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LHZ348 Presque Isle Light To Sturgeon Pt Mi Including Thunder Bay National Marine Sanctuary- 338 Am Edt Fri Apr 19 2024
.small craft advisory in effect from noon edt today through this evening - .
Today - West wind 15 to 20 knots with gusts to 25 knots. Chance of showers early in the morning. Waves 2 feet or less building to 2 to 4 feet in the afternoon. Tonight - West wind 10 to 15 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 to 3 feet. Saturday - West wind 15 to 25 knots. Partly Sunny. Waves 3 to 5 feet. Saturday night - West wind 15 to 20 knots. Mostly clear. Waves 3 to 5 feet.
see the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.

LHZ300
No data

FXUS63 KAPX 190732 AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 332 AM EDT Fri Apr 19 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Rain/snow chances return this afternoon and evening, with the potential for graupel to mix in with any heavier showers.

- Scattered snow showers remain possible Saturday.

- Next chance of precipitation returns Tuesday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Pattern Synopsis:

Amplified troughing centered over southern Canada/Upper Midwest will progress eastward, working over the Great Lakes this afternoon through tonight. The associated surface cyclone currently over Ontario will trek northeast across James Bay/northern Quebec in conjunction with favorable forcing aloft. An attendant cold front pushing across the area will also depart east this morning.

Forecast Details:

Light showers ongoing across parts of the area associated with the aforementioned front are expected to diminish over the next few hours, leaving quiet weather in place for areas south of the bridge for most of today. Dry air filtering in behind the front will lead to partly to mostly sunny skies for northern lower through this afternoon, whereas better low-level moisture in closer proximity to the surface low will keep more cloud cover in place and support scattered showers across eastern upper beginning this afternoon.
Chances for showers across northern lower look to hold off until this evening.

Relatively steep lapse rates and increasing saturation up to around 700mb amidst support aloft will help develop some more robust showers. With these steep lapse rates and potential for deeper showers, graupel will be possible with activity tomorrow afternoon through tonight. Surface temperatures near freezing underneath falling precip will also likely lead to snow mixing in -- especially tonight with the arrival of coolest temperatures. High confidence exists in any snow accumulations being limited to a dusting/a quick few tenths at most. The primary impact from any snowfall may be quick drops in visibility as showers move overhead. As the previous forecaster expressed, there is still uncertainty in how far southeast to take precip chances across the area due to drier low- level air with extent in that direction away from Lake Michigan.
Best chances will come across northwest lower with lesser chances further inland.

Otherwise, highs in the mid 40s to low 50s are in store this afternoon with lows dipping into the low 30s for most areas tonight.
Temperatures will feel cooler during the day with breezy west winds gusting to 25-35 mph at times.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
Pattern Synopsis and Forecast:

Midlevel large scale closed low pressure over Central Canada continues to push cooler than average temperatures into the Great Lakes region. Midlevel ridging currently over the Northwest Territories with upstream troughing over the Gulf of Alaska will support slow moving midlevel flow for the majority of the long term forecast period keeping a mainly quiet weather pattern for the next several days.

Aformentioned troughing will slowly pivot across Canada and settle over Hudson Bay by Saturday. Non impactful weather is expected for the entirety of the forecast period, but embedded height disturbances will keep chances of precipitation Saturday morning and again in the Tuesday/Wednesday timeframe as a midlevel shortwave progresses through the Great Lakes region.

Primary Forecast Concerns/Key Messages:

-Scattered snow showers remain possible Saturday. Next chance of precipitation returns Tuesday: Saturday morning will start off cool, with temperatures around freezing for most areas and H8 temperatures around -8 to -10 degrees. Lingering moisture along with breezy WNW flow will continue snow showers with rain mixing in until the afternoon hours. Little to no QPF is expected but minor accumulations could result in a general dusting for typical snowbelt locations of northern lower and eastern upper on Saturday.

Conditions dry Saturday evening and remain quiet Sunday and Monday until a shortwave trough currently over the Gulf of Alaska makes its way to the Great lakes region by Tuesday. Current guidance depicts the system weakening as it progresses across the country. Still a bit too far out to message details such as QPF or even P-type, but chances of active weather continues to increase for the region next week.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
A cold front will sweep thru Michigan overnight. Widespread rain will diminish from west to east and eventually come to an end across Northern Lower Michigan by daybreak. Scattered shower activity will linger across Eastern Upper Michigan into Friday. Prevailing conditions will be low VFR/MVFR for the next 24 hours. Surface winds will become westerly at around 10 kts overnight behind the cold front and will then strengthen to 15 to 25 kts on Friday.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from noon today to midnight EDT tonight for LHZ345>349.
Small Craft Advisory from noon today to midnight EDT tonight for LMZ323-341-342-344>346.
Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 8 PM EDT Saturday for LSZ321.

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