NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION. Privacy and Cookie policy

FXUS63 KMPX 042140 AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 340 PM CST Mon Dec 4 2023

KEY MESSAGES

- Light snow showers and flurries are possible through tonight.
Minimal impacts expected.

- Significantly warmer Wednesday and Thursday, with the potential for record setting highs in the 50s.

- Cooler, more seasonable temperatures for the upcoming weekend, along with a mainly dry forecast.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 340 PM CST Mon Dec 4 2023

Widespread cloud cover will continue to be the theme for the remainder of the day, though we'll introduce light wintry precipitation into the forecast over the next few hours. Temperatures have climbed a few degrees above December normals, in the mid to upper 30s at many locations this afternoon. Early afternoon MRMS imagery shows widespread echoes moving to the southeast out of the Dakotas into western Minnesota. These radar echoes are associated with a positively tilted shortwave trough that will progress to the southeast this afternoon and evening. Upstream observations show that light precipitation is reaching the surface, though intensity is limited due to mid-level dry air depicted on forecast soundings. Latest CAM suite illustrates the potential for flurries/light snow showers this afternoon and evening, with another batch of light snow showers in western Wisconsin tonight. Grand Ensemble HRRR probabilities indicate that there is potential for some raindrops to mix this afternoon, but the most likely precip type will be snowflakes, especially as the evening progresses. Nonetheless, little accumulation is expected at most sites, so impacts should be minimal. The best chance for minor snow accumulations will be in western Wisconsin. A few flurries may persist across the area through early tomorrow morning.

Widespread stratus will linger into much of Tuesday, though there is some hope for clearing by mid to late afternoon. HRRR low cloud guidance indicates that some sunshine will be possible along and west of I-35 prior to sunset. Locations further to the east of I-35 will likely be slower to clear. High temperatures will top out in the low to mid 30s.

Significant changes arrive for the middle of the work week. Expansive upper-level ridging will be accompanied by a wing of strong warm-air advection that will warm temperatures well above normal Wednesday and Thursday. We've continued the trend of bumping up high temperatures to the 75th/90th percentiles of NBM guidance, in collaboration with our neighbors. Latest forecast grids feature highs in the 40s and 50s Wednesday and Thursday, with the potential for record setting values Thursday afternoon at KMSP, KSTC, and KEAU. We've included the record highs below.

The warm up will not last too long, as a late week cold front and associated cold air advection will drop temperatures to more seasonal values (30s) for the weekend. As far as a signal for active weather, global deterministic and ensemble solutions point towards a storm system over the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley around 12/10, but confidence in a track that brings QPF towards the Twin Cities is quite low at this time. We'll continue to lean with the thinking from the overnight shift...mainly dry and quiet through the extended period.

Record Highs for Thursday 12/7 MSP: 54/1939 STC: 53/1939 EAU: 49/1916

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
Issued at 1206 PM CST Mon Dec 4 2023

Stratus blankets the area once again, though there is a clearing line in the stratus over western MN that is obscured on satellite by mid level clouds ahead of the shortwave currently up by Bismark. How far east this clearing makes it is a bit uncertain, but it does look to have enough umph behind it to get to at least AXN & MKT to go along with RWF. As for that shortwave, best chance of some light snow tonight based on RAP forecast soundings is at EAU, which is where the entire atmospheric column becomes saturated (all other terminals are battling a dry layer below 8k ft). This wave will also bring IFR/MVFR cigs back into western MN, though delayed the arrival of those cigs several hours based on the lack of lower clouds upstream in the Dakotas. Clouds will be clearing out on Tuesday, but that doesn't really look to happen in earnest until after 16z Tuesday.

KMSP...You can't completely rule out snow this evening between roughly 1z and 6z, though that chance does not warrant a mention in the TAF at this point. CIGS have been slowly trending up through the morning, so still do expect MVFR cigs this evening, though a return to IFR cigs looks likely tonight. We're still far out for the clearing Tuesday afternoon, but based that timing on what we see from the HRRR, though the 15z RAP forecast sounding keeps the cloud layer saturated into Wednesday morning.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ WED...VFR. Wind SSW 15G25 kts.
THU...VFR. Wind S 5-10 kts.
FRI...VFR. Wind WNW 15G25 kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...None.
WI...None.

toggle option: (graph/table)

Full Color Weather Map

Link to Loop


Other links: GEOS-West     Contential US     Full GOES-East

Minneapolis, MN,