Saturday, December7, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Crystal Downs Country Club, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:10AMSunset 4:14PM Saturday December 7, 2019 5:58 AM CST (11:58 UTC) Moonrise 3:00PMMoonset 3:06AM Illumination 80% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ364 Expires:201912071630;;978865 Fzus63 Kmkx 070858 Glflm Open Lake Forecast For Lake Michigan National Weather Service Milwaukee/sullivan Wi 258 Am Cst Sat Dec 7 2019 For Waters Beyond Five Nautical Miles Of Shore On Lake Michigan. Waves Are Provided As A Range Of Significant Wave Heights, Which Is The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave, Along With The Average Height Of The Highest 10% Of The Waves Which Will Occasionally Be Encountered.
Synopsis.. High pressure of 30.4 inches will continue to pull away to the east today. South to southwest winds will increase today as the high departs. Low pressure will deepen as it moves east across southern canada, lowering to 29.1 inches as it moves across hudson bay tonight. Winds will continue to increase as a result, with gale force winds expected later this evening into Sunday afternoon. Gusty west to northwest winds are likely later Monday into Tuesday as low pressure tracks from illinois into lower michigan, then into canada. A much colder airmass will follow which will lead to freezing spray at times through mid-week. && lmz261-362-364-366-563-565-567-868-071630- lake michigan from seul choix point to rock island passage 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan south of a line from seul choix point to the mackinac bridge and north of a line from charlevoix mi to south fox island 5 nm offshore- lake michigan from charlevoix to point betsie mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from point betsie to manistee mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from rock island passage to sturgeon bay wi- lake michigan from sturgeon bay to two rivers wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from two rivers to sheboygan wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from pentwater to manistee mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- 258 am cst Sat dec 7 2019 sheboygan wi to pentwater mi north...
.gale warning in effect from this evening through Sunday afternoon...
Today..Southwest winds 10 to 20 kt increasing to 15 to 25 kt. Chance of rain and snow this morning. Waves 3 to 5 ft building to 5 to 8 ft occasionally to 10 ft.
Tonight..South gales to 35 kt becoming southwest gales to 45 kt. Waves 5 to 8 ft occasionally to 10 ft building to 12 to 16 ft occasionally to 21 ft.
Sunday..Southwest gales to 45 kt diminishing to 30 kt. Waves 12 to 16 ft occasionally to 21 ft subsiding to 6 to 9 ft occasionally to 12 ft.
Sunday night..West winds 10 to 20 kt veering to north. Chance of rain in the evening, then chance of rain and light freezing rain overnight. Waves 4 to 7 ft occasionally to 9 ft subsiding to 2 to 4 ft.
Monday..Northeast winds 10 to 20 kt becoming north 15 to 25 kt. Rain with a chance of snow in the morning, then snow and rain in the afternoon. Waves 3 to 5 ft building to 4 to 6 ft occasionally to 8 ft.
Monday night..North winds to 30 kt becoming northwest. Snow likely. Waves 5 to 8 ft occasionally to 10 ft.
Tuesday..Northwest winds 15 to 25 kt diminishing to 10 to 20 kt. Chance of snow. Waves 4 to 7 ft occasionally to 9 ft.
Wednesday..Northwest winds 15 to 25 kt. Freezing spray. Chance of snow. Waves 4 to 6 ft occasionally to 8 ft.
LMZ364


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Crystal Downs Country Club, MI
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location: 44.97, -86.48     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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FXUS63 KAPX 071140 AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 640 AM EST Sat Dec 7 2019

NEAR TERM. (Today through Tonight) Issued at 232 AM EST Sat Dec 7 2019

. Temperatures inching upward .

High impact weather potential: Gusty southwest winds tonight to bring gales to much of northern Lake Michigan as well as more lakeshore flooding concerns along the Mackinac county coast on Lake Michigan.

Pattern synopsis/forecast: Well, at least for a little bit longer, progressive flow regime found across central NOAM . made that way by dual upper jet cores . one running along the U.S./Canadian border with the other stretching all the way from Hawaii to the Gulf Coast States. Split flow regime also noted at the mid-levels, with our area located under the confluence axis of departing northern stream troughing and ridging building through the Intermountain West. Weak warm air advection tied to just as weak mid level impulse within the northern branch is kicking off a some light snow showers across the northwest Lakes at this early hour. Otherwise a mostly cloudy and seasonably chilly night across the Northwoods, with current readings falling through the lower and middle 20s across much of the area.

Progressive pattern set to continue through the remainder of this weekend. Warm air advection regime will ramp up considerably, especially tonight, with deepening southwest flow behind departing surface high and overspreading of low amplitude mid level ridging.

Primary forecast concerns/challenges: Temperature trends and addressing some light rain/snow potential.

Details: Passing of that weak upstream wave should be enough to kick off at least a few snow showers, especially this morning. Most "concentrated" area of snow showers expected across the Tip of the Mitt counties up through the Straits with a marginally favorable over-water thermal gradient within southwest flow regime. Not a big deal for sure, with most areas seeing less than an inch of snow (much less than an inch for most).

Southwest flow ramps up considerably going through tonight as area becomes centered between departing surface high and approach of developing upstream cold front. Strongest forced ascent on nose of low level jet expected to remain off to our north, although southern extent of this enhanced convergence/moisture pooling may just clip eastern upper Michigan . bringing the threat for a few light snow showers. Mostly cloudy but dry otherwise. Those increasingly gusty southwest winds will definitely keep temperatures warmer than this past night, with readings steady state or even slowly rising after midnight. Of course, those winds will definitely make it feel several degrees colder.

