Saturday, August24, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Suttons Bay, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:52AMSunset 8:30PM Saturday August 24, 2019 8:10 PM EDT (00:10 UTC) Moonrise 12:00AMMoonset 2:56PM Illumination 30% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 24 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
LMZ323 Grand Traverse Bay South Of A Line Grand Traverse Light To Norwood Mi- 408 Pm Edt Sat Aug 24 2019
Through early evening..North wind 5 to 15 knots. Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tonight..Southeast wind 5 to 10 knots. Clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
Sunday..Southeast wind 5 to 10 knots. Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Sunday night..Southeast wind 5 to 10 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Monday..South wind 5 to 10 knots with gusts to around 25 knots. Chance of showers. Waves 2 feet or less. SEe the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.
LMZ323 Expires:201908250415;;149948 FZUS53 KAPX 242008 NSHAPX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Gaylord MI 408 PM EDT Sat Aug 24 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lakes Huron... Michigan and Superior. Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LMZ323-250415-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Suttons Bay, MI
   Hourly   EDIT   Help
location: 44.99, -85.64     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
      (on/off)   Help   NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
Fxus63 kapx 242341
afdapx
area forecast discussion
national weather service gaylord mi
741 pm edt Sat aug 24 2019

Near term (through tonight)
issued at 345 pm edt Sat aug 24 2019

Quiet and cool again tonight...

high impact weather potential: minimal. Some fog status possible
overnight.

Pattern synopsis forecast: afternoon analysis reveals a sharp
short-wave ridge axis from the midwest up through the far western
great lakes, part of a pseudo omega block pattern across the
region. Strong surface high pressure is centered just northeast of
state with easterly flow cycling cool dry air through the region.

We have seen some heating of the day CU develop across inland
areas, although overall sunny mostly sunny skies are the rule.

Primary forecast concerns: overnight lows and fog stratus
potential.

Sharp short-wave ridge and surface high pressure will edge off to
the east tonight while our low level flow veers southeasterly and
increases just a bit. Heating of the day CU fades early this
evening leading to clear skies and another good radiational
cooling setup. That said, moderating low level temperatures and the
slight increase in low level flow may counteract radiational
cooling to some degree particularly across the western part of the
forecast area. So for tonight... I have the coolest overnight lows
across interior eastern upper and northeast lower michigan with
those areas dipping into the upper 30s to lower 40s while
acknowledging that we will probably have a few spots dip into the
middle 30s once again (atlanta, mio, etc).

Fog stratus: given our afternoon min dewpoints (crossover temps)
of 45 to 50, anticipated lows and a decoupled boundary layer,
some fog seems reasonable, especially across eastern upper and ne
lower michigan where the lowest temps are anticipated. Eventual low
level SE warm moist flow off lake huron overtop a cool boundary
layer may add to the fog or even stratus potential. Will see. But
i have added patchy-areas of fog to the forecast as well as some
increasing cloud cover (stratus) toward morning.

Short term (Sunday through Tuesday)
issued at 345 pm edt Sat aug 24 2019

A better chance for rain on Monday night Tuesday?...

high impact weather potential... Thunder possible Monday evening.

Pattern synopsis forecast... High pressure over the upper great lakes
begins to slip east, allowing the return flow to move into the
state. Winds will increase as the pressure gradient tightens. This
will lead to stronger winds near the straits, initially, but then
spread across the region Monday afternoon, as the warm front passes
through lower michigan. Rain showers are expected in the afternoon,
but the main precipitation comes in Monday evening (after 00z tue)
as a 500 mb shortwave moves into the region with the front. The cold
front and the sfc trough, associated with the sfc low move through
by 12z Tue bringing rain showers, and maybe some thunder. The rain
looks to clear out by Tuesday afternoon as some shortwave ridging
and dry air quickly noses into the region.

Primary forecast concerns... This could be the best chance for rain
that we have seen in a while. However, as we have seen in the past
few weeks, the models have been having trouble with the frontal
passages. However, this looks to be more a concerted effort for the
500 mb low and jet to sink into N plains and the upper great lakes.

Since we are beginning to head into the fall season, this does look
to be more a fall type system. The 850 mb temperatures associated
with this system(upstream) are in the mid single digits so there is
better certainty with this system.

