Friday, September25, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Crystal Downs Country Club, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:40AMSunset 6:43PM Friday September 25, 2020 8:29 AM CDT (13:29 UTC) Moonrise 4:01PMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 58% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 8 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ364 Expires:202009251515;;328591 Fzus63 Kmkx 250740 Glflm Open Lake Forecast For Lake Michigan National Weather Service Milwaukee/sullivan Wi 240 Am Cdt Fri Sep 25 2020 For Waters Beyond Five Nautical Miles Of Shore On Lake Michigan. Waves Are Provided As A Range Of Significant Wave Heights, Which Is The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave, Along With The Average Height Of The Highest 10% Of The Waves Which Will Occasionally Be Encountered.
Synopsis.. A west to east frontal boundary will continue to lift north today through the northern reaches of the lake. Breezy south to southwest winds will then prevail today through Saturday night as a couple of low pressure areas move from the northern great plains through the lake superior region. The strongest winds will occur Saturday afternoon and night when winds may reach gale strength for a time in the far northern portion of the lake. The winds will then lessen and veer to westerly for Sunday with the passage of a cold front in the morning. && lmz261-362-364-366-563-565-251515- lake michigan from seul choix point to rock island passage 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan south of a line from seul choix point to the mackinac bridge and north of a line from charlevoix mi to south fox island 5 nm offshore- lake michigan from charlevoix to point betsie mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from point betsie to manistee mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from rock island passage to sturgeon bay wi- lake michigan from sturgeon bay to two rivers wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- 240 am cdt Fri sep 25 2020 two rivers wi to manistee mi north...
Today..South winds 10 to 15 kt increasing to 15 to 25 kt. Patchy fog this morning. Waves 1 to 3 ft building to 4 to 6 ft occasionally to 8 ft.
Tonight..South winds 15 to 25 kt becoming southwest to 30 kt. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 4 to 7 ft occasionally to 9 ft.
Saturday..Southwest winds 15 to 25 kt becoming south to 30 kt. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning. Waves 4 to 6 ft occasionally to 8 ft.
Saturday night..South gales to 35 kt becoming southwest. Chance of showers. Waves 6 to 9 ft occasionally to 12 ft.
Sunday..Southwest winds 15 to 25 kt. Waves 4 to 7 ft occasionally to 9 ft subsiding to 3 to 5 ft.
Sunday night..Southwest winds 15 to 25 kt becoming west 10 to 20 kt. Chance of showers. Waves 3 to 5 ft.
Monday..Northwest winds 10 to 15 kt. Chance of showers. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
Tuesday..Northwest winds 10 to 20 kt becoming west. Showers likely. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
LMZ364


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Crystal Downs Country Club, MI
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location: 44.97, -86.48     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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FXUS63 KAPX 251009 AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 609 AM EDT Fri Sep 25 2020

NEAR TERM. (Today through Tonight) Issued at 207 AM EDT Fri Sep 25 2020

Impactful weather: Minimal. Areas of dense fog across NE lower through daybreak. Chances for showers and thunderstorms return late tonight. Severe storms not expected.

Pattern synopsis and forecast:

One shortwave was off to the south of Michigan, while another was seen working into central Canada and the Dakotas. At the sfc, there is a weak sfc low sitting on top of a stalled out front that is still draped across nrn lower Michigan. This front extends back across WI/MN, and up through Manitoba as a warm front, and is tied to low pressure in nrn Saskatchewan. This low pressure has a cold front that drapes southward into the Dakotas, associated with a band of light rain showers. Here in nrn Michigan, very weak theta-e convergence over the top of the stalled out front has allowed some weak spits of light rain to develop over the last several hours. The BL is also quite moist, not only along/north of the stalled out front, but also to the south. Stratus and fog were common not only north of the front, but with radiational cooling and easterly flow off Lake Huron, stratus and fog were spreading westward toward NW lower.

Shallow mid level ridging will start working in over the region for the remainder of the overnight hours through the early afternoon. Low level BL winds are already turning out of the south, which will shove the stalled out front, north as a warm front. The front will be well north of us by the end of this morning. This will help shove the stratus and fog out of the area over the next several hours. Skies will eventually clear out through the day, especially in nrn lower. The low pressure in nrn Saskatchewan works it's way eastward through today and tonight, and the aforementioned cold front starts making it's way across the upper Mississippi valley today, before laying over into Ontario, eastern Lake Superior, and WI by daybreak Saturday. Most all of the forcing from DPVA, upper divergence from a little jet support, and especially the theta-e convergence, are going to be to our north. Not sold on a really great chance for convection here, but gotta have at least a chance of showers, and even mention the shot at a non-severe thunderstorm or two, with several hundred j/kg MUCAPE as the front arrives, right on the leading edge of a steep lapse rate plume.

Highs today will be in the upper 60s to lower 70s in eastern upper, where southerly winds are coming in off the Lakes. Readings in nrn lower will be quite warm, in the middle 70s to around 80F in spots. Lows tonight will be rather mild in the stronger southerly winds, in the upper 50s to lower 60s most areas.

