Saturday, August15, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Oconto, WI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:54AMSunset 7:58PM Saturday August 15, 2020 3:46 PM CDT (20:46 UTC) Moonrise 1:48AMMoonset 5:53PM Illumination 10% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 27 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ522 Expires:202008160415;;505688 Fzus53 Kgrb 152012 Nshgrb Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Green Bay Wi 312 Pm Cdt Sat Aug 15 2020 For Waters Within Five Nautical Miles Of Shore On Lake Michigan Lmz521-522-541>543-160415- Green Bay South Of Line From Cedar River To Rock Island Passage And North Of A Line From Oconto Wi To Little Sturgeon Bay Wi- Green Bay South Of Line From Oconto Wi To Little Sturgeon Bay Wi- Rock Island Passage To Sturgeon Bay Wi- Sturgeon Bay To Two Rivers Wi-two Rivers To Sheboygan Wi- 312 Pm Cdt Sat Aug 15 2020
Tonight..Variable wind 5 to 10 kts becoming nw after midnight. Waves 2 ft or less. Partly cloudy.
Sunday..SW wind 5 to 10 kts. Waves 2 ft or less. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Sunday night..NW wind 5 to 10 kts. Waves 2 ft or less. Mostly clear.
Monday..N wind 5 to 10 kts. Waves 2 ft or less. Mostly Sunny.
LMZ522


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Oconto, WI
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location: 44.89, -87.87     debug


Area Discussion for - Green Bay, WI
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FXUS63 KGRB 151928 AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Green Bay WI 228 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2020

Forecast discussion for routine afternoon forecast issuance

SHORT TERM. Tonight and Sunday Issued at 228 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2020

The latest RAP analysis and satellite/radar imagery show a cold front in the process of exiting east-central Wisconsin early this afternoon. Shower activity expanded over east-central WI by late in the morning, but most of the precip has exited over Lake Michigan. The back edge of the cloud cover is heading southeast across north-central Wisconsin. Should see this clearing continue to spread southeast over the rest of the afternoon into early this evening. Looking upstream, the next upper level disturbance is spreading mid and high level clouds across North Dakota and Minnesota. Spotty showers with this disturbance along with the potential for showers/storms along a weak cold front on Sunday are the main forecast concerns.

Tonight . After a period of clearing, mid and high cloud cover will return this evening as a surface ridge axis slides across the region. The short range models show scattered showers and storms will be moving southeast within a trough axis and the left front quadrant of a 115 kt jet streak over northeast Minnesota and into northwest Wisconsin. This shower activity is expected to approach north-central WI after midnight, but guidance generally shows precip diminishing in the process. Will keep a slight chance in the forecast, highest over Wood county. Low temps will be cooler, and mainly in the 50s.

Sunday . Another upper trough will move into the region in the afternoon, along with a weak surface trough. With heat of the day, some surface based instability up to 1000 j/kg is forecast to developed, which could lead to an isolated showers and storms developing in the afternoon, primarily over northeast Wisconsin. Temps will be slightly above normal and range from the middle 70s to low 80s.

LONG TERM. Sunday Night Through Saturday Issued at 228 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2020

Fairly quiet weather in the extended with seasonal temperatures expected. A couple chances for showers and thunderstorms are possible late Tuesday into Wednesday and again next weekend.

Sunday night into Tuesday: A weak surface trough is expected to drift slowly east of the area Sunday evening, which may allow for a few sprinkles or light rain showers in the early evening hours; otherwise, much of the night will be dry as high pressure approaches from the west. The surface ridge is expected linger/becoming reinforced across the area through the remainder of this time period, allowing for lighter winds and mainly dry conditions. Aloft, northwest flow will linger across the area, allowing for somewhat cooler conditions. High temperature will likely be in the 70s for most locations through this time period. Overnight lows will drop into the 40s to around 50.

Tuesday night through Wednesday: A nearly west to east oriented cold front is expected to sag southward into much of northeast Wisconsin late Tuesday afternoon. This front is currently progged to drop slowly south through all of northeast Wisconsin before departing to the south by late Wednesday afternoon. The front doesn't have a lot of moisture to work with as the Gulf is basically cut off through much of the first part of the week. The main area of moisture associated with this feature will drift into the area from the northwest, across central Canada. With that in mind, models are showing enough forcing and instability along the front to touch of some showers and thunderstorms through this time period. For the reasons previously mentioned, model only paint out around a tenth to a quarter of an inch of QPF. Lows are expected to be in the 50s with highs warming into the 70s to around 80. Of course, temperatures could be held back a bit if cloud cover is extensive (it looks like this could be the case) during the day.

Wednesday night through Thursday: Dry high pressure is expected to quickly build back across the area Wednesday night and linger into Thursday afternoon as it slowly drifts to the east. This is expected to allow increased/southerly return flow by late Thursday afternoon. Again, for the most part, this time period should be fairly quiet with moderating temperatures as the upper-level flow flattens across the area. Lows will be mainly in the 50s with highs warming into the upper 70s to low 80s.

Rest of the extended: A surface low and upper-level trough is expected to trek across Ontario Friday into Saturday while dragging a cold front across much of Wisconsin. This will lead to increased chances for showers and thunderstorms across the area along with more widespread cloud cover. Considering this is toward the end of the forecast period and there are timing/placement issues, will stick with a blend of the models, bringing the aforementioned chances of showers/storms to the area. Temperature are expected to be near or slightly above normal.

AVIATION. for 18Z TAF Issuance Issued at 1204 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2020

Showers and isolated thunderstorms will be exiting northeast Wisconsin early this afternoon as a cold front moves over Lake Michigan. Skies will gradually clear from northwest to southeast for a time this afternoon before an upper level disturbance brings some clouds back tonight. Short term models suggest a few showers could approach central and north-central WI after midnight, but confidence is too low to include in the taf forecasts. A weak cold front or surface trough is then forecast to move across northern Wisconsin on Sunday. Convective cloudiness should build with the heat of the day by the end of the taf period, but isolated/scattered showers or storms should hold off until afternoon.

GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. NONE.

SHORT TERM . MPC LONG TERM . Cooley AVIATION . MPC


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
45014 8 mi46 min S 3.9 G 5.8 73°F 1012.5 hPa (-0.9)
MN4 - 9087088 - Menominee, MI 21 mi52 min SSE 11 G 13 72°F 72°F1013.3 hPa65°F
GBWW3 25 mi136 min NW 4.1 G 5.1 73°F 1013.3 hPa
CBRW3 - Chambers Island, WI 34 mi66 min SSE 5.1 G 11 74°F
KWNW3 - 9087069- Kewaunee, WI 35 mi52 min WNW 1.9 G 5.1 73°F 1013.8 hPa

Wind History for Menominee, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Menominee - Marinette Twin County Airport, MI20 mi50 minN 010.00 mi76°F64°F69%1013.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMNM

Wind History from MNM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE7SE7SE6S5S6SE5S5SW3SW3S3S4S5S8SW8W3CalmCalmSW3W5NW4Calm4SW6Calm
1 day agoSE5E6E6NE7E4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW4CalmN4CalmCalmCalmE5CalmSE6SE7E7E6
2 days agoSW8SW6SW5S4S4S4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN4N3CalmE4E7E6SE5E7

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Green Bay, WI (16,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Green Bay, WI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.