Friday, August14, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Leland, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:42AMSunset 8:45PM Friday August 14, 2020 4:07 AM EDT (08:07 UTC) Moonrise 12:53AMMoonset 4:46PM Illumination 21% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 25 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ344 Sleeping Bear Point To Grand Traverse Light Mi- 1009 Pm Edt Thu Aug 13 2020
Overnight..Southeast wind 5 to 10 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday..East wind 5 to 10 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday night..Southeast wind 10 to 15 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday..Southwest wind 5 to 10 knots. Chance of showers. Waves 2 feet or less. SEe the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.
LMZ344 Expires:202008141015;;414734 FZUS53 KAPX 140209 NSHAPX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Gaylord MI 1009 PM EDT Thu Aug 13 2020 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lakes Huron... Michigan and Superior. Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LMZ344-141015-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Leland, MI
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location: 45.02, -85.76     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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FXUS63 KAPX 140732 AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 332 AM EDT Fri Aug 14 2020

NEAR TERM. (Today through Tonight) Issued at 328 AM EDT Fri Aug 14 2020

Impactful weather: None.

Pattern synopsis and forecast:

An upper level weak shortwave/trough was over nrn Michigan early this morning, underneath overall ridging aloft, while at the sfc, we still had a ridge axis laid across the region, coming from a center of high pressure in Quebec. There was still some pockets of mid level clouds around nrn Michigan, but no precipitation. PWATs were greater across NW lower Michigan up to 1.25", while the relatively drier air (just under an inch PWAT) was across mainly the eastern CWA. Further upstream, larger scale upper troughing was across the eastern half of Canada and lee side of the nrn Rockies. A deeper moisture and instability channel was seen lifting up through the central and northern Plains ahead of this troughing, resulting in spotty areas of convection.

The sfc ridge axis is going to hold across the region today through much of tonight, while the weak upper level trough/shortwave lingers today, before ultimately getting sucked into the larger scale upper troughing that approaches by late tonight. Not expecting anything exciting per se as far as weather in nrn Michigan, but considering the late day shower/storm in the GTV Bay region yesterday, gotta consider this happening again today within lake breeze convergence expected in far NW lower this afternoon/early evening, especially with no apparent cap in place. Also, the approach of the larger scale trough late tonight, and MUCAPES growing to several hundred j/kg, are intriguing, but the LLJ/convergence is well north of us. All-in-all, a chance of seeing a shower or storm across primarily NW lower and eastern upper is small to say the least, but not impossible. The chance would be in far NW lower this afternoon and early this evening (maybe Gladwin/Arenac counties too from Lake breeze convergence off Saginaw Bay?), and late tonight into daybreak for eastern upper and mainly along and west of I75 in nrn lower. Confidence is pretty low and pretty much all areas are likely to see no precipitation.

Highs today will be in the middle to upper 80s most areas, slightly cooler lakeshores. Lows tonight will be in the upper 50s to the lower half of the 60s.

SHORT TERM. (Saturday through Sunday) Issued at 328 AM EDT Fri Aug 14 2020

High Impact Weather Potential: Thunderstorms/low-end severe threat Saturday afternoon/evening.

Pattern Synopsis:

An amplified shortwave will progress from Northern Lake Superior across Ontario Saturday as a blocking ridge centered over Quebec tries to hold firm. Additional troughing slides overhead on Sunday as this ridging exits towards the Atlantic. At the surface, a cyclone associated with the shortwave will deepen and trek across Ontario into Hudson Bay by Saturday, sweeping an attendant cold front down across the Great Lakes through Saturday night.

Forecast/Details:

Confidence has increased in the cold front swinging through the area Saturday afternoon/evening, which is faster than previous day's thoughts. Although low-level flow across the Great Lakes will be weak, southerlies will help bring a corridor of low/mid 60s dewpoints into northern Michigan by Saturday afternoon. Destabilization is expected shortly after noon with daytime heating through partly cloudy skies in the AM, resulting in instability of 1,000+ J/kg MLCAPE across interior northern lower ahead of the front. Forecast soundings show somewhat steep lapse rates for the region, especially in the low-levels, but meager shear will really hinder more serious severe potential. A severe storm or two can't be ruled out Saturday afternoon/evening: however, any stronger storms that develop will struggle to sustain themselves in an environment characterized by <25 kts 0-6km bulk shear and wind speeds aloft that struggle to reach higher than 20kts in the lowest 500mb. When strong updrafts/cells develop, the expectation is that most will quickly dump their cores before being able to produce hail sizes aloft large enough to reach the surface above severe criteria. Inverted-V near- surface profiles and near 600 J/kg DCAPE could help support some severe wind concerns, especially when stronger cells begin to dissipate. The front is expected to move through by Saturday night, ending any severe concerns at that time.

