Marine Forecasts

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Leland, MI

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Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 161116 AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 616 AM EST Mon Dec 16 2019

NEAR TERM. (Today through Tonight) Issued at 223 AM EST Mon Dec 16 2019

Impactful weather: Minimal/None.

Pattern synopsis and forecast:

Fairly zonal flow was in place aloft early this morning, but a shortwave and associated sfc low and cold front were pressing ESE from Ontario. This weak low and front had some modest forcing from WAA and DPVA, but moisture was more on the limited side, and was only producing light snow and flurries on a synoptic scale. A long fetch of WSW winds across Lake Superior, and more than sufficient overlake instability, was however, resulting in decent lake effect or enhanced snow, into srn portions of Ontario. Despite low level WAA ahead of the front in nrn Michigan, we still had more than enough overlake instability to produce some periodic light snow and flurries in the WSW flow regimes, but it was pretty much insignificant due to a shallow and dry convective BL.

The aforementioned shortwave and cold front will cross nrn Michigan through the day, with just some minimal/weakening forcing expected. Fcst soundings do suggest however, that their may be enough of an uptick in the remnant/current WSW flow lake effect, to call slightly more than flurries. Inversion heights look to rise to near 4kft, which is still rather shallow. Thus, a pretty quiet day, especially away from the WSW snowbelts, where there is likely to be some decent sunshine expected (more so this afternoon, after some mid and upper clouds depart). Winds do turn out of the west tonight, with maybe some flurries in nrn lower, north of M-32, and in and around Paradise and WhiteFish Point in Chippewa county of eastern upper. However, fcst soundings show increasingly harsher conditions for any lake effect.

Rather unimpressive and quiet weather for the next 24 hrs.

High temperatures will mostly be in the low to mid 20s. Lows tonight will mainly be in the 5F-10F range in eastern upper, to the largely the 10F-15F range in nrn lower.

SHORT TERM. (Tuesday through Wednesday) Issued at 210 AM EST Mon Dec 16 2019

High Impact Weather Potential: Moderate

. Accumulating Lake Effect Tuesday night into Wednesday .

Synopsis/Forecast: A cold arctic blast is set to arrive Tuesday night through Wednesday. The wave responsible for this is just now coming onshore off the Arctic Ocean into nrn Northwest territories. This will spin up a surface low on the central Saskatchewan/Manitoba border Monday. The upper level wave drops south through Manitoba/Ontario toward the Great Lakes, with the associated surface low skimming by just north of Lakes Superior and Huron, dragging an Arctic front over the region.

Details: A relatively quiet start to Tuesday as a weak ridge of high pressure extends from the Central Mississippi Valley over our region into Ern Ontario. The atmosphere is fairly dry from the midlevels up, so only cloudy conditions expected for nrn Lower early on. Southwest flow may spread some light lake effect potential into portions of the U.P. in the morning. Surface ridging quickly weakens and shunts eastward through the morning. Then the aformentioned low drops southeast through srn Ontario, dragging an Arctic front across the UP as it does so. Ahead of this front an area of light synoptic snow may break out in the afternoon. Overlake instability increases through Tuesday afternoon/evening, and this will combine with increasing inversion heights and midlevel moisture (most notable in the midlevels ahead of the approaching front). By the evening, inversion heights climb to 5500 ft with max omega squarely over the DGZ and unidirectional BL winds. As the nights wears on CAA behind the cold front pushes much of forecast profiles out of the DGZ. This combined with the DGZ rooted at the surface will allow for decreasing flake size, especially by the morning. Think the best chance for the heaviest lake effect will be a few hours either side of midnight.

Lake effect continues through Wednesday morning before slowly diminishing in intensity through the afternoon. Even though the core of extreme cold air misses us just to the north, suitable conditions remain for some lake effect to continue straight through Wednesday evening into the overnight hours. Total accumulations look to be between 3 and 6 inches for most, with locally higher amounts under any more persistent bands.

Winds: Northwest winds ramp up Tuesday evening between the departing low (as it starts to move toward nrn Lake Ontario) and the incoming surface high sliding through the upper Mississippi Valley. Gusts could easily reach into the low or mid 20s overnight, especially near the coasts.

Temperatures: After Tuesday's highs in the mid 20s for most, temperatures plummet overnight as the Arctic airmass moves in. Overnight lows range from near zero in ern Upper to the mid teens near Saginaw Bay. Temperatures barely rebound on Wednesday as CAA continues. Then as the surface high passes directly overhead Wednesday night lows drop into the mid single digits above/below zero: the lowest readings of the week.

LONG TERM. (Wednesday night through Sunday) Issued at 210 AM EST Mon Dec 16 2019

High Impact Weather: Minimal

The end of the week sees temperatures and heights rebounding. The Surface high quickly pushes southeast allowing us to get into some return flow. On Friday another system moves out of the central High Plains toward lake Superior, bringing additional lake effect chances during the beginning of the weekend. Transient high pressure in the latter half of the weekend is quickly replaced by another system early next week, which models vary widely on at the moment. Overall no major storms or big snow accumulations with temperatures near to slightly above normal.

AVIATION. (For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning) Issued at 615 AM EST Mon Dec 16 2019

Pretty quiet weather over the TAF period. A weak cold front will gradually cross nrn Michigan today, with marginal overlake instability and low level winds shifting from WSW to WNW, resulting in the chance of light snow or flurries across the NW lower airports this afternoon through this evening. No restrictions on VSBY expected attm. VFR CIGS will fall back into MVFR later today into this evening. Expect those westerly winds to be a little gusty this afternoon at PLN/TVC.

MARINE. Issued at 210 AM EST Mon Dec 16 2019

WSW winds were ramping back up early this morning, in advance of low pressure and a cold front moving through Ontario. This front will cross nrn Michigan through today. Speeds are expected to reach advisory levels by daybreak across Lake Michigan and Whitefish Bay, with most all nearshore waters seeing those speeds during the day today. The pressure gradient loosens somewhat through tonight, before tightening back up Tuesday, and especially Tuesday night, behind the passage of a strong cold front.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . NONE. LH . SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 6 PM EST this evening for LHZ345>348. LM . SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 6 PM EST this evening for LMZ323-341- 342-344>346. LS . SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 6 PM EST this evening for LSZ321-322.

NEAR TERM . SMD SHORT TERM . STJ LONG TERM . STJ AVIATION . SMD MARINE . SMD

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
GTLM4 - Grand Traverse Light, MI	17 mi	72 min	WSW 14 G 19	28°F			1020.3 hPa
MEEM4 - Manistee Harbor, MI	61 mi	72 min	W 8.9 G 12	25°F			1022.4 hPa
FPTM4 - Fairport, MI	63 mi	72 min	W 12 G 16	22°F			1019 hPa

Wind History for Port Inland, MI

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Cherry Capital Airport, MI	22 mi	59 min	SSW 3	10.00 mi	Mostly Cloudy	21°F	15°F	78%	1021.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KTVC

Wind History from TVC (wind in knots)

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Weather Map

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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East

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Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (7,2,3,4)

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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI

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