Marine Forecasts

    EDIT      (on/off)   Help

---

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Manistee Lake, MI

   Hourly   EDIT   Help

---

Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI

      (on/off)   Help   NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
FXUS63 KAPX 192313 AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 613 PM EST Tue Jan 19 2021

NEAR TERM. (Through Wednesday) Issued at 341 PM EST Tue Jan 19 2021

. Lake effect snow continues .

High impact weather potential: moderate localized accums of snow tonight in the snow belts.

1013mb low pressure is moving into western Quebec. Trailing lake- aggregate trof skirts far northern Lk Huron and extends into eastern upper MI. Westerly surface winds are seen south of the trof, with nw winds north. Resulting w to wnw Lake effect snows in northern lower MI have focused north of APX proper and south of the Bridge today. There are signs of some diurnal disruption of this activity. In eastern upper MI, wnw flow has kept the best activity in central and western Chippewa Co, near and north of M-28, including the Sault. This has been complicated by the presence of the surface trof, which has at times been a disruptive force to bands poking into eastern upper MI, and at other times been a source of convergence.

A digging 500mb shortwave will crash across the region this evening. The mid-levels dry overnight in post-wave subsidence, and a shortwave ridge axis eventually crosses our area on Wednesday. At the surface, the lake-aggregate trof will be suppressed as a ridge of high pressure builds in overnight. 1000-850mb winds will veer nw this evening, before weakening and starting to back again overnight. This gives way to increasing sw flow on Wednesday as the ridge departs.

Definitely a window for better lake effect snows again tonight, especially in the 1st half of the night. This window is on the short side, and is complicated by the unsteady winds. Nam BUFR soundings show inversion heights increasing, peaking at around 6k ft mid-evening. The DGZ is skinny, but pegged right on the omega max in the vertical. This will continue to produce classically dry/fluffy lake effect snow, with snow liquid ratios in excess of 20:1. Have increased QPF and snow ratios in western Chippewa, and parts of nw lower MI.

In eastern upper MI, have 2-5" progged tonight west of Brimley and north of M-28. Currently thinking the winds veer nw quickly enough to take the Sault out of better snow bands fairly quickly. In northern lower, a similar 2-5" is forecast west of I-75 and east of Gd Trav Bay, slipping down into parts of Kalkaska and Crawford Cos.

Headlines: Chippewa Co is fine. Given unusual amounts of water open on extreme northern Lake MI for this time of year, southern Emmet/Cheboygan Cos may remain somewhat under the gun even as winds veer into northern lower MI. Have extended those two counties until midnight. Tougher question: what to do with Leelanau and Gd Trav Cos? They have not had much snow so far, and only have progged 1-2" here tonight These are not advisory numbers. but it's lake effect, and anything can happen (especially near, say, Williamsburg). Am going to cancel the advis for Lee/Gd Trav . let's see if I regret it.

Wednesday . the passing surface ridge axis and light winds will quickly leave us with some seriously disrupted and weakening lake effect, which sct pops will largely suffice to cover in the morning. Sw flow is very firmly embedded in the afternoon, and broader warm advection/forcing for ascent will likely carry some lake enhanced snow showers in eastern upper MI in the afternoon. Do have afternoon snow accums up to 1" in eastern upper.

Min temps tonight mainly in the teens, though single digits will be seen in parts of eastern upper MI. Max temps Wed in the mid 20s to lower 30s, though increasing sw winds in the afternoon will keep things feeling chillier.

SHORT TERM. (Wednesday night through Friday) Issued at 341 PM EST Tue Jan 19 2021

High Impact Weather Potential: Accumulating snow expected at times through the period.

A potent shortwave will quickly progress across the Great Lakes Wednesday night, providing strong support aloft for a clipper near 990mb that will trek from Ontario into Quebec by Thursday morning. An associated cold front is expected to sweep across the area Wednesday night ahead of a second, stronger cold front that looks to slide from north to south across northern MI Thursday night.

