Tuesday, July14, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Traverse City, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:09AMSunset 9:20PM Tuesday July 14, 2020 1:52 AM EDT (05:52 UTC) Moonrise 12:55AMMoonset 2:46PM Illumination 36% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 23 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ323 Grand Traverse Bay South Of A Line Grand Traverse Light To Norwood Mi- 855 Pm Edt Mon Jul 13 2020
Overnight..Light winds. Clear after midnight then becoming partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday..Southwest wind 5 to 10 knots. Partly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday night..South wind 5 to 10 knots. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 2 feet or less.
Wednesday..Southwest wind 5 to 10 knots with gusts to around 20 knots. Showers and Thunderstorms likely. Waves 2 feet or less. Winds and waves higher in the vicinity of Thunderstorms. SEe the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.
LMZ323 Expires:202007140900;;807778 FZUS53 KAPX 140055 NSHAPX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Gaylord MI 855 PM EDT Mon Jul 13 2020 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lakes Huron... Michigan and Superior. Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LMZ323-140900-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Traverse City, MI
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location: 44.77, -85.62     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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FXUS63 KAPX 140459 AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 1259 AM EDT Tue Jul 14 2020

UPDATE. Issued at 855 PM EDT Mon Jul 13 2020

Large are of high pressure remain centered over Michigan late this evening All diurnal CU has dissipated with sunset. leaving clear skies across our entire CWA Meanwhile. upstream cold front is holding over the Northern Plains . but will be making eastward progress into the Upper Mississippi Valley overnight. Leading edge of high clouds will drift into our CWA overnight . but will remain thin enough to preclude anything less than a mostly clear forecast. Expect another relatively cool mid July night across the Northwoods . with overnight lows dropping into the low to mid 50s.

NEAR TERM. (Through Tuesday) Issued at 303 PM EDT Mon Jul 13 2020

High impact weather potential: None

Primary forecast concerns/challenges: Cloud cover

Pattern synopsis/forecast: Broad troughiness across the Northern Plains with induced upper level ridging across the Great lakes. Minimal sensible weather concerns through Tuesday as surface high pressure slowly slides across the Great Lakes. Low pressure was centered near southern Hudson's Bay with a warm front extending southeast toward the western Lakes.

Tonight . Diurnal cumulus fields will dissipate this evening with just some high clouds drifting into the area overnight in advance of the warm front. Lows will be in the lower to middle 50s. Some patchy fog may develop in low lying areas but nothing widespread.

Tuesday . The warm front pushes northward across western parts of the area, with an increase in mid and high level cloudiness. Although low level moisture is not impressive, we may see a few showers develop along the frontal boundary during the afternoon hours over parts of Chippewa and Mackinac Counties. Winds will shift to the south behind the front which will help to push temperatures well into the 80s (even a few readings close to 90 in northeast lower. Despite the warm temperatures, humidity levels will remain in the comfortable 50s.

SHORT TERM. (Tuesday night through Thursday) Issued at 303 PM EDT Mon Jul 13 2020

. Shower/Storm Chances Return .

High Impact Weather Potential . Locally heavy rainfall possible Wednesday/Wednesday night.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast . A fairly potent upper-level wave, current over the northern Plains and Canadian Prairies, will shear northeast into northern Ontario by Tuesday night. This wave will push cold front into the western Great Lakes as early as Tuesday night, but it is not expected to clear the forecast area before early Thursday. The model trend is for this system to be quite a bit slower than it was about 24 hours ago. This seems to be a good trend as the surface front becomes parallel to the upper- level flow, and a secondary disturbance is now forecast to develop a wave along the front as it tracks northeast through the area.

The current timing of the front and the wave developing along it, support the most widespread shower/storm threat for the forecast area occurring later Wednesday into Wednesday night. However, the threat arrives across eastern Upper sooner due to an earlier frontal arrival. The severe storm threat with this approaching system does not appear especially high at this time, as wind fields are modest and the amount of instability is questionable. However, there does appear to be a heavy rain threat Wednesday/Wednesday night due to the slow movement of the front and very moist airmass. Precipitable water values in the vicinity of the front are forecast to approach 2 inches, which would be near record levels for mid-July if they verify. At this point it's looking like a widespread 1"-1.5" rainfall event across the forecast area by the time all is said and done. However, locally higher totals are certainly possible with any stronger and/or training convection.

Very warm and humid conditions are expected through the period.

LONG TERM. (Thursday night through Monday) Issued at 303 PM EDT Mon Jul 13 2020

High Impact Weather Potential . Appears low at this time.

The upper-level flow trends zonal behind the midweek system, with little in the way of well defined and/or agreed upon timing for our next chance for organized showers/storms. In any event, it look very warm and humid through the period, with temperatures well into the 90s in many areas by the weekend. A periodic shower/storm threat will certainly be there given the juicy airmass expected, but we'll need a little more time to pinpoint favored times/locations given the low-amplitude disturbances that are expected to be around.

AVIATION. (For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night) Issued at 1257 AM EDT Tue Jul 14 2020

Skies were currently clear as high pressure was sliding just east of nrn Michigan, while a warm front in nrn MN/WI was resulting in just some approaching patchy thin cirrus. The clear skies and good radiational cooling are likely going to allow MVFR/IFR fog to develop at mbL, which will continue into daybreak.

The warm front lifts through the region this morning, while a cold front will push through the western Great Lakes tonight. Only SCT cumulus expected today, maybe mixed with a little higher level cloud. Skies thicken in clouds through the night, especially overnight, while the chances for showers and possible thunderstorms increase. There will also likely be some LLWS for the Tuesday night overnight hours for the NW lower airports.

Light southerly winds will turn to lake breezes today, then turning S/SW and increasing a bit tonight.

MARINE. Issued at 303 PM EDT Mon Jul 13 2020

Marine. Winds and waves will remain below advisory levels through Tuesday, as high pressure and a weak pressure gradient drift across the region. There will be no precipitation over this time. There is a chance for advisory level winds Tuesday night into Wednesday for Whitefish Bay and Lake Michigan, as a tighter pressure gradient moves in ahead of an approaching cold front. Showers are likely over this time, along with possible thunderstorms. No severe storms are expected.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . NONE. LH . NONE. LM . NONE. LS . NONE.

UPDATE . MR NEAR TERM . JK SHORT TERM . PB LONG TERM . PB AVIATION . SMD MARINE . JK


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
45183 18 mi52 min ESE 3.9 G 3.9 67°F 69°F
GTLM4 - Grand Traverse Light, MI 31 mi72 min SSE 2.9 G 2.9 87°F 1016.3 hPa
MEEM4 - Manistee Harbor, MI 52 mi72 min E 2.9 G 4.1 63°F 1016.9 hPa
BSBM4 - Big Sable Point, MI 68 mi72 min ESE 2.9 G 2.9 61°F 1016.3 hPa

Wind History for Ludington, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Cherry Capital Airport, MI3 mi59 minN 010.00 miFair58°F53°F84%1015.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KTVC

Wind History from TVC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN6E5S3CalmCalmN4NW6NW7N85NW7N56NE666NE6NE7NE4CalmS3CalmCalmCalm
1 day agoN8N6NW5NW7NW5N7N10N10N10
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2 days agoW5CalmCalmCalmSW3S4NW8NW6N5NW7NW7NW10N9NW12N9NW10NW9
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (1,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.