Falcon Heights, MN Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Falcon Heights, MN

June 15, 2024 8:40 PM CDT (01:40 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 5:23 AM   Sunset 9:03 PM
Moonrise 1:41 PM   Moonset 12:52 AM 
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Falcon Heights, MN
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Area Discussion for - Twin Cities, MN
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FXUS63 KMPX 152358 AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 658 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Widespread rainfall continues through the evening, with a few strong to severe thunderstorms possible tonight mainly in southern Minnesota.

- Hot weather tomorrow with heat indices briefly exceeding 100 tomorrow afternoon in the metro and across southern Minnesota, with a Heat Advisory in place. WBGT creeps into the mid 80s with air temperatures in the low 90s.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 321 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

MPX Radar imagery shows a large swath of echoes from western WI all the way through the I-90 corridor, with light to moderate showers to continue this afternoon and evening. Satellite shows what has to this point been a lack of any significant convective activity with relatively warm cloud tops within infrared imagery as we await sunset and better forcing to produce better chances for thunderstorms. We still maintain a slight risk in far southern MN for storms later this evening although the overall risk is greater where instability is higher for portions of Nebraska & western Iowa.
As of around 3pm we have little surface instability to work with and remain capped with only a few lightning strikes observed over the course of the several hours of rainfall thus far. We will rely on growing low level moisture from a strengthening low level jet to strengthen our lower level moisture profile to be able to produce some actual thunderstorms, which does not look to occur until near sunset this evening. Rumbles of thunder will be evident overnight from lingering showers and storms before exiting by sunrise tomorrow, setting up what will be a hot and humid Sunday.

Sunday brings up the next trouble point of the forecast period, which will be our first attempt at 90 degree high temperatures this year coupled with lingering humidity from the overnight showers and storms, resulting in rising heat index & wet bulb globe temperatures tomorrow. With relatively cool nights and only one day of truly hot weather, we hopefully can avoid the risks to vulnerable populations that are typically associated with days of 100+ heat index values and mid 80 wet bulb globe temperatures. The Heat Advisory is in place for the metro as said heat indices rise towards 100, however brief the window is with only a 3-4 hour period of truly hot weather tomorrow afternoon before improvement is seen tomorrow evening. It would still be a good idea to avoid prolonged periods of strenuous outdoor activity without a break tomorrow, with plenty of shade and breaks for water being essential to keeping cool. The highest temperatures will focus on the Twin Cities metro, western Wisconsin and southern Minnesota, with lower temperatures as you head northwards down into the low to mid 80s by the time you reach Alexandria or Brainerd. Low temperatures then drop back into the 60s overnight as further showers and storms arrive after midnight and continue through much of next week.

Monday and Tuesday will look similar in terms of sensible weather with scattered showers likely to continue on and off throughout, with a period of increased risk for thunderstorms during each afternoon's peak heating time period. The main cause of the pattern will be ridging over the eastern CONUS as a trough digs across the northern Rockies, resulting in a prime upper level pattern for shortwave impulses and continued moisture influx across the northern plains. PWAT anomalies within NAEFS are 2-3 standard deviations above normal for this time of year which coupled with an environment favorable for showers and storms could lead to some impressive rain totals through Tuesday. WPC has produced a collaborated day 3 moderate Excessive Rain Outlook due to these factors coupled with a relatively wet summer thus far as well as fairly moist vegetation that may not be able to absorb as much liquid compared to a normal period. What this means is increased potential for flooding, both river flooding stretching into the end of the week and beyond in addition to flash flooding potential after a few days of rainfall, especially should we see multiple days where showers and storms train over a particular geographic region. Right now, the greatest risk is focused north and west of the Twin Cities stretching towards Duluth, with increased emphasis on the upper St. Croix river valley regions as well as the Mississippi headwaters. We highly recommend keeping an eye on area rain totals and checking water.noaa.gov if you live close to a river or stream that has a tendency to flood.
The unsettled pattern continues with little change in the upper levels through the end of the week, with the main change as we progress being slightly cooler days mid to late week which should help keep stronger thunderstorm chances at bay due to less instability to work with. Be sure to check out the hydro discussion issued yesterday as well as any further updates as we keep a close eye on flooding potential over the coming days.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
Issued at 639 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

Initial batch of widespread rain continues to lift northeast of the Minnesota terminals. Radar trends support the theme of redevelopment across southern Minnesota, as captured on the latest hi-res model data. Additional showers and thunderstorms are most likely at RWF, MKT, STC, MSP, and RNH. Appears AXN may be too far NW for potential thunder and storms may weaken to general -RA/SHRA by the time they reach EAU late tonight.
Ceilings lower to MVFR/IFR overnight and then improve to VFR as the system departs early Sunday. Southeast winds turn more southerly overnight, eventually southwesterly into Sunday morning.

KMSP...Expect off and on showers to continue into this evening, with the chance for a storm or two. Better chances for thunder will be later on tonight, between roughly 05-09z. Ceilings lower to MVFR overnight and then improve to VFR Sunday. Winds turn southwesterly Sunday morning, with gusts up to 20 knots.
Likely 200-220 direction late morning into the afternoon sets up for a crosswind on 12R/30L.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ MON...VFR, likely MVFR/IFR/TSRA PM. Wind SE 10-15kt.
TUE...VFR, likely MVFR/IFR/TSRA PM. Wind S 10-15G25-30kts.
WED...VFR/MVFR/-SHRA, chc -TSRA PM. Wind N 5-10kts.

HYDROLOGY
Issued at 315 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024

The extended period of heavy rainfall brings with it a potential return to river flooding in the 5-10 day period, extending to the end of the month on the mainstems. HEFS graphics show the potential threat nicely, and also show the degree of uncertainty with large ranges even within the blue "most likely" band by day 10.
Factors that will determine flood severity (minor vs. moderate or worse) include how fast the rain falls...a number of 6-12 hour periods with less than an inch adding up to 3-5 inches is better than a couple of 2-3 inch events in a short period. We will also need to be wary of a boundary setting up with training storms moving from southwest to northeast over the same area.
In summary, this scenario bears watching closely over the next week, with lots of uncertainty along the way.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 7 PM CDT Sunday for Anoka-Carver- Dakota-Hennepin-Ramsey-Scott-Washington.
Excessive Heat Watch Sunday evening for Anoka-Carver-Dakota- Hennepin-Ramsey-Scott-Washington.
WI...None.




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