Sunrise 6:04 AM   Sunset 8:14 PM Moonrise 11:48 PM   Moonset 6:50 AM

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FXUS63 KMPX 262351 AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 651 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Additional rainfall and a few thunderstorms are expected late this afternoon through the overnight hours.

- Saturday will be drier, but rain will return for the second half of the weekend.

- Our active pattern will remain in place as we head into May with more chances for showers and thunderstorms.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 240 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

Our first round of rain from this morning is exiting eastern Minnesota and heading into northwestern Wisconsin early this afternoon. Further south and west, a new line of showers and thunderstorms is moving across southwestern Minnesota. Some hail has been reported with these storms across northwest Iowa, but as they continue into Minnesota, they will outrun the instability to our south. CAMs show this second line of showers and storms filling in from far northeastern South Dakota down through central Iowa as they move northeastward across the MPX area and lose some of their punch.
There is a threat for some hail with any of the stronger storms, particularly across southern Minnesota, but these storms are not expected to be severe. This wave will move into central Minnesota and western Wisconsin by late this afternoon with yet another on its heels. If we were to see any severe hail, it would be with this third line of storms as the warm front over Iowa continues to lift northward. However, confidence is low that this warm front will make it into Minnesota by this evening, limiting the chances for severe weather. In any case, rain is still expected area-wide through tonight with an additional quarter to half inch (with locally higher amounts) through Saturday morning.

Rain will end by mid morning across much of the area as the surface low slides overhead. The aforementioned associated warm front will lead to quite a temperature spread from western Minnesota in the mid to upper 50s for highs to near 70 in western Wisconsin. Cloud cover will stick around but winds will let up a bit before we find ourselves on the backside of this system with another surface low ejecting out of the Rockies and into the Central Plains on Sunday morning. This will be another widespread 0.75"-1.5" rain event through much of the day. Thunderstorm wise, we will again find ourselves on the wrong side of the warm front with any severe chances remaining to our south and east.

As we head into the final days of April, we'll warm up and dry out a bit. Monday will still be on the cooler side with breezy west winds and mostly cloudy skies as the low continues on into northern Minnesota before southerly flow ramps up overnight and into Tuesday, sending highs back into the upper 60s and low 70s. More showers are possible Tuesday ahead of a cold front as a quick moving shortwave moves along the International Border. Shower chances linger through the middle of the week with continued breezy winds and temperatures in the 50s and 60s.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
Issued at 631 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

Showers and storms over central MN will continue to push north, giving a brief break in precip early this evening. However, more convection is expected to develop over IA and southern MN later this evening as a surface low pushes northeast from eastern NE.
Mainly IFR is expected overnight as cigs drop below 1000 feet but periods of LIFR are possible with any thunderstorms reducing visibilities and cigs further. Rain should push off to our north near or before sunrise Saturday morning with a slow improvement of cigs afterwards from IFR in the morning to eventually MVFR by the afternoon. East-southeasterly winds of 17-23 knots will gust to 25-30 knots this evening but steadily slow across and turn to northwesterly from west to east overnight into Saturday afternoon as the low passes.

KMSP...Expecting additional showers and cigs to drop to IFR this evening. IFR conditions generally expected thru the overnight but a brief period of MVFR cigs is possible from 07-10z Saturday. MSP should improve to MVFR by early Saturday afternoon. Southeasterly winds will gust to over 30 knots this evening, steadily slowing to near 10 knots and turning clockwise to northerly by Saturday evening.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ SUN...MVFR/-RA, chance IFR/TS. Wind ENE 15-20G25-30 kts.
MON...MVFR/-SHRA early, then VFR. Wind W 15-20G30 kts.
TUE...Mainly VFR. Chance PM MVFR/-SHRA. Wind SW 10-15G20-25 kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...None.
WI...None.

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