Monday, January20, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Harrisville, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:52AMSunset 5:17PM Monday January 20, 2020 10:48 AM EST (15:48 UTC) Moonrise 4:08AMMoonset 1:45PM Illumination 21% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 25 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ362 Expires:202001202115;;243391 Fzus63 Kdtx 201438 Glflh Open Lake Forecast For Lake Huron National Weather Service Detroit/pontiac Mi 938 Am Est Mon Jan 20 2020 For Waters Beyond Five Nautical Miles Off Shore On Lake Huron Waves Are The Significant Wave Height - The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave Spectrum. Occasional Wave Height Is The Average Of The Highest 1/10 Of The Wave Spectrum.
Synopsis..High pressure over the northern plains at 30.80 inches will move to the mid mississippi valley by Tuesday morning at 30.70 inches. The high will then drift across the ohio valley on Tuesday before moving to the mid atlantic by Wednesday. Lhz361-362-202115- lake huron from 5nm east of mackinac bridge to presque isle lt beyond 5 nm off shore- lake huron from presque isle light to sturgeon point mi beyond 5nm off shore- 938 am est Mon jan 20 2020
Rest of today..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Waves 4 to 6 feet.
Tonight..West winds 15 to 20 knots. Waves 4 to 6 feet.
Tuesday..West winds 15 to 20 knots. Waves 4 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 8 feet.
Tuesday night..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Waves 4 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 8 feet.
Wednesday..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots decreasing to 10 to 15 knots late in the evening. A chance of rain and snow. Waves 5 to 7 feet. Waves occasionally around 10 feet.
Thursday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming south 5 to 10 knots until early evening...then backing to the southeast in the late evening and early morning. A chance of rain and snow. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet until early morning.
Friday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming east 10 to 15 knots. A chance of rain and snow. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet in the late evening and early morning.
LHZ362


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Harrisville, MI
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location: 44.99, -82.16     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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FXUS63 KAPX 201424 AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 924 AM EST Mon Jan 20 2020

UPDATE. Issued at 920 AM EST Mon Jan 20 2020

Despite a very shallow convective layer (sub 3kft on local 12z sounding) and complete dearth of synoptic moisture contribution, inversion top temperatures right in the prime dendritic growth region is enticing quite a bit of shallow lake response . as evident by widespread clouds and flurries in the favored snow belt regions. Expect a slow downward trend in these clouds and flurries heading through this afternoon as diurnal mixing increases. Otherwise, near normal high temperatures expected with afternoon readings in the 20s.

NEAR TERM. (Today through Tonight) Issued at 321 AM EST Mon Jan 20 2020

. Relatively quiet .

High Impact Weather Potential: Minimal. Some light lake effect snow nw lower and eastern upper MI.

Chilly high pressure sprawls across the central and northern plains. The incoming airmass remains very dry, especially at low levels. N to nnw low-level flow continues to produce lake-induced clouds and flurries in nw lower MI, where the effective Superior/Michigan fetch is longest. The shorter fetch into ne lower MI isn't producing any clouds at all over land, though a streamer does begin offshore of Thunder Bay. The above is resulting in some massive temperature spreads early this morning, with a number of places east of I-75 in single digits below zero, while the nw lower MI coastline is in the low-mid 20s.

The high will move steadily se, toward the mid MS Valley. The 850mb thermal trof ahead of the high is overhead, with -14/-15C air at 850mb. We will gradually warm on nw-erly flow thru the forecast, gaining about 2C today and another 3-4C tonight. This is with winds slowly backing, to nw today and wnw tonight. Light lake effect snow showers will migrate gradually eastward into parts of n central lower MI, and will also push back into parts of eastern upper MI (noting that there is already a stray streamer over CIU). This should all be on the light side; perhaps some land-breeze- forced convergence can squeeze out a half-inch of snow this morning near mbL. There is also some mid-level moisture grazing that area this morning, associated with a vigorous but moisture- starved shortwave digging to our west.

Lake effect snow will gradually diminish thru today and this evening, thanks for warming 850mb temps and lowering inversion heights. There may be some potential for that transition to include some freezing drizzle; we don't normally see that historically, but we've managed it a few times this winter. Our near-surface temps look to be a little too cold for that. For now will not explicitly include in the forecast, though the best chance for it will be this afternoon/evening as we get just a little warmer.

Cloud cover today will mostly reflect current trends, with considerably more clouds west of I-75 than east, in both peninsulas. Some possibility for decreasing clouds late today near TVC/MBL, as better stratocu lifts toward CVX/GLR. Cloud cover will decrease somewhat tonight, with partly cloudy to mostly clear skies across the area.

