Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for St. Louis Park, MN
December 7, 2023 4:43 PM CST (22:43 UTC)
Sunrise 7:35AM Sunset 4:33PM Moonrise 1:48AM Moonset 1:41PM
Area Discussion for - Twin Cities, MN
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FXUS63 KMPX 071704 AFDMPX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 1104 AM CST Thu Dec 7 2023
KEY MESSAGES
- December warmth continues today (and Friday), with record highs possible.
- Cooler air returns this weekend.
- On Saturday confidence is increasing that snow showers and falling temperatures could lead to slick spots on roads.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 303 AM CST Thu Dec 7 2023
Record Highs for Today 12/7 MSP: 54/1939 STC: 53/1939 EAU: 49/1916
Today...The warm weather that has been advertised for days remains on tap for this afternoon and to some extent on Friday.
Early morning satellite imagery showed a few high clouds overhead, with light winds. Despite the light winds, surface temperatures were still in the upper 20s to lower 30s. Meanwhile temperatures aloft were more impressive, with the 00Z balloon measuring over 12C at 875 mb! Although we will not mix up to 875 mb, the warm start to the day, together with filtered sunshine and warm air aloft will lead to record or near record temperatures this afternoon. We continued the trend of going above the blended guidance for temperatures both today and tomorrow. The one thing not going for a runaway temperature day is the easterly component in the surface winds, but the overall set up is very favorable for record warmth.
Friday through Wednesday...On Friday the winds will become more westerly with gusts of 20 to 30 mph, but the mild air remains in place ahead of a stronger cold front that will move through the region Friday night and Saturday.
There are two drivers for precipitation chances late Friday night and Saturday. The first is a shortwave trough in southwest flow that This cold front is being driven by an upper level shortwave trough that will lead to a small area of cyclogenesis and precipitation across eastern Iowa and Wisconsin. This could clip the western counties and places like Ladysmith, Chippewa Falls, and Eau Claire. Temperatures will be such that a rain/snow mix is most likely, but any accumulation should be less than an inch.
The second driver is a northern stream shortwave trough that will drive the aforementioned cold front through the region.
The cold air advection together with the synoptic lift of the H500 height falls should to a band of snow showers moving from northwest to southeast on Saturday. More than half the members of the ensemble guidance show at least some precipitation, so have increased the pops to 50-60 percent range. Temperatures will be falling below freezing, and northwest winds will be on the order of 25 to 30 mph, so could have some travel impacts despite the minor accumulations of a dusting to an inch.
Looking ahead, cooler weather will settle in for early next week, but temperatures warm above average again by the middle of the week. Dry conditions are expected as well, with no significant systems in the foreseeable future.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
Issued at 1049 AM CST Thu Dec 7 2023
Clear skies will continue through this evening with light southeasterly winds. Through the evening and overnight, winds will shift to the southwest ahead of an approaching cold front.
Cloud cover will increase, but the majority of terminals will remain VFR. SCT-BKN MVFR ceilings are possible for our northern-most sites (KAXN, KSTC) as the parent low skirts along the Canadian border. Borderline VFR/MVFR is possible for KMSP/KRNH/KEAU by sunrise. Winds will continue to shift to the west through the remainder of the period and increase to 10-15kts.
KMSP...Kept mention of LLWS between 02-05z. As mentioned above, some borderline VFR/MVFR cigs are possible by 12z, but a return to VFR is expected by late morning. Wind gusts of up to 20kts out of the west-southwest develop after 16z.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ SAT...VFR, CHC MVFR/-SN. WIND NW 10-15KTS.
SUN...VFR. WIND NW 10-15KTS.
MON...VFR. WIND SW 10-15KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...None.
WI...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 1104 AM CST Thu Dec 7 2023
KEY MESSAGES
- December warmth continues today (and Friday), with record highs possible.
- Cooler air returns this weekend.
- On Saturday confidence is increasing that snow showers and falling temperatures could lead to slick spots on roads.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 303 AM CST Thu Dec 7 2023
Record Highs for Today 12/7 MSP: 54/1939 STC: 53/1939 EAU: 49/1916
Today...The warm weather that has been advertised for days remains on tap for this afternoon and to some extent on Friday.
