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LMZ323 Grand Traverse Bay South Of A Line Grand Traverse Light To Norwood Mi- 357 Pm Est Sat Dec 2 2023
Tonight..East wind 10 to 15 knots. Chance of snow and rain after midnight. Waves 2 feet or less.
Sunday..Northeast wind 5 to 10 knots. Rain and snow likely. Waves 2 feet or less.
Sunday night..North wind 5 to 10 knots. Chance of rain and snow showers. Waves 2 feet or less.
Monday..Northwest wind 5 to 10 knots. Partly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
see the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.

LMZ300
No data

FXUS63 KAPX 022301 AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 601 PM EST Sat Dec 2 2023

NEAR TERM
(Through Tonight)
Issued at 355 PM EST Sat Dec 2 2023

High Impact Weather Potential: Minimal. Snow arriving late tonight across far southwestern areas.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Low amplitude ridging sits atop the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes this afternoon...in advance of longwave troughing making slow eastward progress into the central Plains.
Elongated high pressure stretched from Quebec westward into the upper MS Valley will become displaced east as the upstream wave and attendant developing surface response trek across the mid-MS Valley tonight and into the western Great Lakes by early Sunday.

Primary Forecast Concerns: Increasing precipitation chances late tonight.

Partly to mostly sunny skies across the majority of northern Michigan this afternoon with temperatures varying from the mid-30s to low 40s. Clouds will gradually increase this evening before thickening/lowering overnight as low pressure approaches from the southwest. Far southwest areas may get into some snow by 09-12z with any accumulation by 12z Sunday under half an inch. East south-east winds in advance of this system overnight combined with a marginally sufficient over-water thermal gradient may be enough to kick off a few lake effect rain/snow showers across northeast lower...again mainly during the second half of the overnight. Lows tonight spanning the 20s to low 30s area-wide -- coolest north of the bridge, warmest near the Lake Huron shoreline.

SHORT TERM
(Sunday through Tuesday)
Issued at 355 PM EST Sat Dec 2 2023

High Impact Weather Potential: Accumulating snow Sunday, likely leading to some slick roads across portions of northern Michigan.

Pattern Forecast: Low pressure alluded to above in the near-term forecast section crosses southeast Michigan and the Ohio Valley during the day Sunday. Lingering low-level moisture strips east of northern MI by Monday morning with mid-level shortwave ridging crossing the area during the day Monday. This in advance of shortwave troughing set to dive from the northern Plains into the western Lakes Monday night - Tuesday...potentially bringing additional snow shower activity to parts of the forecast area.

Primary Forecast Concerns: Snow accumulations Sunday through Sunday night. Additional snow shower potential Monday night - Tuesday.

Little overall change from the last couple of forecast cycles regarding Sunday's snow "event". Low pressure passing by to our southeast will place northern Michigan in a favorable spot for widespread precipitation...generally in the form of snow across the majority of the forecast area. Suppose a bit of freezing drizzle could mix in as precip commences, particularly across the higher terrain of interior northern lower. A rain/snow mix or all rain still appears to be the dominant p-type as you head toward Lake Huron, primarily from APN to Gladwin and points east -- owing to a deeper near-surface melting/warm layer.

With respect to accumulations, latest probabilistic guidance continues to focus highest chances of 2"+ over the interior higher terrain, generally ranging from 60-75%. Chances for 4" up a tick from yesterday...highest between 20-30%. Lower chances for those accumulation thresholds as you head into the Great Lakes collar counties and north of the Mackinac Bridge. Still not anticipating this will rise to winter weather advisory criteria, but given this being a wetter snowfall with SLRs ranging from 8-11:1, development of slick/greasy roads appears pretty likely across interior northern lower, including Interstate 75. The bulk of synoptic support exits stage right Sunday evening/overnight, although lingering wrap around low-level moisture with weak lake support may prove to be enough to continue light snow showers/drizzle/freezing drizzle chances with the moisture depth struggling to reach -8 to -10 C.

Lingering lake induced precip not out of the question Monday morning with much drier air advecting in from the north by afternoon.
Attention then transitions to late Monday night - Tuesday as a clipper system crosses the upper MS Valley and western Great Lakes.
Still a fair bit of uncertainty with respect to the track of this system, but latest trends suggest while it'll be plenty cold for snow to be the dominant p-type, a lack of deep moisture may limit the overall intensity and duration of snow. Highest chances for accumulation currently appear to be across far northwest lower MI.

LONG TERM
(Tuesday night through Saturday)
Issued at 355 PM EST Sat Dec 2 2023

High Impact Weather Potential: Monitoring late week clipper system.

Longwave troughing continues to progress across the eastern half of the CONUS then begins to transition to a more zonal flow pattern towards the end of next week. Embedded shortwave troughing over the northern Canadian Plains progressing towards the Great Lakes Thursday continues a quasi-active weather pattern at the end of next week.

The main story later next week revolves around the chance of a clipper system bringing an extended period of precipitation to parts of the CWA. Potential for snowfall accumulation remains possible at this time with current guidance and will be monitored with future model runs.

AVIATION
(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 600 PM EST Sat Dec 2 2023

Low level ridging in place across the Western Great Lakes will give way to a developing low pressure system that will quickly lift out of the Southern Plains and thru the Mid Mississippi Valley tonight and then into the Eastern Great Lakes by Sunday afternoon. Large area of mixed rain/snow will spread into Northern Michigan from south to north on Sunday...dropping conditions to MVFR during the onset and then to IFR as the precip shield becomes well established. Surface winds will remain from the W/NE under 10 kts tonight...strengthening to 10 to 20 kts on Sunday.

MARINE
Issued at 355 PM EST Sat Dec 2 2023

Sub-advisory winds/waves are expected to continue across northern Michigan's nearshore waters through the remainder of the weekend into early next week. Widespread rain/snow expected to arrive on Sunday before gradually diminishing Sunday evening/overnight.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

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