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LHZ362 Lake Huron From Presque Isle Light To Sturgeon Point Mi Beyond 5nm Off Shore- Lake Huron From Sturgeon Point To Alabaster Mi Beyond 5nm Off Shore- 344 Pm Est Mon Dec 4 2023
Tonight..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet in the late evening and overnight.
Tuesday..North winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday night..North winds 5 to 10 knots increasing to 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Wednesday..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots backing to the west early in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Wednesday night..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots in the late evening and overnight. A chance of snow showers in the evening...then a chance of snow showers and showers after midnight. Waves 2 to 4 feet building to 5 to 7 feet in the late evening and overnight. Waves occasionally around 10 feet.
Thursday..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots decreasing to 10 to 15 knots late in the morning...then decreasing to 5 to 10 knots late in the afternoon becoming south 10 to 15 knots late in the evening. Waves 6 to 9 feet subsiding to 3 to 5 feet late in the afternoon. Waves occasionally around 12 feet.
Friday..South winds 15 to 20 knots becoming southwest 10 to 15 knots in the late evening and early morning. Waves 4 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 8 feet.
Saturday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots backing to the northeast in the late evening and early morning. A chance of showers. Waves 2 to 4 feet.

LHZ300
No data

FXUS63 KAPX 042300 AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 600 PM EST Mon Dec 4 2023

NEAR TERM
(Through Tonight)
Issued at 305 PM EST Mon Dec 4 2023

High Impact Weather...None is expected.

Primary Forecast Concerns...Cloud cover, low temperatures and pops.

It continues to be a challenging cloud forecast across the region.
Just enough over lake instability to produce low clouds off of Lake Michigan across the western half of the Northern Lower Peninsula.
This is expected to remain the case into tonight. In addition, an Alberta Clipper which is expected to move by to our south Tuesday will increase mid and high level moisture overnight. The combination of this and the over lake instability may produce some light snow or flurries across southwest zones...roughly from Manistee to Leland.
Elsewhere, clouds will be on the increase. Meanwhile across eastern zones, mostly clear skies in combination with light winds and a fresh snow pack will likely lead to excellent radiational cooling conditions this evening (out ahead of the clouds). Wide range of low temperatures expected tonight (will likely occur early) with lows in the mid teens across eastern upper and northeast lower while spots near Lake Michigan may only fall into the low 30s.

SHORT TERM
(Tuesday through Thursday)
Issued at 305 PM EST Mon Dec 4 2023

High Impact Weather Potential: Minimal.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Broad long wave troughing encompassing most of North America...strong upper low/trough over the northeast Pacific directing an atmospheric river into British Columbia and the Pacific northwest
Strongest flow well south of the Great Lakes
with short wave troughs tracking across the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys and digging southeast across the Dakotas. Low level thermal troughing extends across much of eastern Canada and down into the Great Lakes and New England (12z APX sounding 850mb temperature was - 5C). At the surface several compact low pressure centers reflective of their parent short waves aloft...one over western Kentucky and a clipper over southern Saskatchewan (which is lagging it parent short wave). Cyclonic flow lingers across the Great Lakes in the wake of another low over the St. Lawrence River Valley.

Dakotas short wave trough will reinforce the mean long wave trough position though the over pattern over North America becomes more amplified. By midweek the long wave trough wavelength shortens and the axis shifts east as strong upper level ridging (+2 to +3 sigma 500mb height anomalies) expands across the Plains and into the Midwest/Great Lakes. This will eventually scour out the low level thermal troughing in the Wednesday/Thursday time frame. As that occurs what remains of the current northeast Pacific low/trough will send a couple of pieces of energy into the western U.S. What comes of that evolution will be discussed in the long term portion of this discussion.

