Thursday, August22, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Traverse City, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:50AMSunset 8:33PM Thursday August 22, 2019 10:05 PM EDT (02:05 UTC) Moonrise 11:10PMMoonset 12:44PM Illumination 50% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 22 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
LMZ323 Grand Traverse Bay South Of A Line Grand Traverse Light To Norwood Mi- 919 Pm Edt Thu Aug 22 2019
Overnight..Northeast wind 5 to 10 knots. Slight chance of showers after midnight. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday..North wind 5 to 10 knots. Slight chance of showers. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday night..East wind 5 to 10 knots. Mostly clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday..Light winds. Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less. SEe the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.
LMZ323 Expires:201908230930;;059915 FZUS53 KAPX 230119 NSHAPX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Gaylord MI 919 PM EDT Thu Aug 22 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lakes Huron... Michigan and Superior. Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LMZ323-230930-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Traverse City, MI
   Hourly   EDIT   Help
location: 44.77, -85.62     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
      (on/off)   Help   NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
Fxus63 kapx 230119
afdapx
area forecast discussion
national weather service gaylord mi
919 pm edt Thu aug 22 2019

Update
Issued at 919 pm edt Thu aug 22 2019
large area of cool canadian high pressure continues to build
southward into the upper mississippi valley and the great lakes
region late this evening. Upper level trough axis remains
upstream... But will be swinging thru northern michigan overnight
into early Friday. This feature combined with cold air aloft may
kick off a few northerly flow lake effect rain showers overnight
into Friday morning. But overall... Our CWA will remain precip-free
overnight and rather cool for this time of year. Overnight low
temps will cool into the 40s for much of our cwa... And even into
the upper 30s for some inland higher terrain areas of northern
lower michigan.

Near term (through tonight)
issued at 245 pm edt Thu aug 22 2019

Excellent sleeping weather tonight...

high impact weather... None expected.

Primary forecast concerns... Possible pops.

Looking at the mid afternoon surface weather map, high pressure
remains centered over northwest ontario with ridging extending
all the way into northern michigan. Visible satellite look shows
a scattered to broken cumulus field across the region (mainly
inland). Apx radar was void of returns.

High pressure and associated dry air continue to keep clouds from
building into showers so far this afternoon. However, a short
wave evident on water vapor imagery may be enough to tip the
scales and combine with the cold air aloft to produce a few lake
effect rain showers overnight across portions of northwest and
northeast lower. Elsewhere, clear to partly cloudy skies and light
winds will allow for chilly temperatures once again with a range
between the mid 30s and mid 40s.

Short term (Friday through Sunday)
issued at 245 pm edt Thu aug 22 2019

Quiet and pleasant late-summer weekend...

high impact weather potential: none.

Upper low initially over eastern canada will open up and eject.

500mb ridge axis will build eastward in its wake, and will be
overhead Sat night. A lingering cool airmass could contribute to a
few lake effect showers Friday, especially early. Otherwise, ridging
surface and aloft will provide for quiet and eventually warmer wx.

850mb temps will dip down to around 4c in northern reaches by fri
morning. So the question is whether we can scavenge some lake effect
showers. Fetch is N to nne, circa 10kt, allowing decoupling over
land tonight. Resulting land breeze development will result in mid-
lake convergence early Friday, especially on lake mi (skinny enough
to allow for land breeze collisions). Lake-induced CAPE values will
reach nearly 200j kg on warmer lake mi, closer to 100j kg on
northern lake huron. Pops already exist in portions of NW and ne
lower mi Friday morning. Given all of the above, will be boosting
expanding pops somewhat in NW lower mi, while reducing somewhat in
ne lower. Fetch is unfavorable for eastern upper mi. Land breeze
circulations helping to force these showers will fall apart as the
morning proceeds, and will have no precip in the afternoon.

Surface high pressure will be almost dead overhead Friday night, and
will gradually move east thru the weekend. Ridging will extend
westward back into northern mi, resulting in meager return flow.

Incoming surface cold front is only slowly advancing across the
dakotas on Sunday. So abundant dry air will result in quiet wx and
relatively clear skies.

Max temps Friday still a bit on the cool side, upper 60s to mid 70s.

