DISCUSSION
Issued at 252 AM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024

Thursday evening's showers and storms have moved well off to our east and we have been left with clear skies and falling dew points in their wake. Today's highs are still expected to climb into the upper 70s and low 80s, but it will feel less summer-like than the rest of this week as drier air continues to filter into the region.
Our next chance of precip continues to look less and less certain for this weekend. There has been a considerable downward trend in PoPs and QPF over the past 24-36 hours with the bulk of the rain shifting to our southeast. Aloft, a shortwave will skirt along the International Border Saturday as a cutoff low ejects out of the Southwest and into the Central Plains by Sunday. On Saturday, warm and slightly more humid conditions will make a temporary return with southerly flow ahead of the cold front associated with the northern wave. This may spark some light scattered showers across the forecast area Saturday, but QPF amounts look to be only a few hundredths of an inch at best. Far southeastern Minnesota and western Wisconsin will have the best chance at seeing some of this activity as this area will have the most time to destabilize and get some of the more impressive dew points (60-65F)in place before the front approaches. SPC has highlighted this area for a Marginal Risk of severe storms Saturday afternoon, but forecast soundings suggest capping may remain in place through the evening.

Sunday will be considerably cooler behind this system with temperatures near late September normals in the upper 60s. The aforementioned system across the Central Plains may brush far southern Minnesota with the northern extent of the precip shield, but it's looking like another miss. While there was no change in this week's drought monitor for the MPX CWA, it's worth noting that all three of our climate sites are sitting well under month to date precip normals. MSP has only seen 0.03" for the month and without another significant rainmaker on the horizon, this September is on track to be the driest on record. However, thanks to a surplus of rain earlier in the year, we are still running above the year-to-date average. We'll start the first official day of Autumn on a chilly note with overnight lows Monday morning falling into the low 40s north and west to upper 40s south.
Highs will again be in the upper 60s to low 70s, with low 70s and dry conditions expected through the remainder of the period.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
Issued at 526 AM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024

With drier air continuing to march eastward, any fog at our Wisconsin sites has been short-lived this morning. Satellite imagery shows it eroding quickly, but opted to leave it in just a tad longer at KEAU as low end IFR has been prominent over the last couple of hours. Otherwise, moved up the timing of the wind shift to the west an hour or two for our western and central Minnesota terminals and reduced speeds by a couple knots. By this evening, winds are still expected to take on a more southeasterly direction, but will be around 5kts or less. A strong LLJ may pose some LLWS concerns for KRWF and KMKT late in the period.

KMSP...No additional concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ SAT...VFR. Chc SHRA/TSRA. Wind SE 5-10kts becoming W.
SUN...VFR. Slight chc SHRA/MVFR. Wind NW 5-10 kts.
MON...VFR. Slight chc SHRA/MVFR. Wind NE 5-10 kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...None.
WI...None.