Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Glen Arbor, MI
 | Sunrise 5:20 AM Sunset 8:13 PM Moonrise 12:00 AM Moonset 7:35 AM |
LMZ364 Expires:202505160930;;585045 Fzus63 Kmkx 160220 Glflm
open lake forecast for lake michigan national weather service milwaukee/sullivan wi 920 pm cdt Thu may 15 2025
for waters beyond five nautical miles of shore on lake michigan.
waves are provided as a range of significant wave heights, which is the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave, along with the average height of the highest 10% of the waves which will occasionally be encountered.
Synopsis -
southeast to east winds continue Thunderstorms will continue across the northern third of the lake along the cold front this evening. Storms have cleared the lake across the central and southern third. Winds will turn southwest behind the front.
low pressure will then move through northern minnesota and northwest wisconsin Friday, while weakening a bit to around 29.2 inches. Winds will remain southerly over the open waters. Could see gusts approach gale force over the western shoreline areas ahead of the main cold front Friday afternoon. An additional round of Thunderstorms will be possible with this secondary front, with a few strong to severe storms possible again, especially across the south half of the lake.
breezy westerly winds are likely Saturday behind the cold front, as low pressure passes by to the north. Winds decelerate and turn north Saturday night into Sunday, as high pressure builds in north of the region.
lmz261-362-364-366-563-565-567-868-160930- lake michigan from seul choix point to rock island passage 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan south of a line from seul choix point to the mackinac bridge and north of a line from charlevoix mi to south fox island 5 nm offshore- lake michigan from charlevoix to point betsie mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from point betsie to manistee mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from rock island passage to sturgeon bay wi- lake michigan from sturgeon bay to two rivers wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from two rivers to sheboygan wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from pentwater to manistee mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- 920 pm cdt Thu may 15 2025
sheboygan wi to pentwater mi north - .
Rest of tonight - Southeast winds 15 to 25 kt becoming southwest. Patchy fog. Showers with a chance of Thunderstorms late this evening, then chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms overnight. With large hail. Waves 2 to 4 ft.
Friday - South winds 10 to 20 kt increasing to gales to 35 kt. Waves 2 to 4 ft building to 5 to 8 ft occasionally to 10 ft.
Friday night - South winds to 30 kt diminishing to 15 to 25 kt late in the evening, then becoming southwest 10 to 20 kt overnight. Rain showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms in the evening, then chance of rain showers overnight. Waves 5 to 8 ft occasionally to 10 ft subsiding to 4 to 6 ft occasionally to 8 ft.
Saturday - Southwest winds 10 to 20 kt becoming west 15 to 25 kt. Chance of rain showers in the morning. Waves 3 to 5 ft.
Saturday night - Northwest winds 15 to 25 kt. Waves 2 to 4 ft.
Sunday - North winds 10 to 20 kt increasing to 15 to 25 kt. Waves 2 to 4 ft.
Sunday night - North winds 10 to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 4 ft.
Monday - Northeast winds 10 to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 4 ft.
Tuesday - East winds 15 to 25 kt becoming northeast. Chance of rain showers. Waves 3 to 5 ft.
open lake forecast for lake michigan national weather service milwaukee/sullivan wi 920 pm cdt Thu may 15 2025
for waters beyond five nautical miles of shore on lake michigan.
waves are provided as a range of significant wave heights, which is the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave, along with the average height of the highest 10% of the waves which will occasionally be encountered.
southeast to east winds continue Thunderstorms will continue across the northern third of the lake along the cold front this evening. Storms have cleared the lake across the central and southern third. Winds will turn southwest behind the front.
low pressure will then move through northern minnesota and northwest wisconsin Friday, while weakening a bit to around 29.2 inches. Winds will remain southerly over the open waters. Could see gusts approach gale force over the western shoreline areas ahead of the main cold front Friday afternoon. An additional round of Thunderstorms will be possible with this secondary front, with a few strong to severe storms possible again, especially across the south half of the lake.
breezy westerly winds are likely Saturday behind the cold front, as low pressure passes by to the north. Winds decelerate and turn north Saturday night into Sunday, as high pressure builds in north of the region.
lmz261-362-364-366-563-565-567-868-160930- lake michigan from seul choix point to rock island passage 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan south of a line from seul choix point to the mackinac bridge and north of a line from charlevoix mi to south fox island 5 nm offshore- lake michigan from charlevoix to point betsie mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from point betsie to manistee mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from rock island passage to sturgeon bay wi- lake michigan from sturgeon bay to two rivers wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from two rivers to sheboygan wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from pentwater to manistee mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- 920 pm cdt Thu may 15 2025
sheboygan wi to pentwater mi north - .
