Tuesday, August20, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
St. Paul Park, MN

Version 3.4
NOTICE
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:18AMSunset 8:12PM Tuesday August 20, 2019 9:38 PM CDT (02:38 UTC) Moonrise 9:47PMMoonset 10:09AM Illumination 71% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 20 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near St. Paul Park, MN
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location: 44.83, -93     debug


Area Discussion for - Twin Cities, MN
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Fxus63 kmpx 202329 aaa
afdmpx
area forecast discussion... Updated
national weather service twin cities chanhassen mn
629 pm cdt Tue aug 20 2019

Short term (this evening through Wednesday night)
issued at 323 pm cdt Tue aug 20 2019
no significant redevelopment of thunderstorms is expected ahead of
the cold front through this evening, thanks in large part to storms
that tracked across the area this morning. Although SPC meso
analysis shows MLCAPE values have built back up to the 1500-3500
j kg range ahead of the cold front. Forecast soundings from the rap
and NAM show a strong subsidence inversion in place at h8.

Convergence along the front is weak and there's no discernible upper
wave, so this lack of forcing will allow this cap to hold. You can't
completely rule out a stray shower developing along the front north
of i-94 from central mn into western wi, but it looks unlikely given
the lack of forcing. Already this afternoon on radar on satellite,
we've seen a few attempts at initiating convection along the front
from central mn into the arrowhead, but nothing has ever been able
to sustain itself and expect this trend to continue.

For tonight through Wednesday night, high pressure centered to the
west of hudson bay will be nosing into the upper ms valley. This
will result in some of the best weather you can cook up in mn during
the summer. The one thing to watch both Wednesday and Thursday is we
will see very deep mixing and will be tapping into a very dry
airmass as we mix deeper. So afternoon dewpoints and humidities will
likely be lower than what we currently have. During the overnights,
the airmass will be too dry to support any widespread fog. Winds
will help make sure we don't see fog tonight, but Wednesday night,
we'll have light calm winds, so some valley fog will be possible in
the the valleys along the ms south of the st. Croix and up the
chippewa valley into wi, other than that, it's windows open weather
for the next couple of days.

Long term (Thursday through Tuesday)
issued at 323 pm cdt Tue aug 20 2019
pleasant, early fall-like, weather continues into Friday as
troughing extending south from eastern canada keeps cool
temperatures aloft over the upper midwest, and high pressure over
ontario keeps any systems away from the region. Highs are only
expected to reach into the low to mid 70s Thursday afternoon and
cool, dry NE winds off of lake superior will keep dewpoints in the
40s and low 50s. Southeasterly flow picks up on Friday as the high
slides off to the east, with temperatures warming a few degrees and
more humid air working into the area.

Precipitation still looks likely this weekend, but trough and
surface front driving the chance for showers and thunderstorms has
slowed by a day or so as the ridge over eastern north america slows
its progress. Friday evening now looks dry across the area and
precipitation may even hold off through most of Saturday across
eastern minnesota western wisconsin as the front slowly
approaches from the dakotas. Best chance for precipitation now
looks like it will occur from overnight Saturday into Monday,
although timing differences still exist among the models during
this timeframe. Models have trended stronger with the trough and
linger it longer over the region, as the eastern ridge continues
to stall its progress. Models show some pretty heavy QPF amounts
Sunday into Monday as showers and thunderstorms linger over the
area and show pw values approaching 2 inches. Will have to monitor
the heavy rain flooding potential over the second half of the
weekend. Drier weather looks possible Tuesday after the front
passes, as high pressure briefly moves into the region.

Aviation (for the 00z tafs through 00z Wednesday evening)
issued at 629 pm cdt Tue aug 20 2019
vfr conditions and northwest winds 5-10 kts expected through the
period. Clouds will dissipate this evening, with high clouds
returning to southern mn Wednesday.

Kmsp... No concerns.

Outlook for kmsp
thu...VFR. Wind NE 5 kts.

Fri...VFR. Wind SE 5-10 kts.

Sat...VFR. Chc -tsra MVFR. Wind SE 10g20 kts.

Mpx watches warnings advisories
Wi... None.

Mn... None.

Short term... Mpg
long term... Eta
aviation... Borghoff


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Downtown Holman Field, MN8 mi45 minNNW 610.00 miPartly Cloudy74°F66°F76%1013.8 hPa
South St. Paul Municipal-Richard E. Flemi, MN8 mi42 minNW 310.00 miPartly Cloudy76°F66°F72%1014.2 hPa
Minneapolis, Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport, MN12 mi45 minNNW 510.00 miPartly Cloudy76°F66°F74%1014.1 hPa
Lake Elmo Airport, MN14 mi59 minN 010.00 mi0°F0°F%1014.9 hPa
Minneapolis, Airlake Airport, MN18 mi1.7 hrsNW 310.00 miFair77°F71°F83%1014.2 hPa
Stanton Airfield, MN24 mi62 minN 010.00 miPartly Cloudy73°F70°F92%1013.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KSGS

Wind History from SGS (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr--Calm--Calm--CalmCalm--CalmSE6SE4--S5N18
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1 day agoW4W4CalmCalmCalm----CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS6S5S5SW6S7S5S7S7S5S4Calm
2 days agoSE3SE3CalmS5SE5CalmW8
G19
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W10W8W7W6W4

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Twin Cities, MN (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Minneapolis, MN
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.