Saturday, July4, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Harrisville, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:43AMSunset 9:13PM Saturday July 4, 2020 8:41 AM EDT (12:41 UTC) Moonrise 8:13PMMoonset 4:03AM Illumination 99% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ362 Expires:202007042015;;290023 Fzus63 Kdtx 040748 Glflh Open Lake Forecast For Lake Huron National Weather Service Detroit/pontiac Mi 348 Am Edt Sat Jul 4 2020 For Waters Beyond Five Nautical Miles Off Shore On Lake Huron Waves Are The Significant Wave Height - The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave Spectrum. Occasional Wave Height Is The Average Of The Highest 1/10 Of The Wave Spectrum.
Synopsis..High pressure averaging 30.00 inches remains anchored across the great lakes region. This will result in favorable boating conditions through the weekend. Lhz361>363-042015- lake huron from 5nm east of mackinac bridge to presque isle lt beyond 5 nm off shore- lake huron from presque isle light to sturgeon point mi beyond 5nm off shore- lake huron from sturgeon point to alabaster mi beyond 5nm off shore- 348 am edt Sat jul 4 2020
Today..North winds 5 to 10 knots early in the morning becoming light and variable. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tonight..Light and variable winds. Waves 2 feet or less.
Sunday..Light and variable winds. Waves 2 feet or less.
Sunday night..Light and variable winds becoming southeast 5 to 10 knots. Waves 2 feet or less.
Monday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday..South winds 5 to 10 knots becoming light and variable. A chance of showers in the late evening and early morning. Waves 2 feet or less.
Wednesday..Light and variable winds becoming southeast 5 to 10 knots until early morning. A chance of showers early in the morning. Waves 2 feet or less.
LHZ362


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Harrisville, MI
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location: 44.99, -82.16     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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FXUS63 KAPX 041049 AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 649 AM EDT Sat Jul 4 2020

NEAR TERM. (Today through Tonight) Issued at 314 AM EDT Sat Jul 4 2020

. Staying toasty .

High impact weather potential: minimal.

Semi-permanent (seemingly) high pressure sits over the nw portion of the Great Lakes basin. This high will drift se-ward toward lower MI thru tonight. In its wake, a back-door cold front will ease on down toward eastern upper MI very late tonight. Aloft, we are on the edge of a broad 500mb heat ridge in the central US, with nw flow aloft increasing a bit tonight, helping that backdoor surface cold front make southward progress.

Chances for sensible wx aren't zero, but they are quite small. With very light low-level winds, abundant localized forcing will materialize this afternoon as lake breezes move inland. This was sufficient to kick off a few showers yesterday, mainly in ne lower MI. A capping inversion is present from 690mb to 590mb, and temps are progged to be a little warmer in this layer, resulting in more CIN. CIN values are expected to be 30j/kg or greater this afternoon. If we are going to get past that, the most likely spots is probably the CAD area, where sub-850mb convergence is maximized, and the terrain offers assistance. The RAP is the one model that does crank out a touch of QPF. But this chances appears smaller than 15 percent, and will not be included in the grids.

Plenty of sunshine today, and another warm day will result. Highs temps will be mainly within a few degrees of 90f, a touch cooler along some of the beaches.

Tonight, as the back door cold front edges toward eastern upper MI, cloud cover will see an uptick overnight in northern sections. There may be a marine contribution to this increase, given progged cooling/moistening of the BL, and the strong marine layer present now on Superior. So patchy stratus and fog are possible in eastern upper MI late tonight, and would not totally rule out a touch of drizzle. Otherwise, things look quiet. Min temps will be near 60f to the mid 60s.

SHORT TERM. (Sunday through Monday) Issued at 314 AM EDT Sat Jul 4 2020

. More Summertime Heat .

High Impact Weather Potential . Very Low.

Forecast Concerns . Whether or not to include any pops.

Persistent upper level ridging will continue to result in more very warm to hot conditions and little to no chance for rainfall. The only realistic possibility for perhaps a couple of showers or storms to form would be along the lake breeze. This would be mainly near Saginaw Bay later Sunday afternoon into early Sunday evening but even at that it's only a slight chance. Highs both days in the upper 80s to mid 90s. Lows Sunday night in the low to mid 60s.

LONG TERM. (Monday night through Friday) Issued at 314 AM EDT Sat Jul 4 2020

. Continued Heatwave but with Some Rainfall Possible .

High Impact Weather Potential . Low.

No big changes in the overall pattern as the upper level ridge continues to result in fairly high heights through the period. However, periodic weak short waves (mainly on or about Tuesday and Thursday night into Friday) may weaken the cap just enough to allow for a few much needed showers or storms to develop. Temperatures are expected to continue to be between 10 and 15 degrees above normal through the period.

AVIATION. (For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning) Issued at 649 AM EDT Sat Jul 4 2020

Mostly VFR.

A touch of fog has been seen this morning at PLN, mbL, and even TVC. That will burn off very quickly. VFR conditions for the rest of today into early tonight, with just a few cu. Still quiet tonight, though shallow ground fog with likely make a reappearance.

Light winds.

MARINE. Issued at 314 AM EDT Sat Jul 4 2020

Light winds and minimal waves thru Sunday, as high pressure to our nw moves over lower MI. Some marine fog/stratus is possible up on Whitefish Bay.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . NONE. LH . NONE. LM . NONE. LS . NONE.

NEAR TERM . JZ SHORT TERM . AS LONG TERM . AS AVIATION . JZ MARINE . JZ


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
APNM4 - Alpena Harbor Light, MI 67 mi31 min E 2.9 G 4.1 72°F
LPNM4 - Alpena, MI - 9075065 67 mi53 min NE 1 G 2.9 70°F 53°F1018.1 hPa58°F

Wind History for Alpena, MI
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Alpena, Alpena County Regional Airport, MI75 mi47 minN 010.00 miFair69°F64°F87%1018.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KAPN

Wind History from APN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW6NW7NW8N10
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N6NE9N8N9N8N8N5CalmCalmNW3NW3NW4N4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoNW546W6W45SW4W6NW7NW9NW7NW73NW4W54NW5NW4W4CalmNW3CalmW4NW5
2 days agoCalmE6E5--E5E7E5E8E7E6SE5SE5SE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW4NW3

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (8,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.