Friday, January17, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Traverse City, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 8:06AMSunset 5:31PM Friday January 17, 2020 10:27 AM EST (15:27 UTC) Moonrise 12:46AMMoonset 12:25PM Illumination 51% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 22 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ323 Grand Traverse Bay South Of A Line Grand Traverse Light To Norwood Mi- 409 Am Est Fri Jan 17 2020
.gale watch in effect from late tonight through Saturday afternoon...
Today..Light winds becoming south 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots in the morning. Isolated snow showers early in the morning. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tonight..Southeast wind 15 to 25 knots with gusts to around 35 knots. Snow. Waves 3 to 5 feet.
Saturday..South wind 15 to 25 knots with gusts to around 30 knots. Snow and rain. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Saturday night..Northwest wind 10 to 20 knots with gusts to around 30 knots. Snow and rain. Waves 4 to 6 feet. SEe the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.
LMZ323 Expires:202001171715;;073204 FZUS53 KAPX 170909 NSHAPX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Gaylord MI 409 AM EST Fri Jan 17 2020 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lakes Huron... Michigan and Superior. Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LMZ323-171715-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Traverse City, MI
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location: 44.77, -85.62     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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FXUS63 KAPX 171129 AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 629 AM EST Fri Jan 17 2020

NEAR TERM. (Today through Tonight) Issued at 327 AM EST Fri Jan 17 2020

Impactful weather: System accumulating snow starting tonight.

Pattern synopsis and forecast:

A fairly high amplitude upper air pattern out there early this morning, with troughing over both coasts, and ridging in the central conus. On the forward flank of the ridging, strong sfc high pressure continues to work it's way into nrn Michigan, with much drier air and lowering inversion heights via increased subsidence. This has been creating an increasingly harsher environment for sustaining lake effect snow showers, which were weakening/diminishing with time in the NW flow snowbelts. There was still enough low level moisture stuck underneath the lowering inversion, for widespread stratus, but breaks in the clouds were developing, in part due to weakening winds resulting in less inland transport of moisture flux off the Great Lakes. Well upstream in western MT, low pressure has developed just ahead of the upper troughing, resulting in areas of snow.

A pretty quiet day, with the strong sfc high pressure swinging across nrn Michigan. Winds will continue to weaken, with less and less moisture flux off the Great Lakes. Lake effect light snow and flurries will initially work closer and closer to the shoreline, before 1000-850mb winds shift more southerly, and perhaps move the flurries into upper Michigan (if the dry air and subsidence hasn't squashed all Lake convection). Either way, there will be little to no accumulation. Outside of the lake effect, low clouds are expected to scattered out, or even go clear, due to the subsidence and drying.

The western MT sfc low pressure and associated upper troughing will have moved into the central Plains by late in the day, which will then track through the mid and upper Mississippi valley by daybreak Saturday. Skies will start clouding back up as top down moistening ensues via gradually increasing theta-e advection, DPVA and 100+kt upper jet dynamics. The atmosphere completely saturates for most all of nrn Michigan through the overnight hours, with light to moderate snow breaking out while the max forcing arrives. Expecting smaller flake size, as the max lift is well below the DGZ. The heavier snow will come Saturday (see below), but 1-3 inches is possible by daybreak Saturday, the most snow in the SW CWA and the least to the NE CWA.

Highs today will be in the lower half of the 20s with lows tonight early this evening, in the teens to low 20s, before temperatures very slowly climb through the night via WAA/thickening clouds.

SHORT TERM. (Saturday through Sunday) Issued at 327 AM EST Fri Jan 17 2020

. A Moderate Ending, and then Moderate Lake Effect .

High Impact Weather Potential . Moderate to possibly heavy snow from a storm that will move through the Upper Great Lakes Saturday. Then lake effect snow Saturday night into Sunday.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast . Saturday morning, the system moves from the Upper Mississippi Valley and into Lower Michigan by 18z. The GFS, NAM and ECWMF/00z have a very similar track with the low moving through C Lower during the day and to be in eastern Lake Huron/Georgian Bay by 00z/Sun. The moisture looks good on the models, but there is some warm air near the sfc (SFC Temp near mid 30s) near Saginaw Bay that may get a mix of rain and snow. However the rest of the region remains cold enough for snow so will. Model QPF is suggesting that the snow could be moderate to heavy at times. It continues to look like the 12 and 24 hour amounts will be in the advisory range.

Saturday evening, the system is east of the region, and we quickly transition to LES mode. The 850 mb temperatures remain between -10c and -18c. With the moisture in the layer around 80 to 90%. The concern then turns to the wind directions to see if the bands can amount residence time to get heavy snow to continue. As we go into Sunday, the winds in the 1000-850 mb layer are north on the models. This will limit some of the fetches, as the winds in lake Superior are more NE. This produces little LES from the north and the shorter fetch over Lake Michigan may not produce much. The snow amounts on the GFS and ECMWF diminish from the limited fetch over the lakes. The 850 mb temperatures are around -14c and the water temperatures are around +3c +4c, Lake Superior, and Michigan respectively. so enough delta T for the instability. Just the wind direction and the dry air in the 850-700 mb layer by Monday morning on the ECMWF and the NAM. The GFS still maintains moisture until 12z/Mon.

