Thursday, October22, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Crystal Downs Country Club, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:13AMSunset 5:56PM Thursday October 22, 2020 6:46 PM CDT (23:46 UTC) Moonrise 1:58PMMoonset 10:43PM Illumination 36% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ364 Expires:202010230330;;674878 Fzus63 Kmkx 222002 Glflm Open Lake Forecast For Lake Michigan National Weather Service Milwaukee/sullivan Wi 302 Pm Cdt Thu Oct 22 2020 For Waters Beyond Five Nautical Miles Of Shore On Lake Michigan. Waves Are Provided As A Range Of Significant Wave Heights, Which Is The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave, Along With The Average Height Of The Highest 10% Of The Waves Which Will Occasionally Be Encountered.
Synopsis.. Breezy southerly winds are developing across southern portions of the lake this afternoon as a warm frontal boundary lifts north into the area, while gusty east-northeasterly winds continue for the northern portions this evening. Could see a few gusts nearing gales across northern portions of the lake through the evening. Patchy fog will also be possible across the open waters at times through Friday morning. Then the warm front will gradually lift north this evening, before a low pressure around 29.7 inches tracks up through the central plains into wi and over north- central lake michigan tonight. Gusty north to northwesterly winds will develop in the wake of the cold front across the whole lake on Friday. Then high pressure will build into the upper midwest for Saturday. && lmz261-362-364-366-563-565-567-868-230330- lake michigan from seul choix point to rock island passage 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan south of a line from seul choix point to the mackinac bridge and north of a line from charlevoix mi to south fox island 5 nm offshore- lake michigan from charlevoix to point betsie mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from point betsie to manistee mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from rock island passage to sturgeon bay wi- lake michigan from sturgeon bay to two rivers wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from two rivers to sheboygan wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from pentwater to manistee mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- 302 pm cdt Thu oct 22 2020 sheboygan wi to pentwater mi north...
Tonight..East winds to 30 kt becoming north. Patchy fog. Rain showers with a chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 7 to 10 ft occasionally to 13 ft.
Friday..North winds to 30 kt. Patchy fog in the morning. Rain showers likely in the morning, then chance of rain showers in the afternoon. Waves 8 to 11 ft occasionally to 14 ft.
Friday night..North winds to 30 kt becoming northwest 10 to 20 kt. Waves 7 to 10 ft occasionally to 13 ft subsiding to 4 to 6 ft occasionally to 8 ft.
Saturday..Northwest winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 3 to 5 ft subsiding to 1 to 3 ft.
Saturday night..North winds 10 to 15 kt becoming northeast. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Sunday..East winds 10 to 15 kt. Rain likely in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Sunday night..Northeast winds 10 to 15 kt becoming north 10 to 20 kt. Rain likely. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
Monday..Northwest winds 10 to 20 kt. Chance of rain. Waves 2 to 4 ft.
Tuesday..West winds 10 to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft building to 2 to 4 ft.
LMZ364


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Crystal Downs Country Club, MI
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location: 44.97, -86.48     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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FXUS63 KAPX 222323 AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 723 PM EDT Thu Oct 22 2020

NEAR TERM. (Through Friday) Issued at 405 PM EDT Thu Oct 22 2020

. Rain, at times heavy, through Friday .

High impact weather potential: Locally heavy rain leading to ponding of water in poor drainage areas. A few non-severe thunderstorms.

Pattern synopsis/forecast:

Rapidly tightening thermal gradient found across the western Great Lakes early this afternoon as deep and moist warm air advection spreads north ahead of approaching northern Plains shortwave trough. Weak surface low developing across southwest Iowa/northwest Missouri, with its attendant warm front stretching northeast across southern lower Michigan. Intense right entrance region upper jet dynamics enticing quite the low level jet response, with 50+ knot H8 level jet punching northeast into central Wisconsin. Forced mass/moisture convergence on the nose of this low level jet and growing frontogenetical response . both overtopped by that bullseye of upper level divergence, helping drive an expanding area of showers with embedded thunderstorms into the western Great Lakes . including much of northern Michigan.

Core of upper level divergence slowly slides east tonight, with focused fgen response doing the same. Weak low pressure pivots northeast along this tightening baroclinic axis, cutting across our area during the early morning hours. Combination of all the above within impressive deep layer moisture surge is setting the stage for a rather wet period of weather over the next 24 hours.

Primary forecast concerns/challenges: Addressing rainfall totals and potential flooding concerns.

Details:

Expect shower coverage to only increase with time the remainder of this afternoon into tonight as earlier mentioned forcing spreads overhead. Fgen response, while narrow, will be impressive, with warm side enhanced lift working on a moisture rich airmass featuring precipitable water values exceeding 1.25 inches (over 2 standard deviations above normal for this time of year). Corridor of elevated cape within the primary fgen response will only aid in updraft potential. Expect rain to come down heavy at times this evening into the early overnight when juxtaposition of all the above is maximized. Addressing the corridor of heavier rain remains a more formidable forecast challenge. Recent guidance trends, supported by real-time observations, has displaced the axis of heaviest rains a bit further north than earlier anticipated, cutting across the Tip of the Mitt into eastern upper Michigan. Could easily see rain totals in excess of 1.50 inches in this corridor, with localized amounts over 2 inches where thunderstorms occur. Not enough to pull the trigger on any type of flood headlines, but definitely could see some ponding on roadways and in areas of poor drainage (with the latter exacerbated by ongoing leaf fall). Expect rain amounts to steadily decline the further south one goes, with areas down near Saginaw Bay likely seeing little rainfall overnight after passage of surface warm front.

