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FXUS61 KBTV 041142 AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 642 AM EST Mon Dec 4 2023

SYNOPSIS
Area of rain and snow will gradually taper towards the higher summits this afternoon with temperatures warming near to above freezing today. Snow showers will increase in coverage this evening as wrap around moisture moves in from the northwest. As temperatures fall below freezing tonight, areas of standing water may become black ice on untreated surfaces overnight.
Conditions will trend cooler, with intermittent periods of showers as we head into mid week. By week's end, temperatures will climb well above normal.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
As of 633 AM EST Monday...Low pressure is positioned somewhere just north of Ellenburg Center, New York. Outside of northern Vermont, snow and rain is really beginning to taper off, and temperatures have been making notable jumps by 2 to 4 degrees already this morning and pushing several locations up above the freezing mark. There have been several reports of outages and poor road conditions, especially across eastern Vermont and western Clinton County, New York, along with a few snapped trees. It seems that despite the lack of an anticipated heavier snow band, that we've still come close to reaching expected forecast impacts for this event within our headlines at the very least.

As the day progresses, most areas should warm near freezing up to 40. This should begin to limit impacts, with additional rain or snow showers likely today while low pressure slowly slides east and mid- level deformation with plenty of wrap around moisture allowing continued snow showers. Flow will be sub- critical this afternoon, and should favor the mountain peaks, but become semi-blocked into the evening, with snow gradually building back down towards the western facing hillsides.
Additional accumulations mainly between 0.5-2" with the highest in the Northeast Kingdom of Vermont. Mountain summits will likely pick up another 2-5" in "bonus" snow.

Temperatures are expected to cool below freezing tonight, and with the 0.66"-1.00" of liquid that will have fallen across the region by the end of today, some patchy black ice will be possible on untreated roadways with overnight lows sinking into the 20s for most. These temperatures will be slow to warm on Tuesday, with upper 20s to lower 30s for daytime highs, though with some mid 30s in the southern extent of each of our 3 major valleys.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
As of 300 AM EST Monday...Base of upper level trough will pass southwest of our region overnight, and our region should mainly remain dry. Low temperatures will dip into the teens and lower 20s. Have just a slight chance of snow showers in the Adirondacks mentioned. Surface ridge will build into the area on Wednesday, and another dry period is expected. It will be a dry but cool day with highs about ten degrees below seasonal normals, generally reaching the mid 20s to lower 30s.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 300 AM EST Monday...A generally quiet weather pattern is expected from Wednesday night through Friday night. Will have a little bit of a chance for showers Thursday and Thursday night with some weak upper level shortwave energy crossing our area, but this feature should not be very impactful. As we head into the weekend, our attention turns to next potentially impactful system, though this far out still a lot to be determined as we get closer to the event. At this time, models indicate a large scale system to impact our region, likely in the second half of the weekend. A low pressure system will track northeastward from the Ohio river valley towards western New York Saturday night, and some rain will possibly spread into our region in southerly flow out ahead of the system. Low deepens and lifts west of our forecast area on Sunday, which would mean rain for the north country. Rain continues into Sunday night as a cold front crosses the area, possibly briefly changing to snow before ending. This system is still quite far out, and will likely change quite a bit before we reach next weekend. We'll continue to keep an eye on it and watch model trends. Currently GFS, ECMWF and CMC all have the low tracking west of us, with some differences in timing.

AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Through 12Z Tuesday...A mix of flight rules are currently being observed with a mix of rain and snow across the area.
Precipitation will gradually decrease through about 16z-18z before wrap around precipitation returns beyond 18z moving northwest across the St. Lawrence Valley to southeast and reaching Vermont about 20z. Before wrap around rain or snow arrives, brief improvements to VFR or MVFR are likely. South to southwest winds around 5 knots will trend variable and then northwesterly beyond 20z. Once low pressure shifts northeast of the area, ceilings will again fall towards 1200-2000 ft agl, locally into IFR. Snow showers will favor northwestern slopes overnight, most likely impacting KSLK, KBTV, and KEFK. These snow showers should begin to lift after 06z Tuesday.

Outlook...

Tuesday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Slight chance SHSN.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: VFR. Slight chance SHSN.
Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance SHSN.
Friday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Slight chance SHRA.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for VTZ006>008-010-016>018.
Winter Storm Warning until 10 AM EST this morning for VTZ003- 004.
NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for NYZ026-027.
Winter Storm Warning until 10 AM EST this morning for NYZ031.

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Sorel
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Mon -- 02:22 AM EST     0.94 meters Low Tide
Mon -- 07:17 AM EST     Sunrise
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Mon -- 12:31 PM EST     Moonset
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