Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Falcon Heights, MN

DISCUSSION
Issued at 216 PM CST Fri Dec 12 2025

The primary feature of the weather today has been an arctic front passing through Minnesota and soon Wisconsin. Ahead of this front there was an area of wintry mix with small snow grains and freezing drizzle. This was all due to dry air leading to a loss of cloud ice. This brought down snow amounts and produced the patchy drizzle we saw today. Behind the front strong cold air advection has lead to colder temperatures and increased winds. For areas with a blowable snowpack this produced periods of visibility under a half mile at times. This has been most notable along front as the most blowable snow does become depleted as the crystals fracture. A more narrow area of blowing snow will be expected this evening as the front passes through eastern Minnesota and western Wisconsin.

Tonight through the weekend will be dominated by continuous cold air advection along northwest flow. The main precipitation feature will be a clipper tracking across South Dakota into Iowa. Parts of southwest and south central Minnesota could see some snow as the clipper passes to our south, but overall impacts look to remain south of us. For most of us the main impact will be the cold. Tonight will be the more classic wind chill setup with tomorrow night more of a cold alone setup. Both nights will see wind chills getting down as low as 35 below zero, but there will be more wind tonight and less wind on tomorrow night. Tomorrow night will see colder air with some temperatures getting down around 20 below zero. Forecast confidence is fairly high both in the track of the clipper to our south and the cold air advection bringing down temperatures well below zero.

Daytime Sunday is when the pattern begins to shift. Winds aloft start to shift and the cold air advection comes to an end.
Sunday will not be warm, but it will be the end of getting colder. This warmer air will advect in through the middle of the week before our next system and chance of precipitation arrives. This will bring highs Monday up around freezing and highs Tuesday/Wednesday above freezing. This will be the first day above freezing since November 25 for the Twin Cities/St Cloud and November 26 for Eau Claire. So it has been weeks since we have seen above freezing temperatures.

Cooler air returns Thursday behind our next system which looks most likely Wednesday PM into Thursday. A shortwave will travel through the Upper Midwest/Southern Canada or possibly right along the international border. The depth and exact track of this low will be key for impacts for us. If it is deep enough or south enough, we would see impacts. With the temperature gradient from the north of this wave to the south of it, forcing due to frontogenesis would be plentiful. We will need to see where ensemble systems trend as we get closer before we can have PoPs higher than the 30s the NBM currently has.The cooler air behind this system looks to bring in a period of more seasonable temperatures to end the week.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
Issued at 1054 PM CST Fri Dec 12 2025

Generally tranquil conditions are expected over the next 24 hours with a cold front shifting well east of the area, resulting in a scouring out of low level clouds and leaving mainly high stratus in its wake. A weak post-frontal trough moving SSE from South Dakota across IA into IL tomorrow will produce a swath of snow close enough to RWF-MKT to warrant a PROB30 mention for mid-to-late Saturday morning. Otherwise, breezy/gusty NW winds at initialization will diminish to around 10kts and remain close to there for the rest of this TAF period.

KMSP...VFR conditions expected throughout this duration with just high stratus ceilings in place. NW winds to continue throughout this duration, with fairly steady speeds as this TAF period progresses. No precipitation expected for this duration.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ SUN...VFR. Wind W early, bcmg S 5-10kts.
MON...VFR. Wind S early, bcmg WNW 10-15kts.
TUE...VFR. Wind SW 10-15G20kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM CST Sunday for Anoka-Benton- Blue Earth-Carver-Chippewa-Chisago-Dakota-Douglas- Freeborn-Goodhue-Hennepin-Isanti-Kanabec-Kandiyohi-Le Sueur-McLeod-Meeker-Mille Lacs-Morrison-Nicollet-Pope- Ramsey-Renville-Rice-Scott-Sherburne-Sibley-Stearns- Steele-Stevens-Swift-Todd-Waseca-Washington-Wright.
Cold Weather Advisory from 6 PM Saturday to 10 AM CST Sunday for Brown-Faribault-Lac Qui Parle-Martin-Redwood-Watonwan- Yellow Medicine.
WI...Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM CST Sunday for Barron- Chippewa-Dunn-Eau Claire-Pepin-Pierce-Polk-Rusk-St. Croix.