Friday, December6, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Oconto, WI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:12AMSunset 4:14PM Friday December 6, 2019 10:41 AM CST (16:41 UTC) Moonrise 2:43PMMoonset 2:10AM Illumination 73% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ522 Expires:201912062315;;943498 Fzus53 Kgrb 061551 Nshgrb Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Green Bay Wi 951 Am Cst Fri Dec 6 2019 For Waters Within Five Nautical Miles Of Shore On Lake Michigan Lmz521-522-541>543-062315- Green Bay South Of Line From Cedar River To Rock Island Passage And North Of A Line From Oconto Wi To Little Sturgeon Bay Wi- Green Bay South Of Line From Oconto Wi To Little Sturgeon Bay Wi- Rock Island Passage To Sturgeon Bay Wi- Sturgeon Bay To Two Rivers Wi-two Rivers To Sheboygan Wi- 951 Am Cst Fri Dec 6 2019
.small craft advisory in effect until noon cst today...
This afternoon..NW wind 15 to 25 kts decreasing to 10 to 15 kts early in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 4 ft subsiding to 2 ft or less in the afternoon. Becoming partly cloudy.
Tonight..NW wind 5 to 10 kts backing sw 10 to 20 kts in the late evening and overnight. Waves 2 ft or less. A chance of snow showers after midnight north of sturgeon bay.
Saturday..SW wind 10 to 20 kts increasing to 15 to 25 kts early in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 ft building to 3 to 5 ft in the afternoon. Mostly cloudy. A small craft advisory will likely be needed.
Saturday night..SW wind to 30 kts with a few gale force gusts possible. Waves 6 to 10 ft. Cloudy.
LMZ522


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Oconto, WI
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location: 44.89, -87.87     debug


Area Discussion for - Green Bay, WI
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FXUS63 KGRB 061154 AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Green Bay WI 554 AM CST Fri Dec 6 2019

Updated aviation portion for 12Z TAF issuance

SHORT TERM. Today . Tonight . and Saturday Issued at 335 AM CST Fri Dec 6 2019

Quiet winter on tap for most spots today through Saturday, with the main weather concerns being a weak clipper passing north of the area tonight bringing some very light snow, cloud cover trends, and temps.

For today . any lingering lake effect snow flurries across far north central WI will end this morning. Little to no additional accumulation is expected. Otherwise, a dry day is expected as high pressure builds into the western Great Lakes. Some breaks in the clouds develop during the early morning hours, but began to fill back in as a push of low clouds worked southeast across the area. Additional breaks are expected later this morning and afternoon as moisture continues to decrease below 4000 ft, but it could be a slow process as flow remains northwest through early afternoon and cold air advection continues much of the day, so will be a little more pessimistic with the clouds. Skies are eventually expected to become partly sunny, with the most sun the farther south/east you go. Clouds will linger the longest across north central WI as low level moisture will be slower to exit due to the flow over Lake Superior. Mid and upper clouds will spread into the area in the afternoon from the northwest, adding to the pessimistic cloud forecast. Cold air advection helping mix some winds down to the surface, with some gusts to 20 mph early this morning. Winds weaken in the boundary layer later this morning and afternoon. Temps will be a little colder than yesterday, with readings not climbing much through the day, topping out in the lower and middle 20s across central and northern WI and in the upper 20s to around 30 in eastern WI.

For tonight . another weak clipper system and shortwave will brush far northern WI, bringing to flurries and light snow mainly to locations north of Highway 8. Very limited moisture and forcing, so expecting little to no accumulation. A few flurries are possible north of Highway 29. Otherwise, dry and mostly cloudy skies are expected. The clouds and 4-10 mph winds under the inversion will limit how far temps will fall, with most spots staying in the teens to around 20.

For Saturday . lingering flurries will be ending across far northeast WI early in the day as the clipper/shortwave exit east of the area. Otherwise, dry conditions are expected. Remained pessimistic on clouds as model sounds showing either enough low level moisture for low clouds (especially north) or a thick enough mid-upper level cloud deck. Temps look to jump back above normal with highs ranging from around 30 across north central WI to the middle and possibly upper 30s in the Fox Valley and lake shore.

