Wednesday, January27, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Harrisville, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 7:45AMSunset 5:27PM Wednesday January 27, 2021 9:54 PM EST (02:54 UTC) Moonrise 4:13PMMoonset 7:25AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ362 Lake Huron From Presque Isle Light To Sturgeon Point Mi Beyond 5nm Off Shore- Lake Huron From Sturgeon Point To Alabaster Mi Beyond 5nm Off Shore- 940 Pm Est Wed Jan 27 2021
Rest of tonight..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Waves 5 to 7 feet. Waves occasionally around 10 feet.
Thursday..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Freezing spray in the morning. Waves 5 to 7 feet. Waves occasionally around 10 feet.
Thursday night..Northwest winds 20 to 25 knots with gusts to around 30 knots decreasing to 15 to 20 knots after midnight. Freezing spray after midnight. Waves 6 to 9 feet. Waves occasionally around 12 feet.
Friday..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots decreasing to 10 to 15 knots early in the afternoon. Waves 5 to 7 feet. Waves occasionally around 10 feet.
Friday night..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming north 5 to 10 knots in the late evening and overnight. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet after midnight.
Saturday..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming east 15 to 20 knots. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 3 to 5 feet late in the afternoon.
Sunday..East winds 15 to 20 knots. Waves 4 to 6 feet building to 6 to 9 feet in the late evening and early morning. Waves occasionally around 12 feet.
Monday..East winds 15 to 20 knots becoming northeast 10 to 15 knots. Waves 4 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 8 feet.
LHZ362 Expires:202101280915;;603129 FZUS63 KDTX 280240 GLFLH Open Lake Forecast for Lake Huron National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 940 PM EST Wed Jan 27 2021 For waters beyond five nautical miles off shore on Lake Huron Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. .SYNOPSIS...High pressure, 30.60 inches, centered near Chicago keeps dry conditions going through Saturday. Moderate northerly winds continue tonight and Thursday before weakening Friday when center of the high drifts directly over the central Great Lakes. LHZ362-363-280915-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Harrisville, MI
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location: 44.99, -82.16     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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FXUS63 KAPX 280247 AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 947 PM EST Wed Jan 27 2021

UPDATE. Issued at 947 PM EST Wed Jan 27 2021

Nnw flow lake effect snow showers continues. There is slow eastward translation of some of the bands off of Lake MI, indicative of slow backing of the flow. Bands are not persistently strong, but a few blips of stronger returns are noted. Recently, there is uptick in returns upstream of Gd Trav Bay, implying an imminent increase in snow showers near and a bit east of TVC.

Keeping an eye on radar trends, and have boosted pops for the band that extends from Petoskey to a bit west of the office. But the overall gist of the forecast is fine. A touch more backing of the flow will be seen between now and 09Z/4am, and banding in northern lower MI will be shunted a bit eastward with time. In eastern upper, the mass of cold air on Ontario should impede that eastward expansion as it spreads out.

UPDATE Issued at 716 PM EST Wed Jan 27 2021

Have bumped up pops/snow amounts tonight in the Elk Rapids-S Boardman stretch to 2-3" (for now). Best banding early this evening in nw lower MI has settled into that area. Recent RAP runs favor that area at least off-and-on thru the night, even as winds back a bit.

NEAR TERM. (Through Thursday) Issued at 347 PM EST Wed Jan 27 2021

. Modest lake effect snow continues .

High Impact Weather Potential: Minor. Lake snow showers through Thursday will lead to periodic visibility reductions and may lead to slick roads.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Afternoon composite analysis reveals a pair of short-waves traversing through eastern NOAM, one rolling through the lower Ohio Valley, and a second closed low over eastern Ontario. Surface high pressure stretches from south- central Canada down through the central CONUS, edging it's way eastward into the Great Lakes. Larger scale subsidence and drier air across northern Michigan has produced some sunshine across the region today. But a cold airmass (-18C to -20C H8 air) and resulting lake instability has/is overcoming that some some extent, with lake induced snow showers ongoing. With daytime heating/boundary layer expansion, snow showers have spread out a bit/becoming more cellular this afternoon, lessening accumulations for any one area. But where snow showers have been most persistent we have been getting reports of accumulations in the 2 to 4 inch/per 12 hour range from this stuff.

