Sunday, February28, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
St. Paul Park, MN

Version 3.4
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1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:49AMSunset 6:00PM Sunday February 28, 2021 9:29 PM CST (03:29 UTC) Moonrise 7:47PMMoonset 7:56AM Illumination 94% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near St. Paul Park, MN
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location: 44.83, -93     debug


Area Discussion for - Twin Cities, MN
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FXUS63 KMPX 282343 AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 543 PM CST Sun Feb 28 2021

UPDATE. Issued at 535 PM CST Sun Feb 28 2021

Updated to include 00z aviation discussion below.

SHORT TERM. (This evening through Monday night) Issued at 257 PM CST Sun Feb 28 2021

Skies have quickly cleared out this afternoon in the wake of this mornings snow as we have gotten into subsidence behind the upper wave that brought us the snow. However, if you look up in Alberta/Saskatchewan, you'll find a compact, 160 kt northwesterly jet streak aimed right at us. Models are in pretty good agreement on a batch of snow moving down from Alexandria, to the Twin Cities and off to Red Wing late tonight into Monday morning. Given the model agreement, used CONSshort for PoPs and favored QPF toward probability matched mean values of the hi-res models, with snow snow totals around an inch running down I-94 from Alexandria into the Twin Cities metro. Though the snow should be done by sunrise, it will be happening late enough in the night to where it will probably still slow up the Monday morning commute in the Twin Cities a little. Behind this wave, it's subsidence and mainly clear skies the rest of Monday and Monday night.

For temepratures, we'll see a brief hit of WAA tonight ahead of this shortwave, with rising temperatures expected the first half of the night in southwest MN, before temperatures crash late in the night in the CAA behind it. We'll see h85 temps behind the wave tonight dip down to around -12C, so we continued to nudge down highs a little for Monday, with low to mid 20s now expected, or about 10 degrees below normal. Even if temperatures over achieve tomorrow, we're still only looking at highs in the upper 20s. After this mornings system, western MN has gone from mostly snow free to snow covered, so it will make it more difficult for them to overachieve on highs. For Monday night, we'll see winds turn to the south and WAA commence, but depending on how long areas east of I-35 can stay decouple, we may see some places make a run for 0F as we get one last cold morning before a milder airmass arrives.

LONG TERM. (Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 257 PM CST Sun Feb 28 2021

With dry weather anticipated the entire period, the only forecast problem to discuss is our expected temperatures. Temperatures are forecast to warm, however, perhaps not as much as initially forecast. We can partially thank the fresh layer of snow that fell this weekend. While highs should be well above freezing, the increased albedo and eventual melting of the snow will keep temperatures cooler. Additional cloud cover may also be a possibility throughout this week due to greater moisture in the low- level vertical profile. Another reason we’ll struggle to warm is after a weak cold frontal passage Tuesday, the Upper Midwest gets placed in west-northwesterly flow limiting how much low-level WAA is able to occur. This keeps 850 mb temperatures below freezing for most of the MPX CWA until at least next weekend. Have kept NBM’s lows and highs throughout the week. However, some adjustments downward could be necessary, especially Tuesday through Wednesday night. Mid-week highs should still make the upper 30s with lower to mid 40s in some areas, especially western MN.

Towards the end of this week, upper-level ridging is forecast to build over the Intermountain West into western Canada. Meanwhile, a deepening upper-level low over eastern Canada should halt the eastward progress of the ridge until early next week. This likely places MN/WI within the northerly flow transition between the two features. In addition, the synoptic setup is favorable for the development of a surface high pressure system over the Hudson Bay. In this scenario, easterly low-level flow would be favored for the Upper Midwest, which could halt the eastward advancement of the warm, downsloped air on the lee side of the Rocky Mountains. Thus, delaying warming our low-level temperatures until the high weakens or shifts eastward. More time is needed to see if this scenario plays out but, latest model trends hint that next weekend could also be cooler than initially thought.

AVIATION. (For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening) Issued at 535 PM CST Sun Feb 28 2021

VFR conditions for all terminals at initialization. Waiting on a quick-moving wave coming out of south-central Canada tonight which will shift across central-southern MN overnight through daybreak Monday morning. Will essentially track down I-94, bringing about an inch of snow accumulation across the region, with snowfall duration lasting around 3 hours (give-or-take an hour either way). Snowfall looks to end around 09z in western MN, around 12z in eastern MN and around 13z in western WI. MVFR-IFR conditions likely, with MVFR for ceilings and IFR due to visibility with the snowfall intensity. Quick clearing on the backside of the wave with VFR conditions expected by late Monday morning through the duration of the period. After breezy winds diminish this evening, winds speeds to remain under 10kt throughout.

KMSP . Snowfall expected to reach MSP by around 09z and last until 12z, potentially to 13z. Brief bout of IFR conditions likely, due to visibility, with MVFR ceilings. Conditions to quickly improve once the snowfall ends and shifts east away from the area.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ Tue . VFR. Wind SW bcmg W 10-20 kts. Wed . VFR. Wind NW 5 kts. Thu . VFR. Wind E 5 kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MN . None. WI . None.

UPDATE . JPC SHORT TERM . MPG LONG TERM . CTG AVIATION . JPC


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Downtown Holman Field, MN8 mi36 minWNW 1210.00 miFair21°F11°F65%1018.3 hPa
South St. Paul Municipal-Richard E. Flemi, MN8 mi34 minW 710.00 miFair21°F11°F65%1017.3 hPa
Minneapolis, Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport, MN12 mi36 minW 910.00 miFair20°F11°F68%1018.6 hPa
Lake Elmo Airport, MN14 mi45 minno data10.00 miFair19°F10°F68%1016.6 hPa
Minneapolis, Airlake Airport, MN18 mi54 minW 910.00 miFair18°F12°F79%1017.3 hPa
Stanton Airfield, MN24 mi34 minW 710.00 miFair19°F14°F78%1017.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KSGS

Wind History from SGS (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmN5N5N4NE5NW6N8N8N8N10
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1 day agoS4S3SE3S3S4S3CalmCalmSE3S3CalmCalmW5CalmSW6SW4SE4SE4SE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoS5S5S6SE3SE3S5S4S6S4SE6S14
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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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