Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Chazy, NY

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
As of 648 PM EDT Monday...Weather conditions are rather quiet. A few showers had popped up across the St. Lawrence Valley, but have since dissipated. Isolated shower activity remains possible, but it should be a relatively pleasant evening. Enjoy! Previous discussion below...

A few showers are expected to bubble up this afternoon, particularly on the High Peaks of the Adirondacks and into portions of the St Lawrence Valley. Any showers that do develop will be few and far between though, and much of the area will remain dry this evening. However, moisture will start to increase overnight and into Tuesday as the ridge starts to shift eastward and south flow strengthens. The main impacts of this overnight will be increasing cloud cover. We start our trend toward uncomfortable nights tonight, with lows generally in the mid 50s to mid 60s, though the far Northeast Kingdom may be able to dip down into the 40s.

Shower chances will increase during the day Tuesday as moisture continues to lift over a nearly stationary boundary draped just to our south. The most widespread shower activity will be across central and southern VT, closer to the boundary. But better chances for a few thunderstorms will be along the international border, particularly in northern NY, as an upper trough approaches from the west.

High temperatures for tomorrow are a touch tricky. A weak low pressure and the retreating high will allow low-level flow to trend a bit more easterly during the afternoon, mainly east of the Greens.
This will bring some maritime influence, and the cool, moist air will help keep temperatures quite cool for mid June. Have lowered expected highs several degrees in eastern VT, and less so from the Champlain Valley westward as flow should remain more southerly there. Highs will mainly be in the mid 70s to around 80F, while eastern VT should stay in the upper 60s to low 70s.

Showers will linger into Tuesday night, again remaining mostly focused over central/southern areas closer to the boundary. It'll be an even more muggy night than tonight, with lows remaining in the 60s areawide.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
As of 316 PM EDT Monday...Another day of warming temperatures and increasing humidity can be expected for Wednesday as an upper level trough gradually approaches the region. High temperatures look to warm into the low to mid 80s across the region, with dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s making it quite muggy. A few showers will be possible throughout the day on Wednesday, with plenty of moisture and instability available, although a lack of forcing and weak shear will help limit any thunderstorm development. Any thunderstorms and showers that do develop will likely feature periods of moderate to heavy rainfall given abundant moisture, with PWAT values in excess of an inch. Surface winds will also be light, which could lead to slow-moving storms and enhance rainfall amounts. The warm and humid conditions will continue overnight Wednesday, with overnight lows only dropping into the 60s, with parts of the Champlain Valley hardly dropping below 70.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
As of 316 PM EDT Monday...A period of active weather is in store for the region on Thursday as an upper level trough and associated cold front approach the region. Another warm day can be expected across the region, with high temperatures once again in the 80s. With all of the heat and moisture, as well as a favorable position of the upper level trough, plenty of instability and thunderstorm development looks likely for Thursday. With PWAT values near or in excess of 1.5 inches on Thursday, plenty of heavy rain can be expected within any convection, with WPC maintaining the region in a Marginal Risk for Excessive Rainfall. Behind the cold front, conditions will trend more comfortable with decreased humidity and more seasonable temperatures for Friday into the weekend. Highs on Friday look to be in 70s, with a period of drier weather expected for Saturday. Looking ahead, strong ridging looks to build in for the start of next week, with another period of unseasonably warm temperatures possible.

AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Through 18Z Tuesday...VFR conditions with SCT-BKN ceilings AOA 3500 ft to prevail through at least the first half of the TAF forecast, then lowering ceilings to MVFR at all terminals by 12z Tue. A few afternoon showers are possible, but coverage will be too isolated to include a mention in TAFs at this time. Ceilings lower with increasing moisture overnight, reaching 1500-2500 ft by 12z Tue and remaining so thereafter. South winds 5-10 kt with localized gusts to 20 kt this afternoon, subsiding to around 5 kt after 00z Tue.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Wednesday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Thursday: VFR. Likely SHRA, Chance TSRA.
Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Friday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...None.
NY...None.