Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Little Sturgeon, WI

DISCUSSION
Issued at 1035 AM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

This afternoon... CAMs remain unimpressed with storm potential, let alone severe weather potential, for this afternoon as guidance shows better convergence along the front off to our south. This being said, modest instability (500 to 1,000 J/kg MUCAPE) continues to build under mostly clear skies, which may be sufficient for convective initiation over east-central Wisconsin within the next hour or two. If a stronger storm were to develop, steepening lapse rates, elongated hodographs, and 40+ knots of bulk shear would support gusty winds and hail as the primary concerns. Window for any stronger storms remains tight, with 20 to 30% PoPs going until around 5 PM. Lack of upper support should prevent any storm organization. All of this to say, odds are looking better for most areas remaining dry throughout the afternoon.

Extended... Pattern shift to cooler and more showery takes place over the course of the next week as closed upper low sitting and spinning over the Hudson Bay puts us under northwesterly flow regime. Result will be temperatures running around 5 to 10 degrees below normal, with highs reading mainly in the upper 60s to mid 70s.

Several chances for showers then exist throughout the week as multiple shortwaves migrate through the base of a broader longwave trough. The first of these chances arrives in the vicinity of a surface low Monday into Tuesday, though better chances for more widespread rain will be Wednesday into Thursday as PWATs increase into the 1 to 1.25" range. It is still too soon to explicitly determine severe weather potential during this time, though a cursory glance shows instability to be fairly weak.

AVIATION
for 06Z TAF Issuance Issued at 1022 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

Primarily VFR conditions are forecast through the TAF periods, with the exceptions being a period of possible MVFR status across northern and central WI Sunday morning.

A surface frontal boundary has pushed south across the region this evening and currently snakes from KSBM southwest to KDBQ. North of the boundary low and mid level northwesterly flow has lead to the development of stratocumulus based around 4.5-6 kft across northern WI. As the northwesterly flow continues overnight expect these low end VFR cigs to gradually lower and overspread the entire region.
Cigs across central and northern WI are expected to descend to around 2-2.5 kft (MVFR) between 07-12Z. These lower cigs should start to rise and scatter out as much drier air pushes into the region mid Sunday morning.

Northwest winds will become breezy again Sunday with gusts increasing to 18-20kts after 14-16Z.

MARINE
Issued at 1035 AM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

Post-frontal winds continue to ramp up and veer to northwesterly early this afternoon. As such, gusts to 25 knots will be possible along the Lake Michigan shoreline through this evening, though waves should be held down to generally 1 to 3 ft. Have opted to hold onto the Small Craft Advisory, though marginal, due to warm weather and weekend status. The Advisory remains in effect until 5 PM today.

GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.