Generally status-quo through Thursday as surface high pressure gradually edges into the western Great Lakes with only modest changes in lake effect snow potential. BufKit soundings show lake induced CAPE values running 300-500 J/Kg through Thursday with inversion heights holding right around 5K feet and low level mean flow holding in that NW/NNW flow direction. With loss of heating this evening, I anticipate lake banding to once again re-organize with the bigger impacts in areas mostly US-131 and westward, parts of NE Lower Michigan and western Chip/Mack counties. Again, snow accumulations within the more persistent snow showers have been running in the 2 to 4 inch range of fluffy/dry snow every 12 hours or so, and I see no reason to deviate from that at this juncture. Thus I have no plans for any winter weather headlines at this point. But later shifts will of course monitor lake snow intensities/accumulations.

SHORT TERM. (Thursday night through Saturday) Issued at 347 PM EST Wed Jan 27 2021

. Chilly with A Few Lake Effect Snow showers .

High impact weather: None is expected at this time.

Primary forecast concerns/challenges: Pops through Friday.

It remains cold enough aloft through the period for lake processes to potentially produce lake effect snow showers. However, moisture is waning with mean 850-700 mb rh falling from near 50 percent at 29/00z to between 30 and 35 percent at 29/12z then even less to near 25 percent during the day Friday. In addition, inversion heights fall from between 2500 and 3000 feet to near 2000 feet during the same time period. Therefore, any lingering lake effect in northwest lower and eastern upper should be very light and not accumulate much or at all (may be more like just flurries). Similar conditions during the day Friday then winds lighten up Friday night into Saturday further limiting activity. Temperatures will remain slightly below normal for a change through the period. It still looks like plenty of clouds trapped below the shallow inversion which should limit lows from falling all that much Thursday night. Perhaps some clearing Friday night which could lead to lows falling to near or even below zero in a few spots.

LONG TERM. (Saturday night through Wednesday) Issued at 347 PM EST Wed Jan 27 2021

. Minimal Weather Concerns with Moderating Temperatures .

High impact weather: None is expected.

Not a whole lot is expected weatherwise through the long term with perhaps more active weather just beyond the scope of this forecast (late next week). Extended models are coming into better agreement that low pressure slides by well south of the region Saturday night into Sunday. Therefore, have pushed slight chance pops down into far southern counties and have doubts that precipitation will even make it that far north. Otherwise, the region is expected to be in between upper level high pressure (an omega block) to the west and troughing moving by to the north. This should keep the area sheltered from any incoming sensible weather for the most part. Temperatures are expected to moderate to slightly above normal through the period.

AVIATION. (For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening) Issued at 630 PM EST Wed Jan 27 2021

Prevailing MVFR to VFR cigs, with brief IFR vsbys possible.

Light to briefly moderate lake effect snow showers continue in chilly nw to n flow. These could target any of the TAF sites thru the forecast, with brief IFR vsbys. TVC is the site most likely to be impacted. Snow-liquid ratios will be in the upper teens. Otherwise, the prevailing condition is a mix of MVFR to VFR cigs, and that also will prevail thru this TAF period.

N to nw winds will be a touch brisk at times. Those winds back somewhat nw on Thursday.

MARINE. Issued at 347 PM EST Wed Jan 27 2021

Gusty northwesterly winds will lead to small craft advisory headlines on parts of Lake Michigan and Huron tonight, and lingering on Lake Huron Thursday. Otherwise, lake snow showers, cold temperatures will be the main weather concern through Thursday. Getting into that time of year where ice development on the lakes can increase quickly. Current ice forecasts suggest slow to moderate ice growth for the near future.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . NONE. LH . SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 4 AM EST Friday for LHZ347-348. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 4 AM EST Thursday for LHZ349. LM . SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 4 AM EST Thursday for LMZ344>346. LS . NONE.

UPDATE . JZ NEAR TERM . BA SHORT TERM . AS LONG TERM . AS AVIATION . JZ MARINE . BA


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
APNM4 - Alpena Harbor Light, MI 67 mi45 min NNW 9.9 G 13 17°F
LPNM4 - Alpena, MI - 9075065 67 mi55 min N 7 G 11 17°F 1027.9 hPa (+1.1)12°F

Wind History for Alpena, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Alpena, Alpena County Regional Airport, MI75 mi61 minWNW 8 G 1610.00 miOvercast17°F9°F70%1030.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KAPN

Wind History from APN (wind in knots)
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2 days agoSW7SW6SW6W4NW6NW9NW7W3W4W3W4W5W5W5W6NW5N6N6N7N7N5NW3CalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for
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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.