MI24 mi53 minN 010.00 miLight Snow24°F14°F67%1016.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KGOV

Wind History from GOV (wind in knots)
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1 day agoN4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW3CalmCalmCalmW3NW3CalmCalmCalmCalmW5W3W4CalmW4
2 days agoNW4NW6NW4NW5NW4NW6N6NW5NW5NW5NW5NW3W3W3NW3N7NW4NW7N7NW4NW3CalmN4Calm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.