Marine Weather and Tides
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
|Sunrise 7:23AM||Sunset 8:04PM||Sunday March 29, 2020 1:34 PM EDT (17:34 UTC)||Moonrise 9:12AM||Moonset 12:00AM||Illumination 31%|
7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Suttons Bay, MIHourly EDIT Help
Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI  (on/off)  Help NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
FXUS63 KAPX 291558 AFDAPX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 1158 AM EDT Sun Mar 29 2020
UPDATE. Issued at 1157 AM EDT Sun Mar 29 2020
15Z composite analysis reveals stacked low pressure system over Green Bay. Attending occluded boundary arcs across the tip of the mitt to a triple point near Saginaw Bay and cold front that continues down through eastern Ohio. Associated rainfall ahead of the front has exited to the north and east before wrapping back westward to around the Duluth/western U.P. area. A second area of more widespread precip is rotating/sliding across eastern Wisconsin under the upper low/short-wave center with shower activity now materializing across NW Lower Michigan ahead of the upper low.
Rest of the day: No big surprises/changes to the going forecast. Stacked low will track across the tip of the mitt/Straits region as the short-wave circulation tracks through northern Lower Michigan. Shower coverage will continue to increase across the region as a result, especially after adding a little sunshine/ modest destabilization under the upper low to the mix.
Otherwise, temperatures will top out in the early afternoon before starting to trail back down with cooler air/showers.
NEAR TERM. (Today through Tonight) Issued at 325 AM EDT Sun Mar 29 2020
. Wet weather continues .
High impact weather potential: Minimal.
Pattern synopsis/forecast: All eyes directed at deep and mature low pressure making steady northeast progress across Iowa early this morning. Warm front extends east from this low, just now entering southwest lower Michigan, with a trailing cold front extending just a bit further southwest. Deep layer moisture advection spurred along by 50+ knot low level jet driving band of showers, some at times rather heavy, across northern Michigan this past evening and early overnight. Even experiencing a few isolated thunderstorms, but so far these have largely behaved (just enhancing rain rates). Mid level dry tongue rotating around this low already punching into Wisconsin and northern Illinois . set to spread across much of northern lower Michigan a bit later this morning. A relatively mild night, with current readings ranging from the upper 30s to upper 40s.
Low pressure will gradually fill/weaken as it further occludes on its journey across northern Michigan today, further weakening as it reaches southeast Ontario by Monday morning. While main moist/warm conveyor belt will quickly push off to our east this morning, plenty of "wrap around" moisture, cyclonic flow, and weak waves traversing around parent system will keep the threat for additional showers right through tonight.
Primary forecast concerns/challenges: Temporal and spatial resolution of light showers. Addressing potential for these showers to mix with or change to snow tonight.
Details: While heaviest showers will quickly exit east this morning as upstream dry slot moves across, expect additional lighter showers to overspread the region today as low pressure cuts across upper Michigan. Most persistent showers expected across northwest lower and eastern upper Michigan where low level convergence is maximized. Showers continue into tonight, become more scattered with time as moisture depth decreases and main dynamics push further off to our east. Despite impressive look of low pressure, system has no direct connection to any real cold air (removed from northern stream flow), with only weak cold air advection expected to kick in later today and tonight. Surface based melting layer remains substantial until perhaps later this evening, keeping showers of the liquid variety. May see showers mix with, or even change over, to snow (especially across the higher interior areas) later this evening/overnight, but with little, if any, accumulation. Additional rainfall amounts through tonight will mostly remain under a quarter of an inch. A mild day today, with temperatures spiking into the 50s across a good portion of northern lower Michigan by early this afternoon, with readings just a bit cooler near Lake Michigan and across eastern upper. Temperatures begin to slowly fall during the afternoon as that weak cold air advection commences. Clouds and gusty northwest winds tonight will keep temperatures from falling too much, only reaching the lower and middle 30s by sunrise Monday.
SHORT TERM. (Monday through Tuesday) Issued at 325 AM EDT Sun Mar 29 2020
. A Cool Start to the Week .
High Impact Weather Potential . There could be a mix of rain and snow or all snow, Monday morning, especially in the highlands. Possibly making a slippery morning commute.
