Marine Forecasts

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Leland, MI

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Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 160937 AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 537 AM EDT Fri Apr 16 2021

NEAR TERM. (Today through Tonight) Issued at 303 AM EDT Fri Apr 16 2021

Impactful weather: None.

Pattern synopsis and forecast:

Deep low pressure was over the NE states early this morning, while another upper trough was seen back across the Rockies/lee of the Rockies. Nrn Michigan was between these two features, with a cool low level moisture-laden BL, resulting in fairly widespread clouds. Patchy/areas of drizzle/mist continue, aided by orographic lift into the higher terrain. This is really the only forcing out there, as upper jet dynamics, theta-e advection and DPVA all resided with the the upper trough/deep low pressure. There was some deeper moisture wrapping around the backside of the NE states deep low pressure with a batch of precipitation rotating toward Lake Huron.

The deep upper low will slowly work off into the Atlantic today and tonight, and a tighter pressure gradient settles into the region, bringing some lower end gustiness in NW winds today. The Rockies upper trough will work into the central Plains, but the system forcing will all remain SW. The batch of precipitation moving toward Lake Huron is not expected to make it into nrn Michigan, but the patchy/areas of drizzle/mist are likely to continue into the daylight hours.

High temperatures will be in the middle and upper 40s for eastern upper and much of NW lower, with the lower half of the 50s in NE lower, aided by downsloping winds. Lows tonight will be 30F to 35F.

SHORT TERM. (Saturday through Sunday) Issued at 303 AM EDT Fri Apr 16 2021

. Slowly Moderating Temperatures .

High impact weather: None is expected.

Primary forecast concerns/challenges: Temperatures and cloud cover.

Fairly uneventful weather is expected over the weekend with slowly warming temperatures. However, there are a few things to keep an eye on for Saturday with the nearly cutoff upper low over New England inching off to the northeast, another trough moving by to our south and yet another trough dropping down from the north. These three factors will likely lead to a decent amount of cloud cover across northern Michigan during the day Saturday. Model soundings indicate that moisture will be trapped below a fairly strong but shallow 3000 foot surface based inversion. A nearly zonal flow aloft then develops heading into Sunday which should lead to less clouds. Temperatures are expected to remain a few degrees below normal Saturday (lowered blended guidance numbers) then approach normal by Sunday afternoon.

LONG TERM. (Sunday night through Thursday) Issued at 303 AM EDT Fri Apr 16 2021

. Turning Chilly Again .

High impact weather potential: None is expected.

A northern stream trough and an associated surface cold front will move into the region Monday likely resulting in a round of rain showers. Extended models remain bullish on another shot of unseasonably chilly air which follows the front and holds through midweek. Upper troughing and the cold air aloft may produce some rain or even snow showers from Monday night into Tuesday, possibly lingering into Wednesday. Highs Monday at or slightly above normal then forecast highs will be several degrees below normal through midweek. Milder readings look to return for later in the week.

AVIATION. (For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning) Issued at 536 AM EDT Fri Apr 16 2021

Deep low pressure will spin off into the Atlantic today, while a tighter pressure gradient slides into the region today, which is expected to bring lower end gusty NW winds. Deep cyclonic flow combined with ample low level moisture will continue to result in MVFR/IFR CIGS for the entire TAF period, with some late afternoon and evening clearing for the NW lower airports.

MARINE. Issued at 303 AM EDT Fri Apr 16 2021

Deep low pressure will spin off into the Atlantic today, while a tighter pressure gradient and slight overlake instability lead to numerous advisories in the nearshore waters today into this evening. Higher pressure and lighter winds will then gradually fill in over the weekend. No precipitation expected.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . NONE. LH . SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 8 PM EDT this evening for LHZ347-348. LM . SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 3 PM EDT this afternoon for LMZ344>346. LS . SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 8 PM EDT this evening for LSZ321-322.

NEAR TERM . SMD SHORT TERM . AS LONG TERM . AS AVIATION . SMD MARINE . SMD

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
GTLM4 - Grand Traverse Light, MI	17 mi	23 min	N 9.9 G 13	39°F			1015.2 hPa
MEEM4 - Manistee Harbor, MI	61 mi	23 min	N 14 G 16	38°F			1016.3 hPa
FPTM4 - Fairport, MI	63 mi	23 min	N 7 G 12	33°F

Wind History for Port Inland, MI

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Last 24hr

1 day ago

2 days ago

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Cherry Capital Airport, MI	22 mi	70 min	NNW 8 G 17	4.00 mi	Light Rain Fog/Mist	36°F	34°F	93%	1015 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KTVC

Wind History from TVC (wind in knots)

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NW9 G24

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