Tuesday, December10, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Champlain, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:18AMSunset 4:14PM Tuesday December 10, 2019 8:10 PM EST (01:10 UTC) Moonrise 4:26PMMoonset 6:24AM Illumination 99% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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SLZ024 Expires:201912102215;;149894 Fzus61 Kbuf 101743 Glfsl Forecast For The Saint Lawrence River Including The Thousand Islands Region National Weather Service Buffalo Ny 1243 Pm Est Tue Dec 10 2019 Slz022-024-102215- Saint Lawrence River From Cape Vincent To Saint Regis 1243 Pm Est Tue Dec 10 2019
This afternoon..West winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. Cloudy.
Tonight..West winds 5 to 15 knots diminishing to less than 10 knots. Mostly cloudy.
Wednesday..South winds 5 to 15 knots becoming west 15 to 20 knots. Lake effect snow showers.
Wednesday night..West winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 5 to 15 knots. Mostly cloudy in the evening, then becoming partly cloudy.
Thursday..Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming south 15 to 20 knots. Partly cloudy, then becoming mostly cloudy.
Friday..South winds 15 to 20 knots becoming southeast 5 to 15 knots. A chance of rain showers Friday night.
Saturday..East winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southwest. Rain showers likely during the day, then rain and snow showers likely Saturday night.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Champlain, NY
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location: 44.97, -73.44     debug


Area Discussion for - Burlington, VT
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FXUS61 KBTV 102351 AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 651 PM EST Tue Dec 10 2019

SYNOPSIS. A cold front crossing the North Country this evening will result in rapidly falling temperatures. As temperatures plummet below freezing, any standing water or slush will rapidly freeze, and a few icy spots are possible tonight and into the morning commute on Wednesday. High temperatures on Wednesday will generally be in the 20s to near 30. Another trough approaching from the Great Lakes will bring the potential for additional snow showers during Wednesday afternoon. The next chance for widespread precipitation will occur Saturday, with moderate rain generally expected across the North Country.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/. As of 553 PM EST Tuesday . Overall in forecast in good shape with only some minor tweaks. Pronounced southwest flow aloft over the region is helping to keep plenty of clouds and some rain around. Rain is mainly south of Montpelier, Vermont and with plenty of rain moving up from the mid-Atlantic region have held onto the rain a bit longer in southern Vermont. The cold front associated with colder air is slowly moving into the Saint Lawrence Valley and portions of the northern Adirondacks. Because of the slower timing of the colder air have adjusted hourly temperatures and dew points to account for the slower drop. Still looking at the potential for some black ice as the lower dew points remain west of the Saint Lawrence River Valley. Rest of forecast in real good shape and no other changes needed at this time.

Previous Discussion . Slow-moving deep-layer frontal zone continues to bring light rain across central/s-central VT this afternoon. A shallow/secondary cold front shifting into the St. Lawrence Valley will sweep eastward this evening. This secondary front will come through generally dry, but strong low-level CAA is expected, along with a W-NW wind shift. Briefly gusty winds of 20-30 mph are possible through this evening with good low-level mixing. As temperatures fall, the main concern is a rapid refreeze of any slush or standing water from today's snowmelt. Some surfaces will sufficiently dry out first, but patchy black ice may occur on untreated surfaces that are initially wet through this evening. Have issued a Special Weather Statement to address for this evening into the overnight hours. Temperatures by daybreak expected to fall into the teens, except locally in the lower 20s across the valleys of s-central VT.

On Wednesday, narrow surface ridge axis brings dry/partly sunny conditions during the morning hours. This ridge axis shifts out quickly as next shortwave approaches from the Great Lakes region. Flow quickly shifts back swly by afternoon, and lake enhanced snow showers will begin developing across St. Lawrence and Franklin counties by 18Z. Have a period of 70-80 PoPs across the Adirondacks mid-late afternoon, with chances for late afternoon and evening snow showers elsewhere as trough axis shifts across the region. Snow accumulations of 1-3" are possible from swrn St. Lawrence County into the Adirondacks, with generally an inch or less elsewhere across the North Country. Wednesday's highs generally 25-30F.

