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LMZ344 Sleeping Bear Point To Grand Traverse Light Mi- Point Betsie To Sleeping Bear Point Mi- 242 Pm Est Thu Dec 7 2023
Through early evening..Light winds. Mostly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tonight..Southeast wind 10 to 15 knots. Areas of fog. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday..South wind 10 to 20 knots. Partly Sunny. Waves 3 to 5 feet.
Friday night..South wind 10 to 15 knots. Chance of rain. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Saturday..Southwest wind 15 to 20 knots. Chance of rain. Waves 3 to 5 feet.
see the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.

LMZ300
No data

FXUS63 KAPX 071937 AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 237 PM EST Thu Dec 7 2023

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/

Unseasonably Mild Tonight

High Impact Weather...Fog possible.

Primary Forecast Concerns...Cloud cover, fog potential and low temperatures.

Northern Michigan is in kind of left in a void in between high pressure across the deep Southeast and low pressure across the northwest Plains. Low clouds across much of the region earlier this morning continue to slowly erode from the southwest. Lessening cloud trend is expected to continue into this evening allowing temperatures to drop off toward freezing. Low levels are fairly moist with surface dewpoints in the low and mid 30s so with continued light winds this evening would not be surprised if some fog forms. The surface pressure gradient begins to tighten up tonight with surface winds starting to pick up some. So any form that does form may try to break up overnight. In addition, guidance does reform lower clouds late tonight as well. So overall expect areas of fog and increasing cloudiness with mild temperatures and increasing southeasterly winds.

SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/

High Impact Weather Potential: Some lake effect/enhanced snow possible with a return of colder temperatures for the second half of the weekend.

Pattern Forecast: By Friday morning, amplified mid-upper level ridge axis is expected to be situated over the Great Lakes region. Several embedded disturbances upstream across the Plains within broader longwave troughing. Low pressure already in place near the ND/MN border at the start of the period will trek off to the northeast towards Hudson Bay by Saturday afternoon. Meanwhile, secondary area of low pressure is expected to develop over the southern Plains, tracking northeast towards the upper MS Valley/western Great Lakes.
While rain chances will dominate Saturday, as this system treks off to our north, cooler air with some snow chances are expected to return for the second half of the weekend.

Primary Forecast Concerns: Rain Saturday. Cooler Saturday night - Sunday with some snow possible across parts of northern MI.

Initial story to wrap up the week will be well above normal temperatures as a warm front attendant to low pressure over ND/MN continues to propel north across the forecast area. Skies largely remain mostly cloudy with perhaps a sprinkle in the eastern U.P.
Otherwise, a dry day looks to be on tap with high temperatures spanning from the mid-40s to low 50s across northern lower (just a touch cooler north).

Attention quickly turns to an approaching wave Friday night into Saturday. As low pressure nears southern Lake Michigan, lingering low-level dry air will slowly be eroded with shower chances arriving as early as late Friday night in southern portions of the CWA. Those chances continue to expand area-wide on Saturday and while latest trends support the highest swath of QPF remaining to our west over eastern WI/central U.P. and northern Lake Michigan, a grungy/cloudy/ showery day will largely be the rule. Still mild with highs spanning the mid-40s to low 50s area-wide.

Showers largely diminish through Saturday afternoon, with a passing cold front bringing the arrival of much cooler air. Temperatures expected to fall into the 30s Saturday evening and below freezing overnight. While some uncertainty exists on just how fast surface temperatures fall, it'll be at least worth monitoring the potential for a flash freeze where wet roads linger from prior rainfall/snow melt. Some lake effect/enhanced snow possible Sunday, although with little confidence, as cooler air and perhaps some lingering synoptic support builds across the northern Great Lakes.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/

High Impact Weather Potential: Minimal.

Mid-level trough axis expected to be crossing the area Sunday night giving way to shortwave ridging to kick off early next week. Another northern stream wave punches toward the northern Lakes by Monday night - Tuesday before some signals that longwave ridging at least briefly returns toward the end of the forecast period.

Overall, not a lot in the way of potential high impact weather through the long term, but certainly some nuisance precip chances remain. Lake-aided snow showers possible Sunday night/early Monday, although with continued low confidence on coverage. Low pressure passing to our north late Monday night - Tuesday is expected to send a cold front across the region through that time frame, perhaps providing enough support to kick off some snow showers. Confidence diminishes late week, although latest ensemble trends favor another period with above to well-above normal temperatures.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
Issued at 1240 PM EST Thu Dec 7 2023

Stratus deck continues to erode from southwest to northeast this afternoon and this trend clear out clouds across the remaining taf sites by very late in the day. Low clouds are then expected to reform later tonight. Light winds will turn southeast late tonight while increasing. There could be some areas of fog that form over the first half of tonight.

MARINE

Light southwest winds shift into the southeast later tonight while increasing. Small craft advisory gusts are likely Friday.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

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