Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Falcon Heights, MN

DISCUSSION
Issued at 301 AM CDT Wed May 21 2025

The radar has slowly filled back in this morning as echoes had backed off during the evening as our upper level low continues to churn over the region, centered over western Minnesota with the surface low over southern Lake Michigan per the latest surface analysis. Differential water vapor RGB on GOES-East shows a bit of dry air entering the circulation from the south, with the greatest moisture contained within the eastern edge of the upper level low over Western WI and eastern MN where the showers have returned.
Widespread showers are expected to continue for most of today diminishing gradually into the afternoon and evening as the upper level occlusion weakens as the front edge of a southern stream ridge forces a positive tilt, alongside the surface low migrating towards Lake Erie by 06z Thursday. The last of the light showers will be over shortly afterwards, with dry conditions beginning Thursday and lasting through at least Saturday as skies also clear up allowing for the sun to return. By 12z Friday upper level flow will have turned northwesterly as the apex of the western ridge is over the Dakotas, with wide scale subsidence allowing for clear skies and cool temperatures which looks to linger through the weekend.

A few ensemble members want to bring some isolated showers to the area on Saturday and Sunday primarily due to a mid level shortwave and weak surface low as the upper level ridge sags southwards into the central plains. The deterministic GFS is the main outlier in bringing wetter conditions to primarily the southern half of Minnesota on Sunday as it produces a robust shortwave across the area, while the other deterministic global guidance remains muted and dry as surface high pressure keeps showers from forming. The overall ensemble picture produces more of a dry than a wet signal, which was reflected in the NBM as POPs were kept in the slight chance to chance categories. Given the weak subsidence signal and westerly to northwesterly flow aloft, we should strike a balance between warming but also remaining below normal, with highs for the day ultimately dependent on how much cloud cover or showery weather forms. The pattern into the middle of the week continues to favor northerly flow aloft and weak surface high pressure over the region, contributing to an overall drier signal aside from potential weak showers due to shorter range or smaller scale features.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
Issued at 1216 AM CDT Wed May 21 2025

IFR/LIFR conditions expected area-wide through at least Wednesday morning as cigs under 1000 feet, mist, and rain showers persist. Current radar shows rain showers filling in again across eastern MN and WI. This trend should continue through Wednesday morning with a gradual expansion of rain westward late morning into the afternoon along a northwest to southeast stationary front. Rain should then dissipate from north to south during Wednesday evening. Expect visibilities to hang somewhere between 3-5sm from mist and showers. Also, not optimistic about cigs and cloud cover improving quickly. Kept most terminals south of AXN, STC, and RNH only improving to MVFR by the end of the TAF period. East-northeasterly winds of 7-10 knots expected at most terminals through Wednesday afternoon before shifting northerly and slowing. However, RWF and MKT will be south of the stationary front and their winds will be northwesterly during Wednesday.

KMSP...Showers and IFR cigs look likely until Wednesday evening before cigs begin to lift and rain tapers off. Thinking improvement to MVFR occurs around 03Z Thursday and then VFR by 06Z as clouds lift and break apart. East-northeasterly winds of 7-10 knots expected into Wednesday afternoon before winds gradually turn northerly and slow to near 5 knots.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ THU...VFR. Wind N 10-15kts.
FRI...VFR. Wind NE 5-10kts.
SAT...VFR. Wind E 5-10kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...None.
WI...None.