Early morning satellite imagery showed a few high clouds overhead, with light winds. Despite the light winds, surface temperatures were still in the upper 20s to lower 30s. Meanwhile temperatures aloft were more impressive, with the 00Z balloon measuring over 12C at 875 mb! Although we will not mix up to 875 mb, the warm start to the day, together with filtered sunshine and warm air aloft will lead to record or near record temperatures this afternoon. We continued the trend of going above the blended guidance for temperatures both today and tomorrow. The one thing not going for a runaway temperature day is the easterly component in the surface winds, but the overall set up is very favorable for record warmth.
Friday through Wednesday...On Friday the winds will become more westerly with gusts of 20 to 30 mph, but the mild air remains in place ahead of a stronger cold front that will move through the region Friday night and Saturday.
There are two drivers for precipitation chances late Friday night and Saturday. The first is a shortwave trough in southwest flow that This cold front is being driven by an upper level shortwave trough that will lead to a small area of cyclogenesis and precipitation across eastern Iowa and Wisconsin. This could clip the western counties and places like Ladysmith, Chippewa Falls, and Eau Claire. Temperatures will be such that a rain/snow mix is most likely, but any accumulation should be less than an inch.
The second driver is a northern stream shortwave trough that will drive the aforementioned cold front through the region.
The cold air advection together with the synoptic lift of the H500 height falls should to a band of snow showers moving from northwest to southeast on Saturday. More than half the members of the ensemble guidance show at least some precipitation, so have increased the pops to 50-60 percent range. Temperatures will be falling below freezing, and northwest winds will be on the order of 25 to 30 mph, so could have some travel impacts despite the minor accumulations of a dusting to an inch.
Looking ahead, cooler weather will settle in for early next week, but temperatures warm above average again by the middle of the week. Dry conditions are expected as well, with no significant systems in the foreseeable future.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
Issued at 1049 AM CST Thu Dec 7 2023
Clear skies will continue through this evening with light southeasterly winds. Through the evening and overnight, winds will shift to the southwest ahead of an approaching cold front.
Cloud cover will increase, but the majority of terminals will remain VFR. SCT-BKN MVFR ceilings are possible for our northern-most sites (KAXN, KSTC) as the parent low skirts along the Canadian border. Borderline VFR/MVFR is possible for KMSP/KRNH/KEAU by sunrise. Winds will continue to shift to the west through the remainder of the period and increase to 10-15kts.
KMSP...Kept mention of LLWS between 02-05z. As mentioned above, some borderline VFR/MVFR cigs are possible by 12z, but a return to VFR is expected by late morning. Wind gusts of up to 20kts out of the west-southwest develop after 16z.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ SAT...VFR, CHC MVFR/-SN. WIND NW 10-15KTS.
SUN...VFR. WIND NW 10-15KTS.
MON...VFR. WIND SW 10-15KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...None.
WI...None.
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Airport Reports
EDIT (on/off) Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KMIC CRYSTAL,MN | 8 sm | 50 min | ESE 04 | 10 sm | Clear | 52°F | 34°F | 50% | 29.53 | |
| KFCM FLYING CLOUD,MN | 9 sm | 50 min | ESE 10 | 10 sm | Clear | 54°F | 36°F | 50% | 29.51 | |
| KMSP MINNEAPOLISST PAUL INTL/WOLDCHAMBERLAIN,MN | 10 sm | 50 min | ESE 10 | 10 sm | A Few Clouds | 50°F | 34°F | 54% | 29.54 | |
| KANE ANOKA COUNTYBLAINE (JANES FIELD),MN | 16 sm | 54 min | ESE 07 | 10 sm | Clear | 52°F | 36°F | 54% | 29.54 | |
| KSTP ST PAUL DOWNTOWN HOLMAN FLD,MN | 17 sm | 50 min | ESE 08 | 10 sm | Clear | 50°F | 36°F | 58% | 29.56 | |
| KSGS SOUTH ST PAUL MUNIRICHARD E FLEMING FLD,MN | 20 sm | 28 min | SE 06 | 7 sm | Clear | 50°F | 34°F | 54% | 29.54 | |
| KLVN AIRLAKE,MN | 23 sm | 28 min | ESE 08 | 10 sm | Clear | 46°F | 34°F | 61% | 29.54 |
Wind History from MSP
(wind in knots)
Minneapolis, MN,
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