Sunday, December8, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Dallas, OR

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:35AMSunset 4:32PM Sunday December 8, 2019 6:38 PM PST (02:38 UTC) Moonrise 2:53PMMoonset 3:43AM Illumination 92% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 12 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ255 Coastal Waters From Cascade Head To Florence Or Out 10 Nm- Waters From Cascade Head To Florence Or From 10 To 60 Nm- 228 Pm Pst Sun Dec 8 2019
Tonight..SE wind to 5 kt. Wind waves E 1 ft at 4 seconds. SWell sw 5 ft at 10 seconds. SEcondary swell nw 5 ft at 11 seconds, shifting to the nw 6 ft at 15 seconds. SEcondary swell sw 4 ft at 9 seconds.
Mon..SE wind 5 to 10 kt. Gusts to 15 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves se 2 ft at 4 seconds. NW swell 6 ft at 14 seconds.
Mon night..S wind 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Wind waves S 3 ft at 5 seconds. W swell 5 ft at 13 seconds. Chance of rain.
Tue..S wind 20 to 25 kt, easing to 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves S 4 ft at 6 seconds. W swell 9 ft at 14 seconds. Rain.
Tue night..S wind 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves S 2 ft at 4 seconds. W swell 9 ft at 13 seconds. Chance of rain.
Wed..S wind 15 to 20 kt. Wind waves 3 ft. W swell 9 ft. Rain.
Wed night..S wind 20 to 25 kt. Wind waves 5 ft. W swell 12 ft. Rain.
Thu..SW wind 15 to 20 kt. Wind waves 5 ft. W swell 15 ft.
Fri..SW wind 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft. W swell 15 ft.
PZZ200 228 Pm Pst Sun Dec 8 2019
Synopsis for the southern washington and northern oregon coast.. High pres over the offshore waters will shift inland over the pac nw by early Mon. A series of weakening fronts will reach the waters through at least mid week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Dallas, OR
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location: 44.99, -123.35     debug


Area Discussion for - Portland, OR
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FXUS66 KPQR 090200 AFDPQR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Portland OR 600 PM PST Sun Dec 8 2019

SYNOPSIS. This weeks weather resembles a dishwasher, with alternating wet and dry cycles. Dry on Mon, then a front brings precipitation across region on Tue. Brief break Tue night into Wed, then another front will bring more rain and mountains snow to the region later Wed and Thu. The unsettled weather continuing into next weekend.

UPDATE. We recently updated the forecast to make the mention of drizzle a bit more widespread this evening, following radar trends. Radar echoes barely showed up on KRTX in VCP 35, but the light echoes (likely drizzle or very small raindrops) show up a lot better on VCP 31 as they move across inland SW Washington and the north Oregon Cascades. Temperatures are presently near freezing along Timberline Road, with the NWAC site at Timberline reporting 29 degrees, so have a bit of concern about freezing drizzle for elevations above the passes. As mentioned below in the short term discussion, a strengthening subsidence inversion will push drier air down from the top overnight, thinning the clouds and bringing an end to the drizzle by around midnight tonight. Weagle

SHORT TERM. Tonight through Wednesday . Water vapor satellite imagery this afternoon reveals a sharp and high amplitude shortwave ridge over the eastern Pacific that is currently shifting eastward towards the Pacific Northwest. This will result in a lowering subsidence inversion and result in the lower atmosphere stabilizing further. This will produce inversions for most valley locations that will struggle to break Monday and Tuesday. As a result, the current Air Stagnation Advisory looks on track for the next 48 hours.

In the immediate short term, visible satellite imagery reveals a plethora of small scale features and terrain driven flow draped around the CWA. Pressure gradients continue to support some low level flow moving west to east across the Columbia River Gorge and Cascades this afternoon. However, models are in good agreement these pressure gradients will reverse overnight, albeit remain very weak. This will result in a slight easterly drift developing in the 850-925mb layer overnight over the Willamette Valley and Cascade foothills. This should result in some of the 3-5kft ceilings currently found across the area to dissipate later tonight. Assuming this occurs, we should see plenty of low clouds and fog develop in the Willamette and lower Columbia River valleys, but again this will be very dependent on whether or not the clouds around the 3-5kft layer actually clear.

This uncertainty in low cloud and fog development later tonight does result in a somewhat uncertain high temperature forecast for Monday. Assuming plenty of low clouds and fog develop overnight, clearing should be slow and many locations in the Willamette and lower Columbia River valley will struggle to reach the mid 40s. Did nudge high temperatures upward ever so slightly towards what most model guidance shows given the uncertainty, but still leaning that many locations away from the mouth of the Columbia River Gorge and edges of the Willamette Valley will struggle to break out of the low clouds Monday, and will instead stay socked in and remain cool all day.

Otherwise, the next weakening front still looks on track for Tuesday. Easterly winds through the Columbia River Gorge should slowly increase Monday and Tuesday in advance of it, but still remain well below our strong wintertime easterly wind events for places like Troutdale and Corbett. Most models suggest the Tuesday front will bring light rain to the area late Tuesday morning/midday into Tuesday evening. The splitting nature of the upper level shortwave trough associated with this front should limit QPF totals.

