Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Falcon Heights, MN

DISCUSSION
Issued at 231 PM CDT Fri May 8 2026

Surface analysis this afternoon shows a southward-sagging cold front over the international border with a weak north-south oriented trough over the MN/Dakota border. In advance of both features, while temperatures have risen to the mid 60s to lower 70s, dewpoints have cratered into the 20s. In some cases, dewpoint depressions have climbed as much as 50 degrees, making for exceptionally dry air across the entire WFO MPX coverage area, particularly western MN. Combined with breezy/gusty NW winds, Red Flag Conditions are certainly being realized, with care being taken by burning officials to ensure any burning activities are contained and/or cancelled. The Red Flag Warning continues through late this afternoon as it will not be until this evening when conditions are no longer critical. However, as the evening progresses, the front to the north and the trough to the west will enter out coverage area and in conjunction move across our area overnight. There looks to be sufficient moisture aloft with these synoptic features to produce scattered rain showers during the overnight hours. However, considering the dry air up to around 10 kft that must be overcome, rainfall totals at best will only be a few hundredths of an inch.

The next impact from the frontal passage will be an appreciable drop in temperatures for the weekend as a modified cold Canadian high pressure airmass will follow the cold front southeastward. High pressure will enter the Lower 48 over the Northern Plains on Saturday, eventually becoming centered over the Great Lakes Sunday night through Monday morning. While skies will run mostly clear through the weekend, the ample sunshine will not overcome the lower level cold air advection as highs over the weekend will remain in the 50s/60s with lows in the 30s Sunday morning (areas of frost likely, mainly north of I-94)
and Monday morning (widespread frost likely across nearly the entire coverage area).

On the western fringes of this high pressure airmass is a clipper-type low pressure system dropping southward along the Canadian Rockies through the weekend, moving through the Northern Plains Monday-Tuesday. This system looks to finally break our extended dry period with widespread rain late Monday night through Tuesday morning. QPF isn't impressive by any means, but there are still some model guidance members which produce around a quarter inch of rain for eastern portions of our coverage area. At this point, any rain is quite welcome. The next potential chance for rain comes Thursday as another organized low pressure system looks to move into the Upper Midwest, but the more important aspect is this system will help turn our temperatures around for the latter half of next week.
Western ridging behind this synoptic system will spread east into the central CONUS late next week, allowing highs to punch upwards into the 70s and 80s.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
Issued at 627 PM CDT Fri May 8 2026

Main question for wave now moving into northeast NoDak is whether or not we'll be able to overcome the very dry low levels of the atmosphere left over from this afternoon to get rain to the ground. We have enough hi-res models producing rain across central MN overnight to move the prob30s up to TEMPOs for STC and AXN. Left prob30s going for MSP/RNH/EAU as this area of rain looks to be falling apart as it moves east, roughly down I-94.
With this I-94 expectation, did remove any rain mention from RWF and MKT. Cigs look to remain VFR, though should drop to 4k to 6k feet for a couple of hours after the rain threat. For Saturday afternoon, skies will clear out and the gusty northwest winds will return as we once again see very deep mixing.

KMSP...10z to 13z looks to be the -shra window for MSP. An MVFR vis looks possible with this shra threat, but otherwise, the main impact from this rain would be wet runways, with not lightning expected.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ SUN...VFR. Wind NW 10-20 kts.
MON...VFR. Wind SE 5-10 kts.
TUE...VFR, chc -TSRA/MVFR early. Wind NW 15-20G30 kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for Benton- Chippewa-Douglas-Kanabec-Kandiyohi-Lac Qui Parle-Mille Lacs-Morrison-Pope-Sherburne-Stearns-Stevens-Swift-Todd.
WI...None.