Friday, August23, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Crystal Downs Country Club, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:02AMSunset 7:44PM Friday August 23, 2019 7:33 PM CDT (00:33 UTC) Moonrise 11:46PMMoonset 1:53PM Illumination 40% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 23 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ364 Expires:201908240315;;097101 Fzus63 Kmkx 231943 Glflm Open Lake Forecast For Lake Michigan National Weather Service Milwaukee/sullivan Wi 243 Pm Cdt Fri Aug 23 2019 For Waters Beyond Five Nautical Miles Of Shore On Lake Michigan. Waves Are Provided As A Range Of Significant Wave Heights, Which Is The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave, Along With The Average Height Of The Highest 10% Of The Waves Which Will Occasionally Be Encountered.
Synopsis.. High pressure of 30.3 inches in southern ontario will slowly slide eastward into the weekend, reaching maine by Sunday morning at 30.4 inches. North to northeast winds will become easterly Saturday, with a southeast component by Sunday as the high moves on. Winds will be breezy at times through Sunday. Southeast winds and waves will pick up Monday between an approaching low and the departing high. A windy period also appears on tap toward the middle of next week with gusty westerly winds possibly approaching gales. Lmz261-362-364-366-563-565-567-868-240315- lake michigan from seul choix point to rock island passage 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan south of a line from seul choix point to the mackinac bridge and north of a line from charlevoix mi to south fox island 5 nm offshore- lake michigan from charlevoix to point betsie mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from point betsie to manistee mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from rock island passage to sturgeon bay wi- lake michigan from sturgeon bay to two rivers wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from two rivers to sheboygan wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from pentwater to manistee mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- 243 pm cdt Fri aug 23 2019 sheboygan wi to pentwater mi north...
Tonight..North winds 10 to 20 kt becoming east. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
Saturday..Southeast winds 10 to 20 kt becoming northeast. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
Saturday night..Northeast winds 10 to 15 kt veering to southeast 10 to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
Sunday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 kt increasing to 15 to 25 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
Sunday night..Southeast winds 15 to 25 kt diminishing to 10 to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 3 ft building to 2 to 4 ft.
Monday..Southeast winds 10 to 20 kt becoming south 15 to 25 kt. Waves 3 to 5 ft.
Monday night..South winds to 30 kt. Showers likely. Waves 3 to 5 ft.
Tuesday..West winds 15 to 25 kt. Waves 3 to 5 ft.
Wednesday..West winds 15 to 25 kt increasing to 30 kt. Waves 3 to 5 ft.
LMZ364


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Crystal Downs Country Club, MI
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location: 44.97, -86.48     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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Fxus63 kapx 232300
afdapx
area forecast discussion
national weather service gaylord mi
700 pm edt Fri aug 23 2019

Near term (through tonight)
issued at 242 pm edt Fri aug 23 2019

Fog tonight, probably not frost...

high impact weather potential... Areas of fog will be an issue for
the morning. Very patchy frost is possible.

Pattern synopsis forecast... High pressure has settled in over the
upper great lakes. This will lead to calm winds, overnight, and
clear skies. The problem then becomes whether there will be frost
or fog. While locations could see frost, as some temperatures
begin to fall into the mid 30s, more likely, with the dewpoints in
the mid 40s to around 50, during the heat of the day, it is more
likely that we will get radiation fog, which doesn't lend itself
to helping us to get frost.

Primary forecast concerns... Have been contemplating this since
doing the aviation forecasts earlier this afternoon. Looking at
the model certainty procedure for low temperatures tonight, our
lows, were around the lower 10% of the forecast, with the median
around 42f over the region. The colder locations east of i-75,
could see a touch of frost if, and it's a big if, fog doesn't
form. However, if the winds drop off and the sky clears, then with
the crossover temperatures (ups fog method) up where they are,
then when we get to lower 40s for low temperatures will expect
that areas of fog will develop overnight. However, if the fog idea
is wrong, then frost does become a possibility with our colder
spots seeing temperatures close to freezing.

Short term (Saturday through Monday)
issued at 242 pm edt Fri aug 23 2019

Quiet weekend before inbound cold front early next week...

high impact weather potential: none.