Models generally agree a transitory weak shortwave ridge will result in the area drying out late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. The next frontal storm system will then spread rain back into the area late Wednesday. PoPs and temperatures were generally nudged towards a blend of model guidance Tuesday and Wednesday given slight timing and strength differences between models and their ensembles. /Neuman

LONG TERM. Wednesday night through Sunday . A front will move into northwest Oregon and southwest Washington on Thursday bringing ample precipitation to the area. While it will predominately fall as rain, snow is expected along the Cascades. This front is well ahead of a broad low pressure system with the low centered over the northern Gulf of Alaska. As the low moves eastward, zonal flow will take over. This generally westerly flow will usher in colder air from the North Pacific which will cause temperatures to begin to fall slightly on Friday. Snow levels will follow suit dropping to near 3,500 ft Friday night. A weak shortwave and continuous cold air flow will bring low temperatures to the mid 30s through the Willamette Vally, and snow levels below 2,000 ft on Sunday.

At this point, models are in decent agreement with the overall synoptic pattern, but there is quite a bit of spread in the mesoscale features. The spread in solutions is leading to less confidence in the output after Friday. -Muessle

AVIATION. Weak flow, stable conditions and plenty of low level moisture will lead to primarily a mix of LIFR, IFR and MVFR flight conditions through 00z Tuesday with an occasional area of VFR flight conditions. A weak easterly drift developing around 850mb may be enough to clear out the current ceilings around 4kft. This may allow many locations to trend towards primarily a mix of IFR and LIFR conditions. These conditions should be slow to dissipate except near the mouth of the Columbia River Gorge and along the coast where weak easterly winds will develop.

KPDX AND APPROACHES . Weak flow, stable conditions and plenty of low level moisture should lead to VFR conditions trending towards a mix of MVFR and IFR conditions overnight. There is a chance that cigs currently around 4kft will dissipate towards 06-12z Monday, which may lead to conditions trending to LIFR conditions. Conditions should improve between 18z Monday and 00z Tuesday, but IFR and MVFR conditions could easily persist through this time. /Neuman

MARINE. Weak high pressure will build over the waters through Mon when it moves inland. This lull after this latest front will cause seas to ease to near 5ft with a 11 second period through Tue. By Tue afternoon, seas will begin to build as another front will move over the waters. This high energy front will increase southerly winds to near 20 kt Tue afternoon, but they will quickly fall back to the 10 to 15 kt range. Seas will temporarily build to near 11 ft Tue before easing back to 6 to 8 ft by early Wed morning.

Zonal westerly flow around a broad low pressure is expected to increase seas to near 15 ft by Thu afternoon. While the low is not expected to advance towards the waters, a shortwave embedded in the flow around the low will. At this time, confidence in this system is not high as models are depicting seas a bit higher than what would generally be expected with this system. It is possible that seas will be increased as the event comes closer. -Muessle

PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. OR . Air Stagnation Advisory until noon PST Tuesday for Cascade Foothills in Lane County-Central Willamette Valley-Greater Portland Metro Area-Lower Columbia-Northern Oregon Cascade Foothills-South Willamette Valley.

WA . Air Stagnation Advisory until noon PST Tuesday for Greater Vancouver Area-I-5 Corridor in Cowlitz County-South Washington Cascade Foothills.

PZ . None.



Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSPortland www.twitter.com/NWSPortland

This discussion is for Northwest Oregon and Southwest Washington from the Cascade crest to 60 nautical miles offshore. This area is commonly referred to as the forecast area.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SBEO3 - 9435380 - South Beach, OR 45 mi75 min Calm G 0 50°F 48°F1021.6 hPa
NWPO3 - Newport, OR 46 mi39 min N 5.1 G 5.1 49°F 1022.1 hPa (+1.1)
TLBO3 - 9437540 - Garibaldi, Tillamook Bay, OR 49 mi75 min 48°F1021.9 hPa

Wind History for South Beach, Yaquina River, OR
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
McMinnville, McMinnville Municipal Airport, OR18 mi46 minN 05.00 miFog/Mist48°F46°F96%1021.6 hPa
Salem - McNary Field, OR18 mi43 minN 07.00 miOvercast50°F46°F89%1021.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KSLE

Wind History from SLE (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW4CalmNW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoCalmS6E3SE3NW4NE4W3CalmW3CalmN4NW3CalmCalmCalmCalmN3NW5CalmCalmNW4CalmCalmCalm
2 days agoCalmCalmW3W3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS3CalmS3CalmCalmCalmS3CalmN4CalmCalmNW4NW3CalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Nestucca Bay entrance, Oregon
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Nestucca Bay entrance
Click for Map
Sun -- 03:27 AM PST     2.34 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 03:45 AM PST     Moonset
Sun -- 07:41 AM PST     Sunrise
Sun -- 09:32 AM PST     7.77 feet High Tide
Sun -- 02:54 PM PST     Moonrise
Sun -- 04:33 PM PST     Sunset
Sun -- 04:42 PM PST     0.84 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 10:41 PM PST     5.90 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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4.63.72.92.42.43.14.35.66.97.77.77.164.531.810.91.42.53.955.85.9

Tide / Current Tables for Kernville, Siletz River, Oregon
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Kernville
Click for Map
Sun -- 03:45 AM PST     Moonset
Sun -- 04:08 AM PST     1.70 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:40 AM PST     Sunrise
Sun -- 10:01 AM PST     6.07 feet High Tide
Sun -- 02:55 PM PST     Moonrise
Sun -- 04:34 PM PST     Sunset
Sun -- 05:23 PM PST     0.61 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 11:10 PM PST     4.61 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.93.22.521.71.92.63.74.85.76.15.85.24.231.91.10.60.71.42.43.44.34.6

Weather Map
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wmap_P
GEOS Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Portland, OR (21,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Portland, OR
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