SHORT TERM. (Sunday through Monday) Issued at 232 AM EST Sat Dec 7 2019

High Impact Weather Potential: Moderate

. Strong winter storm with gusty winds, rain and snow .

Synopsis/Forecast: Southwesterly winds and WAA will be continue Sunday morning ahead of an approaching cold front. A 45-55 kt LLJ and gusty southwesterly surface winds will continue to surge above- freezing air northward over our region. Even with PWATs above 0.5" (+1 S.D) we may have trouble squeezing rain out of the air mass in nrn lower through the morning hours. We'll be within a psuedo-warm sector with some semblance of a warm frontal boundary to our north. Better low-mid level moisture resides north of this boundary (colocated with better dynamics). However, as we progress into the afternoon a narrow corridor of moisture arrives ahead of the cold front, increasing precip chances. We'll stay with rain for nrn lower as profiles are above freezing for the lowest 2 kft or so. As noted by the previous shift, the higher terrain nrn lower and perhaps ern upper may struggle to changeover to pure rain for very long, given a more shallow surface-based warm layer there. Through the evening snow gets mixed back in with the loss of any little diurnal heating. The cold front looks to pass through ern upper before midnight, before quickly pushing south across nrn lower in the wee hours of Monday morning.

Also during Sunday night, an upper level wave dives southeast into the central Plains, spinning up a surface low near Kansas. This low rides up along the existing cold front through the nrn Ohio Valley Monday morning. For our area this translates to a shift in winds to more northeasterly and a brief resurgence of warmer air between Alpena and Saginaw Bay. In the afternoon forecast soundings have max omega pegged squarely over a 4 kft DGZ. This will be good for a few inches in ern upper. Nrn lower may have less accumulation through the early evening thanks to an isothermal layer near zero for the lowest 2 to 3 kft, allowing some rain to remain mixed in. Low level CAA behind the cold front gets better across nrn lower during the evening, bringing all snow for the entire area. Guidance doesn't intensify the low until Monday night, as it crosses into southeastern Ontario. This is thanks to a favorable exit region within an intensifying upper level jet stretching from the southern Plains through the southern Ohio Valley. Winds back through the day, and become more gusty overnight as the low pulls off to the northeast.

Overall this system seems a little less impressive than previously thought, as guidance is weakening and shifting the low farther north. Snow totals between Sunday night and Monday night look to remain at 3 to 4 inches or less.

LONG TERM. (Monday night through Friday) Issued at 232 AM EST Sat Dec 7 2019

High Impact Weather: Lake effect likely Tuesday into Wednesday. Some potential for moderate amounts in typical northwest flow belts.

By Tuesday morning the surface low will be well off to our northeast with CAA continuing in its wake. 850mb temps drop from the low negative teens to start the day to near -20 C. Despite great overlake instability and inversion heights around 5 kft, lack of better synoptic moisture above the lake generated cloud layer may throttle back snow amounts. Still a decent set up for lake effect Tuesdsay into early Wednesday, just not not excited about huge amounts yet. Wednesday remains the coldest day next week as the core of Arctic air rotates over us. On Thursday high pressure slides just to our southeast, giving a break from snow chances, then Friday into next weekend another clipper system approaches the area.

AVIATION. (For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning) Issued at 638 AM EST Sat Dec 7 2019

Weak wave bringing some pockets of light snow and MVFR cigs this morning. Some improvement expected this afternoon as wave passes. VFR conditions expected overnight, although winds will be on the increase. Also expect potential for late night low level wind shear.

MARINE. Issued at 232 AM EST Sat Dec 7 2019

Southwest winds expected to steadily increase across the big waters today and tonight as pressure gradient ramps up between departing surface high and approaching cold front. Winds will become quite gusty tonight into at least the first half of Sunday, especially across northern Lake Michigan where gales are expected. Small craft advisories will be needed elsewhere, although will need to watch areas down near Saginaw Bay where enhanced channeling may tip the scales to gales. Winds expected to decrease for a time later Sunday into Sunday night as that upstream front centers overhead and slows down. More marine headlines anticipated at times heading into next work week with passing low pressure and the gradual development of strong cold air advection.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . LAKESHORE FLOOD ADVISORY from 9 PM this evening to 5 PM EST Sunday for MIZ095-096. LH . SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY from 4 PM this afternoon to 5 PM EST Sunday for LHZ345>349. LM . GALE WARNING from 9 PM this evening to 5 PM EST Sunday for LMZ323-341-342-344>346. LS . SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY from 7 PM this evening to 5 PM EST Sunday for LSZ321-322.

NEAR TERM . mb SHORT TERM . STJ LONG TERM . STJ AVIATION . mb MARINE . mb


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
FPTM4 - Fairport, MI 46 mi78 min Calm G 0 22°F 1025.4 hPa
CBRW3 - Chambers Island, WI 49 mi78 min S 6 G 9.9 27°F

Wind History for Menominee, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Frankfort, Frankfort Dow Memorial Field Airport, MI28 mi63 minESE 44.00 miLight Snow26°F22°F85%1026.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KFKS

Wind History from FKS (wind in knots)
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NW7NW8NW8NW3W4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE4E3E3
1 day agoNW10
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NW3N4CalmCalmCalmCalmSW4CalmCalmE4E4SE4SE4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN6N8
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (6,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.