Thursday, July18, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Traverse City, MI

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Sunrise 6:12AMSunset 9:17PM Thursday July 18, 2019 1:44 PM EDT (17:44 UTC) Moonrise 9:46PMMoonset 6:43AM Illumination 97% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ323 Grand Traverse Bay South Of A Line Grand Traverse Light To Norwood Mi- 1124 Am Edt Thu Jul 18 2019
Today..Southeast wind 5 to 10 knots becoming west with gusts to around 20 knots in the afternoon. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms through the day. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tonight..South wind 5 to 10 knots with gusts to around 20 knots. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday..Southwest wind 5 to 10 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday night..Light winds. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 2 feet or less. Winds and waves higher in the vicinity of Thunderstorms. SEe the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.
LMZ323 Expires:201907182330;;256651 FZUS53 KAPX 181524 NSHAPX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Gaylord MI 1124 AM EDT Thu Jul 18 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lakes Huron... Michigan and Superior. Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LMZ323-182330-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Traverse City, MI
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location: 44.77, -85.62     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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Fxus63 kapx 181707
afdapx
area forecast discussion
national weather service gaylord mi
107 pm edt Thu jul 18 2019

Update
Issued at 1031 am edt Thu jul 18 2019
early morning convective complex across wi has steadily diminished
in intensity and coverage through the morning hours... Ultimately
leaving little in the way of precipitation expected to affect
northern michigan today. Suite of hi-res guidance has remained
consistent with this thought over the past several hours -
followed by mainly dry conditions continuing to prevail this
afternoon and evening. Only wrench in this thought is the warm
front currently stretched from eastern luce county southward to
near kcad (even picked up well on radar), that's currently kicking
off a few isolated pulse-like non-severe storms across eastern
upper and the tip of the mitt.

Primary updates to today's forecast have been lowering pops area-
wide and diminishing cloud cover for locations east of interstate
75 (or at least slowing the cloud increase) as latest satellite
imagery suggests primarily just cirrus blow off from upstream over
lake michigan and far NW lower.

Near term (today through tonight)
issued at 343 am edt Thu jul 18 2019
impactful weather: chances for showers and thunderstorms. Some
severe storms and heavy rain possible.

Pattern synopsis and forecast:
a shortwave trough and associated sfc low pressure was in ontario
early this morning, with an associated warm front extending se
through the arrowhead of mn through wi down to far SRN lake
michigan. A second shortwave on the SRN end of strong wsw flow
aloft, and it's associated sfc low was seen in ne. Another warm
front extends east through ia, where sfc dew points were as high as
the upper 70s. There were associated llj's resulting in theta-e
advection ahead of these fronts, helping fire off showers and
storms, aided by dpva and upper divergence. These areas of
convection were at the lake superior ontario border, as well as at
the ia mn border. NRN michigan was only seeing some passing high
level clouds.

The aforementioned shortwaves and sfc lows track ene and drag the
warm front from mn wi into NRN michigan late this morning and early
afternoon, while dpva, upper divergence and theta-e advection
increase. This is later than originally expected, but seems like a
decent bet for seeing showers and some thunderstorms at that
time. Provided we do not have any particularly thick convective
debris cloud around, the atmosphere will be able to destabilize
decently to maybe 1000-1500j kg of mlcape, while effective bulk
shear is expected to be an impressive 40kts or so, suggesting the
potential for a few organized storms capable of damaging winds and
large hail. Most of this forcing departs by late afternoon, with
both the nam GFS suggesting subsidence and strong capping of the
atmosphere around 800-850mb, suggesting lesser no further
convective activity. Then things get a little more unclear heading
into tonight. Latest data suggests a second surge of theta-e air
(those high sfc dew points in ia), while a more unidirectional wsw
oriented strengthening LLJ develops, resulting in decent chances
for nocturnal convection while shear remains 35-40kts. This
appears to be more of a chance for NRN lower michigan, but exactly
where is uncertain. If we do get this convection, a continued
chance for some severe storms holds. Heavy rainfall totals are
also possible, as the air mass moistens substantially with pwat's
increasing to 2.00" or maybe more, while storm training is
possible.

After all said, and it's been said over and over, this is
convection, and anything can change in an instant.

Highs today will largely be in the lower to middle 80s, with lows
tonight mainly in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

Short term (Friday through Saturday)
issued at 343 am edt Thu jul 18 2019

Lingering shower and thunderstorm chances...

high impact weather potential... Moderate.