Max temps today mainly in the mid 20s. Min temps low-mid teens, but some locally colder readings can certainly be expected.

SHORT TERM. (Tuesday through Wednesday) Issued at 439 AM EST Mon Jan 20 2020

. Precipitation Chances Start to Return Wednesday .

High Impact Weather Potential . Light snow accumulation for eastern Upper Michigan by late Wednesday

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast . Quiet weather is expected across eastern Upper and northern Lower MI for Tuesday as surface high pressure and upper-level ridging slide across the Great Lakes. Temperatures will be about where they should be for mid-January, with readings topping out in the 20s.

Forecast area will begin to be impacted by a relatively weak and poorly phased northern/southern stream short wave by Wednesday. While the best dynamics with this will be north/south of the region, with the stronger part of the northern/southern stream waves respectively, the disturbances will push a weak surface boundary toward the area. Decent moisture return & isentropic upglide ahead of the boundary will result in the return of a precipitation risk by later Wednesday over eastern Upper and a portion of northern Lower (mainly northwest 1/3). Most of the precipitation should fall in the form of snow, although with most locations expected to top out in the mid 30s for highs, some change over to rain is possible. Forecast soundings also suggest a localized risk of freezing drizzle as ice in the clouds may be lacking at times. However, confidence in this occurring, especially with the limited areal extent anticipated, precludes mention at this time. The snow that does fall may result in a light accumulation across eastern Upper.

LONG TERM. (Wednesday night through Sunday) Issued at 439 AM EST Mon Jan 20 2020

High Impact Weather Potential . Limited risk at this time, but potential late week system will need to be monitored.

An extended period of precipitation risk will linger into the weekend. This will initially be with the nearly stalled frontal boundary that will first impact the region on Wednesday. Main precipitation risk with the boundary in the area remains snow, but rain can't be ruled out given the relatively mild thermal profiles.

A cutoff upper-level low is forecast to develop over the central Plains by Thursday or Thursday night. This disturbance, and associated surface low, is forecast to drift slowly east or northeast with time. This could result in an enhanced risk of precipitation across the forecast area by Friday into Saturday. However, model agreement is the explicit timing/track of this system is not very good. Some solutions have the precipitation with this system staying entirely south of the region. We'll need to watch trends with this system closely the next few days. In any event, it looks like temperatures will be several degrees above normal through the end of the period, with daytime highs climbing near or above freezing.

AVIATION. (For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning) Issued at 639 AM EST Mon Jan 20 2020

Some MVFR cigs today, especially early.

Lake effect clouds and flurries have been expanding into nw and n central lower MI. These cigs are a mix of high-end MVFR to low-end VFR. These will persist early today, with some tendency for improvement this afternoon and tonight. Vsby restrictions will be much less common, but an occasional MVFR vsby in a flurry is possible today.

N to nw winds early today, backing to the nw to w this afternoon and tonight.

MARINE. Issued at 321 AM EST Mon Jan 20 2020

Northerly winds will back nw today, and toward the west tonight. Small craft advisory conditions are possible today near Presque Isle Lt on Lk Huron. Otherwise, we should be below criteria into early Tuesday. Winds/waves may increase enough to reach advisory criteria beginning Tue afternoon and carrying into at least Wednesday.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . NONE. LH . SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 8 PM EST this evening for LHZ347-348. LM . NONE. LS . NONE.

UPDATE . mb NEAR TERM . JZ SHORT TERM . PB LONG TERM . PB AVIATION . JZ MARINE . JZ


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
APNM4 - Alpena Harbor Light, MI 67 mi28 min NW 7 G 8 15°F
LPNM4 - Alpena, MI - 9075065 67 mi48 min NNW 5.1 G 7 13°F 1032.5 hPa (+1.1)10°F

Wind History for Alpena, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Alpena, Alpena County Regional Airport, MI75 mi54 minW 410.00 miOvercast12°F9°F87%1034.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KAPN

Wind History from APN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN11N14N16
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NW8NW5NW5NW5NW6CalmCalmNW3W3W4NW5CalmW3W4W5W5W5W4
1 day agoSE18
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SE7SE4CalmW4W8W7W8
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NW8NW7NW8NW7N9NW8NW10NW9NW7NW11N9NW10NW9
2 days agoS3S5SE3S8SE8SE9SE8S6S5CalmCalmSE6SE8SE9SE9SE10SE14
G25
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (10,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.