Sunday, March29, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Crystal Downs Country Club, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:34AMSunset 7:15PM Sunday March 29, 2020 1:29 PM CDT (18:29 UTC) Moonrise 9:16AMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 31% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ364 Expires:202003292115;;254550 Fzus63 Kmkx 291359 Glflm Open Lake Forecast For Lake Michigan National Weather Service Milwaukee/sullivan Wi 859 Am Cdt Sun Mar 29 2020 For Waters Beyond Five Nautical Miles Of Shore On Lake Michigan. Waves Are Provided As A Range Of Significant Wave Heights, Which Is The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave, Along With The Average Height Of The Highest 10% Of The Waves Which Will Occasionally Be Encountered.
Synopsis.. Low pressure of 29.2 inches over west central wisconsin will move northeast over the upper peninsula of michigan by this evening. This will result in southwest winds across much of lake michigan today, shifting to the west, northwest this evening. Gales are expected over the southern half through this evening. Northwest winds are expected overnight tonight and Monday, with wind speeds diminishing as high pressure moves into the area. Dense fog over the central and northern half of the lake will continue through midday before clearing from south to north early this afternoon as the winds shift to the southwest. && lmz261-362-364-366-563-565-292115- lake michigan from seul choix point to rock island passage 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan south of a line from seul choix point to the mackinac bridge and north of a line from charlevoix mi to south fox island 5 nm offshore- lake michigan from charlevoix to point betsie mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from point betsie to manistee mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from rock island passage to sturgeon bay wi- lake michigan from sturgeon bay to two rivers wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- 859 am cdt Sun mar 29 2020 two rivers wi to manistee mi north...
.dense fog advisory in effect until 1 pm cdt this afternoon...
Rest of today..Southeast winds to 30 kt veering to southwest. Areas of dense fog through mid morning, then patchy fog this afternoon. Chance of rain through mid morning, then chance of rain showers this afternoon. Waves 4 to 7 ft occasionally to 9 ft.
Tonight..West winds to 30 kt becoming northwest. Areas of fog. Chance of rain showers. Waves 5 to 8 ft occasionally to 10 ft.
Monday..North gales to 35 kt diminishing to 30 kt. Waves 6 to 9 ft occasionally to 12 ft.
Monday night..North winds to 30 kt diminishing to 10 to 20 kt overnight. Waves 4 to 7 ft occasionally to 9 ft subsiding to 3 to 5 ft.
Tuesday..North winds 10 to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
Tuesday night..Northeast winds 10 to 20 kt diminishing to 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
Wednesday..Northeast winds 5 to 10 kt becoming north. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Thursday..East winds 5 to 10 kt veering to west. Chance of rain. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
LMZ364


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Crystal Downs Country Club, MI
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location: 44.97, -86.48     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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FXUS63 KAPX 291558 AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 1158 AM EDT Sun Mar 29 2020

UPDATE. Issued at 1157 AM EDT Sun Mar 29 2020

15Z composite analysis reveals stacked low pressure system over Green Bay. Attending occluded boundary arcs across the tip of the mitt to a triple point near Saginaw Bay and cold front that continues down through eastern Ohio. Associated rainfall ahead of the front has exited to the north and east before wrapping back westward to around the Duluth/western U.P. area. A second area of more widespread precip is rotating/sliding across eastern Wisconsin under the upper low/short-wave center with shower activity now materializing across NW Lower Michigan ahead of the upper low.

Rest of the day: No big surprises/changes to the going forecast. Stacked low will track across the tip of the mitt/Straits region as the short-wave circulation tracks through northern Lower Michigan. Shower coverage will continue to increase across the region as a result, especially after adding a little sunshine/ modest destabilization under the upper low to the mix.

Otherwise, temperatures will top out in the early afternoon before starting to trail back down with cooler air/showers.

NEAR TERM. (Today through Tonight) Issued at 325 AM EDT Sun Mar 29 2020

. Wet weather continues .

High impact weather potential: Minimal.

Pattern synopsis/forecast: All eyes directed at deep and mature low pressure making steady northeast progress across Iowa early this morning. Warm front extends east from this low, just now entering southwest lower Michigan, with a trailing cold front extending just a bit further southwest. Deep layer moisture advection spurred along by 50+ knot low level jet driving band of showers, some at times rather heavy, across northern Michigan this past evening and early overnight. Even experiencing a few isolated thunderstorms, but so far these have largely behaved (just enhancing rain rates). Mid level dry tongue rotating around this low already punching into Wisconsin and northern Illinois . set to spread across much of northern lower Michigan a bit later this morning. A relatively mild night, with current readings ranging from the upper 30s to upper 40s.

Low pressure will gradually fill/weaken as it further occludes on its journey across northern Michigan today, further weakening as it reaches southeast Ontario by Monday morning. While main moist/warm conveyor belt will quickly push off to our east this morning, plenty of "wrap around" moisture, cyclonic flow, and weak waves traversing around parent system will keep the threat for additional showers right through tonight.

Primary forecast concerns/challenges: Temporal and spatial resolution of light showers. Addressing potential for these showers to mix with or change to snow tonight.

