Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Salem, OR

SHORT TERM
Now through Monday night...North to northwest onshore flow expected to continue in the low levels with southwest flow in the upper levels expected through Monday. Heights aloft rebound today in the wake of a weak upper level disturbance, exiting to the northeast. The HRRR ensemble mean continues to depict cloud cover backbuilding off the Cascades and into the Willamette Valley and Portland metro. Broken cloud cover is also expected along the coast but has been more scattered. Despite morning clouds, afternoon highs are expected to reach a few degrees higher than Saturday with a trend toward clearing skies in the afternoon. Interior lowlands can expect upper 70s to low 80s while the coastal areas see the 60s.

Not expecting nearly as much cloud cover to develop tonight into Monday morning due to the weakening pressure gradient and therefore, weaker onshore flow. Could still see some low level clouds along the coast lingering into Monday morning. Upper level heights will continue to increase on Monday as the 500 mb pattern amplifies over over the CONUS. A large ridge of high pressure centered over the northern Plains will persist while a short wave drops southward along the western periphery of the ridge, off the western Canada coast and toward he PacNW. Lack of morning cloud cover and the amplifying pattern will support increasing afternoon temperatures on Monday, jumping into the mid to upper 80s across the interior lowlands and mid 60s to low 70s along the coast.

It is also worth noting the potential for hazy skies in the Cascades of eastern Lane County during the afternoon/evening hours on sunday and Monday due to smoke coming from a wildfire burning in northwest Jackson County between Wimer, OR and Shady Grove, OR. The RRFS smoke model backs up this expectation, with vertically integrated smoke values increasing to near 100 mg/m^2 near the Cascade crest.
Fortunately, smoke aloft is not expected to mix down to the surface in eastern Lane County. -19/23

LONG TERM
Tuesday through Friday night...The warm conditions are expected to persist into Tuesday as the upper level ridge remains in control over the area. Highs in the upper 80s to low 90s are expected across the interior lowlands and mid 60s to low 70s along the coast. A weak disturbance is expected to pass over central Oregon and could support showers or thunderstorms along the Cascade crest during the afternoon. Probabilities at this time are around 15-30% along the Lane and Linn county Cascades.

The pattern continues to show a decent amount of uncertainty heading into Wednesday and the remainder of the week with temperature and precipitation discrepancies at the forefront. Ensembles continue to struggle with a closed low that is expected to develop somewhere off the southern coast of British Columbia and into the PacNW. Development farther north around vancouver Island will support another day of warm temperatures in the 80s while a more southern development off the Oregon coast would lead to temperatures likely in the upper 70s to low 80s, At this point, ensembles favor the farther north development with 70-80% of ECMWF members and ~60% of GFS members. NBM spread between the 10th-90th percentiles has decreed from around 20 degrees to 15 degrees, ranging from the upper 70s to low 90s now. There also remains a low (10-20%) chance for showers across the area Wednesday afternoon and evening. Confidence increases for dry weather on Friday, however the temperature forecast remains uncertain with the NBM 10th-90th percentile for highs ranging from the lower 80s to upper 90s for inland valleys. -19

AVIATION
A weak trough continues to move northeast away from the airspace, continuing southwesterly flow aloft. While some stratus may back build along the Cascades tonight, expect VFR conditions at all inland terminals through the TAF period (less than 20% chance of MVFR CIGs between 08-15Z Sun). As for the coast, there is low confidence for ceiling conditions between 07Z and 18Z Sun, with a 40-50% chance of MVFR CIGs at all coastal terminals. While most coastal terminals are currently VFR, low scattered clouds have started to develop so MVFR CIGs may develop by 07-08Z Sun. By 15-18Z Sun, coastal terminals will return to VFR and remain so through the remainder of the TAF period. Expect winds to remain generally light and variable overnight, then increase to around 5-10 kt and shift northwesterly around 18Z Sun.
Coastal terminals will see a bit stronger winds, generally 12-17 kt with gusts up to 25 kt between 18Z Sun and 04Z Mon.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR with northwesterly winds, light overnight then increasing to around 10 kt by 18-21Z Sun. 10-20% chance of MVFR CIGs between 08-14Z Sun. ~12

MARINE
A weak area of low pressure sits offshore and will slowly move inland overnight. The low pressure center is enhancing the already present northwesterly swell, and winds are increasing around buoy 46029 where gusts up to 17 kt have been reported. These conditions are not necessarily going to amplify significantly tonight but we will see a response on Sunday.

The low will shift inland causing seas to slowly build to 7-9 ft at 8-9 seconds, and winds will begin to amplify. Will see Small Craft Advisory level winds in the central and southern waters as early as late Sunday morning, and then those speeds will move north incorporating the northern waters. Overall, they are going to be hovering right along the threshold of 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt so winds may not be as widespread. However, given the incoming pattern and the high pressure developing combined with the diurnal component to our wind, there is enough confidence for at least this advisory.

Winds will ease to below thresholds on Monday but seas will remain around 7-8 ft at 8 seconds thus leaving choppier conditions.
Because of this, could see the advisory extended, but at this time confidence is too low to project too far into the future given its marginal nature. -27

PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...None.

WA...None.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 2 AM PDT Monday for PZZ251-271.

Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 11 AM PDT Monday for PZZ252-253-272-273.