Primary Forecast Concerns . The system could produce some higher amounts, and wouldn't be surprised that somewhere a 10"/24 hour amounts are possible, especially near eastern Chippewa county as the initial winds are SE off of Lake Huron. However, all in all, the expectation is that this will produce moderate amounts of snow with gusty winds. Winter Weather Advisory is the expectation.

The start of the LES is still a concern, as we debated how to align the headlines. The problem is that some counties in NW Lower will be still snowing due to LES, after 00z/Sun when the low moves out. This could cause some confusion with the public, so we tried to put headlines up that will cover the event.

LONG TERM. (Sunday night through Thursday) Issued at 327 AM EST Fri Jan 17 2020

High Impact Weather Potential . lake effect snow for Monday through about Tuesday.

Extended (Monday through Thursday) . The winds remain favorable through Tuesday morning with a favorable temperature profile on the GFS. The ECMWF is slightly warming lowering the delta TS to around 13C. Also on both models, there is drier air that will inhibit the moderate snow amounts. So will expect minor to light snow amounts through Wednesday morning

The models are in much better agreement Wednesday as that system moves up out of the S Plains with a sfc trough in the Upper Mississippi Valley and a weak warm front. This looks to kick off some light precipitation (looks like rain or a mix Wednesday night). Thursday, the models then are in disagreement with the potency of the system and the resultant temperature profiles, and thus p-type. The ECMWF would suggest light snow, the GFS some rain showers, before a stronger system will push into the region Friday morning.

AVIATION. (For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning) Issued at 628 AM EST Fri Jan 17 2020

Lake effect flurries were still roaming the NW snowbelts early this morning, but this will end over the next few hours, while the MVFR stratus starts breaking up through the day. Timing when the clouds will break is pretty tough, but VFR conditions will develop as high pressure and very dry air cross nrn Michigan through the day. The next low pressure system starts making it's way toward the western Great Lakes late tonight, with system snow spreading into the airports through the night. This will bring back MVFR CIGS and reduced MVFR/IFR VSBYS.

Light and variable winds with the high pressure will eventually ramp up out of the SE tonight, with LLWS becoming a concern. There could be enough mechanical mixing to prevent true LLWS however, so will not mention it at this time.

MARINE. Issued at 327 AM EST Fri Jan 17 2020

Winds continue to weaken as high pressure moves more into the western Great Lakes. This high pressure works across the region today, while the next low pressure system crosses nrn Michigan Saturday. Winds will ramp up substantially out of the SE tonight ahead of the low pressure, resulting in advisory and many gale force speeds. After the low passes Saturday night, additional advisory winds are anticipated, and potentially additional gales for over srn sections of Lake Michigan. This storm will bring widespread snow to the region, with lake effect snow into early next work week.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from midnight tonight to 7 PM EST Sunday for MIZ020-021-025>027-031>033. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 5 AM Saturday to 1 PM EST Sunday for MIZ086>088-095-096. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 3 AM Saturday to 1 PM EST Sunday for MIZ016-022-028-098-099. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 3 AM Saturday to 7 AM EST Sunday for MIZ017-018-023-024-029-030-097. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from midnight tonight to 1 AM EST Sunday for MIZ034>036-041-042. LH . GALE WATCH from late tonight through Saturday afternoon for LHZ345>349. LM . GALE WATCH from late tonight through Saturday afternoon for LMZ323-341-342-344>346. LS . GALE WATCH from late tonight through Saturday afternoon for LSZ321-322.

NEAR TERM . SMD SHORT TERM . JL LONG TERM . JL AVIATION . SMD MARINE . SMD


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
GTLM4 - Grand Traverse Light, MI 31 mi47 min SSE 2.9 G 7 22°F 1043 hPa
MEEM4 - Manistee Harbor, MI 52 mi47 min E 8 G 11 19°F 1043.3 hPa
BSBM4 - Big Sable Point, MI 68 mi47 min ESE 11 G 14 20°F 1042.3 hPa

Wind History for Ludington, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Cherry Capital Airport, MI3 mi34 minS 69.00 miOvercast20°F12°F71%1043.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KTVC

Wind History from TVC (wind in knots)
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1 day agoE4NE4NE6NE4NE5NE4N4N6N6N5N5NW9NW6NW4W5NW9W8W11W11W13W15
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2 days agoS5S5S6--SW7SW4SW6SW33W5SW6SW6SW4W7SW5W6W8W4W4CalmW5N3N3N4

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (10,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.