Forecast/Details:

The next main round of precip for the area will arrive Wednesday night after a short break from the lake effect snow. Favorable forcing provided by the approaching system should produce some accumulating snow of around 1-2", mainly along and north of M-32. Only minor accumulations are expected elsewhere initially as forcing and moisture become less favorable further away from the clipper. Westerly winds behind the first front should generate at least some lake effect precip across NW lower through Thursday. However, not all of the precip Wednesday night through Thursday may be snow. With some warmer temps near the lakeshores that will be close to freezing, along with a shallow saturated profile evident in forecast soundings, the potential for drizzle/freezing drizzle exists during this time.

Perhaps the main focus of the short term will be the expected lake effect snow that ramps up behind the second cold front Thursday night through the remainder of the period. Forecast soundings show favorable profiles to support accumulations across the typical NW snow belts. Lake effect evolution isn't anticipated to be too dissimilar to what we've experienced in the past 24HRs currently: saturation through the DGZ will lend towards high snow ratios, diurnal heating and slight wind direction changes should keep lake effect somewhat disorganized during the daytime with better chances for organized bands after sundown, and the main impacts will be rapid drops in visibility within any heavier snowfall and hazardous travel conditions with quick accumulations on roadways. Otherwise, highs near freezing on Thursday will drop about 10 degrees on Friday due to the frontal passage overnight.

LONG TERM. (Friday night through Tuesday) Issued at 341 PM EST Tue Jan 19 2021

High Impact Weather Potential: Continued lake effect, potential system impacts early next week.

As discussed in more depth in the short term portion, lake effect chances across NW lower and eastern upper look to continue into Saturday morning. This may be the time of most intense banding given better chances for organization after sunset. Regardless, lake effect chances will eventually wane into the day on Saturday as high pressure slides overhead. This should provide at least a short break in precip for northern MI before the potential for more snow arrives heading into the second half of the weekend. While the main system looks to move well to our south, ascent provided by a shortwave moving across the region could spark additional snow chances for the area in the Saturday night/Sunday/Monday timeframe. Chilly temperatures compared to what we've seen as of late are expected over this weekend. Highs will be in the teens and low 20s with overnight lows expected to be in the single digits for many across interior northern MI.

AVIATION. (For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening) Issued at 613 PM EST Tue Jan 19 2021

Upper level wave and surface response will slide thru Lower Michigan this evening . providing mid level moisture and synoptic lift to enhanced ongoing westerly flow lake effect snow showers. This feature will exit our area overnight as the upstream ridge axis builds into Michigan into Wednesday. Prevailing conditions will remain MVFR/low VFR . but will drop to IFR within some of the heavier snow showers this evening. W/NW surface winds around 10 kts tonight will become SW and strengthen to 15 to 25 kts on Wednesday.

MARINE. Issued at 341 PM EST Tue Jan 19 2021

Nw winds will diminish greatly tonight, as a weak ridge of high pressure builds in. Sw winds will ramp up behind this ridge on Wed and Wed night. Gale warnings will be issued for the Lake MI waters, and for the Straits. A gale watch is likely on some of our Lk Huron waters (mainly south of Presque Isle Lt) Wed evening.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 7 AM EST Wednesday for MIZ021-022- 027-028-086-087-099. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until midnight EST tonight for MIZ016- 017. LH . SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until midnight EST tonight for LHZ345>348. GALE WARNING from 3 PM Wednesday to 2 AM EST Thursday for LHZ345. GALE WATCH from Wednesday evening through Thursday morning for LHZ348-349. LM . SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until midnight EST tonight for LMZ323-341- 342-344>346. GALE WARNING from 3 PM Wednesday to 2 AM EST Thursday for LMZ323- 341-342-344>346. LS . NONE.

