Marine Forecasts

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Leland, MI

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Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI

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Fxus63 kapx 210222 afdapx area forecast discussion national weather service gaylord mi 1022 pm edt Tue aug 20 2019 Update Issued at 1022 pm edt Tue aug 20 2019 evening composite analysis reveals baggy surface low pressure across the western great lakes into the central plains. Surface cold front is just upstream... North of lake superior and wrapping down through western wisconsin. A pronounced moisture gradient is evident across northern-central michigan back into central wisconsin with surface dewpoints in the mid 60s to near 70 south of m-72 and middle 50s to the north (dewpoints briefly dipped into the 40s in the tip of the mitt this afternoon). So despite cooling temperatures, SPC mesoanalysis still shows 500-1500 j kg mlcape across our S SE counties as of this hour. Further south, convectively induced short-wave and attendant area of showers storms continue to roll through southern SE michigan this evening, the northern end of an ongoing linear MCS that has traversed through the midwest into the ohio valley over the last 12 to 18 hours. Not much happening this far north other than thicker mid and high cloud cover skirting through the E SE parts of the forecast area associated with the downstate activity, as well as some fog already popping up behind the clearing line. Rest of tonight: first off, given the lingering instability across our S SE counties, I cannot completely rule out the possibility of a stray shower popping in those areas through the rest of tonight. But given the lack of any forcing mechanisms, will not put any explicit precip in the forecast... Just have "silent" pops so to speak. Meanwhile, upstream cold front and leading edge of significantly cooler air will slide down through the u.P. Overnight and down through northern lower michigan on Wednesday. Will see another chance for a few showers or perhaps just some drizzle across eastern upper michigan along the front (forecast soundings exhibit more of a drizzle look than anything with a saturated layer from the surface to 700 mb). Finally, patchy to areas of fog is a good bet especially for areas south of m-72 where that higher dewpoint air resides. I've added that to the forecast as well. On Wednesday, surface front will cross down through northern lower michigan... The beginning of a fairly substantial cool-down for the latter half of the week. Will probably see a round of showers along ahead of the front particularly across the SE part of the forecast area. Made some tweaks to the forecast there as well. Near term (through tonight) issued at 252 pm edt Tue aug 20 2019 high impact weather potential... Minimal pattern synopsis forecast... Morning MCS mcvs have been moving outside of the forecast area, and are beginning to diminish over the region. One is along the mississippi river, near lacrosse, wi and is quickly falling apart. The other is leaving the chicago area and heading across "michiana." the debris clouds from both of these system has set up high clouds over most of the state, and looks to have put a stop to the mixing, so far, that would drop our dewpoints this afternoon. The dewpoint lack of dewpoint drop this afternoon, may have implications tonight. A warm front is cutting across S lower, with rain showers breaking out along the front, from saginaw bay to about benton harbor. Believe that the front should have gotten north of m-55, except for the cloud debris keeping the temperatures artificially down through the day. As the MCS in the chicago area moves into michigan, it will continue to suppress the warm front from moving north much. The cloud debris looks to suppress the temperatures, so that we don't mix into the really dry air. Primary forecast concerns... This brings us to our forecast concerns. The main concern is the possibility for moisture trapped near the sfc with the decaying MCS to the west and moving into the region as light showers spotty drizzle. The forecast concern this morning was what would the dry air do to the possible drizzle. Now with the somewhat higher dewpoints this afternoon, it seems like that we added to the spotty drizzle so that it becomes patchy to areas of drizzle, especially south of m-72 and west of us-131. It could reach further east, but once we get past 12z wed, then the temperature should be warming and the drizzle and low cloud should begin to lift. With that, there is a possibility that fog is an issue. Have left the fog out for now, but the chances seem like they could start rising with the dewpoints starting higher than they were. Short term (Wednesday through Friday) issued at 252 pm edt Tue aug 20 2019 high impact weather: minimal a positive-tilt trough will dig into the great lakes Wednesday as a