Uncertainty lies in rain potential on Sunday after the frontal passage brings low-level subsidence, despite upper-level support and weak lingering instability. Current confidence is relatively low in additional rain developing outside of eastern upper and the eastern half of the forecast area. Otherwise, highs near 80 drop down into the mid 70s on Sunday heading into a week of much cooler temps across norther Michigan as of late with sustained northwest winds behind the front.

LONG TERM. (Sunday night through Thursday) Issued at 328 AM EDT Fri Aug 14 2020

High Impact Weather Potential: None

Upper-level troughing is expected to encompass the area from the Great Lakes up into Hudson Bay at the start of the week while ridging dominates west of the Mississippi River. High pressure will continue to build into the region from the northern Great Plains underneath subsidence aloft provided at the ridge/trough inflection point. This, combined with low-level moisture being purged from the region over the weekend, will keep rain chances low through much of next week. No notable systems will result in relatively weak winds, thus delayed return flow/moisture return. However, cooler temps have their sights on northern Michigan through the long term. After the cold frontal passage over the weekend, afternoon highs look to drop down into the lower 70s through early next week and may not reach back into the 80s until the end of next week/next weekend. Some chillier overnight lows in the mid 40s could bring a slight taste of fall to the area.

AVIATION. (For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night) Issued at 1234 AM EDT Fri Aug 14 2020

High pressure will drift from Quebec into Nova Scotia today through tonight, while a sfc ridge axis continues to extend back through the Great Lakes. This will continue to provide a general easterly wind, but also variable in many areas. These easterly winds will tend more onshore again Friday afternoon for mbL, before going light SE Friday night. There will continue to be some mid level cloud floating around into Friday morning, associated with a disturbance aloft, while FEW-SCT cumulus will develop across mainly TVC/MBL, within lake breeze convergence areas. Would not expect any shower/storm development this afternoon/evening, but there were a couple of late day showers/storms yesterday east of mbL and south of TVC, so it's not out of the question. The approach of upper troughing late Friday night, with deepening moisture and elevated instability, could result in a few showers by daybreak Saturday in and around the NW lower airports. Confidence is too low to introduce anything to the forecasts.

MARINE. Issued at 328 AM EDT Fri Aug 14 2020

High pressure will drift from Quebec into Nova Scotia today through tonight, while a sfc ridge axis continues to extend back through the Great Lakes. This ridge axis will slide east Saturday through Saturday night, making way for a cold front to cross the region, bringing a decent chance for showers and thunderstorms. Winds will be below any advisory levels, as they switch from ESE/SE through much of Saturday, to out of the NW after the front passes. No wind or wave issues are foreseen.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . NONE. LH . NONE. LM . NONE. LS . NONE.

NEAR TERM . SMD SHORT TERM . DJC LONG TERM . DJC AVIATION . SMD MARINE . SMD


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
45183 5 mi38 min SSE 7.8 G 7.8 72°F 70°F1 ft
GTLM4 - Grand Traverse Light, MI 17 mi88 min SSE 2.9 G 7 78°F 1019.6 hPa
45002 - N MICHIGAN- Halfway between North Manitou and Washington Islands. 41 mi38 min ESE 5.8 G 5.8 72°F 70°F1018 hPa70°F
MEEM4 - Manistee Harbor, MI 61 mi28 min ESE 5.1 G 8 68°F 1019.6 hPa
FPTM4 - Fairport, MI 63 mi88 min NE 6 G 8 67°F 1018.3 hPa

Wind History for Port Inland, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Cherry Capital Airport, MI22 mi75 minN 010.00 miFair69°F61°F76%1018.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KTVC

Wind History from TVC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmS3S3N5NE5NE4N6NE5N5N6NW7N3N5NE5NE6NW4CalmCalmCalmCalmE3CalmCalm
1 day agoCalmSW3SW3W3S5SW4CalmS533CalmNE7NE10NE7NE11NE7N3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoNW5CalmS4S4W8W5W7W8NW11NW10
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.