UPDATE
Issued at 1104 PM EDT Wed Sep 11 2024

Current forecast remains on track with no major changes. For details, please see the short term forecast below.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
Issued at 238 PM EDT Wed Sep 11 2024

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST:

A ridge of high pressure continues to build across the Great Lakes Region while surface high pressure pivots to the east.
Cloud cover will decrease through this evening leading to mostly clear skies for tonight, with the exception of the Wildfire smoke expected aloft for the next couple days. With high pressure overhead, the weather will be quiet with a warming temperature trend expected. A thing to watch will be how much the Wildfire smoke impacts temperatures in the coming days. As such, Thursday looks to be a quiet partly to mostly sunny day, with the exception of Wildfire smoke that could make it appear cloudy/ hazy.

Temperatures for tonight look to drop to the 50s/ low 60s with Thursday's temperatures expected to be in the mid 80s (with typical hot spots potentially in the upper 80s) across the Northwoods. However, as discussed before, these temperatures could be cooler than advertised due to the aforementioned influence of the Wildfire smoke.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Issued at 238 PM EDT Wed Sep 11 2024

Pattern Synopsis and Forecast:

Elongated midlevel ridging continues to occupy the majority of the CONUS, continuing surface high pressure and quiet weather for the majority of the country while all eye's remain focused on Hurricane Francine in the Gulf. Current showers driven by embedded shortwave troughing will progress eastward and return sunny and dry conditions across the region for the first half of the long term.

Upstream troughing begins to build and stall over the Northwestern CONUS, continuing this high pressure pattern through the end of the week along with allowing temperatures to surge well above normal for mid September. Slight chances of precipitation return next week as aformentioned troughing spits out a few height disturbances/shortwaves, but overall no impactful weather is expected for the duration of the forecast period.

Primary Forecast Concerns/Key Messages:

-Potential record breaking warm temperatures this weekend.
Slight chances of precipitation return next week: Nothing too impactful in the long term forecast. Main focus is on warm temperatures building at the end of the week as a few locations could potentially break their record highs. Wildfire smoke over the west could progress into the Great Lakes Region, putting a cap on any records from breaking, but regardless, unseasonable warm temps of highs in the low to mid 80s can be expected for the next several days into early next week.

Chances of showers return around the Sunday/Monday timeframe as upstream troughing spits embedded disturbances into the Great Lakes region combined low level moisture from the remnants of Francine as it progresses into the Ohio Valley. Ensembles continue to struggle with a clear solution for the onset of precipitation next week along with if any amounts/impacts within the CWA, but light amounts of scattered precip remain the most likely solution. More details in messaging will emerge with future model runs.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
Issued at 1158 PM EDT Wed Sep 11 2024

Patches of FG/BR have begun to develop across parts of northern Michigan, most notably at PLN. Additional FG/BR may also develop at mbL, potentially dropping VSBYs to MVFR/IFR for a time late tonight/early Thursday morning. Otherwise, any FG/BR will quickly dissipate after sunrise as diurnal mixing ensues, leaving VFR conditions in place through the remainder of the period. Mainly light southwest winds between 5-10 mph are expected Thursday with lake breeze formation pushing inland during the afternoon.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
MARINE...None.