Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for St. Paul Park, MN

DISCUSSION
Issued at 228 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025

A remarkably deep surface low (earlier as low as 980 mb) is tracking across central Minnesota this afternoon. Steady wind- driven light rain to the south of the low will continue to overspread the entire forecast area through the remainder of the afternoon and evening then gradually taper off overnight.
Precipitation amounts will be light, generally less than a few tenths of an inch at most. Gusty winds will decrease a bit but still gust as high as 30-40 mph at times this afternoon and again overnight as winds switch to northwesterly following the passage of the low to the north.

Saturday will be dry precip-wise but steady cyclonic low-level flow/cold air advection through the day will keep persistent cloud cover in place and will also keep temperatures confined to the lower/middle 50s through the day, and parts of central MN may not make it out of the upper 40s. Clouds will scatter out a bit on Sunday allowing temperatures to rise into the upper 50s and lower/middle 60s.

The next system of interest will track into the Central Plains/Midwest early next week with a surface low tracking across northern MO/southern IA. This track will keep any threat for strong storms well to the south of the area, and a recent southerly trend of this track may mean precip struggles to make it any further north than the I-94 corridor. Should this system trend a bit northward it could bring some beneficial rains of 1" to 2" into southern MN, but for now this seems more likely to occur across Iowa. Ridging behind this system will finally bring temperatures back to near normal (low 70s) by Thursday and Friday.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
Issued at 1236 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025

Occasional light rain and gusty SW winds will continue through much of the afternoon in MN and will overspread western WI over the next several hours. Cigs have been slower to drop than guidance had suggested but still seeing cigs drop into MVFR shortly after the onset of light rain, and will eventually see IFR this evening and overnight. Winds are currently about the strongest we will see today with a slight decrease through the afternoon. They will then increase again overnight following a shift to NWerly. Rain will exit from west to east late tonight with IFR cigs continuing into the morning hours.

KMSP...Light rain has started and will continue off-and-on through the evening, gradually tapering off after 09Z. SWerly crosswind continues through the afternoon with some gusts to 35kt possible over the next 1-2 hours, but these should decrease to below 30kts after 19-20Z. Wind shift to westerly will arrive around 01Z, and continue to veer to NWerly by 03Z. Some increase in gusts to as high as 30 kts possible overnight after this wind shift with decreasing gusts tomorrow morning and afternoon.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ SUN...VFR. Wind NE 5-10 kts.
MON...Mainly VFR. Chance MVFR/SHRA. Wind E 10-15G25kts.
TUE...Mainly VFR. Chance MVFR/SHRA. Wind E 10-15G25kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for Blue Earth-Brown- Chippewa-Faribault-Freeborn-Lac Qui Parle-Le Sueur-Martin- Nicollet-Redwood-Renville-Sibley-Steele-Waseca-Watonwan- Yellow Medicine.
WI...None.