Details: While heaviest showers will quickly exit east this morning as upstream dry slot moves across, expect additional lighter showers to overspread the region today as low pressure cuts across upper Michigan. Most persistent showers expected across northwest lower and eastern upper Michigan where low level convergence is maximized. Showers continue into tonight, become more scattered with time as moisture depth decreases and main dynamics push further off to our east. Despite impressive look of low pressure, system has no direct connection to any real cold air (removed from northern stream flow), with only weak cold air advection expected to kick in later today and tonight. Surface based melting layer remains substantial until perhaps later this evening, keeping showers of the liquid variety. May see showers mix with, or even change over, to snow (especially across the higher interior areas) later this evening/overnight, but with little, if any, accumulation. Additional rainfall amounts through tonight will mostly remain under a quarter of an inch. A mild day today, with temperatures spiking into the 50s across a good portion of northern lower Michigan by early this afternoon, with readings just a bit cooler near Lake Michigan and across eastern upper. Temperatures begin to slowly fall during the afternoon as that weak cold air advection commences. Clouds and gusty northwest winds tonight will keep temperatures from falling too much, only reaching the lower and middle 30s by sunrise Monday.

SHORT TERM. (Monday through Tuesday) Issued at 325 AM EDT Sun Mar 29 2020

. A Cool Start to the Week .

High Impact Weather Potential . There could be a mix of rain and snow or all snow, Monday morning, especially in the highlands. Possibly making a slippery morning commute.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast . Monday morning, the snow or rain/snow mix, depending on where you are will continue, but should begin to diminish as we head into the day. The temperatures are expected to warm into the mid 30s by 14z/Mon taking the precipitation back toward all rain, before ending by the afternoon. Some of the models, especially the CAMs are beginning to show something akin to LES in the afternoon, but that seems unlikely, as the water temperatures are around 1 to 3 C and the 850 mb temperatures are around -4 or -5C. We should be in subsidence, so would expect that some drizzle down stream would be possible, but the overall idea expected would be drying. The models do have some spokes of energy rotating around the 500 mb low back into the Upper Great Lakes on Tuesday. However, Tuesday night the 500 mb low is backing into the Upper Great Lakes, but this sharpens the shortwave ridging upstream in Wisconsin, so the models dry things out. Will have to watch this closer, but think that it will remain dry.

Primary Forecast Concerns . Again, looking at the soil temperatures, the ground cools back to 32F, so there could be slippery spots with any snow that falls in the interior of N Lower, and some places in E Upper.

Winds should begin to diminish sometime Monday afternoon.

LONG TERM. (Tuesday night through Saturday) Issued at 325 AM EDT Sun Mar 29 2020

High Impact Weather Potential . Thunder Saturday?

Extended (Wednesday through Saturday) . The models threw a curve at us this morning. As mentioned in the previous section, the 500 mb low near New England, began to back into the Upper Great Lakes Tuesday, but by Wednesday morning, it was moving east again, while the 500 mb west in the Canadian Rockies stalls. This allows the ridge between them so amplify, into what is looking like an Omega block. The National Blend of Models looks like it is a little slow to catch onto this, so have lowered the pops for Thursday through early Saturday as the front is slow to move into the Upper Great Lakes. Saturday itself looks like a cold front would move through the region and bringing showers, and maybe some thunder. Based on tonight's performance of the thunder, I'll wait until things either look good or we actually have some thunder.

If the ridge builds, then I think the temperatures are also suspect, and too low. If the models are right, and the cloud cover is the same on Thursday and Friday, we could be warmer than 50 over the forecast area.

AVIATION. (For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning) Issued at 737 AM EDT Sun Mar 29 2020

At least some minor improvement expected across the taf sites this morning as dry slot pivots overhead. Cigs crash again later this morning and afternoon/evening to MVFR and IFR with the return of deeper moisture. Showers will accompany this moisture, becoming fairly widespread again this afternoon and evening. IFR conditions look to continue much of the overnight.

MARINE. Issued at 325 AM EDT Sun Mar 29 2020

Southeast winds swing around to southwest today as low pressure moves across upper Michigan. Wind gusts will be maximized across portions of Lake Michigan and Lake Huron, where small craft conditions will continue. Winds become northwest and remain a bit gusty across all the big waters tonight into Monday before becoming more northerly and subsiding Monday night. Additional showers expected today and tonight, with conditions gradually drying out Monday.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . LAKESHORE FLOOD ADVISORY until noon EDT today for MIZ088-096-097. LH . SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until noon EDT today for LHZ345>347. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until midnight EDT tonight for LHZ348-349. LM . SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 6 PM EDT Monday for LMZ323-341-342- 344>346. LS . SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until noon EDT today for LSZ322. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 6 PM EDT Monday for LSZ321.

UPDATE . BA NEAR TERM . mb SHORT TERM . JL LONG TERM . JL AVIATION . mb MARINE . mb


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NPDW3 - Northport Pier at Death's Door WI 34 mi50 min ESE 6 G 7 40°F 993.9 hPa
FPTM4 - Fairport, MI 46 mi50 min SSE 5.1 G 11 38°F 994.2 hPa

Wind History for Menominee, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Frankfort, Frankfort Dow Memorial Field Airport, MI28 mi35 minS 13 G 2210.00 miLight Rain41°F39°F92%996.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KFKS

Wind History from FKS (wind in knots)
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1 day agoNW10N8N5N5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE5CalmE5E3CalmE8NE3CalmE4NE5NE7E8E8
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2 days agoN4N7N4CalmNE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE3E3CalmSE5E3SE4E4SE5E4CalmNW6NW6

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

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Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.