Pattern Synopsis/Forecast . Monday morning, the snow or rain/snow mix, depending on where you are will continue, but should begin to diminish as we head into the day. The temperatures are expected to warm into the mid 30s by 14z/Mon taking the precipitation back toward all rain, before ending by the afternoon. Some of the models, especially the CAMs are beginning to show something akin to LES in the afternoon, but that seems unlikely, as the water temperatures are around 1 to 3 C and the 850 mb temperatures are around -4 or -5C. We should be in subsidence, so would expect that some drizzle down stream would be possible, but the overall idea expected would be drying. The models do have some spokes of energy rotating around the 500 mb low back into the Upper Great Lakes on Tuesday. However, Tuesday night the 500 mb low is backing into the Upper Great Lakes, but this sharpens the shortwave ridging upstream in Wisconsin, so the models dry things out. Will have to watch this closer, but think that it will remain dry.
Primary Forecast Concerns . Again, looking at the soil temperatures, the ground cools back to 32F, so there could be slippery spots with any snow that falls in the interior of N Lower, and some places in E Upper.
Winds should begin to diminish sometime Monday afternoon.
LONG TERM. (Tuesday night through Saturday) Issued at 325 AM EDT Sun Mar 29 2020
High Impact Weather Potential . Thunder Saturday?
Extended (Wednesday through Saturday) . The models threw a curve at us this morning. As mentioned in the previous section, the 500 mb low near New England, began to back into the Upper Great Lakes Tuesday, but by Wednesday morning, it was moving east again, while the 500 mb west in the Canadian Rockies stalls. This allows the ridge between them so amplify, into what is looking like an Omega block. The National Blend of Models looks like it is a little slow to catch onto this, so have lowered the pops for Thursday through early Saturday as the front is slow to move into the Upper Great Lakes. Saturday itself looks like a cold front would move through the region and bringing showers, and maybe some thunder. Based on tonight's performance of the thunder, I'll wait until things either look good or we actually have some thunder.
If the ridge builds, then I think the temperatures are also suspect, and too low. If the models are right, and the cloud cover is the same on Thursday and Friday, we could be warmer than 50 over the forecast area.
AVIATION. (For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning) Issued at 737 AM EDT Sun Mar 29 2020
At least some minor improvement expected across the taf sites this morning as dry slot pivots overhead. Cigs crash again later this morning and afternoon/evening to MVFR and IFR with the return of deeper moisture. Showers will accompany this moisture, becoming fairly widespread again this afternoon and evening. IFR conditions look to continue much of the overnight.
MARINE. Issued at 325 AM EDT Sun Mar 29 2020
Southeast winds swing around to southwest today as low pressure moves across upper Michigan. Wind gusts will be maximized across portions of Lake Michigan and Lake Huron, where small craft conditions will continue. Winds become northwest and remain a bit gusty across all the big waters tonight into Monday before becoming more northerly and subsiding Monday night. Additional showers expected today and tonight, with conditions gradually drying out Monday.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . LAKESHORE FLOOD ADVISORY until noon EDT today for MIZ088-096-097. LH . SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until noon EDT today for LHZ345>347. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until midnight EDT tonight for LHZ348-349. LM . SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 6 PM EDT Monday for LMZ323-341-342- 344>346. LS . SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until noon EDT today for LSZ322. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 6 PM EDT Monday for LSZ321.
UPDATE . BA NEAR TERM . mb SHORT TERM . JL LONG TERM . JL AVIATION . mb MARINE . mb
Weather Reporting StationsEDIT (on/off)  Help NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map
|Stations||Dist||Age||Wind||Air Temp||Water Temp||Waves||Pressure||DewPt|
|GTLM4 - Grand Traverse Light, MI||16 mi||55 min||WSW 5.1 G 8.9||46°F||995.9 hPa|
|MEEM4 - Manistee Harbor, MI||63 mi||55 min||S 8.9 G 24||43°F||997.3 hPa|
|FPTM4 - Fairport, MI||69 mi||55 min||S 2.9 G 8.9||41°F||993.9 hPa|
Wind History for Port Inland, MI(wind in knots) EDIT (on/off)  Help
Airport ReportsEDIT (on/off)  Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.
|Cherry Capital Airport, MI||18 mi||42 min||SW 11 G 21||4.00 mi||Light Rain||49°F||43°F||80%||995.4 hPa|
|Bellaire, Antrim County Airport, MI||23 mi||40 min||WSW 6||7.00 mi||Rain||48°F||45°F||89%||995.6 hPa|
Link to 5 minute data for KTVC
Wind History from TVC (wind in knots)
|1 day ago||N||NE||NE||N||N||N||W||Calm||Calm||Calm||Calm||Calm||Calm||SE||Calm||E||NE||N||N||SE||SE|
|2 days ago||NE||N||N||NE||NE||Calm||Calm||N||Calm||Calm||NE||NE||Calm||E||N||E||Calm||Calm||SE||S||E||N |
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GEOS Local Image of EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific Contential US Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (13,3,4,5)(on/off)  Help
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