Sunrise 6:51 AM   Sunset 8:25 PM Moonrise 12:06 PM   Moonset 3:16 AM

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LMZ323 Grand Traverse Bay South Of A Line Grand Traverse Light To Norwood Mi- 406 Am Edt Tue Apr 16 2024
.gale warning in effect from this evening through Wednesday morning - .
Today - Light winds becoming east 10 to 15 knots in the morning. Sunny early in the morning then becoming mostly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less. Tonight - East wind 15 to 25 knots with gusts to around 40 knots. Rain and slight chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 2 to 4 feet. Wednesday - Southeast wind 15 to 25 knots with gusts to around 35 knots. Rain showers. Waves 2 to 4 feet. Wednesday night - South wind 10 to 15 knots. Rain showers likely. Waves 2 feet or less.
winds and waves higher in the vicinity of Thunderstorms.
see the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.

LMZ300
No data

FXUS63 KAPX 161029 AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 629 AM EDT Tue Apr 16 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Elevated fire danger in place this afternoon.

- Rain, strong winds return tonight.

- Convective showers/embedded thunderstorms and gusty winds continue Wednesday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Pattern Synopsis:

Strong troughing continues to eject over the Great Plains early this morning and will quickly progress across the Midwest into tonight, pushing amplified ridging over the Great Lakes and east of the region by the end of the period. Forcing aloft provided by aformentioned troughing will support an associated surface cyclone that will begin to work across the central Great Plains this afternoon and evening.

Forecast Details:

Elevated fire danger today: Sunny skies and mild temperatures are in store for northern Michigan today, especially across areas around and south of Grand Traverse Bay where highs look to climb into the mid to upper 60s. East winds will become increasingly strong today into tonight, gusting to 20-30 mph by mid afternoon/evening.
Efficient daytime mixing will lead to minimum relative humidity values between 20-25% for most of interior northern Michigan this afternoon. With these conditions combining with dry fuels from recent lack of rainfall, elevated fire danger will be in place for interior northern Michigan -- particularly for areas along and west of I-75 -- this afternoon.

Rain, strong winds return tonight: Rain and associated cloud cover will begin to move in from the southwest this evening and tonight as the aforementioned system works closer to the Great Lakes. Best rain chances for northern Michigan will come after midnight. While not necessarily expected, a few rumbles of thunder cannot be ruled out entirely overnight. Winds will also continue to pick up overnight, gusting as high as 35-50 mph into Wednesday morning. Isolated power outages may be possible.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
Pattern Synopsis and Forecast:

Midlevel split flow pattern across North America with weak shortwave ridging over the eastern half of the CONUS and closed low pressure with associated troughing over the Rockies. Surface high pressure and quiet weather over the Great Lakes region is quickly replaced by a weak cyclone associated with the aformentioned closed low over the Rockies at the start of the forecast period.

Showers and thunderstorms will persist mainly into Wednesday evening as the toughing pattern begins to weaken and progress northward, eventually drying things out across the CWA A secondary midlevel trough currently over the northern Pacific grows and settles over Manitoba, leaving the Great Lakes region in troughing for the rest of the long term period. Weather remains unimpactful this weekend into early next week, but lingering bits of low level moisture could bring showers from time to time accompanied by temperatures cooler than normal for late April.

Primary Forecast Concerns/Key Messages:

Convective showers/embedded thunderstorms with gusty winds expected this Wednesday: Main focus for the long term forecast is the first half as surface low pressure pushes its way through the region on Wednesday, while weakening. The warm sector is set to remain south of the CWA, keeping most rainfall during the afternoon and evening hours associated with the occluded front.
QPF will remain pretty uneven due to the convective nature of showers. Latest convective guidance keeps a general quarter to one inch for most areas by 12Z Thursday as the core of the low is depicted to move through the straights. Wind gusts also remain a concern this Wednesday ahead of the low passage with veering winds in the teens gusting to gale force for areas near the straits.

Chances of precipitation decrease as we head towards Friday and weak midlevel troughing pattern takes over the region. Lingering showers remain possible, but relatively unimpactful weather is expected at this time. Drier conditions favored later this weekend accompanied by cooler than normal temperatures, but too early to tell if favorable wildfire chances for the end of April across the CWA

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
VFR conditions are expected across northern Michigan TAF sites today into this evening. Winds will gradually increase out of the east today, becoming around 10 kts with gusts near 20 kts during the afternoon. Strongest winds are expected to come towards the end of the issuance period with sustained winds of 15-20 kts with gusts to 25-40 kts. With strong winds just off the surface, LLWS will be possible at TAF sites late tonight into Wednesday morning.
Otherwise, rain and associated cloud cover will move in from southwest to northeast late this evening and tonight. MVFR CIGs are anticipated across all TAF sites by the end of the issuance period.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...Wind Advisory from midnight tonight to noon EDT Wednesday for MIZ016-017-020>022-025>028-031>033-097>099.
Wind Advisory from 2 AM to 5 PM EDT Wednesday for MIZ086>088- 095-096.
MARINE...Gale Warning from 11 PM this evening to 8 PM EDT Wednesday for LHZ345>347.
Gale Warning from 2 AM to 11 AM EDT Wednesday for LHZ348-349.
Gale Warning from 11 PM this evening to 8 PM EDT Wednesday for LMZ341-342.
Gale Warning from 11 PM this evening to 11 AM EDT Wednesday for LMZ323-344>346.
Gale Warning from 2 AM to 8 PM EDT Wednesday for LSZ321-322.

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