NEAR TERM . JZ SHORT TERM . DJC LONG TERM . DJC AVIATION . MR MARINE . JZ

---

Weather Reporting Stations

   EDIT       (on/off)   Help   NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map

Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
GTLM4 - Grand Traverse Light, MI	48 mi	68 min	NW 12 G 17	25°F			1017.6 hPa
MACM4 - 9075080 - Mackinaw City, MI	75 mi	48 min	NW 9.9 G 20	22°F	34°F		1015.2 hPa (+1.0)	13°F

Wind History for Mackinaw City, MI

(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help

8 PM

9 PM

10 PM

11 PM

12 AM

1 AM

2 AM

3 AM

4 AM

5 AM

6 AM

7 AM

8 AM

9 AM

10 AM

11 AM

12 PM

1 PM

2 PM

3 PM

4 PM

5 PM

6 PM

7 PM

Last 24hr

SW5

S6

S6

SW6

NW5

W11 G16

W11 G15

NW13 G18

W11 G17

NW15 G23

NW13 G19

NW12 G19

NW10 G14

W11 G16

NW12 G17

NW13 G19

NW11 G16

NW11 G17

NW12 G20

NW12 G20

NW15 G20

NW11 G16

NW12 G17

NW10 G20

1 day ago

N6

NW4

NW6

NW6

NW4

N4

N3

NW3

N2

NW3

SW1

W2

W3

W4

NW5

NW3

N3

S3

NW4 G9

W4

W5

W4

W2

S3

2 days ago

N6

NW6

NW8 G11

NW11 G14

NW7 G10

NW9 G12

NW10 G14

NW6 G9

N10

N7

N8 G12

N9 G12

N9 G13

N7

NW5

N6 G9

N5

N8

N3

W6 G9

N6 G9

N8 G11

N9 G13

N9

---

Airport Reports

    EDIT      (on/off)   Help   Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.

Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Grayling, Grayling Army Airfield, MI	12 mi	50 min	W 7	10.00 mi	Overcast	19°F	14°F	80%	1017.7 hPa
Bellaire, Antrim County Airport, MI	24 mi	53 min	N 0	10.00 mi	Light Snow	24°F	14°F	67%	1016.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KGOV

Wind History from GOV (wind in knots)

8 PM

9 PM

10 PM

11 PM

12 AM

1 AM

2 AM

3 AM

4 AM

5 AM

6 AM

7 AM

8 AM

9 AM

10 AM

11 AM

12 PM

1 PM

2 PM

3 PM

4 PM

5 PM

6 PM

7 PM

Last 24hr

W5

W5

W4

W5

W5

W5

W5

W8

W7

W6

W7

W10 G17

W8

W7

W6

W10

W8

W8

W11

W5 G16

W8

W6

W7

W7

1 day ago

N4

Calm

Calm

Calm

Calm

Calm

Calm

Calm

Calm

W3

Calm

Calm

Calm

W3

NW3

Calm

Calm

Calm

Calm

W5

W3

W4

Calm

W4

2 days ago

NW4

NW6

NW4

NW5

NW4

NW6

N6

NW5

NW5

NW5

NW5

NW3

W3

W3

NW3

N7

NW4

NW7

N7

NW4

NW3

Calm

N4

Calm

---

Tide / Current Tables for

   EDIT   Weekend mode (on/off)   (on/off)   Help

---

Tide / Current Tables for

   EDIT      (on/off)   Help

---

Weather Map

       (on/off)   Help Weather Map

---

GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East

---

Ground Weather Radar Station

---

Cookie Policy: This website uses cookies to save your settings. No personal information is saved. I do not collect statistics on your visit. You can disable cookies in your browser if you like but it is not recommended for this site. I do not sell cookies. Go to a bakery for that. In fact I do not sell anything. To disable cookies from L-36.com, please refer to the Help button in your browser. Privacy Policy: I do not sell or share any user data or anything else for that matter. The only personal information I save is in the site log which has a line for each page view which includes the IP address your browser sends in the header as well as which page you requested. I use this to block hackers and other bad actors. I do not use this raw data to create profiles on users. I periodically delete the log files. Google supplies the ads on this site. Because I do not track who you are, I cannot customize how these ads are served. They may be personalized to improve the ad experience. If you do not want personalized ads, please adjust the settings on the Google site HERE. NOTE: The best I can determine, this site is not subject to CCPA but I am doing my best to comply anyway. Disclaimer: The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.