Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Sobieski, WI

DISCUSSION
Issued at 143 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026

Rain/storm chances today... Frontal boundary remains stalled out over southern Wisconsin as of early this afternoon, which will bring our next chances for rain and storms later this afternoon into this evening. Par for the course, the main concern will be how any additional rainfall will exacerbate ongoing flooding, especially in areas that are already vulnerable. Overall, we're looking at receiving an additional 0.25 to 0.5" of QPF through tonight, with probabilistic guidance showing a 30 to 50% signal for 0.5" of rain over the southern Fox Valley. Reasonable high- end scenario (90 to 95th percentile) would bring amounts in excess of one inch from the Fox Valley to the lakeshore, though this would most likely occur with a slight northward shift of the boundary and training storms. If these amounts were to be realized, flash flood thresholds would likely be met over east- central Wisconsin where soils are already saturated and areal flooding is ongoing.

Severe threat for this afternoon looks less distinguished than yesterday given unfavorable placement north of the front and stable easterly boundary layer flow. Elevated instability (300 to 500 J/kg MUCAPE) and appreciable deep-layer shear (50+ knots)
sneak into our southern tier of counties late this afternoon, though the threat for any surface-based storms is low. Cannot rule out the possibility for an elevated hailer or two given elongated hodographs and decent lapse rates, though suspect that severe potential would be rather limited.

Strong/severe storms late week... Following a brief lull in precip Thursday into Friday, 500 mb pattern then re-amplifies toward the end of the week. Robust trough approaches from the Intermountain West on Saturday as a deepening surface low ejects from the central Plains, bringing with them yet more chances for widespread heavy rain and strong or severe storms. Southerly flow regime would support decent moisture transport from an open Gulf, with a narrow corridor of 60 dewpoints possible along the leading edge of cold FROPA. Decent instability (~1,000 J/kg CAPE) would favor linear ascent along the front, resulting in likely upscale development into a QLCS storm mode Friday evening and overnight.
Main source of uncertainty at this time centers around timing of the front, which currently looks to be late Friday night into early Saturday morning. Regardless, this system looks to be much more dynamic than what we've seen this week thus far, especially with the influence of a 50+ knot LLJ and favorable deep layer shear.

Given an ample supply of Gulf moisture, heavy rain once again becomes a concern Friday into Saturday. Probabilistic guidance currently shows a widespread 30 to 50% chance for receiving 1 inch of rain, with a signal (10 to 30% chance) for exceeding 1.5".
Locally higher amounts would be possible within convection. As such, flash flood potential would once again come into play Friday into Saturday, where WPC currently highlights most of the state in a marginal Day 4 risk for excessive rainfall.

Muc colder air wraps in from the northwest on the back end of the departing surface low on Saturday, resulting in a probable transition from rain to snow across the far north. Probabilities for half an inch of snow currently stand at 20 to 40% mainly over Vilas, so little to no impacts are expected. Temperatures then drop off steeply by Saturday afternoon, bringing highs down into the 30s and 40s for most. High pressure then settles in over the CONUS late this weekend and into early next week, affording us a much needed dry spell.

AVIATION
for 18Z TAF Issuance Issued at 1208 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026

Low IFR/LIFR stratus has lingered over much of the forecast area as of early this afternoon, with patchy BR and reduced vsbys persisting over east-central Wisconsin. Some clearing has begun to work its way into north-central Wisconsin, with the potential for RHI to go VFR in the next hour or two. Rain/storm chances then arrive from the south late this afternoon, lasting through Thursday morning. A strong hail-producing storm or two cannot be ruled out during this time, though severe potential should be limited. This being said, have opted to include a PROB30 mention for -TSRA in the east-central TAFs for when thunder seems most likely. Vsbys may drop into IFR or LIFR territory within any heavier rain.

Light winds and recent rainfall may result in areas of fog/low stratus development late tonight into early Thursday morning.
Locally dense fog with vsbys below 1 SM will be possible, though was not confident enough to provide exact timing resolution as of yet.

HYDROLOGY
Issued at 143 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026

Following another bout of heavy rain and storms yesterday, widespread flooding continues across portions of central to east- central Wisconsin where an areal Flood Warning remains in effect.
Several roads remain closed, especially in areas that received between 3 and 6 inches of convectively-enhanced precip over the past 48 hours. Multiple rivers, namely the Wolf, Menominee, and Wisconsin Rivers, continue to read in minor to moderate flood stage, with the Menominee River now in major flood stage due to the additional influence of snow melt from the Upper Peninsula.
Home evacuations are ongoing along the Wolf River. High flows and rising water levels have also resulted in several dams being compromised or overtopped. If you live near a river or stream, continue to monitor the latest hydro forecasts and Flood Warnings from the National Weather Service in Green Bay.

GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Dense Fog Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 10 AM CDT Thursday for WIZ005-010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074.