Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Sobieski, WI

DISCUSSION
Issued at 1200 PM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026

This afternoon... Brief shower chances remain possible through this afternoon mainly along the Door peninsula as weak frontal boundary gradually shifts east. With little to no upper support and limited instability due to cloud cover, have for the most part kept thunder out of the forecast. Increasing gradient winds behind the front may result in 20 mph gusts across the area through this afternoon.

Minimal shower/storm chances... Better chances for scattered showers and embedded thunder come Monday through Tuesday as stout northwest flow brings another front through the upper Mississippi Valley. Most recent suite of model runs retain the trend of quicker and earlier FROPA late Monday night into Tuesday morning; as such, excessive rainfall and severe potential have gone down.
Regardless, airmass behind the front doesn't look particularly juicy, with better moisture transport from the Gulf remaining to our southwest anyway. WPC has thus shunted both the slight and marginal ERO to the south, though marginal risk remains along/south of Hwy 10. Any excessive rain potential would likely come with training storms or repeated showers. Cannot rule out the possibility of a diurnal storm or two, possibly on the stronger side, as modest instability (500 to 700 J/kg) coincides with 40+ knots of bulk shear during peak heating.

Cooler and more stable air filters in behind the front on Wednesday, with temperatures steadying out in the upper 70s to low 80s. Next period of concern would then be Friday into Saturday as potent shortwave and attendant front traverse the Midwest. Though storm predictability is low this far out, ML guidance paints a broad 5 to 15% prob severe, so will continue to monitor.

Worsening drought conditions... Forecast concerns gradually shift to worsening drought conditions due to the lack of wetting rain we've received recently. Additionally, little to no relief is in sight as better jet dynamics remain to our north with greater moisture return/instability reserve holed up to our south. As of August 11th, the majority of Wisconsin sits in D1 drought status (Moderate), with pockets of D2 (Severe) drought across northwest and north-central Wisconsin where they have received only 25 to 50% of normal precip over the past 30 days. If current dry spell continues, fire weather concerns could come into play during late summer/early fall due to low afternoon RHs and drying fuels.

AVIATION
for 18Z TAF Issuance Issued at 1200 PM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026

MVFR stratus deck behind the front persists over the northwest half of the state as of early this afternoon, though improvement to VFR stratocu is expected at all terminals within the next few hours as the front shifts east. Low MVFR/IFR stratus then increases from the north late tonight into Monday morning, though could be similar situation to this morning where patchy fog and locally reduced vsbys end up manifesting.

Winds continue to veer and increase out of the northwest early this afternoon, with gusts to 20 knots possible into this evening.
Winds then subside overnight, becoming light and variable into Monday morning.

GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.