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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Glen Arbor, MI

June 24, 2024 3:37 PM CDT (20:37 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 5:06 AM   Sunset 8:39 PM
Moonrise 11:12 PM   Moonset 7:24 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

Marine Forecasts
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LMZ364 Expires:202406250330;;595210 Fzus63 Kmkx 241946 Glflm
open lake forecast for lake michigan national weather service milwaukee/sullivan wi 246 pm cdt Mon jun 24 2024
for waters beyond five nautical miles of shore on lake michigan.
waves are provided as a range of significant wave heights, which is the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave, along with the average height of the highest 10% of the waves which will occasionally be encountered.

Synopsis -
modest south winds will develop this evening, becoming breezy late tonight into Tuesday morning as low pressure around 29.2 inches moves across northern ontario. A line of Thunderstorms with very gusty winds will move across lake michigan late tonight through early Tuesday morning. West winds on Tuesday will then shift to northerly on Wednesday following the passage of a cold front. High pressure of 30.0 inches will move across the lake Wednesday night through Friday morning, bringing pleasant weather.
lmz261-362-364-366-563-565-567-868-250330- lake michigan from seul choix point to rock island passage 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan south of a line from seul choix point to the mackinac bridge and north of a line from charlevoix mi to south fox island 5 nm offshore- lake michigan from charlevoix to point betsie mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from point betsie to manistee mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from rock island passage to sturgeon bay wi- lake michigan from sturgeon bay to two rivers wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from two rivers to sheboygan wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from pentwater to manistee mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- 246 pm cdt Mon jun 24 2024
sheboygan wi to pentwater mi north - .

Tonight - South winds 10 to 15 kt increasing to 30 kt. Showers and Thunderstorms overnight. Waves 1 to 3 ft building to 4 to 6 ft occasionally to 8 ft.

Tuesday - South winds 15 to 25 kt becoming southwest 10 to 20 kt. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning. Waves 4 to 6 ft occasionally to 8 ft subsiding to 3 to 5 ft.

Tuesday night - West winds 10 to 20 kt veering to north. Waves 2 to 4 ft subsiding to 1 to 3 ft.

Wednesday - North winds 10 to 20 kt increasing to 15 to 25 kt. Waves 2 to 4 ft.

Wednesday night - North winds 10 to 20 kt diminishing to 10 to 15 kt. Waves 2 to 4 ft subsiding to 1 to 2 ft.

Thursday - North winds 5 to 10 kt backing to southwest 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.

Thursday night - South winds 5 to 10 kt becoming southeast 10 to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.

Friday - South winds 15 to 25 kt. Chance of showers. Waves 3 to 5 ft building to 4 to 6 ft occasionally to 8 ft.

Saturday - Southwest winds 10 to 20 kt becoming west 15 to 25 kt. Waves 3 to 5 ft.

LMZ300
No data


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Glen Arbor, MI
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Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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FXUS63 KAPX 241918 AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 318 PM EDT Mon Jun 24 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Watching the potential for some strong thunderstorms later tonight into Tuesday.

- Additional chances of active weather return this weekend.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
Issued at 307 PM EDT Mon Jun 24 2024

Pattern Synopsis/Pattern Forecast:

Mid/upper level ridge in the process of building east across the area early this afternoon as its surface reflection pushes off into the northern Ohio Valley. Attendant dry air and deep layer subsidence resulting in one downright pleasant early summer day across the Northwoods, with sun-filled skies and temperatures recovering up to near normal levels in the 70s and lower 80s.

Rather rapid changes set to take place overnight into Tuesday as shortwave trough, currently racing east across the southern lands of Canada and northern Montana, pushes into the western Great Lakes by morning. Surge of pre-system warm, moist advection and eventual passage of cold front set to bring a round of showers and thunderstorms into the region later tonight.

Primary Forecast Concerns/Challenges:

Late night into Tuesday shower/storm evolution and severe weather potential.

