NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
As of 744 PM EDT Saturday...The forecast for this evening remains in great shape from the previous discussion with the cold front now pushing through eastern Vermont and the back edge of post- frontal rain coming into the Champlain Valley. We should see steady rain end in the Champlain Valley in the next hour or so, and eastern Vermont by 11 PM with isolated showers lingering across the higher terrain through the night. Temps continue to fall sharply into the 50s behind the front as well, and remain on track to bottom out in the 40s overnight.

Previous Discussion...The cold front continues its eastward march through the region this afternoon. It is currently moving across the Champlain Valley, as evidenced by sharply falling temperatures now making it into eastern Clinton/Essex Counties. Main area of rain is lagging just a bit behind, but overall the expectations for the remainder of today into tonight remain unchanged. Temperatures will fall some 10 degrees once the front moves through, and the band of precipitation will move into the Champlain Valley late this afternoon/early evening, and into eastern VT by dark or shortly thereafter. A much colder and drier airmass will quickly rush in after the frontal passage, bringing the bulk of the rain to an end. However, a few showers may linger overnight into early Sunday, especially over portions of the Adirondacks as west winds interact with the warmer waters and enhanced moisture of Lake Ontario. As the upper low pivots just west of the St Lawrence Valley, the cold pool aloft will overspread the region, lowering freezing levels to 2000-4000 ft. So precipitation could well fall as some snow at higher elevations, especially the High Peaks of the Adirondacks, should showers persist long enough tonight. Moisture will become quite shallow though and well below the favored snow growth zone, so any snow accumulation would be pretty minimal, perhaps trending more towards rime. Away from the summits, lows tonight will still be pretty chilly, ranging from the upper 30s in the Adirondacks to the mid/upper 40s in the Champlain/Connecticut Valleys.

Sunday will definitely be quite a change from what we've seen over the past few days as the upper low spins along north of the international border. Highs will only be in the 50s to around 60F, and wouldn't be surprised if some locations struggle to hit the 50F mark. It will also be pretty blustery, as lapse rates will be quite steep, mixing down a 50kt 800mb jet, which will only add to the chill. As noted by the previous forecaster, these conditions will be heightened in the higher terrain, where highs will only be in the 30s to around 40F and winds will be gusting to 40 mph or more. As such, wind chills in the upper teens to upper 20s can be expect at summit level, so anyone planning on hiking in the higher elevations should prepare accordingly and dress warmly. Even below summit level, gusts to 30 mph will be possible. The steep lapse rates and gusty west winds will also serve to allow for isolated to scattered showers to develop, especially downwind of Lake Ontario as the air crosses the warmer waters. However, flow will be strong enough that some of this activity could make it into the northern/central Greens. Elsewhere, some pop up showers will be possible, especially later in the afternoon as the base of the upper trough swings overhead. Thunderstorms aren't expected, but any more robust activity could produce gusty winds and briefly heavy rainfall. Any showers will wind down Sunday night once we lose daytime heating.
Winds will subside as well, and skies will gradually clear. It will be another chilly night, with lows in the upper 30s to upper 40s.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT/
As of 319 PM EDT Saturday...An upper level shortwave trough and associated synoptic moisture will swing through slightly south and west of the forecast area at the start of the work week. Surface winds will be brisk out of the southwest to west, gusting 10 to 20 knots, perhaps up to 35 knots on the highest peaks in the morning.
All of this will lead to increasing clouds throughout the day and about 20-60% chance of showers. Most likely spot for precipitation will be St. Lawrence County, downwind of Lake Ontario due to lake enhancement, as well as southern and western zones of the forecast area, closest to the shortwave's forcing. Meanwhile, places like the Northeast Kingdom are more likely to stay dry.

Surface CAPE values are modeled at around 200-900 J/kg Monday afternoon, so a rumble of thunder is not out of the question.
Rainfall amounts will stay generally below a tenth of an inch. Highs will be a bit warmer Monday in the mid 60s to lower 70s with the warming SW winds, but still cooler than seasonal averages. Showers will dwindle Monday night, and we'll see a decrease in clouds as the shortwave trough shifts eastward, replaced by dry air. Light gradient winds are expected to fight some radiational cooling with lows in the mid 40s to lower 50s, again a few degrees below climatological normals. There could be some patchy fog in protected valley locations, but the gradient winds and dry air will make fog forecasting tricky.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
As of 319 PM EDT Saturday...High pressure will keep conditions dry and quiet Tuesday onward. Temperatures are anticipated to trend upwards throughout the week, with highs starting slightly below average in the upper 60s to lower 70s Tuesday, then rising above average by Friday, in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Lows will also be on the rise, starting mid 40s to lower 50s Tuesday night and ending up in the 50s for most by Friday night, though this could depend on cloud cover and radiational cooling. Overnight fog is also possible on these clear, calm nights.

AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
Through 06Z Monday...Rainfall has largely tapered off across the region with just some scattered showering lingering. Pockets of MVFR ceilings are expected to continue through the pre-dawn hours but mostly VFR conditions are expected through the remainder of the TAF period. Gusty winds will be the biggest concern on Sunday as wind gusts upwards of 30 knots from the west will impact all terminals leading to cross winds at many airports. Winds will diminish slightly after 00Z but will remain 10 knots or greater through 06Z Monday.

Outlook...

Monday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...None.
NY...None.