Long term (Tuesday night through Saturday)
issued at 345 pm edt Sat aug 24 2019
high impact weather potential... Minimal
extended (Tuesday evening through Saturday)... After the brief warm
up for early part of the week, as the we get into the middle of the
week, there is a cooling trend with the long wave pattern. A decent
500 mb low drops south into NW ontario, just west of james bay, on
Tuesday night, which looks to brings with it 850 mb temperatures that
are sub +5c. As that air and the sfc low moves into lake superior,
+6c +7c air moves over lake michigan and its +21c water
temperatures. We may be looking at le rain possibilities for
Wednesday and Wednesday night, before high pressure and dry air
Thursday move in. However, there are some timing issues with the gfs
and ECMWF so that small rain chances continue through Thursday and
Friday. Friday night and Saturday, high pressure builds into the
region and it looks like it dries out again.

Aviation (for the 00z tafs through 00z Sunday evening)
issued at 741 pm edt Sat aug 24 2019
ifr fog at pln apn overnight.

High pressure will slowly move east from the eastern lakes, but
will continue to extend ridging into northern mi. Our wx will
remain quiet. Only really concern is for any fog stratus late
tonight. Fog appears most likely at apn pln, near the
moistening influence of lk huron. Ifr conditions expected at times
late tonight and early Sunday morning. OtherwiseVFR.

Light winds tonight, a bit of a SE breeze Sunday.

Marine
Issued at 345 pm edt Sat aug 24 2019
light winds and waves anticipated tonight. Some SE gustiness
develops on Sunday and it might be enough to consider small craft
advisories up through the straits. But stronger flow comes on
Monday and it appears that small crafts will be needed for many
nearshore areas at that time.

Weather-wise, quiet tonight through Sunday night. Shower chances
return Monday.

Apx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lh... None.

Lm... None.

Ls... None.

Near term... Ba
short term... Jl
long term... Jl
aviation... Jz
marine... Ba


Weather Reporting Stations
   EDIT       (on/off)   Help   NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map
Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
45183 10 mi40 min NE 14 G 16 68°F 68°F1025.9 hPa
GTLM4 - Grand Traverse Light, MI 16 mi89 min NE 12 G 14 68°F 1025.1 hPa
45022 41 mi40 min NE 9.7 G 14 70°F 69°F1 ft1025.3 hPa53°F
45002 - N MICHIGAN- Halfway between North Manitou and Washington Islands. 48 mi40 min NE 5.8 G 7.8 67°F 71°F1025.2 hPa50°F
MEEM4 - Manistee Harbor, MI 63 mi90 min N 11 G 14 69°F 1026.1 hPa
FPTM4 - Fairport, MI 69 mi90 min SE 2.9 G 4.1 67°F 1024.7 hPa

Wind History for Port Inland, MI
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
Last
24hr
N6
G10
N3
N4
N4
N3
N4
N5
N4
N5
N3
N6
N6
N4
N6
--
SE2
S4
S5
S5
S5
S5
S5
SE5
SE3
1 day
ago
NW7
G12
N4
N4
NW5
NW6
NW4
NW4
N6
G9
N5
N7
N7
N5
N5
N6
G10
N7
G11
N9
G12
N5
G12
NE7
G10
N4
G8
N7
G10
N8
G12
N7
G11
N6
G11
N6
G11
2 days
ago
N8
G13
N5
N5
G8
N5
NW6
NW3
G7
NW3
G6
NW3
N5
N4
NW5
NW4
NW4
G7
N6
NW6
G9
N7
G11
N4
G8
N6
G9
N8
G13
N8
G11
NW9
G16
N11
G14
N10
G15
NW7
G13

Airport Reports
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help   Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.
AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Cherry Capital Airport, MI18 mi77 minNNE 10 G 1710.00 miA Few Clouds71°F54°F55%1024.3 hPa
Bellaire, Antrim County Airport, MI23 mi51 minNNE 410.00 miFair72°F52°F52%1024.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KTVC

Wind History from TVC (wind in knots)
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
Last 24hrN8N5N4--------CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE3CalmSW5NE6NE8N6N7
G14
N7NE8
G16
NE11NE10
G17
1 day agoN7N4------Calm--Calm--CalmCalmCalmS3--NE5NE5NE85N8NE10N8N10N10N8
2 days agoNW8N7
G17
N6--N7N9--N5SW3--CalmCalmCalmW4N10N7
G15
N7N10NE11
G16
N8
G17
N9
G17
NE9N10
G14
N7

Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT   Weekend mode (on/off)   (on/off)   Help
Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT      (on/off)   Help
Weather Map and Satellite Images
       (on/off)   HelpWeather Map
wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (20,4,5,8)
      (on/off)   Help

Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
   (on/off)   Help
weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Ad by Google

Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.