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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Leland, MI

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Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 140732 AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 332 AM EDT Fri Aug 14 2020

NEAR TERM. (Today through Tonight) Issued at 328 AM EDT Fri Aug 14 2020

Impactful weather: None.

Pattern synopsis and forecast:

An upper level weak shortwave/trough was over nrn Michigan early this morning, underneath overall ridging aloft, while at the sfc, we still had a ridge axis laid across the region, coming from a center of high pressure in Quebec. There was still some pockets of mid level clouds around nrn Michigan, but no precipitation. PWATs were greater across NW lower Michigan up to 1.25", while the relatively drier air (just under an inch PWAT) was across mainly the eastern CWA. Further upstream, larger scale upper troughing was across the eastern half of Canada and lee side of the nrn Rockies. A deeper moisture and instability channel was seen lifting up through the central and northern Plains ahead of this troughing, resulting in spotty areas of convection.

The sfc ridge axis is going to hold across the region today through much of tonight, while the weak upper level trough/shortwave lingers today, before ultimately getting sucked into the larger scale upper troughing that approaches by late tonight. Not expecting anything exciting per se as far as weather in nrn Michigan, but considering the late day shower/storm in the GTV Bay region yesterday, gotta consider this happening again today within lake breeze convergence expected in far NW lower this afternoon/early evening, especially with no apparent cap in place. Also, the approach of the larger scale trough late tonight, and MUCAPES growing to several hundred j/kg, are intriguing, but the LLJ/convergence is well north of us. All-in-all, a chance of seeing a shower or storm across primarily NW lower and eastern upper is small to say the least, but not impossible. The chance would be in far NW lower this afternoon and early this evening (maybe Gladwin/Arenac counties too from Lake breeze convergence off Saginaw Bay?), and late tonight into daybreak for eastern upper and mainly along and west of I75 in nrn lower. Confidence is pretty low and pretty much all areas are likely to see no precipitation.

Highs today will be in the middle to upper 80s most areas, slightly cooler lakeshores. Lows tonight will be in the upper 50s to the lower half of the 60s.

SHORT TERM. (Saturday through Sunday) Issued at 328 AM EDT Fri Aug 14 2020

High Impact Weather Potential: Thunderstorms/low-end severe threat Saturday afternoon/evening.

Pattern Synopsis:

An amplified shortwave will progress from Northern Lake Superior across Ontario Saturday as a blocking ridge centered over Quebec tries to hold firm. Additional troughing slides overhead on Sunday as this ridging exits towards the Atlantic. At the surface, a cyclone associated with the shortwave will deepen and trek across Ontario into Hudson Bay by Saturday, sweeping an attendant cold front down across the Great Lakes through Saturday night.

Forecast/Details:

Confidence has increased in the cold front swinging through the area Saturday afternoon/evening, which is faster than previous day's thoughts. Although low-level flow across the Great Lakes will be weak, southerlies will help bring a corridor of low/mid 60s dewpoints into northern Michigan by Saturday afternoon. Destabilization is expected shortly after noon with daytime heating through partly cloudy skies in the AM, resulting in instability of 1,000+ J/kg MLCAPE across interior northern lower ahead of the front. Forecast soundings show somewhat steep lapse rates for the region, especially in the low-levels, but meager shear will really hinder more serious severe potential. A severe storm or two can't be ruled out Saturday afternoon/evening: however, any stronger storms that develop will struggle to sustain themselves in an environment characterized by <25 kts 0-6km bulk shear and wind speeds aloft that struggle to reach higher than 20kts in the lowest 500mb. When strong updrafts/cells develop, the expectation is that most will quickly dump their cores before being able to produce hail sizes aloft large enough to reach the surface above severe criteria. Inverted-V near- surface profiles and near 600 J/kg DCAPE could help support some severe wind concerns, especially when stronger cells begin to dissipate. The front is expected to move through by Saturday night, ending any severe concerns at that time.

Uncertainty lies in rain potential on Sunday after the frontal passage brings low-level subsidence, despite upper-level support and weak lingering instability. Current confidence is relatively low in additional rain developing outside of eastern upper and the eastern half of the forecast area. Otherwise, highs near 80 drop down into the mid 70s on Sunday heading into a week of much cooler temps across norther Michigan as of late with sustained northwest winds behind the front.

LONG TERM. (Sunday night through Thursday) Issued at 328 AM EDT Fri Aug 14 2020

High Impact Weather Potential: None

Upper-level troughing is expected to encompass the area from the Great Lakes up into Hudson Bay at the start of the week while ridging dominates west of the Mississippi River. High pressure will continue to build into the region from the northern Great Plains underneath subsidence aloft provided at the ridge/trough inflection point. This, combined with low-level moisture being purged from the region over the weekend, will keep rain chances low through much of next week. No notable systems will result in relatively weak winds, thus delayed return flow/moisture return. However, cooler temps have their sights on northern Michigan through the long term. After the cold frontal passage over the weekend, afternoon highs look to drop down into the lower 70s through early next week and may not reach back into the 80s until the end of next week/next weekend. Some chillier overnight lows in the mid 40s could bring a slight taste of fall to the area.

AVIATION. (For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night) Issued at 1234 AM EDT Fri Aug 14 2020

High pressure will drift from Quebec into Nova Scotia today through tonight, while a sfc ridge axis continues to extend back through the Great Lakes. This will continue to provide a general easterly wind, but also variable in many areas. These easterly winds will tend more onshore again Friday afternoon for mbL, before going light SE Friday night. There will continue to be some mid level cloud floating around into Friday morning, associated with a disturbance aloft, while FEW-SCT cumulus will develop across mainly TVC/MBL, within lake breeze convergence areas. Would not expect any shower/storm development this afternoon/evening, but there were a couple of late day showers/storms yesterday east of mbL and south of TVC, so it's not out of the question. The approach of upper troughing late Friday night, with deepening moisture and elevated instability, could result in a few showers by daybreak Saturday in and around the NW lower airports. Confidence is too low to introduce anything to the forecasts.

MARINE. Issued at 328 AM EDT Fri Aug 14 2020

High pressure will drift from Quebec into Nova Scotia today through tonight, while a sfc ridge axis continues to extend back through the Great Lakes. This ridge axis will slide east Saturday through Saturday night, making way for a cold front to cross the region, bringing a decent chance for showers and thunderstorms. Winds will be below any advisory levels, as they switch from ESE/SE through much of Saturday, to out of the NW after the front passes. No wind or wave issues are foreseen.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . NONE. LH . NONE. LM . NONE. LS . NONE.

NEAR TERM . SMD SHORT TERM . DJC LONG TERM . DJC AVIATION . SMD MARINE . SMD

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
45183	5 mi	38 min	SSE 7.8 G 7.8	72°F	70°F	1 ft
GTLM4 - Grand Traverse Light, MI	17 mi	88 min	SSE 2.9 G 7	78°F			1019.6 hPa
45002 - N MICHIGAN- Halfway between North Manitou and Washington Islands.	41 mi	38 min	ESE 5.8 G 5.8	72°F	70°F		1018 hPa	70°F
MEEM4 - Manistee Harbor, MI	61 mi	28 min	ESE 5.1 G 8	68°F			1019.6 hPa
FPTM4 - Fairport, MI	63 mi	88 min	NE 6 G 8	67°F			1018.3 hPa

Wind History for Port Inland, MI

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Last 24hr

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Cherry Capital Airport, MI	22 mi	75 min	N 0	10.00 mi	Fair	69°F	61°F	76%	1018.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KTVC

Wind History from TVC (wind in knots)

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Weather Map

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Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (4,6,7,8)

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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI

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