Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Altoona, WI
October 2, 2023 11:52 PM CDT (04:52 UTC)
Sunrise 7:03AM Sunset 6:46PM Moonrise 7:24PM Moonset 10:08AM
Area Discussion for - Twin Cities, MN
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FXUS63 KMPX 030418 AFDMPX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 1118 PM CDT Mon Oct 2 2023
UPDATE
Issued at 1048 PM CDT Mon Oct 2 2023
Updated to include 06z aviation discussion below.
DISCUSSION
(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 348 PM CDT Mon Oct 2 2023
Key Messages:
- Warmer temps to continue through Tuesday before a cold front approaches from the west, bringing the next chance for rain.
- Cooler air will follow in the wake of the front, with highs in the 40s and 50s on Friday and Saturday. Things will warm up to seasonable by Sunday into Monday.
Lack of sky cover and gusty southerly winds has allowed for another hot October day today, with 90s in western Minnesota and upper 80s elsewhere. Tomorrow will still be warm, especially in areas east of Mankato/St. Cloud, but 90s are unlikely. A cold front is knocking on the door, and will make its way into western Minnesota on Wednesday.
Ahead of the frontal passage, a tightening pressure gradient will lead to gusty (even moreso than today) southerly winds. Most everywhere has a shot at seeing a 30MPH gust Tuesday afternoon and evening. Just as winds peak around sundown, PoPs will return in a west-to-east fashion, ahead of the FroPa. This system is a large- scale system that could bring up to a half inch of QPF to western MN. The farther to the east/south you are, the less rain you will see. A marginal threat for severe weather comes with this front, again, mostly in western Minnesota. PoPs cease midday on Wednesday as the front is overhead. With the ending of PoPs enters cooler temperatures that will be quite the shock compared to this past week's record highs.
Wednesday night through Sunday night...
We'll begin to dry out Wednesday night. Skies will clear and allow temperatures to cool into the upper 40s and lower 50s. Nature has heard our complaints about the late season heat and hopes we'll appreciate the upcoming stretch of below normal temperatures that arrive mid-week. On Thursday, cooler & crisp temperatures settle in behind the front, with highs in the low to mid 60s. Westerly winds also ramp up Thursday afternoon with gusts in excess of 30 mph likely. Our post-frontal air mass will support to slight chances for diurnal pop-up showers, especially along and north of I-94.
Temperatures continue to cool into the weekend, with highs only in the low to mid 50s and lows in the 30s for Friday and Saturday.
Winds will turn more northwesterly for Friday and Saturday, making it feel more like late October or early November. By Saturday, high pressure should build in and bring an end to the rain chances and we should stay dry through early next week. Our cooler than normal temperatures do not stick for long and will start to moderate back above normal on Sunday, with highs back in the 60s.
AVIATION
(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1048 PM CDT Mon Oct 2 2023
VFR for all terminals to start and will continue as such through tonight and the first half of tomorrow with only FEW/SCT passing high clouds. High ceilings will develop from west to east during the day tomorrow into tomorrow evening in advance of an approaching cold front. Precipitation chances ramp up rather steeply late tomorrow afternoon into tomorrow evening, so have added mention of SHRA/RA at all TAF sites from 00z onward Tuesday evening. The expectation is that a line of rain with embedded thunderstorms will move west-to- east across MN into WI, with best chances for TSRA at the MN TAF sites. Fairly high confidence and consistency in most models allows for inclusion of TEMPO CB/TS in the MN TAF sites during the evening.
Same models also show the line falling apart at it moves into WI so there is much lower confidence at RNH/EAU to include CB/TS at this point. Breezy/gusty S winds will persist throughout this TAF duration, especially after daybreak Tuesday. Continued nocturnal jetting is expected over western MN which again looks to produce a period of overnight LLWS.
KMSP...Have continued mention of prevailing SHRA/RA at MSP in the early evening, but have now added a TS TEMPO late Tuesday evening as confidence is higher and timing fits better in this issuance. Have kept conditions as MVFR at this point but IFR under any heavier downpours is not unreasonable.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ Wed...MVFR early, then VFR. Wind W 15G25 kts.
Thu...Mainly VFR. Slight Chc afternoon MVFR/SHRA. Wind NW 15-25 gusting 25-35 kts.
Fri...Chc MVFR/SHRA. Wind NW 15-25 gusting 25-30 kts.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...None.
