Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Dallas, OR

SHORT TERM
Now through Monday night...North to northwest onshore flow expected to continue in the low levels with southwest flow in the upper levels expected through Monday.
Heights aloft rebound today in the wake of a weak upper level disturbance, exiting to the northeast. The HRRR ensemble mean continues to depict cloud cover backbuilding off the Cascades and into the Willamette Valley and Portland metro. Broken cloud cover is also expected along the coast but has been more scattered. Despite morning clouds, afternoon highs are expected to reach a few degrees higher than Saturday with a trend toward clearing skies in the afternoon. Interior lowlands can expect upper 70s to low 80s while the coastal areas see the 60s.

Not expecting nearly as much cloud cover to develop tonight into Monday morning due to the weakening pressure gradient and therefore, weaker onshore flow. Could still see some low level clouds along the coast lingering into Monday morning. Upper level heights will continue to increase on Monday as the 500 mb pattern amplifies over over the CONUS. A large ridge of high pressure centered over the northern Plains will persist while a short wave drops southward along the western periphery of the ridge, off the western Canada coast and toward he PacNW. Lack of morning cloud cover and the amplifying pattern will support increasing afternoon temperatures on Monday, jumping into the mid to upper 80s across the interior lowlands and mid 60s to low 70s along the coast.

It is also worth noting the potential for hazy skies in the Cascades of eastern Lane County during the afternoon/evening hours on sunday and Monday due to smoke coming from a wildfire burning in northwest Jackson County between Wimer, OR and Shady Grove, OR. The RRFS smoke model backs up this expectation, with vertically integrated smoke values increasing to near 100 mg/m^2 near the Cascade crest.
Fortunately, smoke aloft is not expected to mix down to the surface in eastern Lane County. -19/23

LONG TERM
Tuesday through Friday night...The warm conditions are expected to persist into Tuesday as the upper level ridge remains in control over the area. Highs in the upper 80s to low 90s are expected across the interior lowlands and mid 60s to low 70s along the coast. A weak disturbance is expected to pass over central Oregon and could support showers or thunderstorms along the Cascade crest during the afternoon. Probabilities at this time are around 15-30% along the Lane and Linn county Cascades.

The pattern continues to show a decent amount of uncertainty heading into Wednesday and the remainder of the week with temperature and precipitation discrepancies at the forefront. Ensembles continue to struggle with a closed low that is expected to develop somewhere off the southern coast of British Columbia and into the PacNW. Development farther north around vancouver Island will support another day of warm temperatures in the 80s while a more southern development off the Oregon coast would lead to temperatures likely in the upper 70s to low 80s, At this point, ensembles favor the farther north development with 70-80% of ECMWF members and ~60% of GFS members. NBM spread between the 10th-90th percentiles has decreed from around 20 degrees to 15 degrees, ranging from the upper 70s to low 90s now. There also remains a low (10-20%) chance for showers across the area Wednesday afternoon and evening. Confidence increases for dry weather on Friday, however the temperature forecast remains uncertain with the NBM 10th-90th percentile for highs ranging from the lower 80s to upper 90s for inland valleys. -19

AVIATION
Stratus continues to backbuild off the Cascades and into the Willamette Valley and Portland metro with cloud cover around 3-4 kft. Low end VFR CIGs could briefly drop down to MVFR though chances are only 20-40% for any given interior location.
Conditions along the coast are also mixed with a bit of stratus developing around KONP and KTMK while KAST remains SKC. Pockets of cloud cover expected to continue before clearing late morning.
Northwest winds increase late morning to around 10 kts with isolated gusts to 20 kt, better chances along the coast.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...Low end VFR CIGs as stratus builds in from the east. Low chance for MVFR CIGs around 20-30% through 15Z.
Northwest winds increase to around 10 kt with isolated gusts 15-20 kt possible during the afternoon. -19

MARINE
North to northwest flow expected to persist today and into next week. A thermal trough develops this afternoon, tightening the pressure gradient along the coast and strengthening winds. Winds will increase over the central water first, then gradually increase northward as the thermal trough strengthens. Small Craft Advisory (SCA) winds are expected with sustained winds of 15-20 kt and gusts to 25 kt. Winds will ease below SCA thresholds Monday morning. Seas increase to 6-7 feet at 8-9 seconds this evening but quickly fall back to around 5-6 feet by Monday morning. Conditions the rest of the work week are expected to be benign. -19

PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...None.

WA...None.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 2 AM PDT Monday for PZZ251-271.

Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 11 AM PDT Monday for PZZ252-253-272-273.