Thursday, October17, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Traverse City, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:54AMSunset 6:54PM Thursday October 17, 2019 1:33 PM EDT (17:33 UTC) Moonrise 8:18PMMoonset 10:39AM Illumination 83% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ323 Grand Traverse Bay South Of A Line Grand Traverse Light To Norwood Mi- 1013 Am Edt Thu Oct 17 2019
.small craft advisory in effect until 6 pm edt this evening...
Today..North wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 25 knots. Scattered showers in the late morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
Tonight..North wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
Friday..Light winds. Partly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday night..South wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less. SEe the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.
LMZ323 Expires:201910172215;;846177 FZUS53 KAPX 171413 NSHAPX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Gaylord MI 1013 AM EDT Thu Oct 17 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lakes Huron... Michigan and Superior. Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LMZ323-172215-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Traverse City, MI
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location: 44.77, -85.62     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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Fxus63 kapx 171316
afdapx
area forecast discussion
national weather service gaylord mi
916 am edt Thu oct 17 2019

Update
Issued at 916 am edt Thu oct 17 2019
north 1000-850mb winds continue, just in advance of a sharp ridge
of high pressure extending from far northern ontario to the lower
ms valley. With building heights warming temps aloft in the wake
of yesterdays synoptic system, inversion heights are down to about
880mb (2500ft agl), per the 12z apx sounding. This is resulting in
only light lake effect precip, despite 850mb temps of -3 to -5c.

Did have to adjust the location of this activity in the morning
forecast, as the better banding is a little further east than
expected (from williamsburg southward). And have also extended
pops a little longer into the day, as lake effect has a certain
momentum all its own. Some cams are also showing this potential
for showers to linger into afternoon near leelanau co and
environs.

Given the lower inversion, cloud cover is trying to thin out
(outside of the primary lake effect areas). There is actually a
healthy amount of sunshine to start the morning in SE sections, as
well as in eastern chip mack cos. There is enough low-level
moisture to result in a shallow CU field with any decent amount of
heating, so expect the sunshine to tend to self-destruct. But
still might need to boost temps in a few spots, especially near
saginaw bay.

Near term (today through tonight)
issued at 310 am edt Thu oct 17 2019

Gradually improving conditions expected today and tonight...

high impact weather potential: none.

Pattern synopsis forecast: deep low pressure responsible for
yesterday's windy and wet weather now well off to our east, with
rapidly maturing "northeaster" working into new england. Although
attendant showers have now exited off to our east, northern michigan
still partially under the influence of this system, with continued
cold air advection within still gusty at times northwest winds.

Despite a robust over-water thermal gradient, lake response has been
significantly muted with rapid loss of synoptic moisture and an ever
shrinking convective boundary layer. Temperatures continue to slowly
fall early this morning, expected to bottom out in the middle 30s to
lower 40s by sunrise.

Large scale flow regime remains progressive today and tonight, with
current new england low pressure working its way northeast into the
canadian maritimes by Friday morning, allowing surface high pressure
and it mid level parent to build into the western great lakes. This
definitely sets the stage for continued improving conditions today
and tonight.

Primary forecast concerns challenges: main focus on cloud and
temperature trends right through tonight. Will also need to address
any lingering light lake effect potential early on this morning.

Details: once again, despite a more than impressive enough over-
water thermal gradient today (delta t's in the high teens) to
generate lake showers, a convective boundary depth that falls well
short of the ice nuclei activation level and simply no synoptic
moisture support sure argues otherwise. Likely to see some shallow
strato-cu rotate off the big waters into parts of eastern upper and
northwest lower michigan, but thinking any precip will be nothing
more than sprinkles very light showers at best this morning (if
anything at all). Generally mostly cloudy skies today in those
favored lake zones, with a few more breaks in the overcast
developing through the day across portions of northeast lower and
eastern upper michigan. Still some gusty winds out there today with
momentum transfer properties supporting gusts in excess of 20 mph,
even a bit higher along the lake huron shore.

