Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Cumberland Head, NY

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
As of 1022 PM EDT Thursday...No big changes for the last evening update. Updated forecast to reflect current radar trends. Showers have mostly ended with only a few isolated showers remaining at this time. Minimum temperatures overnight will range from the lower 50s to lower 60s. Previous discussion follows.

Mainly pinprick showers have developed along lines of HRRR guidance. A larger cluster has formed over Rutland County and has anchored to terrain with limited motion. About 2/3rds of an inch have fallen over various sites around the storms, but where there has likely been the most over Clark and Bird Mountains where radar is estimating 1.25" has fallen, there are no sites to provide ground truth, unfortunately. With shear only around 10, no synoptic forcing, and poor lapse rates, any storms will remain garden variety with erratic motions that could result in additional precipitation bulls-eyes. Activity will diminish slowly tonight. There's still some elevated instability lingering. However, there's no mid- level warm advection or increasing southerly flow. Convective activity could sporadically increase at times overnight, but the trend will be decreasing coverage. Unfortunately, another humid night in the mid 50s to mid 60s is expected.

Friday continues to appear more active with better convective parameters across the board with upper 70s to lower 80s and 60s dewpoints. Another trough will provide marginal synoptic forcing. Forecast skew-Ts still suggest tall, skinny CAPE profiles with low shear across the region. It will take until mid-afternoon for the region to destabilize. So the best chances for showers and storms will be in our climatological 1-10 PM window. Slow moving thunderstorms with heavy rainfall will be the main concern for Friday. The trough will depart after midnight, but increasing warm advection behind it and present of a nocturnal LLJ may allow for a few pinprick showers or storms to linger overnight. Little change to warmth and humidity will keep overnight lows in the mid 50s to mid 60s another night.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
As of 303 PM EDT Thursday...An upper level low slowly makes its way into the region over the weekend, pushing through a few fronts/troughs on Saturday. There look to be broken rounds of showers and thunderstorms associated with these features, with some gaps in between. The first round should move into northern New York in the early morning and Vermont in the late morning.
It does not look like a significant amount of instability will develop before this round comes through, so any storms should be under severe levels. There looks to be at least a partial gap in the afternoon before another broken line comes through later in the day. Adequate shear should be in place, but it will be relatively weakly forced and there are questions on how much instability will develop. If adequate clearing can occur between the lines, there is a low severe chance for the second line, and the SPC has therefore placed the region in the Marginal risk. East of the Greens, southeast flow will keep a cooler marine modified airmass in place and may prevent any thunderstorms from forming at all. There will be favorable conditions for heavy rain with any storms that develop, though there looks to be decent storm motion so any consistently training looks unlikely. However, the threat of flash flooding cannot be completely ruled out. As the low passes overhead and to the east, moist northwest flow develops on the backside for Sunday. There will be upslope showers throughout much of the day. Temperatures will also be much cooler, with highs in the 50s and low 60s for most places. The low looks to slow down once it moves off the coast so these showers may continue into Monday, especially across eastern areas. Conditions will still be too warm for snow at any of the high peaks.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
As of 303 PM EDT Thursday...A much cooler pattern will continue for next week as northerly cyclonic flow looks to dominate. A few showers are possible on Tuesday and Wednesday as a couple weak shortwaves look to pivot around the upper low to the east, but it should remain mostly dry. A slow moving nor'easter will make a run at the region for mid and late week, and while its exact track and speed are still uncertain, there is again the potential for an extended period of steady rain. Temperatures may be cold enough during it that the highest peaks see a little bit of snow. If the wetter solutions verify, highs may be in the 50s for most areas. Even if this surface low misses to the east, there will be a cold upper level low on the western side so there will likely be some afternoon showers regardless. The cooler and unsettled weather looks to continue into the weekend, though it will likely not be a consistent steady rain.

AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
Through 00Z SATURDAY...light and variable winds thru 12z with SE4-6 kts at KRUT. Some patchy fog is possible, especially over any terminal where precipitation occurs. However, we are not in our climatological fog season
Attm
thinking KMPV and KRUT but KRUT may be more VCFG. Some BR possible with increased dewpoints and light winds for KSLK/KMSS. Isold/Sct -shsn dissipating overnight. Largely VFR except those sites I mentioned earlier. A line of showers/t-storms from activity across the northern Great Lakes falls apart as it reaches the St. Lawrence Vly ard 12-15z but daytime heating will likely allow for increase in intensity and possible TSRA as it crosses NY-VT from 18-23z. Again, mainly VFR with some MVFR with heavier activity. Winds will be S-SW 5-10 knots aft 12-14z.

Outlook...

Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Definite SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Likely SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Sunday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Likely SHRA.
Sunday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Monday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Monday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Slight chance SHRA.
Tuesday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Slight chance SHRA.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...None.
NY...None.