Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Leland, MI

UPDATE
Issued at 950 AM EDT Mon May 12 2025

Little cloud cover over northern MI this morning, except for a bit of stratocu and mid-clouds near the Sault. The most northerly clouds from the upper low well to our south is encroaching on far southern lower MI. This will reach southern areas late in the day, but will not substantially impact diurnal heating. Temps are already in the 50s north, 60s to near 70f south, and climbing quickly. Warmest day of the year so far is ahead, 70s north and 80s south. Coastal locales cooler; light southerly winds will not be strong enough to prevent lake breezes from charging inland.

Fire wx: very, very dry today, with min RH levels in the interior similar to yesterday in the low-mid teens. (Already have CAD/Frankfort below 25 percent at 935 am.) Winds will be manageable, with peak gusts around 20 mph this afternoon.
Reached out to the DNR, and they are fine maintaining /elevated fire danger/ wording and nothing further.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Issued at 247 AM EDT Mon May 12 2025

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Mid-upper-level ridging exists atop the Great Lakes region today through much of tonight. Closed upper level low pressure and attendant surface reflection currently sit near LA/MS, which is progged to make slow northeastward progress to the TN Valley by late tonight. While the local airmass will remain very dry through the day today, moisture return does begin to materialize later tonight.

Forecast Details: Somewhat of a rinse and repeat of yesterday across much of northern Michigan, albeit with warmer/summer-like temperatures for many. Lots of sunshine with just some high clouds arriving from south to north mid-afternoon onwards. High temperatures today in the low-mid 80s away from the shorelines of northern lower. Primarily 70s for the eastern U.P. and the beaches.
Minimum relative humidities expected to fall again back into the teens for inland areas. South-southeast winds sustained near 10 mph with occasional gusts to 20 mph will lead to another elevated fire danger day.

Moisture does slowly increase this evening and overnight evidenced by dew points climbing into the 40s and eventually the 50s by sunrise Tuesday. PWs progged to climb to near 1.5" through this time frame as well. Despite this increase in moisture, still plenty of low-mid level dry air expected to be around to fight off the vast majority of incoming shower chances after 06z in far southern reaches of the forecast area. Did include some very low PoPs near/south of M-55 for a rogue sprinkle or light shower. Tonight's lows in the 40s north and through the 50s for northern lower.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Issued at 247 AM EDT Mon May 12 2025

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast:

A cut off low pressure system to our south will track northward and influence most of the weather through the period. Scattered to isolated showers arrive Tuesday with isolated rain chances holding on through the week... a significant shortwave trough tracking from the west and into the Midwest for Thursday could bring strong to severe storms to the area Thursday night into Friday. Guidance continues to substantially increase dewpoints, supply modest instability, and steepen lapse rates with this system leading to the aformentioned potential strong storms. The same threats of mainly damaging winds and possible large hail look to be the primary hazards with any storms that could fire up in the advertised environment. Definitely something to watch in the coming days.
Otherwise, a weak ridge builds overhead late in the weekend, providing a brief break in showers Saturday night/ Sunday with another low pressure system following a similar track to its predecessor bringing shower chances early next week.

High temperatures Tuesday look reach the 70s with a warming trend into the 80s by mid-week. Temperatures cool Friday heading into the weekend as the aformentioned first low influences the region.
Overnight lows look to remain generally in the 50s/ 60s through mid- week, then look to drop to the 30s/40s Friday night through the weekend.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
Issued at 535 AM EDT Mon May 12 2025

VFR through the TAF period with an increase in high clouds mid-late afternoon onward, eventually trending lower toward mid-cloud tonight. South-southeast winds AOB 10 kts with occasionally higher gusts today with afternoon inland penetrating lake breezes.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
MARINE...None.