SHORT TERM. (Saturday through Sunday) Issued at 207 AM EDT Fri Sep 25 2020

High Impact Weather . Heavy rainfall possible Saturday night, breezy at times weekend with the potential for high swim risk conditions.

Active weather this weekend. Cold front approaches the Great Lakes from the west Saturday and then kinda lays out across the northern part of the CWA Saturday night. Cold front moves through Sunday.

Ahead of the front decent moisture with dewpoints in the 60s and PWATS above 1.25" over the area Saturday. Approach of LF quad of 130kt jet late Saturday and 60kt 850mb jet from the west should enhance lift nearby the boundary. Position of the jet and boundary should bring the best chance for precipitation north. Instability hard to find ahead of the front but very good shear with 40kts of 6km Bulk Shear possible Saturday afternoon and evening. Strength of the lift and LLJ angle of into the boundary should be enough to get convection. Any convective elements that do get going could be slow- moving/back-building possibly leading to heavy rainfall amounts Saturday night.

Strong LLJ overhead on Saturday and possibility of very good mixing should lead to increasing winds along the Lake Michigan shoreline once again Saturday afternoon/evening.

Front blows through Sunday morning but lingering low level moisture around through the day could bring an afternoon shower or two.

LONG TERM. (Sunday night through Thursday) Issued at 207 AM EDT Fri Sep 25 2020

. Lots of shower chances and turning much colder .

Secondary cold front moves through Monday. Deepening trough in the center part of the country helps a strong wave develop on the front over the SE U.S. and sends it north into the eastern Great Lakes. Exact track of the low will change between now and then but it could bring more rain and windy conditions for the early part of the work week. In any case, deep trough moves into the Great Lakes Tuesday with a closed low developing over Ontario. This low will rotate much colder air into the area with high temperatures possibly struggling to reach 50F by Wednesday and Thursday. The cold air and position of the trough will bring lake effect/instability clouds and showers, and breezy conditions leading to a not very nice spell of weather for the region mid to late next week.

AVIATION. (For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning) Issued at 609 AM EDT Fri Sep 25 2020

A frontal boundary draped across northern lower Michigan will lift north as a warm front this morning, while deep low pressure in nrn Canada will drag a cold front into nrn Michigan late tonight and Saturday. There's still some IFR CIGS from stratus, and some IFR/MVFR VSBYS due to fog at APN attm, but that will be lifting north in the next couple of hours. Skies are expected to clear to scattered VFR cumulus this afternoon, with VFR conditions continuing tonight with just some increase in VFR clouds ahead of the front.

Winds will become a little gusty out of the SW this afternoon in a tightening pressure gradient, and may remain gusty at times tonight. Finally, there is also a chance of showers late tonight into Saturday.

MARINE. Issued at 207 AM EDT Fri Sep 25 2020

A frontal boundary draped across northern lower Michigan will lift north as a warm front this morning, while deep low pressure in nrn Canada will drag a cold front into nrn Michigan late tonight and Saturday. Skies are expected to clear up through today, and winds will reach advisory levels this afternoon and tonight out of the SW, in a tightening pressure gradient ahead of the front. This will be for Lake Michigan and Whitefish Bay. There is also a chance for some showers with this front late tonight through Saturday, while winds die down a bit. Then, an area of low pressure advances into the region Saturday night. This ramps winds back up again and brings a better shot at showers and potential storms. More advisories expected, despite some overlake stability, maybe some gales.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . NONE. LH . SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY from 2 PM this afternoon to 5 AM EDT Saturday for LHZ348. LM . SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY from 8 PM this evening to 8 AM EDT Saturday for LMZ323-342. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY from noon today to 8 AM EDT Saturday for LMZ341-344>346. LS . SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY from 2 PM this afternoon to 5 AM EDT Saturday for LSZ321.

NEAR TERM . SMD SHORT TERM . KF LONG TERM . KF AVIATION . SMD MARINE . SMD


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
45002 - N MICHIGAN- Halfway between North Manitou and Washington Islands. 26 mi40 min SSW 12 G 14 62°F 60°F1 ft1013.1 hPa
45183 34 mi30 min SSW 12 G 14 64°F 61°F1 ft
FPTM4 - Fairport, MI 46 mi50 min S 9.9 G 12 60°F 1012.5 hPa
CBRW3 - Chambers Island, WI 49 mi50 min SSE 6 G 8.9 63°F

Wind History for Menominee, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Frankfort, Frankfort Dow Memorial Field Airport, MI28 mi35 minSSE 310.00 miMostly Cloudy66°F57°F73%1014.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KFKS

Wind History from FKS (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE3S3S6W3W3W5W9W7CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS4S8SE4CalmSE3S5
1 day agoW3CalmW6W5W8W7W6W4CalmCalmSW5SW5SW5SW4SW3CalmS4CalmS3CalmW4N3CalmCalm
2 days agoSW5CalmSW7SW6SW9SW8SW6S7S5SW4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.