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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Leland, MI

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Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 030734 AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 234 AM EST Wed Mar 3 2021

NEAR TERM. (Today through Tonight) Issued at 232 AM EST Wed Mar 3 2021

High impact weather potential: None.

Pattern synopsis/forecast:

Fast moving zonal flow found across the northern Conus, including the Great Lakes region, early this morning. Weak area of low pressure tied to dampening shortwave trough racing east into western Quebec, with all attendant precipitation well removed to our northeast. Weak cold front extending back west from this low is dropping southeast across Lake Superior. No precipitation along this front, a product of very weak forcing and limited moisture across the northern Lakes. Our area remains in the "warm" sector, with seasonably mild conditions, with current readings still mostly in the 30s.

Upper level pattern begins to go through an amplification process today and tonight, with ridging building across the Intermountain West and High Plains, with troughing becoming increasingly estabilished across northeast NOAM. Flow becomes northwest across our area between these features, bringing bit cooler conditions tonight through the end of the week.

Primary forecast concerns/challenges:

Temperature and cloud trends through tonight.

Details:

Lake Superior cold front will continue to drop southeast, crossing the area this morning. Weak forcing and very limited moisture will result in a dry frontal passage. However, will likely see an uptick in clouds this morning into early this afternoon with post-frontal cooling boundary layer, with the development of mixing likely resulting in some scattering out of clouds this afternoon. Despite the passing front, initial shot of cool air is limited, and given expected mixing up to H8 level, supports highs in the middle 30s to lower 40s. Cool air continues to filter into the area tonight as upper level flow amplifies further. While the low level thermal environment becomes just cold enough to entice the development of a some lake clouds, extremely shallow convective depths and very dry conditions should negate any lake snows. Definitely a bit cooler tonight, with lows ranging from the single digits across eastern upper Michigan, and from the teens to lower 20s across northern lower.

SHORT TERM. (Thursday through Friday) Issued at 232 AM EST Wed Mar 3 2021

. Will there be any Precipitation? Probably Not (Part 2).

High Impact Weather Potential . Minimal.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast and possible impacts . Thursday, looks dry as the initial push of dry air and weak baroclinicity looks to keep the precipitation out of the region through 12z/Fri. Friday, a weak speed max at 500 mb and the weak baroclinicity come together to maybe produce a flurry. The GFS has better moisture in the lower levels while the ECMWF and NAM are have little in the wave of moisture in the lower levels. The SREF has a bit more toward the middle between the GFS and NAM. Will continue to hedge to the ECMWF/NAM idea, but won't discount (probably a 10% chance of a flurry) a few flakes. The baroclinicity looks to sharpen up, but to the east of the forecast area, so the region should remain dry through 12z/Sat.

LONG TERM. (Friday night through Tuesday) Issued at 232 AM EST Wed Mar 3 2021

High Impact Weather Potential . Minimal.

Extended (Saturday through Tuesday) . Saturday, the 500 mb ridge begins to build into the region, as the 500 mb low to the east grudgingly moves east (at least on the ECMWF), taking with it any of the vort lobes rotating around it. The GFS shows the low staying in the Canadian Maritimes, and continues to lob a shortwave or two at the Upper Great Lakes with the backdoor cold front feature pushing -12c 850 mb air into the forecast area. Not sure if the ECMWF is too fast or the GFS is too slow. The pattern looks to be stalling. Will acknowledge that most if not all the region will be dry Saturday, but it is possible something could happen. Sunday, we warm advect and the sky looks to clear out as the 500 mb ridge pushes into the region. Sunday night, the models have a shortwave developing south into the state, before the longwave ridge moves back into the region. So maybe a snow shower? Monday, the "maybe a snow shower" continues for the day as the feature looks to slowly move through the state. Then the ridge builds into the region for Monday night. Tuesday, Models are showing a difference between the next 500 mb low to move through the CONUS. The ECMWF is slower and more developed, keeping Tuesday dry and the precipitation to the east. The GFS isn't as deep and the system becomes a bit more progressive, bringing precipitation to the forecast area by Tuesday afternoon and continuing on and off through Wednesday. Left the NBM chance pops in for Tuesday night.

AVIATION. (For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night) Issued at 1152 PM EST Tue Mar 2 2021

Surface low pressure continues to move E/SE through Lake Superior and SE Ontario with a sharp cold front extending back into the Upper Midwest. Surface low will weaken and advance into New England overnight with the cold front sagging down into northern Lower Michigan on Wednesday.

Earlier advertised axis of lower cloud cover south of the low and ahead of the front has so far not materialized . more in line with recent HRRR model guidance solutions which keeps cloud cover at bay until after FROPA on Wednesday. Thus, I've backed off on the development of MVFR cloud through tonight with just BKN MVFR/low VFR cloud cover on Wednesday.

Gustiness will diminish through tonight.

MARINE. Issued at 232 AM EST Wed Mar 3 2021

Passing cold front will swing winds around to the northwest today, with northwest to north winds continuing through Thursday. Increasingly unstable over-water conditions will bring small craft advisory conditions along some of the nearshore waters of both Lake Huron and Lake Michigan into tonight.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . NONE. LH . SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 4 AM EST Thursday for LHZ347-348. LM . SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 4 AM EST Thursday for LMZ344>346. LS . NONE.

NEAR TERM . mb SHORT TERM . JL LONG TERM . JL AVIATION . BA MARINE . mb

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Wind History for Port Inland, MI

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Cherry Capital Airport, MI	22 mi	49 min	S 3	7.00 mi	Fair	33°F	29°F	85%	1010.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KTVC

Wind History from TVC (wind in knots)

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