Monday, December9, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Traverse City, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:58AMSunset 5:03PM Monday December 9, 2019 8:43 PM EST (01:43 UTC) Moonrise 3:46PMMoonset 5:09AM Illumination 96% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 13 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ323 Grand Traverse Bay South Of A Line Grand Traverse Light To Norwood Mi- 335 Pm Est Mon Dec 9 2019
.small craft advisory in effect through Tuesday morning...
Tonight..Northwest wind 15 to 25 knots with gusts to around 30 knots. Patchy fog early in the evening. Rain showers early in the evening transitioning to snow showers. Waves 4 to 6 feet.
Tuesday..West wind 10 to 20 knots with gusts to around 25 knots. Snow showers likely. Waves 3 to 5 feet.
Tuesday night..West wind 10 to 20 knots. Snow showers likely. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Wednesday..West wind 10 to 20 knots with gusts to around 25 knots. Chance of snow showers. Waves 4 to 6 feet. SEe the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.
LMZ323 Expires:201912100445;;104658 FZUS53 KAPX 092035 NSHAPX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Gaylord MI 335 PM EST Mon Dec 9 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lakes Huron... Michigan and Superior. Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LMZ323-100445-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Traverse City, MI
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location: 44.77, -85.62     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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FXUS63 KAPX 100107 AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 807 PM EST Mon Dec 9 2019

UPDATE. Issued at 806 PM EST Mon Dec 9 2019

. Icy roads expected overnight .

Wrap around precipitation moving through the CWA attm. Heaviest has passed through western and central northern Lower and all of eastern UP. Transition from rain to snow complete across much of areas west of I-75 and the U.P. Rest of the area will switch over before midnight.

With the heaviest radar returns generally east of the rain/snow line, not expecting advisory type accumulations through midnight. However, lake effect snow will begin as the colder air continues to wrap into the region after midnight. The lake effect along with this batch of snowfall should bring a swath of 3 to 6 inch snow amounts for areas between TVC, Grayling, Gaylord and Charlevoix in a NW flow through daybreak, with the heaviest over Charlevoix and Antrim counties. These areas will see the worst of the general travel headaches of gusty winds, reduced visibilities and slippery roads as temperatures fall quickly after midnight.

The lake effect snowfall will continue into the daylight hours Tuesday but become more confined to the Lake Michigan shoreline as winds turn more westerly.

SHORT TERM. (Tuesday through Thursday)

High Impact Weather: Accumulating lake effect snow Tuesday.

Primary Forecast Concerns: Location and intensity of lake effect snow showers through the period.

West northwest flow lake effect snow showers should be ongoing in the morning then with winds slowly backing, bands should become more westerly. With decent moisture (850-700 mb rh of about 70 percent) and excellent over lake instability (lake-850 mb temperature difference of low to mid 20s) do expect decent intensity to a couple of the bands which will likely target the Gaylord and/or Grayling areas. General accumulations of 2 to 4 inches with perhaps some locally higher amounts are expected in the areas targeted by lake effect. Winds continue to back into the southwest Tuesday night while moisture decreases some (mean 850-700 mb rh 50 to 60 percent) so the intensity of the bands should lessen with a general 1 to perhaps 3 inches of accumulation expected. Southwest winds will continue Wednesday morning before shifting back into the west northwest in the afternoon shifting the continued lake effect. Only minor accumulations are expected however as moisture wanes. Not a lot going on Wednesday night with weak high pressure in control before warm advection driven moisture increases snow shower chances on Thursday. It will be colder with temperatures nearly 10 degrees below normal Tuesday and Thursday and a whopping close to 20 degrees below Wednesday.

LONG TERM. (Thursday night through Monday) Issued at 335 PM EST Sun Dec 8 2019

High Impact Weather: Mixed precipitation possible Saturday.

Milder air temporarily moves in Friday into Saturday before another shot of cold air plunges into the region Sunday into early next week. A weak system moving through the flow will increase chances for mainly light snow or mixed rain and snow Friday night into Saturday. Perhaps some lake effect snow showers Saturday night into Sunday behind that system as the colder air returns.

AVIATION. (For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening) Issued at 619 PM EST Mon Dec 9 2019

. LIFR ceilings for the next couple hours .

An area of precipitation will cross the region through the evening and early overnight with LIFR/IFR ceilings and IFR/MVFR visibilities, as well as gusty winds. Temperatures will be falling so the precipitation will fall as some freezing drizzle or rain changing over to snow through the evening. Snow later this evening could be heavier at times. Water and slush already on surfaces will be freezing overnight as well.

The precipitation will eventually evolve into lake effect snow showers Tuesday morning with MVFR ceilings. The Tuesday snow showers will be most prevalent on the west side of northern Lower MI and the airports of KTVC/KPLN and KMBL and will be accompanied by gusty west to northwest winds. The winds along with the falling snow could reduce visibilities at times on area runways.

MARINE. Issued at 242 AM EST Mon Dec 9 2019

Light winds through this morning are expected to become increasingly gusty out of the north, and eventually northwest, this afternoon and overnight as deepening low pressure moves into and out of the area. Current trends support the development of small craft advisory conditions across all of our nearshore waters by later this evening. Winds remain fairly gusty through mid-week as the coldest air of the season overspreads northern Michigan. Rain and snow mixture today transitions to lake effect snow showers tonight through Wednesday.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 4 PM EST Tuesday for MIZ020>022- 025>028-099. LH . SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 11 AM EST Tuesday for LHZ345>349. LM . SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 11 AM EST Tuesday for LMZ323-341-342- 344>346. LS . SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 11 AM EST Tuesday for LSZ321-322.

UPDATE . KF SHORT TERM . AS LONG TERM . AS AVIATION . KF MARINE . mb


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
GTLM4 - Grand Traverse Light, MI 31 mi63 min N 22 G 24 33°F 995.9 hPa
MEEM4 - Manistee Harbor, MI 52 mi63 min NNW 16 G 20 36°F 997 hPa
BSBM4 - Big Sable Point, MI 68 mi43 min WNW 22 G 24 35°F 997.6 hPa (+2.3)

Wind History for Ludington, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Cherry Capital Airport, MI3 mi50 minNW 72.00 miLight Snow Fog/Mist34°F30°F89%994.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KTVC

Wind History from TVC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS3CalmCalmCalmCalmNE5NE5E3CalmNW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW6W4NW8NW7
1 day agoS10
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2 days agoSW4SW3CalmS3CalmCalmSE3CalmS4S5S54S4S4S6S6S6S12
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.