Sunday, December8, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
St. Paul Park, MN

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:35AMSunset 4:32PM Sunday December 8, 2019 2:37 PM CST (20:37 UTC) Moonrise 2:50PMMoonset 3:36AM Illumination 90% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 12 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near St. Paul Park, MN
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location: 44.83, -93     debug


Area Discussion for - Twin Cities, MN
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FXUS63 KMPX 081744 AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 1144 AM CST Sun Dec 8 2019

UPDATE. Issued at 1136 AM CST Sun Dec 8 2019

Updated to include 18z aviation discussion below.

SHORT TERM. (Today through Monday) Issued at 313 AM CST Sun Dec 8 2019

Surface analysis shows the trough has entered northeastern Minnesota early this morning. Brisk south/southwest winds will continue to gradually shift to the northwest across the forecast area today as the trough shifts to the Great Lakes. Ensuant low level cold air advection will mean surface temperatures will reach their daily max's at daybreak, with a nearly steady to slowly declining trend through the day.

Tonight we expect snow to blossom across the area as a burst of 700-600mb frontogenesis sweeps eastward across central MN toward northern/central WI. 08.00Z Models stayed fairly consistent with the favored heavy snow axis aligned along and north of a Morris to Bethel to Chetek & Ladysmith Wisconsin line, where 3-6 inch (isolated 7 inch) totals look likely. What has changed ever so slightly, is timing. This could spare the Twin Cities metro and points eastward into west central WI from having much in the way of accumulations at the start of the morning commute. However, snow will be falling throughout it, so impacts are still likely. Envision the Winter Weather Advisory will quite possibly need to be extended a tad farther south to include another row of counties (including the remainder of the TC metro). However, given the storm total amounts are borderline for an advisory south of where it currently resides, the trends for any shifts have been northward, and even another timing shift of a couple hours could spare the bulk of the commute from notable impacts, will hold off for now (given we still are 24 hours out). That all being said, right now we expect locations north and west of the Twin Cities to have 2-5 inches on the ground by 6 AM Monday, with a dusting to half inch in the metro by that time. The remainder of storm accumulations would primarily occur prior to 1 PM, with the exception of eastern parts of the forecast area (ie. Eau Claire and Ladysmith), where accumulating snow is likely through the afternoon. One other item of note is that thermal profiles indicate the potential for a brief period of freezing drizzle at event onset over southern MN into west central WI as weak lift develops ahead of the main forcing. If this indeed occurs, it would most likely be short in duration and of little significance.

The other potentially impactful factor to consider for Monday is the wind. Northwest winds will increase to 25-35 mph with gusts up to 40mph, primarily from west into south central MN. Therefore even areas that don't pick up more than a couple inches of snow could possibly still need an Advisory given this will be the light-fluffy type of snow that doesn't take much to cause issued with blowing snow.

LONG TERM. (Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 313 AM CST Sun Dec 8 2019

The longer term still looks fairly quiet weatherwise. The large scale pattern will be amplified at the start of the period, and trend toward zonal flow as the eastern upper trough lifts out and the western ridge flattens. Longer range guidance shows things re- amplifying after the current 7-day forecast period, so we may see a return of colder temperatures after next weekend depending on where the large scale trough sets up. In terms of forecast specifics, things look dry from Monday night through Wednesday as Arctic high pressure settles over the region. Return flow will bring chances for some light snow back into the area late Wednesday night into thursday, with some lingering precipitation chances into the weekend as we see several weak shortwave troughs move east with the zonal flow. We may see a weak surface low intensity a bit as it moves through the region next weekend, but it's far too early to have any confidence in timing, location, or intensity of things. Given the generally quiet pattern and increasing spread in the ensemble guidance beyond midweek, see no reason to stray from the consensus NBM guidance at this point (other than some minor tweaks to temperatures Tuesday through Thursday).

AVIATION. (For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon) Issued at 1136 AM CST Sun Dec 8 2019

Low stratus has enveloped the area, pushing all TAF sites to IFR (or just above 1kft ceilings) at initialization time. The low stratus will remain in place throughout this TAF set. Snow will develop over western MN late this evening into the early morning hours then continue through midday Monday. Visibilities will likely reach IFR range and potentially as low as LIFR/VLIFR roughly between 10z-16z across the area, particularly eastern MN into western WI. The precip may commence briefly as FZDZ before all snow sets in. Winds will be breezy from the NW late tonight through tomorrow, especially over western MN, potentially creating BLSN issues.

KMSP . IFR ceilings expected to remain in place for much of this TAF period, with ceilings into LIFR range during the period of snowfall (roughly 10z-18z). Visibilities to be in IFR-or-lower range throughout the Monday morning push, with snowfall rates around 1/2 inch per hour but not expecting 1 in/hr rates. Snow should be tapering off around the time winds become breezy so not looking for much BLSN issues, but some drifting on the field may occur.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ Tue . VFR. Wind NW 5-10 kts. Wed . VFR. Wind NW 5 kts. Thu . VFR. Wind SSE 5 kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. WI . Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 PM CST Monday for WIZ014>016.

MN . Winter Weather Advisory from 9 PM this evening to noon CST Monday for MNZ041>045-047>053-055.

Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to noon CST Monday for MNZ061.



UPDATE . JPC SHORT TERM . LS LONG TERM . AVIATION . JPC


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Downtown Holman Field, MN8 mi45 minN 68.00 miOvercast34°F28°F79%1009.3 hPa
South St. Paul Municipal-Richard E. Flemi, MN8 mi43 minN 67.00 miMostly Cloudy34°F29°F84%1008.5 hPa
Minneapolis, Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport, MN12 mi45 minN 65.00 miFog/Mist33°F28°F82%1009.2 hPa
Lake Elmo Airport, MN14 mi43 minN 510.00 miOvercast34°F32°F93%1008.8 hPa
Minneapolis, Airlake Airport, MN18 mi43 minN 55.00 miFog/Mist34°F30°F87%1008.1 hPa
Stanton Airfield, MN24 mi43 minNNW 75.00 miFog/Mist32°F28°F88%1008.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KSGS

Wind History from SGS (wind in knots)
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1 day agoSW4W5SW3S4SW5SE5S4S5CalmSE4S4S5CalmCalmS3CalmCalmCalmS6S5S6S6S8S9
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

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Wind Forecast for Twin Cities, MN (15,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Minneapolis, MN
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.