Sunrise 6:18 AM   Sunset 8:05 PM Moonrise 2:56 PM   Moonset 3:55 AM

  Print   HELP   Reset   Save   Recall

FXUS63 KMPX 190521 AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 1221 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Frost/Freeze tonight as temperatures fall into the low 30s.
More chances the next couple mornings.

- Quiet weather otherwise through the weekend, the next rain bearing system arrives early next week.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 208 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

The last of our round of light showers has pushed through western WI as of late this morning, with a brief window of sunshine and clearer skies followed by some agitated cumulus clouds spreading across much of the area today. Satellite shows a window of clear skies stretching from Albert Lea to Eau Claire as of around 2pm, with cumulus clouds a short distance away moving eastwards as prevailing flow remains out of the west. Winds have remained breezy today with gusts as high as 30mph out of the west sustained at 15mph, and winds will remain somewhat breezy overnight but lose the gusts. The main concern over the next 72 hours will be falling temperatures overnight which could lead to frost/freeze concerns, as our abnormal winter with warmer conditions alongside the rain we received earlier in the week has led to some susceptible vegetation. Temperatures look to fall into the low 30s and even upper 20s in spots for the next few mornings, so anyone with sensitive plants already planted or put outside should look to cover them or move them indoors through at least Monday morning. Breezy winds should keep us from seeing temperatures plummet into the 20s everywhere, thus we may straddle the edge between a frost/freeze especially for the metro where we typically end up a few degrees warmer.

High pressure will result in quiet conditions otherwise through the weekend and into early next week ahead of our next rain bearing system arriving Monday into Tuesday. Rain looks to arrive Monday afternoon with synoptic forcing in the form of the left exit region of an upper level jet as a weak but broad mid to upper level trough looks to occlude and spin across the area. Lower level support in the form of increasing moisture/warmth due to an 850mb jet will arrive in tandem, resulting in a period of light to moderate showers lasting about 18-24 hours before the entire system moves across the Great Lakes. Right now given the expected moisture and forcing, we are not expecting anything convective and rain amounts look to be rather meager, around a tenth to quarter of an inch. One consequence of this system with return flow shifting to the south later in the week will be increasing warmth, with above normal low to mid 60s possible by next weekend. As we head towards the last week of the month, the trend looks to be towards slightly warmer than normal temperatures as our normals approach 60 for highs by that point, with precipitation trends also looking to slightly favor above normal.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
Issued at 1215 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

The stratocu around 5-7k feet should continue to thin out overnight, resulting in mostly clear skies for all terminals until we see redevelopment tomorrow morning. Most sites will return to BKN/OVC VFR for much of tomorrow, with cigs bottoming out around 5k feet.
Strong west winds also make a return tomorrow, with gusts up to 35 kts expected. We are still keeping an eye on the potential for snow showers tomorrow, however snow reports continue to be limited upstream this evening, so have opted to keep mention out for now.

KMSP...No additional concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ SAT...VFR. Wind NW 10-15G20-25kts.
SUN...VFR. Wind WNW 10-15kts.
MON...Chc MVFR/-SHRA in aftn. Wind S 10-15kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...Freeze Warning until 8 AM CDT this morning for Anoka-Blue Earth-Brown-Carver-Chippewa-Dakota-Faribault-Freeborn- Goodhue-Hennepin-Kandiyohi-Lac Qui Parle-Le Sueur-Martin- McLeod-Meeker-Nicollet-Ramsey-Redwood-Renville-Rice-Scott- Sibley-Steele-Waseca-Washington-Watonwan-Wright-Yellow Medicine.
WI...Freeze Warning until 8 AM CDT this morning for Chippewa-Dunn- Eau Claire-Pepin-Pierce-St. Croix.

Full Color Weather Map

Link to Loop


Other links: GEOS-West     Contential US     Full GOES-East

Minneapolis, MN,