Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Chazy, NY

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 854 AM EST Saturday...Just some minor tweaks to keep light snows going, esp. in the Champlain Valley until late morning before tapering off for a few hours this afternoon/early evening. Additional accumulations of up to 1 inch are possible.
We are approaching the 4 inch mark here at BTV, though high snow ratios of 30/40:1 are keeping things quite fluffy and with minor impacts. Have a great day.

Previous discussion...
Its been a wonderful pattern lately and a great start to the ski/ride season with daily refills associated with mid/upper lvl trof and embedded pieces of energy acrs the NE CONUS. The combination of a weak 5h vort, a pocket of mid level moisture, upslope flow and favorable thermal dynamics/rh in snow growth region, has produced another round of localized 1 to 4 inches of snow acrs parts of the cwa this morning. Water vapor shows weak 5h vort near International Border with cooling cloud tops on the latest IR imagery, while radar shows enhanced reflectivity on the east side of the CPV and upslope regions of the Greens/Dacks. Localized developed Froude number shows blocked flow with values <1.0 this morning, but given dynamics aloft activity is advecting downwind of the spine into central VT mtns. Also, given very favorable moisture/rh in the DGZ and some weak omega, fluff factor has been big with ratios 20/30 to 1.
Latest webcam at Stowe shows at least 4 inches in the past 24 hours, while a quick walk outside here at BTV, indicates nearly 2 inches since midnight (finally our 1st inch). Have continued to mention pops near 100% in favorable upslope/convergence areas thru 12/14z, before moisture/lift decreases. Total snowfall generally 1 to 3 inches, however localized 3 to 6 inches possible in upslope areas, given fluff factor minimal impacts anticipated. Outside the localized light snow, mostly flurries with little accumulation expected thru this morning. Temps remain below normal today with highs mostly in the 20s, except teens on the summits. Winds are generally light and variable this morning, but shift to the south ahead of our next system by this aftn.

The classic bread and butter pattern conts tonight into Sunday with our next clipper like system arriving. Water vapor already showing compact s/w energy approaching the western Great Lakes with region of impressive cooling cloud tops associated with waa lift and mid lvl moisture. This system is expected to quickly impact the fa from west to east this evening with another round of light to moderate snow. Unlike this morning, 925mb to 850mb wind fields increase btwn 25 and 45 knots from the southwest, so localized shadowing and trrn enhanced qpf/snowfall is likely. Unlike our last clipper, the core of strongest llvl wind fields wl shift just to our south, placing northern Dacks in favorable region of enhanced moisture convergence/forcing. In addition to the speed convergence and moderately strong thermal advection wl result in a favorable 850 to 700mb fgen band moving from southwest to northeast acrs our cwa tonight, helping to enhance snowfall rates. Given the warming thermal profiles, the snow growth zone increases overnight and with stronger winds, expect lowering ratios, especially toward Sunday morning. Given this scenario, expected snowfall accumulations have not changed with 3 to 7 inches in the advisory and 1 to 4 inches elsewhere, except localized 4 to 8 inches from Jay Peak to Mansfield to Killington Peak. CPV and lower CT River Valley looking at a dusting to 2 inches, as impacts from downslope flow limits snowfall accumulations in these areas. Localized wind gusts 25 to 35 mph likely eastern Dacks and parts of the CPV overnight into Sunday. Areas of slick/hazardous travel likely overnight into Sunday, along with another powder day on the slopes, which wl require me to do some product testing after my shift. Precip may end as a little light rain in the valleys and pockets of freezing drizzle in the mtns as rh in snow growth zone quickly decreases and bl temps in the valleys warm into the mid/upper 30s per NAM 3KM sounding data. Something to monitor on Sunday.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
As of 340 AM EST Saturday...Mainly dry and seasonably cold weather is anticipated Sunday night as 1023mb high pressure slides across Quebec. Lows will fall into the upper teens in the Northeast Kingdom to low and mid 20s elsewhere as surface winds become light and variable.

Our next weather-maker is expected to arrive Monday morning as a low pressure moves northeast across Lake Superior and a second low develops over New Jersey, attached by a warm front. Winds turning southeasterly will advect in Gulf and Atlantic moisture. Chances of precipitation increase from southwest to northeast throughout the day Monday. As warm frontal air slides above the previous night's cooler air, we expect an atmospheric inversion to setup, triggering the potential for freezing rain in some spots. Highs in the mid 30s to lower 40s are forecast. Highest chances for precipitation occur in the afternoon and evening hours on Monday with temperatures falling into the mid 20s to lower 30s Monday night. Monday night, low pressure 1 will pull northeastward towards James Bay and low pressure 2 moves across coastal southern New England.

Total QPF amounts Sunday night through Monday night are about 0.10- 0.40" with highest amounts in southern Vermont. This will result in snow amounts through the same time period of a dusting to a half an inch and up to 1-2 inches in higher elevations and east of the Greens as that area will likely hold onto cold air and snow longer than the rest. From freezing rain, we are looking at up to a couple tenths of an inch in isolated spots total. Most likely location to see freezing rain will be the St. Lawrence Valley.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
As of 340 AM EST Saturday...Midweek will feature another round of precipitation as a cold front swings through with a deepening negatively tilting upper level trough. Precipitable water values will near an inch Tuesday night/Wednesday with a low level jet setup favorable for heavy precipitation. Precipitation is likely to start as rain outside of higher elevations with highs in the upper 30s to mid 40s, then turn to snow Wednesday night as temperatures fall below freezing once again. We are closely monitoring this midweek period for excessive rainfall and the risk of flash flooding.
Nothing concrete yet, but favorable conditions and dynamics combined with snowmelt in the mountains and rain running off frozen grounds in the valleys warrants a close eye, and we'll know more details in the coming days. Following the cold front, temperatures look to fall towards normal again.

AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
Through 18Z Sunday...A mix of VFR/MVFR to transition to widespread IFR in the 22-04Z time frame as clipper low and associated light snows move into the region. Some spotty very light snows/flurries possible before this time frame, but should not be impactful. IFR light snows continue through the overnight hours, tapering off to scattered flurries and/or patchy -fzdz after 12Z Sunday with widespread MVFR/IFR cigs continuing along with areas of mist. Winds generally variable less than 7 knots through 00Z, then trending south/southwest 8 to 15 kts and gusty thereafter with areas of west-southwesterly LLWS to 35-45 kts at selected terminals from 06Z onward.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Monday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SN, Chance RA, Chance FZRA.
Monday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Likely SN, Definite FZRA.
Tuesday: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Chance RA, Chance SN.
Tuesday Night: Mainly IFR, with areas MVFR possible. Likely RA, Likely SN.
Wednesday: Mainly IFR, with local MVFR possible. Definite RA, Definite SN.
Wednesday Night: Mainly IFR, with areas MVFR possible. Likely SN.
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SN, Slight chance SHSN.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...None.
NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST Sunday for NYZ026-029- 030-087.