Clipper low over southern Saskatchewan will follow its parent short wave across the northern Plains and into the Ohio Valley Tuesday (while continuing to weaken)...followed by high pressure that will extend from the middle/lower Mississippi Valley northeast across the Great Lakes Wednesday. Warm air advection also kicks in Wednesday around the north side of this anticyclone...continuing into Thursday.

Primary Forecast Concerns: Snow coverage with clipper passing south of the forecast area Tuesday
lake effect potential Tuesday night
warm advection precipitation Wednesday night/Thursday...high temperatures Thursday.

Snow coverage with clipper passing south of the forecast area Tuesday: Surface low and short wave trough slicing by to the southwest and south of the forecast area...there is a decent shield of moisture around the north side of this system which spreads into northern Lower...but better dynamic forcing expected to remain south of the area and forecast soundings suggest incomplete saturation between synoptic moisture and lingering boundary layer moisture which will probably be enhanced a bit by instability off of Lake Michigan. So whether or not there will be an effective seeder- feeder process or not is the question especially the farther north you go. Have leaned on SREF PoPs for this forecast which highlights areas west of the US-131 corridor for better potential for measurable precipitation with some shallow lake enhancement possible...mostly snow but perhaps falling as rain along the lakeshore with a shallow surface based warm layer. Will also have some flurries mentioned in most other areas.

Lake effect potential Tuesday night: Light north-northwest boundary layer flow expected Tuesday night as surface ridging builds in from the west. Cold air continues to linger (850mb temperatures in the -8C to -10C range)...and given the weak nature of the boundary layer flow some lake breeze formation may focus convergence especially on the Lake Michigan side where again will focus better SREF based PoPs.

Warm advection precipitation Wednesday night/Thursday: Solid push of warm air begins in earnest on Wednesday...band of Pacific moisture interacting with this baroclinic zone expected to bring a relatively narrow north-south oriented band of precipitation to northern Michigan probably starting Wednesday evening. Likely starting as mostly snow but strength of warm advection may result in a change to rain on the back end of the precip band (perhaps freezing rain in the higher terrain where surface temperatures will be close to freezing??). Accumulations should be light (mostly likely under an inch).

High temperatures Thursday: Looking at widespread 40s on Thursday...
how warm may depend on how soon cloud cover clears out of the area. Most record highs are in the 50s save for ANJ (45/1951) and PLN (47/1953).

LONG TERM
(Thursday night through Monday)
Issued at 305 PM EST Mon Dec 4 2023

High Impact Weather Potential: Wintry weather potential for the weekend...with lots of uncertainty however.

Pacific-origin height falls spreading across the western U.S.
starting Thursday will have a large impact on the extended forecast.
There may be a lead short wave trough the passes in the vicinity of the upper Lakes Friday...while a larger amplitude trough develops over central North America by next weekend. Focus will be on the base of this trough as it moves out of the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley Sunday into Monday. At the very least looks more unsettled through the weekend and also portends a return of colder air to Michigan...but there are a number of uncertainties in play with regard to system timing/strength. That combined with this being a day 6/7 type of event will preclude any messaging just yet...will give the guidance a couple of days to simmer on this.

AVIATION
(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 600 PM EST Mon Dec 4 2023

Weak low level ridging currently in place across the Western Great Lakes will give way to low pressure diving SE out of the Northern Plains and into the Southern Great Lakes tonight...and then into the Ohio Valley on Tuesday. Majority of precip from this system will slide south of our area...but will give our SW CWA (around TVC and mbL) small chances of light snow over the next 24 hours. Prevailing conditions will remain MVFR/low VFR thru Tuesday night. Surface winds will remain generally light and from the north.

MARINE
Issued at 305 PM EST Mon Dec 4 2023

Minimal marine issues expected through midweek with a weak pressure gradient in place as high pressure eventually slides in from the northwest on Wednesday. Winds will begin to pick up later Wednesday into Wednesday night as the surface ridge axis slides to the east...this may bring small craft conditions to at least Lake Michigan nearshore zones Wednesday night.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

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