Thursday, July9, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
St. Louis Park, MN

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:35AMSunset 9:02PM Thursday July 9, 2020 5:29 AM CDT (10:29 UTC) Moonrise 11:02PMMoonset 9:08AM Illumination 84% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near St. Louis Park, MN
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location: 44.95, -93.38     debug


Area Discussion for - Twin Cities, MN
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FXUS63 KMPX 090912 AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 412 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2020

SHORT TERM. (Today through Friday) Issued at 412 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2020

Two convective clusters - one over northern Minnesota (heading east northeast) and the other over northeast Kansas (heading southeast) are diverging, leaving a large void over most of the CWA. An outflow boundary associated with the MN cluster is pushing east across eastern MN and a few showers have developed behind it. Not expecting these to build into much and little activity is anticipated through the morning as the overnight convection has contaminated the prefrontal atmosphere across the CWA. As the surface cold front heads southeast this afternoon, it will encounter a recovering airmass over southern MN and WI. Warm and unstable air should allow thunderstorm development to take place before quickly shifting to the southeast this evening. The severe threat is low and should be sporadic like it has been during the last couple days. A couple storms could produce large hail and damaging winds.

A Canadian airmass with the coolest temperatures since late June will arrive tonight. Lows in the upper 50s to mid 60s are expected. Will need to watch out for fog formation with crossover temperatures being met and winds decoupling. The column will be rather dry, however, so not forecasting anything widespread.

A seasonably warm day with comfortable humidity and plenty of sunshine is on tap for Friday.

LONG TERM. (Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 412 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2020

Two pattern shifts should take place into late July. An intense ridge will retreat to the southwest and build to over 600 dm, allowing a trough to develop across the north central and eastern parts of the United States. This will result in northwest flow for the Upper Midwest and a fairly active pattern. Numerous systems coming onshore the Canadian Pacific coast will send smaller disturbances across the Northern Plains to Great Lakes, offering periodic thunderstorm chances. Some severe weather will be possible with these, but such fine scale features responsible for that possibility are not well forecast beyond about 12 hours. Therefore, precip probabilities are broad and reside in the mid range until confidence increases either way. This pattern will keep temperatures near normal with highs in the 80s and lows in the 60s.

The pattern will shift again by the middle of next week as the ridge spreads eastward across the southern half of the country. By late next week, model guidance has been fairly consistent in showing a massive ridge of nearly 600 dm encompassing the southern two thirds of the U.S. An intense heat wave would be expected with the possibility of widespread 100s under the ridge into late July. Ensemble spread is quite large for us being on the edge and ranges from the intense heat scenario to a cooler and stormier pattern in the ring of fire. Either way, it will be interesting to watch.

AVIATION. (For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night) Issued at 1127 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2020

Generally VFR conditions throughout. There is a chance for showers and thunderstorms. These storms should weaken as they move eastward overnight, but could see some redevelopment on Thursday, especially east of I-35.

KMSP . Generally VFR conditions throughout, but could have some thunderstorms on Thursday. As of now the best chance is around mid-day. Winds should become northwesterly.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ FRI . VFR. Wind NW at 10-15 kt. SAT . VFR with -TSRA possible. Wind NW at 10 kt. SUN . VFR. Wind VRB at 05 kt.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. WI . None. MN . None.

SHORT TERM . Borghoff LONG TERM . Borghoff AVIATION . JRB


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Minneapolis, Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport, MN9 mi37 minno data10.00 miThunderstorm Light Rain79°F72°F79%1008.8 hPa
Minneapolis, Crystal Airport, MN9 mi37 minSW 68.00 miThunderstorm in Vicinity Light Rain79°F71°F77%1007.6 hPa
Minneapolis - Flying Cloud Airport, MN9 mi97 minS 710.00 miPartly Cloudy79°F70°F74%1007 hPa
South St. Paul Municipal-Richard E. Flemi, MN14 mi54 minS 510.00 miFair78°F72°F83%1008.5 hPa
Minneapolis / Blaine, MN17 mi55 minSW 7 G 147.00 miHeavy Rain81°F71°F74%1008.5 hPa
Downtown Holman Field, MN18 mi37 minSW 610.00 miThunderstorm in Vicinity80°F72°F76%1008 hPa
Minneapolis, Airlake Airport, MN23 mi54 minN 010.00 miPartly Cloudy79°F77°F94%1009.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KFCM

Wind History from FCM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE7SE4SE3N14
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S9S10S10S8S7S5NW3S7S73
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1 day agoCalmCalmE5CalmNE8E6NE46E84445N4E4E6E6E6SE4SE4SE5SE4SE6SE6
2 days agoSW3SW6CalmSW4N4NE63SW4S8SW9W6NW8W6W6SW5CalmSW4W3CalmW3CalmCalmSW3Calm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Twin Cities, MN (6,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Minneapolis, MN
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.