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LMZ344 Sleeping Bear Point To Grand Traverse Light Mi- Point Betsie To Sleeping Bear Point Mi- 1019 Am Est Fri Dec 1 2023
Today..Northeast wind 10 to 15 knots. Partly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tonight..Northeast wind 5 to 10 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday..East wind 10 to 15 knots. Partly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday night..East wind 5 to 10 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
see the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.

LMZ300
No data

FXUS63 KAPX 011518 AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 1018 AM EST Fri Dec 1 2023

UPDATE
Issued at 1018 AM EST Fri Dec 1 2023

Inherited forecast remains on track so far today with central MI precip shield as far north as Gratiot to Saginaw County as of 10 AM. Slow northward progression expected through the remainder of the day into tonight. For further details, see the near-term discussion below.

NEAR TERM
(Today through Tonight)
Issued at 332 AM EST Fri Dec 1 2023

High Impact Weather Potential: Slick spots possible this morning, accumulating snow chances south of M-72 tonight.

Pattern Synopsis:

A compact shortwave/vorticity max currently centered over the Kansas/Missouri border will quickly lift over the southern Great Lakes this morning. Favorable forcing provided by this feature aloft will outrace the associated surface cyclone, becoming more displaced through the day. In turn, this surface cyclone will gradually weaken with time as it treks across the southern Great Lakes tonight into Saturday morning.

Forecast Details:

Lingering fog in the presence of sub-freezing temperatures across parts of interior northern Michigan may lead to slick spots on some area roadways into mid-morning. Otherwise, The primary focus of the period will be chances for accumulating snowfall south of M-72 after sunset this evening into Saturday morning. Temperatures look to warm into the mid to upper 30s for most areas this afternoon as the aforementioned system works closer to the region. Precipitation is expected to stay south of the CWA during the day until weak frontogenetic forcing sets up across mid-Michigan this evening.
While aforementioned weakening of the system will help limit snowfall amounts and associated impacts, a swath of around 1-2" is expected within a snowband that looks to set up across the middle of the lower peninsula. There is still relatively high uncertainty in where exactly this band will set up and whether highest snowfall amounts will come across southern parts of our CWA or across northern portions of GRR/DTX CWAs. Regardless, the best chances for snowfall amounts of 1" or more for our CWA currently lie south of M- 72 across Roscommon, Ogemaw, and northern Gladwin counties. High-end snowfall chances across our southern tier of counties looks to be capped around 2-3". Forecast soundings display saturated profiles between 0C and -10C in the lowest 2-3km, which will make for a heavier, wet snow. Snow accumulations may lead to slippery roads during the morning commute Saturday morning.

SHORT TERM
(Saturday through Sunday)
Issued at 332 AM EST Fri Dec 1 2023

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: Low for now.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST:

Longwave troughing digging into the southwestern US...aided by strong upstream flow off the Pacific. Potent PV maxima has ejected from the desert SW, intensifying with time as it makes its way into the southern/central Plains. Attendant surface system with this is, as of 0z/01, complicated/messy...but generalized low pressure over OK/TX with a warm front over the Lower MS Valley...and a cold front stretching northeastward into the OH Valley -- the same cold front that dropped through our region last evening. Strong return flow off the Gulf into this boundary aiding in deep, moist convection over the Lower MS Valley; some high clouds already seeping northeastward into southern Lower along this as well. Behind this front...northwesterly flow prevails, particularly behind a second BCZ that outlines the perimeter of the trough aloft from Saskatchewan to Lake Superior and back up into central Quebec...with 988mb surface low over Hudson Bay as a reflection of the upper low aloft. At least a couple distinct niblets trekking down this flow through Manitoba...as confluence aloft and generally quiet weather prevail over northern Michigan in between these two features.

