Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for St. Louis Park, MN

DISCUSSION
Issued at 326 AM CDT Tue Jun 9 2026

Tonight has been quiet as earlier showers and storms have dissipated. Nighttime microphysics satellite imagery and observations show fog has formed in southeastern MN and west-central WI early this morning. The edge of the fog has been migrating northwest and should continue into eastern MN and the remainder of west-central WI by sunrise. The fog isn't too thick yet, but expecting visibilities in localized areas to drop to near 1/2 mile by sunrise, especially over our WI counties where much of today's rain fell. Quiet, dry weather will continue through this afternoon as our hot temperatures arrive. Highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s are forecast this afternoon. This combined with the mid to upper 60s dewpoints, heat indices will rise into the mid to upper 90s for much of south-central to southwestern MN. We currently don't have any heat headlines issued but that doesn't mean to be careful if working or doing activities outside. Be sure to drink plenty of water, take frequent breaks, and find shade. Winds will also be breezy across western MN today as southeasterly LLJ strengthens ahead of an approaching upper-level trough. Gusts will reach 30 MPH this afternoon for our far western MN counties.

A line of scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop late Tuesday afternoon/evening across the central Dakotas. These storms should quickly become severe while racing east, likely growing upscale into multiple lines/bowing segments as they near the eastern Dakotas/western MN around midnight Wednesday. The Storm Prediction Center has extended the Enhanced risk into our far western MN counties for Tuesday night. CAMs suggest that the bowing lines of storms could remain strong into western MN, owing to the forecast 3000-4000 J/kg of CAPE. With these bowing segments, strong, damaging winds would be the main severe hazard, but one or two tornadoes along the leading edge of the storms also cannot be ruled out. Bulk shear values will drop to 30 knots and below the farther east one goes into MN and the loss of daytime heating will allow for the boundary layer to decouple and storms to eventually become elevated. Thus, we're expecting a weakening trend in the convection as the lines of storms move across MN Tuesday night. CAMs show the storms reaching eastern MN/western WI near sunrise Wednesday morning.
Small hail and gusty winds may still occur within any of the stronger cells. Much of the area should see a good soaking rain also as forecast models show additional elevated convection developing overnight within the low-level WAA.

A lot of uncertainty surrounds Wednesday's forecast. The aforementioned lines of showers and storms are forecast to exit our CWA to the east near or just after sunrise. A lot of convective debris (cloud cover) could be left in its wake across our area.
Additionally, CAMs are showing some hints of elevated showers and thunderstorms redeveloping across MN during mid-morning within the continued WAA. If this were to occur, the precipitation would move east into WI by early afternoon. How hot we get by Wednesday afternoon will be dependent on how much heating we get through the breaks in the clouds. The air will still be very moist, so if temperatures rise into the mid 80s to lower 90s (as forecast), heat indices could climb to near 100 in the afternoon. Meanwhile, the upper-level trough will continue east into the Central/Northern Plains while a strong jetstreak begins to enter the base. Strong upper-level diffluence downstream over the very moist and (likely)
unstable airmass will set the stage for another round of potential severe weather Wednesday afternoon and evening. A cold front will advance east across MN with scattered thunderstorms developing ahead of it somewhere near the I-35 corridor in east-central and southern MN early Wednesday afternoon. If the earlier precipitation and cloud cover doesn't hinder instability, the RAP forecasts 3000-4000 J/kg MLCAPE amid 45-55 knots of bulk shear. This would easily initially support supercells with all severe hazards possible. Hail could be in excess of 2" owing to steep mid-level lapse rates and large CAPE.
There is also an increased threat for tornadoes, especially where earlier precipitation hasn't contaminated the surface environment.
This seems most probable across southeastern MN and western WI where greatest low-level helicity and instability are forecast. One or two strong tornadoes (EF2+) are not out of the question so this potential will continue to be closely monitored. Please follow along with the forecast and be prepared Wednesday afternoon in case severe weather occurs. The linear-ish shear profile and lift along the cold front likely mean supercells will grow upscale into bowing line segments as they travel east into WI. CAMs show these bowing lines being strong and persisting across WI until they exit our CWA during Wednesday evening. Damaging wind gusts and tornadoes would then prevail as the primary severe threats. The Storm Prediction Center currently has the eastern half of our CWA in an Enhanced risk for Wednesday. But, as stated earlier, the evolution of the morning showers and thunderstorms will be crucial to how Wednesday afternoon/evening unfolds. We will continue to monitor the forecast for any potential changes.

The upper-level trough will swing through MN/WI Thursday into Friday, bringing milder temperatures to end the week. Highs Thursday through Saturday are forecast to be largely in the 70s. Post-frontal showers and perhaps a thunderstorm are possible across the southern half of MN and WI during Thursday but drier incoming air afterwards will limit any significant chances for precipitation into next week.
Thus, if you're fan of milder, summer weather, Thursday onwards looks great.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
Issued at 549 AM CDT Tue Jun 9 2026

Most sites start off with low stratus and fog in MVFR to IFR range. All sites should return to VFR by mid to late morning and remain VFR throughout the remainder of the TAF. A mix of mid to high level clouds will be present this afternoon. Attention turns to tonight's TS potential. I have included PROB30s for TSRA as forecast confidence has increased enough that an MCS will likely traverse from W MN to W WI tonight. Exact details remain uncertain. Winds will generally be under 10kts with gusts into the low 20s.

KMSP... initial low stratus and BR will dissipate quickly this morning. TSRA timing w/PROB30 for tonight may change depending on what develops upstream this evening.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ WED...Early AM IFR/-TSRA likely. Chance Afternoon IFR/+TSRA Wind S 15-20G30 kts.
THU...VFR. Chance PM -TSRA. Wind W 10-15G25 kts.
FRI...VFR. Wind W 15G30kt.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...None.
WI...None.