Sharp 500mb ridge axis will be overhead Sat night. Associated
surface high pressure will be to the east, over new england, but
with ridging extending back into northern mi. That will keep return
flow relatively weak and dry, at least initially. The pressure
gradient does eventually tighten, between the departing high, and an
incoming cold front that reaches the upper ms valley Monday
afternoon. Warm moist advection, when combined with falling heights
aloft, will result in precip chances returning on Monday.

Saturday into Sunday night continues to look very quiet, and ideal
for a range of outdoor activities. Our airmass is less cool and
relatively drier on Saturday, with building mid-level heights. Do
not expect as much diurnal CU Saturday, though there will still be
some, especially in NE lower mi. Even less CU will be seen Sunday,
with a warming and not yet moistening airmass. MAX temps low-mid 70s
Saturday, 75-80f Sunday. Min temps still cool Sat night, mainly 40s
to around 50f. Milder Sun night, 50s to around 60f.

Initial height falls start to kick in Monday. Models have trended a
little faster with potential precip onset Monday, in particular
lifting a southern stream shortwave into the southern lakes a bit
quicker. The ECMWF does not actually quite spit out QPF here Monday,
but does so downstate. Though continue to favor a touch of slowing
compared to blended model guidance, the idea of some showers
sneaking in during the day (especially in the afternoon) remains
reasonable. Should still be enough heating to warm temps nicely
despite increasing clouds, with highs in the upper 70s to around 80f.

Long term (Monday night through Friday)
issued at 242 pm edt Fri aug 23 2019
cold frontal passage still appears most likely early Tuesday, with
showers likely Monday night. The parent forcing shortwave is taking
on a neutral or even negative tilt, ahead of a deepening upper low
over S central canada. This may will to generate or maintain
instability more than one might expect, given the unfavorable time
of day of fropa. So perhaps a thunder mention is not entirely
unreasonable. Also at least some potential for decent rainfall
totals in spots, not unwelcome given the month has been dry. Monday
night, pre-fropa, looks rather mild.

The upper low translates eastward before ejecting northward, so
heights don't crash particularly low in the northern lakes. Highs
looks to be mainly in the 70s, perhaps easing back into the upper
60s in some spots late in the week. The occasional shortwave may
also pose a small risk for showers, mainly in the Wed thru fri
timeframe.

Aviation (for the 00z tafs through 00z Saturday evening)
issued at 700 pm edt Fri aug 23 2019
cool canadian high pressure will hold over the upper mississippi
valley and the great lakes region thru the weekend... Maintain dry
weather and mainly clear skies. Areas of fog will develop
overnight into early Saturday morning... Dropping vsbys to ifr at
times. Otherwise...VFR conditions this evening and most of
Saturday after the early morning fog quickly dissipates as
daytime mixing begins. Light calm winds tonight into early
Saturday will become N NE at around 10 kts on Saturday.

Marine
Issued at 242 pm edt Fri aug 23 2019
tonight through Sunday... High pressure remains over the region
through Saturday night bringing light winds over the region
through Sunday morning.

As the high moves off to the east, Sunday, the pressure gradient
will tighten up, and winds will increase. Small craft criteria
winds will be possible by Sunday afternoon and early evening.

Apx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lh... None.

Lm... None.

Ls... None.

Near term... Jl
short term... Jz
long term... Jz
aviation... Mr
marine... Jl


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
45002 - N MICHIGAN- Halfway between North Manitou and Washington Islands. 26 mi33 min NNE 5.8 G 9.7 66°F 1024.8 hPa (+0.0)50°F
45183 34 mi33 min NNE 9.7 G 12 67°F 68°F1025.8 hPa
NPDW3 - Northport Pier at Death's Door WI 34 mi53 min ENE 1.9 G 1.9 68°F 1024.4 hPa
FPTM4 - Fairport, MI 46 mi53 min WNW 1.9 G 4.1 66°F 1024.7 hPa

Wind History for Menominee, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Frankfort, Frankfort Dow Memorial Field Airport, MI28 mi45 minN 310.00 miFair69°F46°F45%1024.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KFKS

Wind History from FKS (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalm--Calm--CalmCalm--CalmCalmCalmCalmSE3NE4N6N7N9N9N6N6
G15
N7N5N3N3
1 day agoNE4N4N4----CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW5N7N7N8N6N9
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2 days agoCalm------------CalmCalmCalmCalm--CalmW4N7N7NW10
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NW6NW6N7W4CalmN5

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.