Sunday, January17, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
St. Louis Park, MN

Version 3.4
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8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:44AMSunset 5:02PM Sunday January 17, 2021 2:35 AM CST (08:35 UTC) Moonrise 10:37AMMoonset 10:02PM Illumination 16% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near St. Louis Park, MN
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location: 44.95, -93.38     debug


Area Discussion for - Twin Cities, MN
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FXUS63 KMPX 170457 AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 1057 PM CST Sat Jan 16 2021

SHORT TERM. (This evening through Sunday night) Issued at 305 PM CST Sat Jan 16 2021

Occasional light snow or flurries have started earlier this afternoon and radar depicts a narrow band of light snow from Mora to St. Cloud and Hutchinson moving eastward. A short wave passing through will keep chances for light snow through most of the evening, but it shouldn't be consequential. Otherwise, cloud cover will linger through the night, which is nothing new this winter. The clouds will keep temps nearly steady in the upper teens and 20s.

Sunday will be rather similar to today. Another short wave passing through will be responsible for some light snow or flurries by afternoon and evening. Forecast soundings depict an atmosphere with deep enough moisture to bring mostly snow. While unlikely, it is not out of the realm of possibility the DGZ may be drier and allow for patchy freezing drizzle as well. The more likely scenario would be the lack of precip entirely due to the weak lift.

LONG TERM. (Monday through Saturday) Issued at 305 PM CST Sat Jan 16 2021

Northwesterly flow looks likely to dominate much of this period. A few short waves are expected to move along this flow and could provide chances for some light snow. There is little agreement on these waves between the different deterministic systems and within most ensemble systems. The first of these possible short waves arrives late Monday into Tuesday as a clipper type low and cold front move through the Upper Midwest and Northern Plains. The GFS and some GEFS members are the main drivers of precipitation chances here, but with little agreement in other systems this looks unlikely. What is more likely are the temperature shifts this week. Expect the early part of the week to continue with near normal temperatures falling slightly with the cold front passing Monday night into Tuesday. Warm air advection then sets up as we head into the midweek returning us to above normal and near freezing high temperatures. This warmer air will be short lived as we return to more of a cold air pattern and fall to below normal temperatures, for the first time in January for most locations, late in the week into next weekend. So despite the temperatures only being a little below normal our warmer than normal trend of recent may make this feel quite cold. Based on Climate Prediction Center Outlooks the colder weather is likely to continue into the end of the month. The other wave of note comes in near the end of the period next weekend. Some systems like the CMC GDPS are suggesting snow, while others like the GFS keep this system farther south. The full ensemble in the NBM has more confidence in this later wave than the early week one, but with the time range and variability between model systems the probability of this system hitting the Upper Midwest remains low at this time.

AVIATION. (For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night) Issued at 1057 PM CST Sat Jan 16 2021

It will be a tricky night for the cig forecast, with VFR conditions right now in place for most locations west of the I-35 corridor. Do expect these VFR conditions to creep toward the east this evening, likely getting to MSP, but not as far as RNH. 00z HREF probs for cigs less than 3k feet has at least caught on to the general idea of these VFR conditions, so used it to guide where VFR conditions make it tonight, then time when MVFR/IFR cigs fill back in during the morning. Also used the HREF probs to give the idea of another VFR hole developing over western/central MN Sunday evening. We'll have a couple of weak waves pass through this period, but not expecting any precip out of them, with a dry layer of air remaining in place between the mid level clouds where the precip is generated and the moisture near the surface.

KMSP . VFR conditions have been making slow progress east, but given the NW surface flow, think the VFR conditions make it to MSP tonight. It's then a question of how long it takes to see MVFR/IFR cigs return on Sunday, could certainly be earlier than 6z TAF indicates. Not anticipating any precip, by can not completely rule out seeing some snowflakes between roughly 21z and 00z.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ Mon . MVFR ceilings. Wind NW 5-10 kts. Tue . Mainly VFR. MVFR ceilings possible. Wind WNW 5-10 kts. Wed . VFR. Wind SW 10-15 kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MN . None. WI . None.

SHORT TERM . Borghoff LONG TERM . NDC AVIATION . MPG


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Minneapolis, Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport, MN9 mi42 minWNW 69.00 miOvercast21°F17°F85%1009.8 hPa
Minneapolis, Crystal Airport, MN9 mi42 minNW 610.00 miOvercast20°F16°F85%1009.4 hPa
Minneapolis - Flying Cloud Airport, MN9 mi42 minNNW 68.00 miOvercast20°F15°F81%1009.3 hPa
South St. Paul Municipal-Richard E. Flemi, MN14 mi40 minNW 610.00 miOvercast23°F20°F87%1008.5 hPa
Minneapolis / Blaine, MN17 mi40 minNW 410.00 miOvercast21°F19°F93%1008.1 hPa
Downtown Holman Field, MN18 mi42 minWNW 710.00 miOvercast23°F18°F81%1009.6 hPa
Minneapolis, Airlake Airport, MN23 mi40 minW 610.00 miOvercast19°F19°F100%1008.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KFCM

Wind History from FCM (wind in knots)
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2 days agoSE5SE4SE5E3E3CalmCalmSW4W4W6W8W6W4W5NW8NW4NW6N8N6N8N9N10N10N12
G21

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.