Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Woodland, MN

DISCUSSION
Issued at 259 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025

The swirl of a system on GOES 19 continues this morning as our system will be moving out today, with continued cloud cover and breezy winds until it pushes into the eastern Great Lakes later tonight. The persistent light showers tonight are pushing into western Wisconsin with dry air finally wrapping enough to dry things out west of the Twin Cities as of around 3am, with eastern MN dry by 6am and western WI by later this afternoon. The focus of the forecast transitions from light showers to likely frost tomorrow night for areas of central and western Minnesota with a wedge of cool air at 850mb following the departing system as our upper level flow transitions to WNW. Skies will be clearing later in the day and will allow for rapidly cooling temperatures down into the low to mid 30s in western Minnesota to near 40 in the Twin Cities and western WI. We are far enough along where everything is green and growing, such that sensitive plants should be covered or brought inside to protect them from the cold especially given the warm temperatures over the last week to 10 days.

The cooler air in the mid levels retreats northwards by early Monday as we transition towards our next weather system arriving later on Monday into Tuesday, with a developing trough and surface low ejecting over the Rockies before stalling over western SD/NE. Lower level flow over southern Minnesota will tilt towards the southeast as a warm sector like environment begins to form south of a pseudo- stationary frontal boundary. The main differences between ensemble guidance right now is in the placement of said front, which is going to be the cutoff between little to no rainfall north of the front and the production of scattered to widespread showers and weak storms south of the front. Instability is somewhat lacking in forecast soundings and there is not enough veering to produce good shear such that thunderstorm potential looks fairly low and some rumbles of thunder are the expectation, especially as this system will be much cooler compared to our previous one. The showers could persist as long as early Wednesday in southern Minnesota before the upper level low ejects into eastern Canada leaving us with northerly flow and drying air once again.

There are some hints at a return to warmer temperatures by Memorial Day weekend within much of the global guidance with warmer 850mb temperatures developing over the central Rockies and moving towards the region by Memorial Day. For right now, ensembles show a significant spread such that confidence is low, however the upper level pattern looks to favor warming back to at least normal if not above normal temperatures by the end of the month.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
Issued at 607 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025

Added TEMPO groups at AXN and STC for a few hours this morning as periods of IFR cigs look possible. Though, all terminals will largely be MVFR with low overcast stratus persisting through most of today. Went a bit more pessimistic for our eastern terminals with the MVFR stratus failing to lift or break apart enough to reach VFR by the end of the TAF period. Across western MN lies more hope as greater breaks in the clouds should allow for VFR by tonight. Northwesterly winds will be breezy this morning into the afternoon. Strongest winds are expected in western MN where sustained values of near 15 knots and gusts to 25 knots are forecast. However, winds gradually slow this afternoon into this evening, falling to near 5 knots and becoming more northerly after midnight.

KMSP...Cigs near 1100 feet should persist until about 19Z where they will then rise to 2000 feet. Have opted to hold onto MVFR until 08Z given low-level saturation in forecast soundings.
Northwesterly winds will gust to 20-25 knots during today.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ SUN...VFR. Wind NE 5-10 kts.
MON...Mainly VFR. Chance MVFR/SHRA. Wind E 15-20G30kts.
TUE...Mainly VFR. Chance MVFR/SHRA. Wind E 15-20G30kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Sunday for Benton- Chippewa-Douglas-Kandiyohi-Lac Qui Parle-Meeker-Morrison- Pope-Redwood-Renville-Stearns-Stevens-Swift-Todd-Yellow Medicine.
WI...None.