Primary forecast concerns... Dangerously high heat indexes Friday
then pops and the potential for severe storms Friday night into
Saturday
the upper level ridge centered to our south continues to build
northward through Friday before getting suppressed Saturday. This
setup is expected to lead to very uncomfortable to even dangerously
hot and humid conditions across the region (especially Friday).

Convective evolution through this period remains uncertain. The most
likely scenario is for any ongoing convection early Friday to scoot
off to the east Friday morning. A tenuously strong cap will likely
inhibit convective development Friday afternoon, but will have
slight chance pops just in case something is able to pop. Another
round of convection possibly firing off to our west Friday evening
could progress across northern michigan overnight Friday into
Saturday (best chance across northern lower). Heavy rainfall remains
possible with precipitable water values of between a whopping 1.5
and 2.5 inches. In addition, there is still the potential for
damaging wind gusts with 0-6 km bulk shear values remaining between
40 and 50 knots across eastern upper and far northern lower.

Air temperatures are expected to reach into the lower and mid 90s
Friday and combine with dewpoints in the low and mid 70s to likely
produce heat indexes of between 95 and 105 degrees with highest
readings in the southeast part of the forecast area. This would be
heat advisory territory so try to plan accordingly and limit outside
exposure to the Sun and stay hydrated. Temperatures are then
expected to be generally a few degrees cooler Saturday along with
slowly lowering relative humidity levels.

Long term (Saturday night through Wednesday)
issued at 343 am edt Thu jul 18 2019

Cooler and less humid...

high impact weather potential... Little to none expected.

Heights steadily drop off Sunday into early next week before
beginning to rise again toward mid-week. Drier air is expected to
end the shower and thunderstorm threat Sunday. However, there are
still a few extended models that continue pops... Leaving the blend
with slight or low chance pops. Will leave the pops in for now but
wouldn't be surprised if they end up being stripped out by later
shifts. Temperatures will back off Sunday and especially Monday and
Tuesday before rebounding some Wednesday. Humidity levels are
expected to be in the more comfortable range through the period.

Aviation (for the 18z tafs through 18z Friday afternoon)
issued at 105 pm edt Thu jul 18 2019
low pressure will continue to shift northeastward through ontario
this afternoon into the overnight hours. Late this morning early
afternoon... A warm front continues to trek northeast across northern
michigan, resulting in occasionally gusty southwest winds. Much
of the area should remain dry for the afternoon into the evening
hours except for some early taf-period shower thunder chances at
pln and apn... With latest trends suggesting dry weather holds
through much of the overnight hours as well. However, there is a
low chance for isolated shower storm development this evening into
tonight, in which any storm may contain the potential for gusty
wind. Prevailing CIGS expected to beVFR at all TAF sites,
although MVFR ifr certainly possible under any shower storm.

Marine
Issued at 343 am edt Thu jul 18 2019
low pressure moving through ontario today will pull a warm front and
tighter pressure gradient through NRN michigan, resulting in many
nearshore waters around lake michigan likely seeing low end advisory
wind speeds. Another warm front and tightening of the pressure
gradient arrives Friday night into Saturday, resulting in more
potential advisory winds, despite stronger overlake stability. That
remains fairly uncertain however. Through Saturday, there will be
chances for showers and storms with heavy rainfall and some severe
storms possible. The main threats will be for damaging winds and
large hail.

Apx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lh... None.

Lm... Small craft advisory until midnight edt tonight for lmz341-
344>346.

Ls... None.

Update... Mg
near term... Smd
short term... As
long term... As
aviation... Mg
marine... Smd


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
45183 18 mi45 min S 5.8 G 7.8 73°F 67°F1009.1 hPa
MEEM4 - Manistee Harbor, MI 52 mi65 min SE 4.1 G 9.9 78°F 1010.2 hPa
BSBM4 - Big Sable Point, MI 68 mi65 min S 8.9 G 15 75°F 1010.2 hPa

Wind History for Ludington, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Cherry Capital Airport, MI3 mi52 minS 810.00 miOvercast81°F70°F69%1008 hPa

Wind History from TVC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN7NE5N7N6NE5NE4N4CalmCalmCalmSE4SE7SE6S8S6CalmS4S3S6S7S6SW8
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1 day agoSW10
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SW7W9W7W8SW4N5NE3N3N6N6NE6N4N3NE4NE4NE5N6N7N75N7
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.