WI...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 1118 PM CDT Mon Oct 2 2023
UPDATE
Issued at 1048 PM CDT Mon Oct 2 2023
Updated to include 06z aviation discussion below.
DISCUSSION
(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 348 PM CDT Mon Oct 2 2023
Key Messages:
- Warmer temps to continue through Tuesday before a cold front approaches from the west, bringing the next chance for rain.
- Cooler air will follow in the wake of the front, with highs in the 40s and 50s on Friday and Saturday. Things will warm up to seasonable by Sunday into Monday.
Lack of sky cover and gusty southerly winds has allowed for another hot October day today, with 90s in western Minnesota and upper 80s elsewhere. Tomorrow will still be warm, especially in areas east of Mankato/St. Cloud, but 90s are unlikely. A cold front is knocking on the door, and will make its way into western Minnesota on Wednesday.
Ahead of the frontal passage, a tightening pressure gradient will lead to gusty (even moreso than today) southerly winds. Most everywhere has a shot at seeing a 30MPH gust Tuesday afternoon and evening. Just as winds peak around sundown, PoPs will return in a west-to-east fashion, ahead of the FroPa. This system is a large- scale system that could bring up to a half inch of QPF to western MN. The farther to the east/south you are, the less rain you will see. A marginal threat for severe weather comes with this front, again, mostly in western Minnesota. PoPs cease midday on Wednesday as the front is overhead. With the ending of PoPs enters cooler temperatures that will be quite the shock compared to this past week's record highs.
Wednesday night through Sunday night...
We'll begin to dry out Wednesday night. Skies will clear and allow temperatures to cool into the upper 40s and lower 50s. Nature has heard our complaints about the late season heat and hopes we'll appreciate the upcoming stretch of below normal temperatures that arrive mid-week. On Thursday, cooler & crisp temperatures settle in behind the front, with highs in the low to mid 60s. Westerly winds also ramp up Thursday afternoon with gusts in excess of 30 mph likely. Our post-frontal air mass will support to slight chances for diurnal pop-up showers, especially along and north of I-94.
Temperatures continue to cool into the weekend, with highs only in the low to mid 50s and lows in the 30s for Friday and Saturday.
Winds will turn more northwesterly for Friday and Saturday, making it feel more like late October or early November. By Saturday, high pressure should build in and bring an end to the rain chances and we should stay dry through early next week. Our cooler than normal temperatures do not stick for long and will start to moderate back above normal on Sunday, with highs back in the 60s.
AVIATION
(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1048 PM CDT Mon Oct 2 2023
VFR for all terminals to start and will continue as such through tonight and the first half of tomorrow with only FEW/SCT passing high clouds. High ceilings will develop from west to east during the day tomorrow into tomorrow evening in advance of an approaching cold front. Precipitation chances ramp up rather steeply late tomorrow afternoon into tomorrow evening, so have added mention of SHRA/RA at all TAF sites from 00z onward Tuesday evening. The expectation is that a line of rain with embedded thunderstorms will move west-to- east across MN into WI, with best chances for TSRA at the MN TAF sites. Fairly high confidence and consistency in most models allows for inclusion of TEMPO CB/TS in the MN TAF sites during the evening.
Same models also show the line falling apart at it moves into WI so there is much lower confidence at RNH/EAU to include CB/TS at this point. Breezy/gusty S winds will persist throughout this TAF duration, especially after daybreak Tuesday. Continued nocturnal jetting is expected over western MN which again looks to produce a period of overnight LLWS.
KMSP...Have continued mention of prevailing SHRA/RA at MSP in the early evening, but have now added a TS TEMPO late Tuesday evening as confidence is higher and timing fits better in this issuance. Have kept conditions as MVFR at this point but IFR under any heavier downpours is not unreasonable.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ Wed...MVFR early, then VFR. Wind W 15G25 kts.
Thu...Mainly VFR. Slight Chc afternoon MVFR/SHRA. Wind NW 15-25 gusting 25-35 kts.
Fri...Chc MVFR/SHRA. Wind NW 15-25 gusting 25-30 kts.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...None.
WI...None.
toggle option: (graph/table)
Airport Reports
EDIT (on/off) Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KEAU CHIPPEWA VALLEY RGNL,WI | 6 sm | 56 min | S 10 | 10 sm | Clear | 73°F | 57°F | 57% | 30.03 | |
Wind History from EAU
(wind in knots)
La Crosse, WI,
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