LMZ300
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Glen Arbor, MI
NEW! Add second zone forecast
FXUS63 KAPX 160723 AFDAPX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 323 AM EDT Fri May 16 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- Warm, dry, and somewhat windy conditions results in elevated wildfire danger today.
- Another round of showers and embedded thunderstorms tonight.
- Cool weather and cloudy skies return this weekend. High pressure continues quiet weather through the midweek.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Issued at 321 AM EDT Fri May 16 2025
Pattern Synopsis/Forecast:
Occluded front, tied to deep low pressure spinning across the northern Plains, sweeping rapidly east across the area early this morning. Band of decaying showers and embedded thunderstorms along and just ahead of this front, with aggressive dry slot punching in just behind it.
Front will exit stage right early this morning as dry slot overspreads the entirety of northern Michigan today. Upstream low pressure and secondary cold front make a run at our area tonight, drumming up another round of showers and perhaps some embedded thunderstorms in the process.
Primary Forecast Concerns:
Temperature/wind/relative humidity trends today (focus on fire weather concerns) and showers and thunderstorm evolution tonight.
Details:
Dry slot today is impressive, resulting in mostly sunny skies...with just some increasing clouds later this afternoon into the evening.
Good vertical mixing with those clear skies, helping drive some decent southwest winds and warm temperatures across the region.
Expecting highs well up into the 80s across interior northern lower Michigan, with reading just a smidge cooler for areas north of the big bridge and near those big waters. That mixing will also help plummet relative humidity rather aggressively by this afternoon.
Combine that with those warm temperatures and gusty southwest winds and the stage is set for elevated wildfire concerns this afternoon.
Will address that issues in our hazardous weather products/graphics and fire weather products.
Slug of deeper moisture arrives tonight ahead of that secondary cold front and vort max wrapping around parent upstream low pressure.
Expect scattered to numerous showers to spread back overhead quickly this evening. A few embedded thunderstorms also expected. Cannot completely rule out an isolated severe storm or two given relatively steep mid level lapse rates and modest shear through the convective column. Marginally severe wind gusts and hail would be the primary concerns with any more organized updraft.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
Issued at 321 AM EDT Fri May 16 2025
Pattern Synopsis/Forecast:
Midlevel closed low pressure at the base of a shortwave trough will be centered over the Upper Great Lakes at the start of the long term. Chances of precipitation begin to dissipate as midlevel heights rise and push subsidence across the northwoods through Tuesday. A few scattered showers will linger across parts of Michigan through Saturday as the surface level low begins to dissipate and slowly move towards the northeast. Besides the on and off showers, biggest noticing feature will be the temperatures falling well below normal for mid May. Highs this Saturday and Sunday will remain in the upper 50s to low 60s as cold air pulls in from the north. Cloudy skies and showers will give more of a early spring or even a fall feeling, but temperatures will slowly build into the 60s and even low 70s by midweek.
At the same time; troughing currently over the Pacific Northwest will work its way eastward, reaching the Great Lakes region returns chances of precip around the Wednesday/Thursday timeframe. Ensemble guidance depicts this system weakening with time and lingering across the region through the rest of the week. Light- scattered showers will continue this pattern of dreary weather to close out the forecast period. Poor organization and a lack of deep atmospheric moisture will keep rain amounts low and any risk of severe weather at a minimum.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
Issued at 743 PM EDT Thu May 15 2025
Watching a couple of things this evening: first is squall line advancing across eastern Wisconsin toward Lake Michigan...likely reaching KMBL around 0200Z...KTVC 0300-0330Z...KPLN 0330Z- 0430Z...and KAPN/KCIU after 0500Z. Gusty winds (likely from the south/southwest) a good bet with this line of storms as they pass through...but should only be a 1-2 hours window for this.
Second thing is sneaky area of fog/St over northern Lake Huron getting pushed toward northeast Lower...and with loss of daytime heating/mixing concerned about an LIFR fog/St deck spreading into KAPN after 0100Z through about the time the line of storms is expected to roll through.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
MARINE...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 323 AM EDT Fri May 16 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- Warm, dry, and somewhat windy conditions results in elevated wildfire danger today.