Details:

Pleasant evening expected with just some increasing clouds with time. Unfortunately, uncertainty ramps up significantly as we head into the overnight. Strong moisture advection on nose of organizing and intensifying low level jet and attendant rapidly increasing upstream instability axis will drive the organization and intensification of showers and thunderstorms to our west. What happens thereafter remains the unanswered question. If convective allowing guidance's placement/evolution of low level jet and folding instability gradient is realized, then shower/storm evolution should trend southeast, with most organized and intense activity sliding into southwest lower Michigan later tonight...leaving more "generic" and more scattered activity to impact our area. Pattern recognition of these type of systems strongly supports this idea. However, if forced convergence on nose of low level jet is displaced just a bit further north, then upstream more organized and intense activity has a much better chance to impact at least parts of our area later tonight into early Tuesday. Will definitely need to monitor, as increasing deep layer shear through the depth of the convective layer would support a least a low end severe wind threat...as well as some marginal severe size hail. Latest SPC convective outlook continues to highlight this potential, placing nearly all of northern Michigan into a marginal risk for severe weather.

What happens tonight/early Tuesday morning will significantly dictate what transpires later Tuesday. Actual cold front set to cut west to east across our area during the morning and early afternoon, with that timing at least theoretically supporting the potential for additional destabilization...especially across northeast lower Michigan (if skies can at least partially clear). However, primary instability axis will remain well south of us, and any pre-frontal convergence axis (from morning showers/storms) may drive best convergence south and east of our area before actual front arrives.
Very possible late Tuesday morning and afternoon are completely devoid of any activity, with showers and storms remaining east and south of our area
Again
if storms can develop, isolated severe potential will continue given brisk wind fields through the vertical.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
Issued at 307 PM EDT Mon Jun 24 2024

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST:

Longwave troughing will continue chances of active weather before a ridge of high pressure builds overhead promoting quieter weather by mid-week. Low pressure tracks along the northern U.S and Canadian border, and eventually to Lake Superior for Friday/Saturday, bringing back the next chances for showers/ thunderstorms.
Temperatures will increase throughout the week then decrease for the weekend as active weather is expected to return.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS:

- Precipitation Chances: A shortwave trough will slide across the Great Lakes Region Wednesday bringing increasing cloud cover through the day. Some guidance hints that some light showers could be possible later in the day Wednesday, but confidence is low.
Attention then turns to a longwave trough and its associated low pressure will track towards the Great Lakes Region Friday/Saturday bringing active weather back to the forecast area. It's still too early to message specific impacts, but guidance suggests that it's likely active weather will return for this weekend- Stay tuned!

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
Issued at 147 PM EDT Mon Jun 24 2024

Only concern is expected arrival of showers and embedded thunderstorms, along with MVFR producing low clouds, from west to east across the taf locations later tonight into early Tuesday morning. Plenty of uncertainty remains with regards to overall shower/storm coverage and intensity...with growing support most organized and intense storms pass across southwest lower Michigan. Will convey this uncertainty through vicinity thunder wording for now. If a north trend materializes, then stronger storms will be capable of producing brief very gusty winds and heavy rain. Slow improvement expected as we head through later Tuesday morning.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
MARINE...None.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind AirWater WavesinHgDewPt
45002 - N MICHIGAN- Halfway between North Manitou and Washington Islands. 27 mi38 minS 5.8G7.8 61°F 60°F29.9558°F
GTLM4 - Grand Traverse Light, MI 33 mi58 minENE 4.1G4.1 73°F 29.97
NPDW3 - Northport Pier at Death's Door WI 49 mi98 minSE 9.9G14 66°F 29.98


Wind History for Port Inland, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherAirDewPtRHinHg
KFKS27 sm22 minSW 0310 smClear77°F50°F39%29.94
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Wind History graph: FKS
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Tide / Current for
   
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Gaylord, MI,




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