Thursday, April2, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Traverse City, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:16AMSunset 8:08PM Thursday April 2, 2020 1:21 AM EDT (05:21 UTC) Moonrise 12:28PMMoonset 3:23AM Illumination 67% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ323 Grand Traverse Bay South Of A Line Grand Traverse Light To Norwood Mi- 1020 Pm Edt Wed Apr 1 2020
Overnight..Light winds. Mostly clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
Thursday..Light winds. Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Thursday night..Light winds. Mostly clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday..Light winds. Mostly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less. SEe the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.
LMZ323 Expires:202004021030;;433367 FZUS53 KAPX 020220 NSHAPX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Gaylord MI 1020 PM EDT Wed Apr 1 2020 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lakes Huron... Michigan and Superior. Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LMZ323-021030-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Traverse City, MI
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location: 44.77, -85.62     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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FXUS63 KAPX 020232 AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 1032 PM EDT Wed Apr 1 2020

UPDATE. Issued at 1028 PM EDT Wed Apr 1 2020

High pressure building into the Great Lakes region will provide mostly clear skies and light winds across northern Lower and eastern Upper MI overnight. These good radiational cooling conditions will allow temperatures to fall into the upper 20s to around 30 degrees by morning. This is cooler than it has been the past few nights, but still a little above normal for early April. Only minor hourly tweaks were required to hourly forecast.

NEAR TERM. (Through Thursday) Issued at 411 PM EDT Wed Apr 1 2020

. Chilly with decreasing cloud trends tonight .

High Impact Weather . None is expected.

Forecast Concerns . Timing of the clouds departing and how cold it will get tonight.

High pressure and associated drier air centered across northern Ontario will continue to build southward into northern Michigan through Thursday. This is expected to lead to clearing skies this evening/early tonight, especially as instability driven cumulus clouds fade out toward sunset. Light northerly winds should decouple in most spots leading to decent radiational cooling conditions tonight. Can't totally rule out patchy fog formation but given all the dry air upstream will not include this in the forecast at this time. Have gone just under guidance with forecast lows ranging through the 20s. Mid level warm advection Thursday should boost highs into the 50s across much of northern Michigan which should feel awfully good when combined with the expected abundant sunshine.

SHORT TERM. (Thursday night through Saturday) Issued at 411 PM EDT Wed Apr 1 2020

High Impact Weather Potential: Minimal.

Pattern Forecast: Amplified/blocky pattern across North America . anchored on the west end by an upper lows over British Columbia/Alberta . and in the east by a low over the northwest Atlantic. Between these features is expected to be a narrow ridge axis that will run right across the upper Great Lakes Friday. West of that upper ridge axis will be a cold/occluded boundary that will be stuck over the Midwest Thursday and parts of Friday . but eventually some height falls swinging through the northern Plains and upper Midwest will nudge this front eastward and into Michigan by Saturday though in a weakened state. High pressure center around 1024mb will then build into the upper Lakes behind this boundary on Sunday . with a weak ripple aloft probably passing north of the state.

Primary Forecast Concerns: Increasing precipitation chances with the approaching cold front is the primary forecast issue heading into the weekend. Slow overall movement of the large scale pattern will allow time for return flow to drag at least a narrow axis of deeper moisture northward along the frontal boundary. Precipitable water values approaching an inch expected to reach Wisconsin/Lower Michigan ahead of the front Friday night/Saturday. Friday still looks dry and warm with highs in the 50s away from the lakes . and some 60s into northwest Lower. Will introduce initial rain chances into northwest Lower during the early morning hours of Saturday . then spread them across the forecast area during the day. Does look like there will be some quick drying by Saturday evening . so think we can trend the forecast drier by then.

LONG TERM. (Saturday night through Wednesday) Issued at 411 PM EDT Wed Apr 1 2020

High Impact Weather Potential: Minimal.

Latter half of the weekend looks dry with high pressure in place . increasing warm advection to start the week may bring the threat for rain back into northern Michigan on Monday. Off and on rain chances may continue into midweek . with indications of a cold front passage in the Wednesday time frame but with a lot of uncertainty. But so far there doesn't appear to be any impactful systems on the horizon.

AVIATION. (For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening) Issued at 748 PM EDT Wed Apr 1 2020

VFR conditions expected across the northern MI terminals through the 00Z TAF valid time. High pressure will build across the area through the period, supporting light winds and minimal cloud cover.

MARINE. Issued at 411 PM EDT Wed Apr 1 2020

High pressure to our north will ridge in across the western Great Lakes over the next few days. This will lead to precipitation free conditions along with light winds through the day on Friday.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . NONE. LH . NONE. LM . NONE. LS . NONE.

UPDATE . PB NEAR TERM . AS SHORT TERM . JPB LONG TERM . JPB AVIATION . PB MARINE . AS


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
GTLM4 - Grand Traverse Light, MI 31 mi41 min W 2.9 G 5.1 37°F 1020.3 hPa
MEEM4 - Manistee Harbor, MI 52 mi41 min NNW 1 G 2.9 37°F 1021.3 hPa
BSBM4 - Big Sable Point, MI 68 mi41 min N 2.9 G 2.9 36°F 1021 hPa

Wind History for Ludington, MI
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Cherry Capital Airport, MI3 mi28 minN 09.00 miFair33°F28°F82%1020.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KTVC

Wind History from TVC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE6N3CalmNE3N5N4CalmCalmNW4NE5NE4N4N5NE8N8N5NE6N8N3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoN4N4N4NE7NE10N8N9NE7NE8N5N7N8N7N7N9NE7N6N8NE5N5NE4NE5NE5NE7
2 days agoW7NW10NW10NW12
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (1,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.