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FXUS63 KMPX 291130 AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 530 AM CST Wed Nov 29 2023

KEY MESSAGES
- Temperatures will be on the warmer side of our seasonal values for the remainder of the week.

- Chances for precipitation remain uncertain for this weekend and into early next week.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 229 AM CST Wed Nov 29 2023

TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...It was a seasonably warm morning out there despite the clear skies, with observations showing light westerly winds, and temperatures in the 20s. The fact that late November lows are in the 20s despite clear skies speaks to the warm air advection in place, and for that reason we continued the trend of the previous forecast to bump today's highs toward the higher end of guidance. Most locations should reach the 40s, and some places to the south/west will make a run at 50.

Looking ahead, the northwest flow will transition to more zonal flow by the end of the week. The southern stream will be the more dominant feature, and bring rain across the southern half of the CONUS up through New England. Closer to home, a weak cold front will pass through the region on Thursday, but this will be dry. The most notable change will be temperatures closer to normal for Thursday and Friday, with highs in the mid 30s and lows in the 20s. On Saturday another shortwave trough embedded in the southern stream will bring rain to parts of Iowa and Illinois, but our area should remain dry through the day on Saturday.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...Uncertainty remains for the second half of the forecast. There will be a brief transition to a more "active" pattern. However, we use that term loosely in the sense that although there will be a trough over the Dakotas, with small PV anomalies spinning off of it and moving over the Upper Midwest, the end result will be small chance for rain/snow, with little potential for an impactful system. The cause for uncertainty is differences in timing and placement with these small PV anomalies. They are subtle, fast-moving systems, so their footprint of precipition is also rather fleeting. For that reason, there are several small chances for rain/snow from Saturday night through early next week, but smaller windows of higher chances will likely emerge in the coming days as model agreement and forecaster confidence increases. Otherwise temperatures remain near to above the seasonal average at least into next week.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
Issued at 527 AM CST Wed Nov 29 2023

VFR conditions throughout. Westerly winds will become southwest today, and then eventually northwest as a cold front moves through later tonight into Thursday.

KMSP...No weather-related hazards expected. Westerly winds will become southwest today, and then eventually northwest as a cold front moves through early Thursday morning.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ Thu...VFR. Wind NW 10-15 kts.
Fri...VFR. Wind E 5 kts.
Sat...VFR. Wind SE 10 kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...None.
WI...None.

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