While nothing too impactful tonight (now that our growing season
has ended), sure one tough temperature forecast... All dependent
on if we can get some decent clearing. Other factors are set for
some very chilly readings as canadian high pressure settles
directly overhead, allowing winds to decouple and become light to
calm. Cloud forecast a much more formidable challenge, with still
plenty of clouds upstream across southern canada and the northern
mississippi valley. Thinking some of this will definitely thin
with diurnal trends today, just not overly confident on how much.

Guidance still brings patches of clouds overhead through the
night, which definitely has some merit as low level moisture
becomes trapped under intense subsidence inversion. Will
tentatively shy away from some of the colder statistical guidance
numbers, which features our typical ice box locations falling well
down into the 20s. If more clearing is realized than currently
expected, those readings will easily be attainable, if not even a
bit cooler.

Short term (Friday through Saturday)
issued at 310 am edt Thu oct 17 2019

Moderating daytime temperatures...

high impact weather... None is expected.

Primary forecast concerns... Timing in pops Saturday.

Fairly quiet weather is expected this go around with an upper level
ridge to start off the period. The ridge axis will move through on
Friday then be temporarily knocked down on Saturday by a trough
moving by to the northwest. This trough will drag a weak cold front
across the region Saturday evening and possibly bring a few showers
late Saturday afternoon (latest model runs have slowed down timing).

Temperatures will climb from the low and mid 50s Friday into the
upper 50s to around 60 Saturday.

Long term (Saturday night through Wednesday)
issued at 310 am edt Thu oct 17 2019

Milder then cooling off again...

high impact weather... Perhaps some wind related issues early next
week.

A few leftover showers Saturday evening. Otherwise, the upper level
ridge reestablishes itself Sunday leading to a fine autumn day with
plenty of sunshine. A fairly vigorous trough passing by not too far
to the northwest will lead to more showery and windy conditions
Monday through early Wednesday with some improvement likely
Wednesday afternoon. Above normal temperatures Monday will give way
to slightly below normal readings for Tuesday and Wednesday.

Aviation (for the 12z tafs through 12z Friday morning)
issued at 736 am edt Thu oct 17 2019
vfr to high end MVFR CIGS to traverse the TAF locations today
through tonight. Might see a few very light showers impact ktvc
and kmbl this morning. Otherwise, dry weather is expected. Still
some gusty northwest winds today will rapidly subside tonight.

Marine
Issued at 310 am edt Thu oct 17 2019
gusty winds will slowly subside heading through today, with winds
rapidly decreasing in speed tonight as high pressure settles
overhead. Light winds to continue on Friday, with south winds once
again increasing Friday night into Saturday ahead of the next
approaching cold front.

Apx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lh... Small craft advisory until 6 pm edt this evening for lhz346>349.

Lm... Small craft advisory until 6 pm edt this evening for lmz323-342-
344>346.

Ls... Small craft advisory until 6 pm edt this evening for lsz321-322.

Update... Jz
near term... mb
short term... As
long term... As
aviation... mb
marine... mb


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
GTLM4 - Grand Traverse Light, MI 31 mi53 min N 11 G 15 48°F 1015.6 hPa
MEEM4 - Manistee Harbor, MI 52 mi53 min N 11 G 17 48°F 1017.3 hPa
BSBM4 - Big Sable Point, MI 68 mi53 min NNW 13 G 18 49°F 1016.6 hPa

Wind History for Ludington, MI
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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N6
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E6
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W6
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G14
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W10
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G11
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G7
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NE3
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G11
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G11

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Cherry Capital Airport, MI3 mi40 minNNW 710.00 miOvercast49°F37°F66%1014.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KTVC

Wind History from TVC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN17
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NW7N10N10N7NW10
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N7N8
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NW10N7
1 day agoE64SE6NW9N7E8E3CalmCalm4
G15
S4SW5SW6SW4S6S6S4SW4NW8N15
G36
N13
G24
N13
G23
N14
G29
N20
G34
2 days agoW12W12
G20
W11W13W11SW3S3S4S5S3S5S3S3CalmCalmS4CalmS5S7CalmS44S6SE5

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.