speed MAX rounds its axis before progressing east into new england towards the end of the week. At the surface, a cyclone is expected to develop and deepen in SE ontario underneath favorable divergence lift provided in the exit region of the trough and will move into quebec by the end of the forecast period. Surface high pressure will build across south-central canada northern great plains in a region of subsidence aloft behind the passing trough. This ridging makes its way into the great lakes by Friday. Somewhat amplified flow provided between the aforementioned surface features should funnel cooler, dryer air into the forecast area for the end of the workweek. With this, below average temperatures are expected both Thursday and Friday with continued caa. On Thursday, high temperatures may only reach into the mid to upper-60s for many across northern michigan while it warms up a few degrees on Friday, getting into the lower-70s. This is well below the average highs in the upper 70s for this time of year. Low temps those nights are expected to reach down into the low to mid-40s, perhaps the upper 30s for some with clear skies allowing for strong radiational cooling and a lack near-surface mixing due to weak surface winds overnight Thursday and Friday. Winds are expected to be strongest Wednesday with gusts of 15-20mph with stronger gusts likely over lake huron. Additionally, the combination of relatively cool air coupled with continued caa, lack of moisture, and subsidence aloft should hinder precip chances over the forecast period. Long term (Friday night through Tuesday) issued at 252 pm edt Tue aug 20 2019 impactful weather: next main precip chances early next week an amplified ridge is expected to be centered over the great lakes e canada to begin the period with surface high pressure across the region underneath. This ridge moves east over the weekend as a shortwave trough is expected to progress into the region in the late Sunday early Monday timeframe. The evolution timing of this feature appears to be the main focus of the extended period. Latest model guidance hints at a cyclone developing deepening in south-central canada underneath divergence provided by the shortwave aloft, along with WAA from enhanced southerly flow. While large uncertainty still exists at this range, the next main precip chances for the forecast area appear to be accompanied with this system, especially with a cold front associated with the cyclone moving through. Confidence in specific rain storm chances will increase with time. Otherwise, temperatures are expected to warm back up into the upper-70s and low- 80s over the weekend and into early next week as low-level flow becomes more southerly, aiding warm air and moisture return. Aviation (for the 00z tafs through 00z Wednesday evening) issued at 839 pm edt Tue aug 20 2019 baggy low pressure is across the western great lakes this evening with an upstream cold front north of lake superior down into northwest wisconsin. Showers and some storms continue to slide through southern SE lower michigan this evening with thicker mid and high cloud cover skirting up through northern lower michigan. But otherwise,VFR weather will largely be the rule for much of tonight. That said, could be some patchy to areas of fog developing later on that may produce some MVFR conditions. Cold front will swing through the region early Wednesday morning bringing lower (MVFR and possible ifr) cigs. Front may trigger some showers later in the morning and afternoon primarily across ne lower michigan. But cooler and drier air spreads into the region behind the front on gustier NW winds... Returning the terminal sites toVFR during the afternoon. Marine Issued at 252 pm edt Tue aug 20 2019 tonight through Thursday... Overnight, the winds will slowly increase, once the cold front moves through. However, after the cold front moves through the winds will increase on the great lakes, especially north of beaver island on lake michigan, northern lake huron, and whitefish bay, where small craft advisories are likely. The small craft will continue into Wednesday night, before high pressure builds into the region, and slackening the pressure gradient, diminishing the winds. Apx watches warnings advisories Mi... None. Lh... None. Lm... None. Ls... None. Update... Ba near term... Jl short term... Mr long term... Mr aviation... Ba marine... Jl

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
45183	5 mi	53 min	SSE 3.9 G 3.9	71°F	70°F		1014.5 hPa
GTLM4 - Grand Traverse Light, MI	17 mi	73 min	WSW 2.9 G 2.9	65°F			1012.2 hPa
45002 - N MICHIGAN- Halfway between North Manitou and Washington Islands.	41 mi	33 min	SSW 3.9 G 5.8	70°F	70°F		1012.9 hPa	67°F
45022	45 mi	23 min	SSW 3.9 G 5.8	69°F	70°F	1 ft	1014.1 hPa	64°F
MEEM4 - Manistee Harbor, MI	61 mi	73 min	S 1.9 G 9.9	71°F			1014.9 hPa
FPTM4 - Fairport, MI	63 mi	73 min	E 1 G 5.1	71°F			1012.5 hPa

Wind History for Port Inland, MI

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Cherry Capital Airport, MI	22 mi	60 min	N 0	10.00 mi	Partly Cloudy	68°F	62°F	81%	1012.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KTVC

Wind History from TVC (wind in knots)

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Weather Map and Satellite Images

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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East

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Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (22,6,7,8)

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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI

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Disclaimer: The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.