Low pressure passes quickly off to our east early Friday, dragging its attendant cold front west to east across the northern Lakes. Upper and mid level support will be much slower to depart with mid level impulse and those upper level jet dynamics spreading overhead. These will continue to activate trailing elevated front, keeping fairly widespread showers across much of the area, especially through the early afternoon hours. While heaviest rains will have departed, could easily see some places receive another half inch or so, especially where some elevated thunderstorms occur.

As for temperatures, a definite non-diurnal curve expected through the near term . with temperatures increasing tonight into early Friday (hitting the 60s across our southeast counties), with readings steadily dropping as we head through Friday.

SHORT TERM. (Friday night through Sunday) Issued at 405 PM EDT Thu Oct 22 2020

. Chilly with Lake Effect then Rain/Snow .

High impact weather potential: Low.

Primary forecast concerns/challenges: Pops and precipitation type.

Colder air will continue to advect into the region Friday night and hold across the region through the period. It will be plenty cold enough for lake effect precipitation with lake/850 mb delta ts of around 20. However, there are a few factors to take into account on the negative side. Surface high pressure and associated drier air build in from the west late Friday night into Saturday. North northwest winds back into the northwest but decrease to under 10 knots by early Saturday. So do expect at least scattered precipitation in the form of rain near the lakeshores and snow farther inland Friday night (with perhaps a thin coating of snow in a few areas) which should trend down to isolated coverage Saturday due to the lighter wind regime. Perhaps a few leftover isolated rain or snow showers Saturday night. A decent short wave moving through the flow is then expected to bring widespread precipitation to the region on Sunday, especially in the afternoon. Looking at model soundings, it's looking like mainly snow in the higher terrain of northern lower and inland areas of eastern upper with rain near the lakeshores. Therefore, will trend the forecast in this direction. Am not expecting much in the way of accumulation Sunday as temperatures should remain above freezing. Temperatures will be several degrees below normal (especially during the day). Forecast lows are in the mid 20s to mid 30s and highs in the upper 30s to mid 40s.

LONG TERM. (Sunday night through Thursday) Issued at 405 PM EDT Thu Oct 22 2020

High Impact Weather Potential: Minimal. P-type issues at times.

Cool and unsettled weather pattern looks to set up across the Great Lakes for the first half of next week . leading to below normal temps and potential for p-type issues at times. Strong mid to upper level ridging in the Gulf of Alaska hangs out through the period . allowing for troughing to set up across the west central US A bit of a split flow looks to ensue over the US. with a closed low developing over the western US and slowly meandering eastward through the period In the meantime. a few shortwaves speeding through the northern portion of the flow could give us a few shots at precipitation chances . and reinforce the cooler air over the region . especially as troughing slowly moves to the east. Uncertainty in the evolution of the aforementioned closed low will lead to uncertainty in downstream effects over the Great Lakes going into midweek next week.

AVIATION. (For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening) Issued at 723 PM EDT Thu Oct 22 2020

Strong low pressure will lift NE out of the Mid Mississippi Valley this evening and thru Lower Michigan overnight into Friday. Widespread showers and embedded thunderstorms will continue to impact Northern Lower Michigan tonight ahead of this system . with widespread showers continuing thru Friday immediately behind the low center as it departs into SE Ontario and Quebec. Overall conditions will remain IFR/low MVFR thru the 24 hour TAF forecast period. LLWS will continue to impact our area thru much of tonight. Easterly surface winds at 10 to 20 kts with higher gusts will become southerly overnight and then N/NW on Friday and strengthen to 15 to 25 kts with higher gusts as CAA kicks in behind the low center.

MARINE. Issued at 405 PM EDT Thu Oct 22 2020

Period of gusty winds across the Great Lakes tonight and Friday as low pressure slides up and across the area. Strongest winds will be on Friday as post-system cold air advection develops in northwest flow regime. Widespread small craft conditions likely, with even the threat for a few isolated gales on northern Lake Michigan and along the northeast lower coastline Friday. Winds steadily subside Friday night on into the start of the weekend. Widespread showers with a few embedded thunderstorms expected tonight into Friday. Sharply cooler weather for the weekend.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . NONE. LH . SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 11 PM EDT Friday for LHZ345>349. LM . SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 11 PM EDT Friday for LMZ323-341-342- 344>346. LS . SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 11 PM EDT Friday for LSZ321-322.

NEAR TERM . mb SHORT TERM . AS LONG TERM . FEF AVIATION . MR MARINE . mb


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
45002 - N MICHIGAN- Halfway between North Manitou and Washington Islands. 26 mi26 min E 23 G 31 47°F 54°F1017.2 hPa46°F
FPTM4 - Fairport, MI 46 mi66 min ENE 11 G 20 40°F 1019 hPa
CBRW3 - Chambers Island, WI 49 mi66 min N 19 G 29 44°F

Wind History for Menominee, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Frankfort, Frankfort Dow Memorial Field Airport, MI28 mi51 minNNE 5 G 1510.00 miOvercast46°F41°F87%1015.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KFKS

Wind History from FKS (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW4W5W4W5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE3E5E5E3E5NE4NE5NE6E10
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1 day agoE6E3SE6CalmCalmE3E5CalmCalmCalmCalmSW4W13
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2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE4E3E3SE3SE3SE5SE6E4SE6SE6SE8E5CalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.