Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Falcon Heights, MN

DISCUSSION
Issued at 353 PM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

A broad 1014mb low associated with a weakening occluded front stretches from north-central Minnesota into the northwestern majority of Wisconsin. Scattered thunderstorms will continue within the cyclonic flow where enough moisture is present. A number of these storms have exhibited at least somewhat organized updrafts, producing hail just under or near the size of a quarter. Latest mesoanalysis as of 3:30pm shows about 1000 J/kg of CAPE and mid- level lapse rates around 6C/km. The main limiting factor for severe weather this afternoon is the low-end 20 to 30 kts of effective bulk shear up in our area. Better shear is further into central and southern Wisconsin, which is why the Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been limited to that region. We may see additional showers or weak storms advect south from northern Minnesota later this evening, but the trend has favored most places remaining dry after these storms push east across Wisconsin.

The mid-level trough shifts east tomorrow, resulting in a quiet weather day for most of the Upper MS Valley with partly cloudy skies and highs in the mid 70s. Widespread storm chances do not increase until Saturday night as a warm front approaches from the south, increasing moisture transport while the LLJ strengthens. Depending on the evolution of the upper trough and associated warm front, the severe weather risk for hail and wind may need to be expanded east into portions of southwestern Minnesota.

Not much has changed in regards to the long term outlook. A major pattern change remains on deck with persistent southwest flow setting up by late Sunday. This will be our first real threat for extreme heat as thermal ridging builds over much of the region. Temperatures around +26 to +32C at 925 hPa combined with dewpoints in the 60s and 70s throughout the week would push heat indices into the low to mid 100s. It is very likely we will need to increase dangerous heat messaging heading into next week, especially on Monday where WBGT are forecasted to reach the mid 80s at many locations. The other factor to keep in mind with heat risk is the amount of relief you are able to get overnight. Lows each day next week look very similar to what our highs have been this week. Phew. As I type that out, I think that is the best way to put into perspective just how warm we are expected to get. The main limiting factor to temperatures would be any overnight or early morning convection, which could drastically lower any heat risk on a given day. That will be the main thing to watch as we head into next week.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
Issued at 1242 AM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

IFR stratus across northeast MN and northwest WI is expanding southwest and should reach TAF sites along I-94 during the next several hours. The stratus will lift and scatter out mid to late morning.

KMSP...Time of arrival tool suggests IFR cigs will arrive around or just after 09Z on its current heading. The deck will lift mid morning and scatter out late morning.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ FRI...VFR. Wind SE 5-10 kts.
SAT...VFR. Wind SE 10-15G25 kts.
SUN...VFR. Wind SSE 10-15G30 kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...None.
WI...None.