LONG TERM. Saturday Night Through Thursday Issued at 335 AM CST Fri Dec 6 2019

The medium range models continue to show that the upper air pattern will briefly amplify early next week, when the most active weather is expected to occur over the next 7 days. The latest guidance are in better agreement with the track of a surface low across the Great Lakes in the Sunday night into Monday time period, so will continue to use a general model blend for much of this forecast.

Saturday night through Sunday night . A cold front will be pushing southeast across northern Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin on Saturday night. Most of the night will be quiet, with a mild south wind and mid/high clouds overhead. As the front approaches, low clouds are expect to expand in coverage, with saturation height growing with time over north-central WI late Saturday night into Sunday morning. Saturation depth never becomes deep enough for the introduction of ice crystals, however, which leads to the possibility of drizzle or freezing drizzle. The previous forecast already had a mention on Sunday morning, but will add the mention to late Saturday night. The chance of drizzle will spread southeast into northeast Wisconsin on Sunday afternoon and evening. With warming temperatures into the middle 30s to lower 40s, the threat of freezing drizzle should end early in the day. As low pressure moves into northern IL and shortwave energy moves closer to the region, deeper moisture will lead to increasing chances of snow on Sunday night. Could see up to an inch of snow over north-central WI by early Monday morning.

Rest of the forecast . Widespread snow remains on track on Monday when low pressure travels into the central Great Lakes and stronger upper support via shortwave energy/mid-level fgen moves across the region. Gulf moisture will get shunted to the east, but duration/strength of forcing should result in several inches of snowfall. Most of the synoptic snowfall should be ending on Monday evening, but northwest winds behind the system will likely provide lake effect snow showers across the Vilas county snowbelt through the night. Models are now indicating that the amplifying long wave trough could bring additional light snowfall to the area on Tuesday as bitterly cold arctic air moves into the region. Perhaps some areas could see an additional inch of snow, but the bigger story will likely be the cold temps and bitter cold wind chills by this time. Highs on Tue thru Thu will likely only be in the single digits to teens above zero. May see wind chills cold enough to warrant an advisory at times during this period. The arctic high will likely remain in place until the end of the work week.

AVIATION. for 12Z TAF Issuance Issued at 554 AM CST Fri Dec 6 2019

High-end MVFR and low-end VFR ceilings will continue, but breaks in the clouds will expand as drier air filters into the area. The low clouds will last the longest across north central WI due to flow off of Lake Superior. KRHI could see a little light snow this evening as another weak clipper system passes north of the area. Little to no accumulation is expected. Otherwise, dry weather is expected through the TAF period. Winds will be a little gusty through early afternoon, then will diminish toward sunset.

GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. NONE.

SHORT TERM . Bersch LONG TERM . MPC AVIATION . Bersch


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MN4 - 9087088 - Menominee, MI 21 mi54 min NNW 12 G 16 1023.6 hPa
CBRW3 - Chambers Island, WI 34 mi62 min W 12 G 18 29°F
KWNW3 - 9087069- Kewaunee, WI 35 mi54 min NNW 5.1 G 12 30°F 1023.5 hPa

Wind History for Menominee, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Menominee - Marinette Twin County Airport, MI20 mi46 minNNW 810.00 miOvercast29°F19°F69%1025 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMNM

Wind History from MNM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmSE4NE3CalmNE3E5E7E6E5N4N5N6N8N9NW5NW8NW4CalmNW4N75N7N9
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1 day agoW6W7W75W5W4W4W4W3W3W3NW3NW4NW4NW3CalmN6N8NE4N3N3NE4NE5NE6
2 days agoSW6SW7W8W46W4W33W6W7W5W6W5W54CalmSW4W4W4W43W45W3

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Green Bay, WI (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Green Bay, WI
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.