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PZZ252 Coastal Waters From Cape Falcon To Cape Foulweather Or Out 10 Nm- 209 Pm Pdt Wed Oct 4 2023
.small craft advisory in effect through Thursday evening...
Tonight..N wind 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Wind waves N 4 ft at 6 seconds. SWell nw 6 ft at 11 seconds.
Thu..N wind 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Wind waves N 3 ft at 5 seconds. SWell nw 7 ft at 12 seconds.
Thu night..N wind 20 to 25 kt, becoming ne 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt after midnight. Wind waves N 3 ft at 5 seconds. SWell nw 4 ft at 12 seconds.
Fri..NE wind 10 kt with gusts to 15 kt. Wind waves ne 2 ft at 4 seconds. SWell nw 4 ft at 11 seconds.
Fri night..E wind 5 to 10 kt. Gusts to 15 kt early in the evening. Wind waves E 2 ft at 4 seconds. SWell W 3 ft at 11 seconds.
Sat..SE wind 5 to 10 kt, becoming S 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves S 2 ft at 4 seconds. SWell W 2 ft at 10 seconds.
Sat night..S wind 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves S 2 ft at 4 seconds. SWell W 2 ft at 10 seconds. Chance of drizzle.
Sun..S wind 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt, rising to 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 30 kt. Wind waves S 3 ft at 5 seconds. SWell W 2 ft at 10 seconds.
Mon..S wind 20 to 25 kt, easing to 15 to 20 kt. Gusts to 30 kt. Wind waves S 3 ft at 6 seconds. SWell W 7 ft at 10 seconds.

PZZ200 209 Pm Pdt Wed Oct 4 2023
Synopsis for the southern washington and northern oregon coast.. High pressure remains anchored offshore through Saturday with thermal low pressure building along the southern or coast through late Thursday, promoting breezy north winds through Thursday. Active weather returns late Sunday into next week with building winds and seas.

FXUS66 KPQR 042218 AFDPQR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Portland OR 318 PM PDT Wed Oct 4 2023

SYNOPSIS
An upper level ridge of high pressure will slowly shift across the Pacific NW through Saturday while low level offshore flow develops, bringing a period of sunny, dry and warm weather to the area through the weekend. Highs will likely reach into the 80s on Friday and Saturday for most lowland locations. Onshore flow returns early next week while a frontal system brings widespread rain to the area on Monday. Cool, fall-like weather likely to persist through the middle of next week.

SHORT TERM
Tonight through Friday night...Visible satellite imagery this afternoon shows clouds gradually decreasing across northwest OR and southwest WA, allowing for most locations to see increasing sun later this afternoon. Near normal highs today will begin to trend warmer on Thursday as high pressure aloft builds over the region and low level onshore flow develops. Another round of low stratus and patchy fog is possible for Thursday morning, but increasing northeast to easterly winds will bring drier conditions, while widespread sunny skies are expected by Thursday afternoon.
Temperatures are expected to warm into the upper 70s to around 80 degrees inland, while coastal locations likely will see highs in the 70s.

The upper ridge axis shifts across the area on Friday with strong offshore flow in the lower levels expected. Overnight temperatures will likely remain relatively elevated (upper 50s to lower 60s) in areas of breezy easterly winds and above the subsidence inversion.
There is high confidence that interior lowland temperatures will warm into the 80s (at least an 80-90% chance), while many locations along the coast have around a 50% chance to see highs reach 80 degrees. Friday will likely be the warmest day of the week. East winds are also expected to be strongest on Friday as surface low pressure pushes north along the Oregon coast. The latest HRRR guidance suggests means ensemble winds gusts up to 30-40 mph through the Columbia River Gorge. Aside from fuels being quite moist, relative humidity values appear most likely to end up well above critical thresholds so few fire weather concerns exist. /DH

LONG TERM
Saturday through Wednesday...Models and their ensembles are in good agreement that warm and dry weather continues into the weekend as the upper level ridge slides eastward across the Rockies.
There is very little model spread that inland temperatures will again warm into the 80s on Saturday. Offshore flow weakens on Saturday while a southerly flow reversal is likely to occur along the coast bringing increasing stratus and cooler temps there.
Onshore flow returns to the area on Sunday with temperatures likely to drop back into the 70s.