Energy over the central Plains expected to eject northeastward along the boundary into the OH Valley today into tonight...as aforementioned energy over the SW US moves inland as well. This should buckle the boundary back northward Saturday, perhaps into our area, keeping the potential for drizzle-y/dreary conditions over the region for the first part of the weekend, especially near Lake Huron where some nuisance lake effect could develop. This next batch of energy quickly approaches Saturday night, bringing our next round of active weather to the region Sunday in the form of another surface low, currently expected to track through the OH Valley as well along the lingering SW-NE(ish) boundary...which should bring rain and snow chances back to the area
However
with this last feature...there are some timing/track differences that have yet to be ironed out, and may ultimately relate to how the BCZ evolves between then and now...which could throw a bit of a wrench into the p-type forecast for Sunday.

Primary Forecast Concerns: Precip Saturday night into Sunday

Next round of precip currently expected to arrive Sunday morning, probably closer to 9-12z, though not impossible we could start to see the northern edge after midnight in our SW CWA. Think thermal profiles are more supportive of snow than rain during the day, especially over the interior, though a better shot at primarily rain is currently expected toward Saginaw Bay, as there is potential the warm front may lift into that region
For now
this does not look like an overly impressive snow event, as some probabilistic guidance currently suggests a 25-35 percent chance of greater than 2 inches of snow over the interior higher terrain of northern Lower, which, given the warmer thermal profiles, is more likely, as SLRs shouldn't be too dramatic. This will make it a bit more of a wet, dense, slushy-type snow, which comes with its own set of impacts.
Still...noting some potential for weaker stability in the region, and some potential for a trowal with this system...not impossible we could end up with more snow/QPF than currently expected.
Additionally, there are some signals for lake enhancement off Lake Huron with the easterly flow...which may need to be watched as well.

Other sticky wicket with Sunday's forecast is that there is some uncertainty in the low track, potentially dependent on how tonight's system evolves and where it leaves its boundary
For now
looks as though the main surface low may track across southern Lower, which, from a conceptual standpoint, would be a more favorable position for our area to receive accumulating synoptic snowfall with this system.
A further north shift in the track would increase potential for rainfall, while a southerly shift in the track could shift things more toward snow...or even diminish how much falls, if the better forcing were to end up too far south.

LONG TERM
(Sunday night through Thursday)
Issued at 332 AM EST Fri Dec 1 2023

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: Minimal for now.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST:

Longwave trough axis looks to move into the Upper Midwest for Monday...keeping generalized surface troughiness over the region, and potentially perpetuating lake effect chances if it ends up cold enough...if not even keeping some deeper moisture present for more widespread precipitation. Fast moving flow will send another clipper- type system into the Plains for Tuesday, though there is some uncertainty in where/how this will evolve. Amplified upstream ridging should try to slide in Wednesday...though as we remain in northwest flow aloft, suspect lake aggregate troughing will keep things at least slightly unsettled here in northern Michigan. Our next punch of energy tries to ride the ridge Wednesday night into Thursday...though there is, attm, quite a bit of uncertainty in how the pattern evolves by mid/late week...namely, how quickly upstream troughing dips into the US (and where). If this trough ends up moving through a little quicker and settles in a little further east...we could begin to see impacts from this as early as the end of the period
Otherwise
we may have to wait till the end of next week for impacts, if it is slower and further west
Even so
think that there is a shot at seeing somewhat milder temps late in the period, particularly if the ridge axis does end up over us.

AVIATION
(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 642 AM EST Fri Dec 1 2023

Aside from lingering FG/BR at mbL, VFR conditions are expected across northern Michigan TAF sites into tonight. High cloud will gradually spread from south to north as a system works closer to the Great Lakes, eventually bringing snow chances to southern portions of the forecast area this evening and tonight. Drops to MVFR CIGs are expected later tonight across mbL, TVC, and APN as aforementioned light snow and associated low clouds work overhead.
Otherwise, east-northeast winds of 5-10 kts are anticipated through the majority of the issuance period.



MARINE
Issued at 332 AM EST Fri Dec 1 2023

Winds and waves look to stay below small craft advisory criteria today. Weak winds this morning will gradually strengthen out of the northeast into this afternoon and evening. Marginal small craft winds and waves will be possible over some Lake Huron nearshore zones Saturday morning and afternoon.



APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

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