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LMZ364 Expires:202311302215;;658683 Fzus63 Kmkx 301506 Glflm
open lake forecast for lake michigan national weather service milwaukee/sullivan wi 906 am cst Thu nov 30 2023
for waters beyond five nautical miles of shore on lake michigan.
waves are provided as a range of significant wave heights, which is the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave, along with the average height of the highest 10% of the waves which will occasionally be encountered.
Synopsis..
breezy winds currently from the southwest ahead of a cold front expected to push through by this afternoon. Wind gusts to 30 knots over the south half of the lake. Winds will veer north later today into tonight behind the cold front. Breezy east to northeast winds will then develop Friday as low pressure of 29.8 inches passes by to the south across illinois and into indiana. No gales expected over the forecast period.
lmz261-362-364-366-563-565-567-868-302215- lake michigan from seul choix point to rock island passage 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan south of a line from seul choix point to the mackinac bridge and north of a line from charlevoix mi to south fox island 5 nm offshore- lake michigan from charlevoix to point betsie mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from point betsie to manistee mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from rock island passage to sturgeon bay wi- lake michigan from sturgeon bay to two rivers wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from two rivers to sheboygan wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from pentwater to manistee mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- 906 am cst Thu nov 30 2023
sheboygan wi to pentwater mi north...
Rest of today..Southwest winds 15 to 25 kt becoming northwest 10 to 20 kt. Waves 4 to 7 ft occasionally to 9 ft.
Tonight..Northwest winds 10 to 20 kt becoming north 10 to 15 kt. Waves 3 to 5 ft subsiding to 2 to 4 ft.
Friday..Northeast winds 10 to 15 kt increasing to 10 to 20 kt. Waves 3 to 5 ft.
Friday night..Northeast winds 10 to 20 kt. Chance of rain and snow showers. Waves 3 to 5 ft.
Saturday..Northeast winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 2 to 4 ft.
Saturday night..East winds 10 to 15 kt. Chance of rain showers. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
Sunday..East winds 10 to 20 kt becoming northeast. Rain showers likely with a chance of snow showers. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
Monday..Northwest winds 10 to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 3 ft.

LMZ300
No data

FXUS63 KAPX 301726 AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 1226 PM EST Thu Nov 30 2023

UPDATE
Issued at 939 AM EST Thu Nov 30 2023

Early morning patchy fog continues to slowly burn off under otherwise partly sunny skies with only minor tweaks made to inherited fog/cloud forecast. Otherwise, today's forecast remains on track with further details below in the near-term forecast section.

NEAR TERM
(Today through Tonight)
Issued at 334 AM EST Thu Nov 30 2023

High Impact Weather Potential: Minimal

Pattern Synopsis:

Longwave troughing centered over Hudson Bay will continue to pivot eastward today as an embedded jet max rotates over the upper Great Lakes/southeast Canada. An associated weak cyclone/surface pressure response along an advancing cold front will follow suit, working into Quebec by tonight as the boundary swings across northern Michigan later this afternoon and evening.

Forecast Details:

Mainly quiet weather is anticipated across the area through tonight.
Mostly clear skies south of the bridge has promoted efficient radiational cooling early this morning, dropping temperatures well into the 20s across localized areas and aiding patchy fog/mist development as noted by visibility reductions at several observation sites. While this is combined with sub-freezing surface temperatures, there is low confidence that fog/mist will have any impacts through early morning (i.e. glaze of ice formation on elevated surfaces or roadways) as increasing wind speeds should help keep the near-surface profile mixed over the next several hours before daylight.

That said, temperatures look to quickly warm above freezing after sunrise with southwest low-level flow advecting a warmer airmass into the area ahead of the advancing front. Afternoon highs look to warm into the 40s across many areas with the warmest temperatures expected to come across northeast lower where readings in the upper 40s and even low 50s will be possible with downsloping flow in these areas. Winds will swing to northwesterly for a brief time this evening before going calm tonight, once again fostering efficient radiational cooling across areas with clearing cloud cover. Where mostly clear skies persist for a time tonight -- most likely northeast lower -- temperatures could dip back into the upper teens and low 20s away from the immediate lakeshores.

SHORT TERM
(Friday through Saturday)
Issued at 334 AM EST Thu Nov 30 2023

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: Low for now...though monitoring Friday and Saturday night for some light snow potential...

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST:

Upstream flow over the northern Pacific becoming more zonal...with more of a zonal idea in general over the US for a change, though longwave troughing still holds on over the E
US
with split flow over the West Coast, including a stronger punch of vorticity and difluence over SoCal and Nevada. Anomalous upper low and cold (-20C at 850mb) air over Hudson Bay holding steady, with a lobe of energy starting to swing down into Manitoba/Ontario
Meanwhile
another lobe of energy along the periphery of the longwave trough digs through the southern Canadian Prairies along lingering BCZ from yesterday's clipper that stretches back into NW Canada. Niblet of energy over the central Plains and its attendant surface reflection over Nebraska are weakly connected to this over the Upper Midwest by a surface trough. Very weak signals of this in WV/IR imagery with upticks in cloud cover just upstream of us. Additional niblets over the desert SW/TX Panhandle, combined with surface high pressure over the SE US, resulting in return flow into the southern Plains for a change.

