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PZZ252 Coastal Waters From Cape Falcon To Cape Foulweather Or Out 10 Nm- 139 Pm Pdt Tue Oct 3 2023
.small craft advisory in effect from Wednesday afternoon through late Wednesday night...
Tonight..N wind 5 to 10 kt with gusts to 15 kt. Wind waves N 2 ft at 4 seconds. SWell W 8 ft at 12 seconds. Chance of showers after midnight.
Wed..N wind 5 to 10 kt, rising to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon, with gusts to 25 kt. Wind waves N 2 ft at 4 seconds. SWell W 5 ft at 11 seconds. Patchy morning fog. Chance of showers.
Wed night..N wind 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Wind waves N 3 ft at 6 seconds. SWell W 5 ft at 10 seconds.
Thu..N wind 10 to 15 kt, rising to 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves N 3 ft at 5 seconds. SWell nw 5 ft at 10 seconds.
Thu night..N wind 20 to 25 kt, becoming ne 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt after midnight. Wind waves ne 3 ft at 5 seconds. SWell nw 5 ft at 12 seconds.
Fri..E wind 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves E 2 ft at 4 seconds. SWell nw 4 ft at 11 seconds.
Fri night..E wind 5 to 10 kt. Gusts to 15 kt early in the evening. Wind waves E 1 ft at 4 seconds. SWell W 3 ft at 11 seconds.
Sat..S wind 5 to 10 kt, rising to 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves S 2 ft at 4 seconds. SWell W 2 ft at 10 seconds.
Sun..S wind 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt, rising to 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 30 kt. Wind waves S 3 ft at 5 seconds. SWell W 3 ft at 9 seconds, building to W 6 ft at 12 seconds.

PZZ200 139 Pm Pdt Tue Oct 3 2023
Synopsis for the southern washington and northern oregon coast.. High pressure will strengthen offshore today and promote moderate northerly breezes through the rest of the week. More active weather returns early next week.

FXUS66 KPQR 040443 AAA AFDPQR

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated National Weather Service Portland OR 943 PM PDT Tue Oct 3 2023

Updated aviation...

SYNOPSIS
High pressure builds over the Pacific NW through Saturday bringing warmer and drier conditions. Some valley fog possible tonight and again Wed night, giving way to clearing skies and warming temperatures, with highs likely reaching the lower 80s late week. Mother Nature turns the switch back to fall weather by early next week, with clouds and rain returning.

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...Mostly cloudy skies this afternoon should give way to some clearing this evening. High pressure offshore will continue to build over the Pacific NW promoting stable conditions. Clearing skies tonight, combined with decreasing winds, wet ground, and relatively moist near-surface layer, should see areas of fog form in typical valley locations. A weak upper level feature in the northwest flow pushes into western Washington later tonight into Wednesday, which will bring in more stratus and act to deepen the marine layer across northern portions of the forecast area. Drizzle chances return to the north coast through Wednesday morning. Temperatures will be slow to warm again with highs near normal, with 60s along the coast and upper 60s to lower 70s inland.

Clearing skies again expected Wednesday night, with another round of fog in the valleys. The upper ridge of high pressure builds stronger over the area on Thursday as offshore flow begins to develop. Will likely see drier conditions with breezy north to northeast winds by Thursday afternoon. Temperatures are expected to warm into the upper 60s to mid 70s along the coast, and upper 70s to lower 80s inland, bringing a rather mild October day for Thursday. /DH


LONG TERM
Thursday through Monday...Models and their ensembles are in good agreement shortwave ridging will bring a multi-day stretch of above average temperatures to much of southwest Washington and northwest Oregon Thursday through Saturday. Offshore winds will ramp up Thursday into Friday with east winds peaking Friday. NBM guidance suggests there is a 75% chance that wind gusts at KPDX and KTTD will remain top out around 30 mph or less and between 40 to 50 mph or less at our windiest locations in the Gorge.
Aside from fuels being quite moist, relative humidity values appear most likely to end up well above critical thresholds so few fire weather concerns exist. There is a 75% chance that temperatures will climb to at least 80F Friday and Saturday for most locations

Ensemble guidance is in good agreement ridging will give way to an incoming shortwave trough and an attendant period of wet and cool weather. There remains quite a bit of uncertainty in rainfall amounts and when the heaviest rainfall will occur early next week so there is a large amount of uncertainty on potential impacts.

AVIATION
Clouds continue to dissipate as of 04z Wed, yielding mostly VFR conditions across the area as high pressure builds offshore. A weak upper level disturbance embedded in northwest flow will bring a return of MVFR cigs overnight, expected to spread into the Willamette Valley terminals 09-12z Wed. MVFR cigs have already developed at KAST, with some patchy drizzle possible in northern coastal areas through early Wed morning. Abundant low level moisture could also yield some patchy fog development and locally lower flight categories as a result, particularly in the south Willamette Valley around KEUG. Expect clouds to scatter out 18-21z Wed, with VFR returning under mostly clear skies thereafter.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR this evening with scattered cloud deck around FL045. Expect MVFR cigs to return 10-12z and persist through around 18z Wed, with VFR under mostly clear skies for the remainder of the period. /CB

MARINE
High pressure starting to build offshore this afternoon will promote a summer-like northerly wind regime for much of the rest of the week. Inland heating trend will yield a strengthening thermal trough near the OR-CA border which will produce stronger winds over the southern OR coastal waters in the vicinity of Cape Blanco Wednesday. Expect these stronger winds to gradually expand northward up the coast to Cape Falcon Wednesday night into Thursday morning. With winds gusting up to 25 kt, a Small Craft Advisory has been issued for the central and southern outer and inner waters. Thursday afternoon, these strong winds may expand north into our outer northern waters. Meanwhile, seas in the short term will be dominated by a lingering westerly swell around 8-9 feet at 13-15 seconds as shorter period wind-driven seas subside this morning, keeping seas in the 6 to 7 ft range into tonight before subsiding to 4 to 6 feet by Wednesday. -JH



PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...None.
WA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM PDT this evening for Columbia River Bar.

Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM Wednesday to 5 AM PDT Thursday for Coastal waters from Cape Foulweather OR to Florence OR out 10 NM.Coastal waters from Cape Foulweather OR to Florence OR from 10 to 60 NM.

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Nestucca Bay entrance
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Tue -- 04:18 AM PDT     6.47 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:16 AM PDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:50 AM PDT     2.47 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 12:41 PM PDT     Moonset
Tue -- 03:34 PM PDT     8.04 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:52 PM PDT     Sunset
Tue -- 09:10 PM PDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 10:56 PM PDT     -0.26 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Nestucca Bay entrance, Oregon, Tide feet

Vancouver
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Tue -- 06:11 AM PDT     -0.28 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:11 AM PDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 10:53 AM PDT     1.37 feet High Tide
Tue -- 12:38 PM PDT     Moonset
Tue -- 06:16 PM PDT     0.45 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:47 PM PDT     Sunset
Tue -- 09:03 PM PDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 10:42 PM PDT     1.88 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Vancouver, Columbia River, Washington (dubious accuracy), Tide feet

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