Sunrise 5:55 AM   Sunset 7:42 PM Moonrise 4:31 PM   Moonset 4:43 AM

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LMZ364 Expires:202404201515;;058170 Fzus63 Kmkx 200735 Glflm
open lake forecast for lake michigan national weather service milwaukee/sullivan wi 235 am cdt Sat apr 20 2024
for waters beyond five nautical miles of shore on lake michigan.
waves are provided as a range of significant wave heights, which is the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave, along with the average height of the highest 10% of the waves which will occasionally be encountered.
Synopsis -
high pressure of 30.3 inches over the central us and deepening low pressure across northern quebec will maintain west winds over lake michigan today. Winds will gradually decrease in intensity through the day today, with lighter winds continuing into Sunday as high pressure approaches from the west. Light and variable winds will then occur with the passage of the high Sunday night. Breezy south winds will then develop for Monday into Tuesday as low pressure approaches the northern great lakes from canada. Winds could approach gale force during this time.
lmz261-362-364-366-563-565-567-868-201515- lake michigan from seul choix point to rock island passage 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan south of a line from seul choix point to the mackinac bridge and north of a line from charlevoix mi to south fox island 5 nm offshore- lake michigan from charlevoix to point betsie mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from point betsie to manistee mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from rock island passage to sturgeon bay wi- lake michigan from sturgeon bay to two rivers wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from two rivers to sheboygan wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from pentwater to manistee mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- 235 am cdt Sat apr 20 2024
sheboygan wi to pentwater mi north - .
Today - West winds 15 to 25 kt. Chance of sprinkles this afternoon. Waves 4 to 6 ft occasionally to 8 ft subsiding to 3 to 5 ft. Tonight - West winds 10 to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 4 ft. Sunday - West winds 10 to 20 kt increasing to 15 to 25 kt. Waves 3 to 5 ft. Sunday night - Northeast winds 10 to 20 kt veering to southeast 5 to 10 kt overnight. Waves 1 to 3 ft subsiding to 1 to 2 ft. Monday - South winds 10 to 15 kt increasing to 15 to 25 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 ft building to 3 to 5 ft. Monday night - South winds 15 to 25 kt increasing to 30 kt. Chance of rain showers. Waves 4 to 6 ft occasionally to 8 ft. Tuesday - South winds to 30 kt becoming west. Rain showers likely. Waves 4 to 7 ft occasionally to 9 ft. Wednesday - North winds to 30 kt diminishing to 15 to 25 kt. Waves 4 to 6 ft occasionally to 8 ft.

LMZ300
No data

FXUS63 KAPX 200714 AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 314 AM EDT Sat Apr 20 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Cool and breezy again today with scattered rain/snow showers.

- Breezy northwest winds expected Sunday.

- Rain showers Tuesday into early Wednesday along with breezy winds.

- Mild temperatures return late this upcoming week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Pattern Synopsis:

Troughing centered over the Great Lakes/southeast Canada will continue to pivot eastward today as the associated surface cyclone treks far to our northeast across Quebec. A second strong trough looks to dig south across Canada towards the region tonight.
Meanwhile, surface high pressure builds across the heart of the CONUS today, nosing into the region heading into Sunday.

Forecast Details:

Similar weather to yesterday is expected across northern Michigan again today. Persistent west-northwest winds on the backside of low pressure will remain breezy, gusting between 20-30 mph at times through the afternoon. Steep lapse rates and sufficient low-level moisture will remain in place to support isolated to scattered rain/snow showers this morning into this evening.
Light snow is mostly likely across the eastern U.P. and higher elevations of northern lower where temperatures look to stay close to freezing under falling precip. Very little to no accumulation is expected. Otherwise, clearing cloud cover is expected later today into tonight with overnight lows expected to drop well into the 20s for those away from the immediate lakeshore.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Pattern Synopsis and Forecast:

Upper low passes well to the north of the Canadian border Sunday resulting in a wind shift across northern Michigan and breezy conditions. Zonal flow aloft takes hold early this week in addition to a return to southwest sfc winds. Next trough and subsequent sfc low pressure system will swing through on Tuesday producing predominantly rain showers across the area and additional breezy winds. Heights aloft rise towards late week with warming temperatures and dry conditions.

Primary Forecast Concerns:

Energy will pass to the north of northern Michigan on Sunday resulting in a wind shift to the northwest and breezy conditions during the daytime hours. Boundary layer heights approach ~5-7K+ ft AGL and mix into 25 to 30 kts through the column, thus, a breezy day will be on tap for the region (gusts generally 25 to 35 mph). Based on recent past, these types of setups have resulted in quicker low level drying and thus lower relative humidities that modeled. Thus, blended in some NBM10th percentile. Interior and southeast portions of northern Michigan could see elevated fire weather conditions, thus outdoor burning will not be recommended.

Next piece of energy and low pressure system will approach the region Tuesday resulting in largely rain showers across the region.
Hints of a little instability possible in some of the guidance as the low pressure system tracks generally to the north of the area, so slight chance for a few thunder-storms/showers. Nevertheless, probs for 0.5" of precip are quite low on the GEPS/EPS for this event (leaning towards the upper level pattern evolution within this guidance) thus not too terribly impactful in regards to the heavy rain threat. Anticipate some breezy to windy conditions as well with this system mid week with temperatures in the 40s most locations Wednesday.

After a cooler mid week, temperatures rebound quite nicely to close out the work week. Heights aloft will begin to rise, thus fostering a quick rebound in temperatures (from the 40s Wednesday to the 50s and 60s Thursday and Friday). Expecting largely dry conditions during this time but more active weather is likely shortly thereafter.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
Deep troughing will remain over the Great Lakes region thru Saturday night...resulting in mainly cloudy skies but VFR cigs along with scattered light rain/snow showers. Surface winds will remain from the west at 10 to 20 kts overnight...
strengthening again to 15 to 25 kts on Saturday.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LHZ345>349.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for LMZ323- 341-342-344>346.
Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LSZ321.
Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening for LSZ322.

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Gaylord, MI,