Aforementioned lobe of energy over the Canadian Prairies to dig across southern Canada today...dragging another little/weak clipper system through the region...and allowing the back end of this to get strung out to the SW. SoCal vort max(es) expected to eject up this lingering BCZ toward the OH Valley for Friday/Friday night. Main focus for precip and impacts /should/ be over southern Lower Michigan with this, as surface high pressure gets stretched out over Lake Superior...helping to aid in a sharp northern gradient to the precip. Additional energy digging into the base of the longwave trough out west Friday night into Saturday will lead to surface pressure falls and increasing potential for a return to active weather going into later Saturday and Saturday night.

Primary Forecast Concerns: Northern extent of precip Friday/night
Saturday/night precip
including ptypes?

Setup for Friday is very interesting, meteorologically...and definitely piques my interest from a conceptual standpoint...presented with excellent signals for synoptic scale forcing and increasing moisture (pwats increasing toward 0.5in for us late in the day...and toward 0.8in across southern Lower...indicate somewhat unusually deep moisture for this time of year). For now, suspect that most of the focus will be to our south, as warm/moist advection will be fighting a very tight moisture gradient on the north side of the system...and thus, expecting a definite and dramatic north edge of the precip shield (likely over our CWA)
Attm
think points along and south of a line from APN-MBL will have the greatest potential (for now) to get in on the synoptic precip, which should be primarily in the form of snow, given thermal profiles below freezing off the deck except for perhaps right near Saginaw Bay. (Thermal profiles also suggest this will be a wetter, denser, messier snow than what we saw earlier this week.) For now...not expecting much in the way of accumulation; perhaps an inch or less across this regions.

Caveat: deformation band impacts and uncertainty. There is support for a tight deformation/fgen band to set up somewhere along the north side of the system Friday and especially into Friday night/Saturday as another wave slips up along the flow. This is an important wrench to throw into the forecast, as these features are notorious for producing sharply defined bands of more intense precipitation...and it is not out of the realm of possibilities that it could set up over part of our CWA Friday night...perhaps even as far north as the aforementioned APN-MBL line? Some probabilistic guidance suggests there is a 20-30 percent chance of at least 2 inches of snow from 18z Fri - 18z Sat across parts of the area (perhaps Mio-ish toward Gladwin-ish)...though given probabilistic 24- hr QPF forecasts hinting at 0.25 to 0.5 inches of liquid/liquid equivalent...I would not be surprised if some spots, especially wherever the deformation band sets up, end up with more snow than currently anticipated.

Deeper moisture slips out as the main surface low slips eastward Saturday...though per guidance soundings, this does set the stage for potential drizzle/freezing drizzle, as the profile could be warm enough to preclude cloud ice nucleation, at least, until deeper moisture approaches again as the next wave develops downstream along the boundary. Saturday night's system could be a bit more dynamic than Friday/Friday night's...and will bear watching as we go forward...especially given that it could be focused a bit further north.

All this being said...me and my worst-case-scenario brain feel a bit like this forecast has a house-of-cards feel to it...that is, all the main players (Friday's precip shield, Friday night's deformation band, Saturday night's wave) will depend on where the boundary/deformation axis ends up and how it evolves through the next few days...such that if one of the players shifts the boundary in an unexpected way, it could have a ripple effect through the remainder of the short term forecast. Certainly will be interesting to watch this all unfold.

LONG TERM
(Saturday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 334 AM EST Thu Nov 30 2023

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: Minimal for now.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST:

Longwave troughing looks to settle into the central US by the start of next week...as more energy digs into the central Plains and strengthens the thermal gradient across the eastern US. Currently, it appears this should drive development of a reasonably strong surface low somewhere over the eastern CONUS for the early part of next week, in a broad sense...which, at least initially, could impact us...and perhaps eventually the East Coast
However
still quite a bit of uncertainty in exactly how this unfolds...as timing/position of the surface low will depend on which of the vort maxes trekking through the base of the trough actually ends up kicking off and reinforcing the surface cyclogenesis. At this time, it appears the greatest impacts may remain to our south, closer to better forcing and moisture...though it will certainly be worth watching. At the very least, with troughing hanging over the Great Lakes for a time...do think we'll remain at least slightly active here...as niblets of energy ride the ridge into the back of the trough
Speaking of the upstream ridge
there are signals that this may begin to build eastward across the central Plains...which could signal a shift in our weather going into the latter half of next week.

AVIATION
(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1224 PM EST Thu Nov 30 2023

Primarily VFR this afternoon through tonight, although temporary CIG reductions to MVFR likely as a cold front slowly crosses northwest to southeast across northern Michigan. Occasionally breezy southwest winds are in the process of veering northwesterly this afternoon before weakening this evening through tonight.

MARINE
Issued at 334 AM EST Thu Nov 30 2023

Southwest winds will continue over the northern Great Lakes into this afternoon, sustaining small craft advisory winds and waves over the nearshore waters during this time. A front swinging across the region will shift winds to northwesterly this evening into tonight.
While winds will gradually weaken after the frontal passage, advisory criteria waves should linger into this evening. Advisory conditions are expected to persist into Friday morning over Whitefish Bay.



APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
LH...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for LHZ345>349.
LM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for LMZ323-341- 342-344>346.
LS...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for LSZ322.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Friday for LSZ321.

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