Saturday will be in the low mid 70s, and 75 to 80f for Sunday. Min
temps 40s Friday night, mid 40s to mid 50s Sat night.

Long term (Sunday night through Thursday)
issued at 245 pm edt Thu aug 22 2019
upper ridge axis will get shunted eastward early next week as energy
advances across the northern states. Some phasing is possible with
ejecting southern stream waves from the mid ms valley. This
eventually carves out an upper low, which gradually wobbles across
manitoba and far northern ontario next week. Precip chances will
increase W to e, mainly on Monday night, gradually exiting with cold
fropa Tuesday. Unfavorable diurnal timing supports removing thunder,
at least for now. Monday will be another relatively warm day ahead
of the front, but the rest of the week will be cooler with the upper
low hovering to our north. For the same reason, sporadic small pops
are in order for the rest of next week.

Aviation (for the 00z tafs through 00z Friday evening)
issued at 700 pm edt Thu aug 22 2019
cool canadian high pressure will continue to build southward into
the upper mississippi valley and the great lakes region thru
Friday night. Overall dry weather is expected... Although there is
an outside chance for a brief light lake effect rain shower late
tonight into Friday morning as cool water rides of the relatively
warm lakes. SolidVFR conditions are expected thru the 24 hour taf
forecast period. Mainly light variable winds tonight will become
north at around 10 kts on Friday.

Marine
Issued at 245 pm edt Thu aug 22 2019
north northwest wind gusts of 15 to 20 knots will continue
through this afternoon but winds and waves should remain below
small craft criteria. Lighter winds overnight into Friday morning
before some gusts to around 15 knots Friday afternoon. However,
still no marine headlines are anticipated.

Apx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lh... None.

Lm... None.

Ls... None.

Update... Mr
near term... As
short term... Jz
long term... Jz
aviation... Mr
marine... As


Weather Reporting Stations
   EDIT       (on/off)   Help   NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map
Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
45183 18 mi35 min WNW 5.8 G 7.8 66°F 69°F1020.9 hPa
GTLM4 - Grand Traverse Light, MI 31 mi43 min NNE 11 G 13 65°F 1019.6 hPa
MEEM4 - Manistee Harbor, MI 52 mi25 min NNE 8 G 11 64°F 1020.7 hPa
BSBM4 - Big Sable Point, MI 68 mi85 min N 9.9 G 13 66°F 1019.6 hPa

Wind History for Ludington, MI
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
Last
24hr
NE1
NE1
NE6
G9
E4
NE2
G6
E2
NE2
E3
E2
E3
E3
E4
E4
G7
N4
G9
N3
G9
NW5
G11
NE6
G10
N8
G14
N8
G13
N7
G11
N5
G9
N5
G9
N4
G8
N2
1 day
ago
E2
SE1
E1
SW1
S7
SW8
G11
SW6
G11
W2
--
E1
W2
G5
W7
G11
W6
G9
W5
NW5
G10
NW5
G8
NW3
G12
NW4
G11
N5
G11
N5
G8
NW2
G7
N5
G8
NE2
NE1
2 days
ago
E1
E2
E2
E3
E3
NE3
E3
NE2
E5
E6
E4
E5
E4
SE4
G7
E3
SW2
G7
W4
W4
W5
SW2
SW3
G9
SW4
G9
SW7
G10
W4

Airport Reports
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help   Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.
AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Cherry Capital Airport, MI3 mi12 minN 010.00 miA Few Clouds60°F48°F67%1019 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KTVC

Wind History from TVC (wind in knots)
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
Last 24hrN8N7N9N7N5SW3CalmCalmCalmCalmW4N10N7
G15
N7N10NE11
G16
N8
G17
N9
G17
NE9N10
G14
N7N7N4Calm
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmS3CalmCalmCalmS3W4CalmNW4W6SW5N8NW8N8N12NW7
G16
NW12
G17
NW8NW11
G16
NW8N7
G17
N6
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE5S6SW5SW7S9
G16
W7NE11
G15
NE7
G17
NE4N4NE3CalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT   Weekend mode (on/off)   (on/off)   Help
Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT      (on/off)   Help
Weather Map and Satellite Images
       (on/off)   HelpWeather Map
wmap_A
GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (22,6,7,8)
      (on/off)   Help

Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
   (on/off)   Help
weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Ad by Google

Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.