Wednesday night will feature brisk conditions early, with NWLY gusts 25-35 mph possible in the wake of the surface trough passage. Clearing skies and diminishing winds after midnight should allow temperatures to fall into the low-mid teens, except locally in the single digits across the Adirondacks and far nern VT.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/. As of 329 PM EST Tuesday . No real changes for Thursday through Friday night with high pressure in control of the sensible weather across the North Country. Below normal temperatures are expected on Thursday as Canadian high briefly settles in. Breezy winds Thursday morning will diminish towards afternoon and although it'll be chilly, a dry airmass will be in place allowing for plenty of sunshine during the day. High temperatures should generally be around 20 for the Northeast Kingdom and higher terrain of the Adirondack and Green Mountains, and low to mid 20s elsewhere. High pressure will begin to slide eastward Thursday night as winds aloft turn out of the southwest ahead of our next approaching system for Saturday. Temperatures on Friday will moderate to near seasonable norms in the low to mid 30s. Despite warming temperatures it will still feel chilly Friday as southerly winds increase around 10-15 knots with gusts upwards of 20 knots at times during the afternoon. Warm air advection will continue overnight Friday with low temperatures generally remaining steady in the low to mid 30s.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. As of 329 PM EST Tuesday . The main story for the extended will be the "nor'easter" for Saturday. Overall, model guidance is in relatively good agreement on the evolution of this system however there are some differences on upper level structure and placement of the surface low with slight variations on the timing/placement of phasing shortwaves aloft. There is still plenty of time to hammer out the details on this system, especially in regard to placement of heaviest QPF. One thing of note, while highest PWATs remain well to our south and east, sounding climatology for ALY at 12z Dec 14 show PWATs around 1" near the daily maximums for the day. Currently, guidance indicates around 0.75" across northern New York and northwestern Vermont with amounts increasing to around 1.50" across southeastern Vermont.

Unfortunately, one trend which has been covered well by all guidance is the likelihood that this event will be primarily rain, expect for maybe the highest peaks. At this time, have run with rain/snow based on surface temperatures due to strength of warm nose aloft, however there is the potential for pockets of freezing rain for the deeper hollows across eastern Vermont and the Connecticut River Valley at the onset of precipitation early Saturday morning. Soundings indicate the best potential at typical location such as Springfield & St. Johnsbury. Additionally, we will be watching the potential for gusty east-southeasterly downsloping winds late Saturday morning as soundings indicate 40-45 knot low level jet developing around 925- 900 mb. Soundings indicate a stable layer in place as this coincides with precipitation, but given dry slot development across this location Saturday afternoon a few locations could see brief gusts up to 30 kt. Colder air finally works its way in the region Sunday afternoon with some lingering snow showers.

The pattern for active weather continues with another deepening system developing across the Central Plains poised to impact the region by early next week with uncertainty regarding where the low will track.

AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. Through 00Z Thursday . Expect widespread MVFR to VFR ceilings across the area through 04z before slowly becoming VFR between 06z and 12z. A few showers will be possible for KRUT through 03z with dry weather expected for all areas between 03z and 18z. Snow showers are expected to develop over northern New York and western Vermont after 18z and this could result in MVFR visibilities. Otherwise looking at VFR visibilities for much of the period. A cold front will be moving across the area and winds have become northwest at KMSS already and the rest of the area will see northwest winds developing through 06z. Eventually the winds will turn back to the south and southwest after 12z with most locations seeing winds under 10 knots . but there could be gusts as high as 20 knots across portions of northern New York.

Outlook .

Wednesday Night: VFR. Windy with gusts to 30 kt. Chance SHSN. Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Friday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance RA, Slight chance SN. Friday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Likely RA, Chance SN. Saturday: Mainly IFR, with areas MVFR possible. Definite RA. Saturday Night: Mainly IFR, with areas MVFR possible. Likely RA. Sunday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Likely SHRA, Likely SHSN.

MARINE. A Lake Wind Advisory continues into tonight. A cold front crossing the North Country will maintain good low-level mixing, with westerly winds 20-30 kts for a time this evening. Should see winds trend downward to 10-15 kts after midnight. Waves initially 2 to 4 feet should subside to 1 to 2 feet after midnight.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. VT . None. NY . None.

SYNOPSIS . Banacos NEAR TERM . Evenson/Banacos SHORT TERM . LaRocca LONG TERM . LaRocca AVIATION . Evenson MARINE . Hastings


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Franklin County State Airport, VT18 mi15 minNW 310.00 miOvercast32°F23°F71%1015.6 hPa
Plattsburgh International Airport , NY22 mi18 minNNE 104.00 miLight Snow32°F24°F73%1015.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KFSO

Wind History from FSO (wind in knots)
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Tide / Current Tables for Sorel, Quebec
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Sorel
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Tue -- 05:26 AM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 06:28 AM EST     0.95 meters High Tide
Tue -- 07:23 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:04 AM EST     0.94 meters Low Tide
Tue -- 02:31 PM EST     0.97 meters High Tide
Tue -- 03:21 PM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 04:06 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 07:29 PM EST     0.96 meters Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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Tide / Current Tables for Islets Perces, Quebec
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Islets Perces
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Tue -- 03:21 AM EST     0.99 meters High Tide
Tue -- 05:25 AM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 07:22 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:48 AM EST     0.96 meters Low Tide
Tue -- 02:52 PM EST     0.98 meters High Tide
Tue -- 03:20 PM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 04:05 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 09:43 PM EST     0.94 meters Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Burlington, VT (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Burlington, VT
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.