Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Spring Park, MN

DISCUSSION
Issued at 217 PM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025

Light rain has spread across the entire forecast area over the last several hours. The low level easterly flow will actively dry the low levels and has limited rain so far this morning. It's effectively lost it's fight against the rain at this point, but we can observe it's impact given the 8-10kft ceiling heights. Impressive nonetheless! Light rain is expected to continue through the evening hours before it tapers off early Wednesday morning. Latest radar imagery shows a broad shield of showers across the southern half of Minnesota & western Wisconsin. I have nudged PoPs higher, into the 80-100 range, to better highlight the broad area of light, steady rainfall. Latest guidance suggests most locations end up between 0.25 to 0.50" by Wednesday morning. Temperatures have warmed slowly given the cloud cover & active evaporative cooling. Highs will top out in the upper 40s and lower 50s. Tonight's low temperatures won't change much for the same exact reasoning previously mentioned low temperatures ran from the lower 40s to the upper 40s.

On Wednesday, we'll see much of the area dry out in between systems.
High temperatures should warm into the mid to upper 50s with mostly cloudy skies. Rain chances return Wednesday night into Thursday as a thermal ridge builds into the region. There will be enough forcing tied to the low to mid level warm front to support scattered showers development. Thursday & Friday will see temperature warm well above normal with high temperatures into the mid 60s to mid 70s. Most locations should remain dry through Friday afternoon as a surface low pivots over the Dakotas. Aloft, the upper level trough over the western US will cross the Rockies and into the Plains Wednesday. A surface low will form lee of the Rockies and intensify as it lifts northward into the Dakotas on Thursday. This low track into Canada and drag a decaying surface boundary through the Upper Midwest on Friday. Friday's rain chances are tied to the frontal passage. The forcing will be limited, but there should be enough to squeeze out scatted showers along the boundary. Amounts will not be too impressive or "just enough to keep the dust down."

Temperatures cool down behind the frontal passage as we head into the weekend. There are a few slight chance PoPs both days, primarily over W WI, given some lingering forcing aloft. Highs will be mid 50s to low 60s with lows in the 40s. Another thermal ridge will build in for early next week ahead of another wave off to our northwest.
There is some disagreement within models so I've opted to keep NBM PoPs as is. However, guidance hints at another amplified trough ejecting out of the Rockies mid-next week time frame. Model spread is rather significant given it's a week out so it's just something to keep an eye on for now. Our active, amplified pattern should support another organized system somewhere in the north central CONUS.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
Issued at 1153 PM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025

While light rain should end at most of our terminals within the next couple of hours, a band of rain will likely continue over southern MN until near sunrise. MVFR visibilities are possible with the rain and any lingering mist into Wednesday morning. IFR cigs will continue to spread east over the next few hours, such that all terminals will be at least IFR through Wednesday morning. AXN is the most likely to drop to LIFR as cigs bottom out near 400 feet. Cigs should slightly lift after Wednesday morning but should largely stay IFR/MVFR. Only EAU looks to reach VFR by the end of the TAF period. There is also a chance of showers and perhaps a thunderstorm for western MN Wednesday evening along a nose of WAA. Have added PROB30s at AXN and RWF.
East-southeasterly winds will increase to 6-11 knots during Wednesday.

KMSP...Light rain/mist will continue for the next hour or so with visibilities dropping to 5sm. Expect IFR cigs to arrive near 08Z but an improvement to MVFR is expected after 18Z. Added a PROB30 from 06-12Z Thursday for a chance of -TSRA.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ THU...VFR. Chc-RA/MVFR. Wind SE 10-15G25kts.
FRI...VFR. Chc -RA/MVFR. Wind SW 10-15G25kts.
SAT...VFR. Wind W 10-15G20kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...None.
WI...None.