- Another round of showers and embedded thunderstorms tonight.
- Cool weather and cloudy skies return this weekend. High pressure continues quiet weather through the midweek.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Issued at 321 AM EDT Fri May 16 2025
Pattern Synopsis/Forecast:
Occluded front, tied to deep low pressure spinning across the northern Plains, sweeping rapidly east across the area early this morning. Band of decaying showers and embedded thunderstorms along and just ahead of this front, with aggressive dry slot punching in just behind it.
Front will exit stage right early this morning as dry slot overspreads the entirety of northern Michigan today. Upstream low pressure and secondary cold front make a run at our area tonight, drumming up another round of showers and perhaps some embedded thunderstorms in the process.
Primary Forecast Concerns:
Temperature/wind/relative humidity trends today (focus on fire weather concerns) and showers and thunderstorm evolution tonight.
Details:
Dry slot today is impressive, resulting in mostly sunny skies...with just some increasing clouds later this afternoon into the evening.
Good vertical mixing with those clear skies, helping drive some decent southwest winds and warm temperatures across the region.
Expecting highs well up into the 80s across interior northern lower Michigan, with reading just a smidge cooler for areas north of the big bridge and near those big waters. That mixing will also help plummet relative humidity rather aggressively by this afternoon.
Combine that with those warm temperatures and gusty southwest winds and the stage is set for elevated wildfire concerns this afternoon.
Will address that issues in our hazardous weather products/graphics and fire weather products.
Slug of deeper moisture arrives tonight ahead of that secondary cold front and vort max wrapping around parent upstream low pressure.
Expect scattered to numerous showers to spread back overhead quickly this evening. A few embedded thunderstorms also expected. Cannot completely rule out an isolated severe storm or two given relatively steep mid level lapse rates and modest shear through the convective column. Marginally severe wind gusts and hail would be the primary concerns with any more organized updraft.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
Issued at 321 AM EDT Fri May 16 2025
Pattern Synopsis/Forecast:
Midlevel closed low pressure at the base of a shortwave trough will be centered over the Upper Great Lakes at the start of the long term. Chances of precipitation begin to dissipate as midlevel heights rise and push subsidence across the northwoods through Tuesday. A few scattered showers will linger across parts of Michigan through Saturday as the surface level low begins to dissipate and slowly move towards the northeast. Besides the on and off showers, biggest noticing feature will be the temperatures falling well below normal for mid May. Highs this Saturday and Sunday will remain in the upper 50s to low 60s as cold air pulls in from the north. Cloudy skies and showers will give more of a early spring or even a fall feeling, but temperatures will slowly build into the 60s and even low 70s by midweek.
At the same time; troughing currently over the Pacific Northwest will work its way eastward, reaching the Great Lakes region returns chances of precip around the Wednesday/Thursday timeframe. Ensemble guidance depicts this system weakening with time and lingering across the region through the rest of the week. Light- scattered showers will continue this pattern of dreary weather to close out the forecast period. Poor organization and a lack of deep atmospheric moisture will keep rain amounts low and any risk of severe weather at a minimum.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
Issued at 743 PM EDT Thu May 15 2025
Watching a couple of things this evening: first is squall line advancing across eastern Wisconsin toward Lake Michigan...likely reaching KMBL around 0200Z...KTVC 0300-0330Z...KPLN 0330Z- 0430Z...and KAPN/KCIU after 0500Z. Gusty winds (likely from the south/southwest) a good bet with this line of storms as they pass through...but should only be a 1-2 hours window for this.
Second thing is sneaky area of fog/St over northern Lake Huron getting pushed toward northeast Lower...and with loss of daytime heating/mixing concerned about an LIFR fog/St deck spreading into KAPN after 0100Z through about the time the line of storms is expected to roll through.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
MARINE...None.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air | Water | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| 45002 - N MICHIGAN- Halfway between North Manitou and Washington Islands. | 27 mi | 34 min | SSW 18G | 50°F | 38°F | 1 ft | 29.49 | 49°F |
| GTLM4 - Grand Traverse Light, MI | 33 mi | 44 min | SSW 7G | 60°F | 29.48 | |||
| NPDW3 - Northport Pier at Death's Door WI | 49 mi | 84 min | SSE 6G |
Wind History for Port Inland, MI
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Link to 1 hour of 5 minute data for KFKS
Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for KFKS
Wind History Graph: FKS
(wind in knots)
GEOS Local Image of great lakes
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Gaylord, MI,
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