Saturday, January25, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
St. Louis Park, MN

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:38AMSunset 5:12PM Saturday January 25, 2020 7:24 AM CST (13:24 UTC) Moonrise 8:26AMMoonset 6:01PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 0 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near St. Louis Park, MN
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location: 44.95, -93.38     debug


Area Discussion for - Twin Cities, MN
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FXUS63 KMPX 251203 AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 603 AM CST Sat Jan 25 2020

SHORT TERM. (Today through Sunday) Issued at 319 AM CST Sat Jan 25 2020

No significant issues are expected during the short term, with skies remaining cloudy and a couple of chances for minor wintry precip.

Vertically stacked low over Michigan this morning will continue to send lobes of vorticity west into western WI, with periods of light snow continuing there through the early afternoon. Everywhere else, it will once again be cloudy, with highs only rising around 3 degrees above morning lows.

Tonight, with the expectation that cloud cover will persist, did raise overnight lows some, keeping them more in line with the 75th percentile. Late in the night going into Sunday morning, the short wave currently over southern Alberta will be moving into southeast SD. This wave has a pretty strong PV reflection to it, with PV advection out ahead of it likely leading to a narrow band of precip working across SD and into western MN. There will be a warmer than 0C warm nose out ahead of this forcing, which will bring the threat of a freezing rain/snow mix depending on how long this warm nose can hold out. Have things as all snow for now, but it will be something to keep an eye later today. For Sunday afternoon, the core of this wave will drop down to the southwest of MN, so don't think we'll see any additional precip after the Saturday night/Sunday morning wave. With this wave staying to our southwest, it will also help keep the clouds in place, with another day of cloudy skies expected for Sunday.

LONG TERM. (Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 319 AM CST Sat Jan 25 2020

Through the middle of next week, the mean upper pattern remains split with the southern stream of the jet more active vs. the northern. The bulk of the cold air will remain in Alaska and north of the arctic circle with a fast quasi-zonal flow aloft. Two weak short waves will move across the Upper Midwest next week. The first will arrive around Tuesday/Wednesday, with a slightly stronger wave by the end of the week. Either way, it doesn't look as though these waves will produce anything more than a light dusting, or perhaps a couple of inches of snow. Temperatures will remain above average through next week, with highs in the 30s, and lows in the 20s.

The 5-day 500MB mean heights are slowly changing next week. The deep trough over the Gulf of Alaska will begin to weaken and move inland across Canada by the end of January. There seems to be several stronger short waves breaking down the mean pattern which translates to an inland long wave trough becoming established across western Canada by the end of next week.

Although both the EC and GFS have differences on the amplitude and timing of this change, there has been a trend of moving this deep trough across southern Canada the first week of February. Thus, and once it becomes more established, the mean flow will begin to change to a more northwest flow. This will lead to colder air masses moving southward across the northern tier of the nation. There remains some timing issues with this change. However, it does support at least below normal temperatures after the first few days of February.

AVIATION. (For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning) Issued at 603 AM CST Sat Jan 25 2020

It will be cloudy again today, though expect cigs to run more MVFR/VFR as opposed to IFR/MVFR as they have the past couple of days. Occasional light snow will continue for WI terminals through the early afternoon, though even MVFR vis restrictions may be hard to come by. Tonight, a narrow band of precip, likely fzra, will move across the eastern Dakotas. Most models show this falling apart and transitioning to snow as it moves into MN, but this will be something to watch between 8z and 12z at AXN/RWF. Tonight, pressure gradient will become baggy. Current thinking is that we will maintain stratus, but there is a chance we could see fog develop from western into central MN.

KMSP . Lots of VFR cigs to our west may be a sign that we'll see cigs at MSP higher than currently forecast. A the very least, there's good model agreement that by the afternoon, cigs will climb above the 018 mark, with them dropping back below that level at some point in the evening. Given the light winds/limited mixing expected tonight, the return below 018 could happen a few hours earlier than what the 12z TAF has.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ Sun-Tue . MVFR, chc IFR cigs. Wind lgt and vrb.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. WI . None. MN . None.

SHORT TERM . MPG LONG TERM . JLT AVIATION . MPG


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Minneapolis, Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport, MN9 mi31 minNW 1010.00 miOvercast29°F24°F82%1015 hPa
Minneapolis, Crystal Airport, MN9 mi31 minNW 1010.00 miOvercast28°F23°F81%1015 hPa
Minneapolis - Flying Cloud Airport, MN9 mi31 minNW 910.00 miOvercast29°F23°F78%1014.9 hPa
South St. Paul Municipal-Richard E. Flemi, MN14 mi28 minNW 510.00 miOvercast30°F26°F87%1013.5 hPa
Minneapolis / Blaine, MN17 mi37 minNW 710.00 miOvercast30°F26°F86%1013.9 hPa
Downtown Holman Field, MN18 mi31 minNW 910.00 miOvercast30°F24°F79%1014.8 hPa
Minneapolis, Airlake Airport, MN23 mi49 minWNW 1010.00 miOvercast28°F28°F100%1013.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KFCM

Wind History from FCM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN7N7N8N7N7N8N7N6N8N8N8NW7N8N6NW7NW8NW8NW10NW8NW6NW9NW8NW7NW9
1 day agoE5E5E4NE5NE6NE6NE6E7NE4CalmNE4NE7NE5NE3N3N5N4N5N6N5N7N7N7N8
2 days agoS10SW12S10
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Twin Cities, MN (8,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Minneapolis, MN
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.