Ensemble guidance is in good agreement that an incoming shortwave trough will push the next Pacific frontal system across the region early next week, bringing a period of widespread rain and cool weather Monday through Tuesday. Model ensemble guidance is showing better agreement of QPF and timing of the system, but significant uncertainty still exists. The latest IVT plume forecast shows mean values peaking in the moderate (500-750 kg/ms) range, but there remains a significant amount of ensemble members in the strong atmospheric river category to not ignore possible impacts.
Fortunately, the attendant front is expected to move through rather quickly preventing the associated atmospheric river from lingering too long. Ensemble precipitable water forecast amounts are also expected to be around 1.0-1.2 inches. According to the NBM, there remains a 70-95% chance of 48-hr rainfall amounts in excess of one inch across the forecast area. Probabilities for two inches or more are around 60-80% along the coast, coastal mountains and much of the Cascades. Cool showery weather is likely behind the front. /DH

AVIATION
MVFR ceilings continue to break up from south to north Wednesday afternoon with mostly widespread VFR ceilings expected by 20-22z Wednesday. Winds are shifting to north and will increase after 21-22z. The central and southern Willamette Valley and central Oregon Coast will see winds 10-15 kts with gusts to 20-25 kts through 03z Thursday. Elsewhere will see winds increase to 7-10 kts. This will allow clouds to completely clear by 00-03z Thursday except for along the far NW OR/SW WA Coast north of Tillamook.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...Ceilings will continue to raise and slowly break up through Wednesday afternoon. Mostly clear skies should return by 00-03z Thursday. Winds becoming north generally less than 10 kts after 21z. -HEC

MARINE
High pressure over the eastern Pacific along with a thermal trough building north along the southern Oregon coast from northern California will cause pressure gradients to tighten Wednesday afternoon into Thursday night. This will result in gusty northerly winds through Thursday night. Strongest winds will be south of Cape Falcon through early Thursday then will spread north up to Ocean Park along the SW Washington coast by Thursday afternoon. Seas mostly 4 to 7 ft with highest seas to south of Newport due to choppy steep wind-driven seas. Current Small Craft Advisory looks reasonable through Thursday evening, and extended it north into PZZ271 and PZZ251 beginning late Thursday morning.

Pressure gradients will slacken Thursday night into Friday, with winds decreasing and seas decreasing. This pattern will continue into the weekend before multiple frontal systems starting late Sunday will bring stronger winds with gusts to 20 to 30 kts at times and higher seas to 9 to 12 ft. -HEC

PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...None.
WA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM Thursday to midnight PDT Thursday night for Coastal waters from Cape Shoalwater WA to Cape Falcon OR out 60 NM.

Small Craft Advisory until midnight PDT Thursday night for Coastal waters from Cape Foulweather OR to Florence OR out 10 NM.Coastal waters from Cape Foulweather OR to Florence OR from 10 to 60 NM.

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Nestucca Bay entrance
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Wed -- 05:24 AM PDT     5.99 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:17 AM PDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 10:37 AM PDT     3.03 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 01:51 PM PDT     Moonset
Wed -- 04:17 PM PDT     7.52 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:50 PM PDT     Sunset
Wed -- 09:54 PM PDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 11:55 PM PDT     0.09 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Nestucca Bay entrance, Oregon, Tide feet

Kernville
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Wed -- 05:53 AM PDT     4.68 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:17 AM PDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 11:18 AM PDT     2.21 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 01:50 PM PDT     Moonset
Wed -- 04:46 PM PDT     5.88 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:50 PM PDT     Sunset
Wed -- 09:56 PM PDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Kernville, Siletz River, Oregon, Tide feet

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