Friday, May29, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Alpena, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:56AMSunset 9:09PM Friday May 29, 2020 9:37 PM EDT (01:37 UTC) Moonrise 11:28AMMoonset 1:17AM Illumination 54% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 8 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ348 Presque Isle Light To Sturgeon Pt Mi Including Thunder Bay National Marine Sanctuary- 921 Pm Edt Fri May 29 2020
.small craft advisory in effect through Saturday evening...
Overnight..Northwest wind 10 to 20 knots with gusts to around 25 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 to 3 feet building to 3 to 5 feet after midnight.
Saturday..Northwest wind 10 to 20 knots with gusts to around 25 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 3 to 5 feet.
Saturday night..Northwest wind 15 to 20 knots with gusts to around 25 knots. Clear. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Sunday..West wind 5 to 10 knots. Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less. SEe the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.
LHZ348 Expires:202005300930;;962899 FZUS53 KAPX 300121 NSHAPX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Gaylord MI 921 PM EDT Fri May 29 2020 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lakes Huron... Michigan and Superior. Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LHZ348-300930-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Alpena, MI
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location: 45.07, -83.44     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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FXUS63 KAPX 300119 AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 919 PM EDT Fri May 29 2020

UPDATE. Issued at 919 PM EDT Fri May 29 2020

Secondary cold front is moving into our western CWA late this evening . ushering in significantly cooler air and a mainly broken low cloud deck. Remnants of diurnal showers and storms across our eastern CWA are exiting into Lake Huron attm . diminishing as they do with with loss of diurnal instability. A few showers have popped up within the low cloud deck over Upper Michigan and Wisconsin . and certainly cannot rule out some of these will drift thru our area overnight. Have reworked POPs and cloud cover for overnight to increase both . but still expect most locations will remain dry but partly to mostly cloudy overnight.

Temps will be noticeably cooler tonight . but certainly not cold enough to worry about frost potential. (We'll save that worry for tomorrow night.) Low temps will fall into the 40s across our entire CWA overnight.

NEAR TERM. (Through Saturday) Issued at 336 PM EDT Fri May 29 2020

. Getting cooler .

High Impact Weather Potential . Low. Maybe a few rumbles of thunder thru early evening. High swim risk possible on some ne lower MI beaches Saturday.

Rain band has departed ne lower MI. Strong surface heating and cooling temps aloft have allowed showers to develop in the wake of the departing rain. As expected, coverage is highest in s central and se sections. But a few showers have popped elsewhere, especially in central/eastern Mack Co into se Chip Co in upper MI.

Ongoing showers in northern lower/eastern upper MI have a clear diurnal component, and will fade away this evening. However, this will be a somewhat slowed/delayed process, as steep mid-level lapse rates are maintained. Some showers could linger near OSC and Standish thru 9 pm or so. Meanwhile, showers are also trying to bubble up in central/western upper MI. Remnants of these will try to move into nw lower MI this evening, and models continue to advertise that they should have some limited success in doing so. Will continue to have a small chance of showers this evening in parts of nw lower MI.

A secondary cold front is dropping across northern Superior this afternoon. This will cross northern MI late tonight and early Saturday. High pressure will then build into the upper MS Valley and western Great Lakes. 850mb temps will cool to a couple degrees either side of 0C by early Sat afternoon. Occasional cyclonic curvature to the low level flow will interact with very marginal lake instability to produce some clouds and small chances for rain showers. This will occur in western/central Chippewa Co tonight, and in the same area plus much of nw lower MI Sat morning. The afternoon looks dry.

The secondary cold front will also bring breezier nw winds. Winds/waves are presently progged to result in a high swim risk Saturday on beaches in Presque Isle Co. This was added to the Haz Wx Outlook earlier today.

Temps will be sharply cooler. Mins tonight will range thru the 40s. Highs Sat in the mid 50s to mid 60s.

SHORT TERM. (Saturday night through Monday) Issued at 336 PM EDT Fri May 29 2020

High impact weather potential: Frost potential for Saturday night (and Sunday night?) for portions of eastern upper and northern lower Michigan.

High pressure moves overhead of the forecast area Saturday night, clearing any remaining clouds, producing light wind and excellent radiational cooling. Ensemble members of the SREF and GEFS are both tightly centered near the mean of around 32 degrees . from experience we know that the inland areas and especially the traditionally colder locations may reach into the upper 20s. Sunday is supposed to be a bit warmer, so don't expect as widespread of frost during Sunday night (or possibly none if winds don't decouple), but still some areas inland of the Great Lakes coastlines will continue to have a frost potential . will need to check again after the next model runs. Other than the frost, skies should be mostly clear to partly cloudy Sunday with only some minor gustiness during the afternoon hours from the west to northwest and should at least diminish in intensity and possibly even decouple. Winds remain out of the west for the most part Monday (with afternoon gustiness once again) as high pressure just begins to move to the east of us and allow some return moisture to begin late Monday evening on the western periphery of said high pressure . returning shower chances to northwest lower Michigan by the end of this forecast period (Monday afternoon/evening). There will be increased cloudiness Monday as aforementioned deeper moisture approaches the forecast area. High temperatures will be in the low to mid 60s Sunday and warm into the upper 60s to low 70s Monday.

LONG TERM. (Monday night through Friday) Issued at 336 PM EDT Fri May 29 2020

High impact weather potential: Thunderstorms possible Monday night through Tuesday evening.

The next chance for precipitation appears to be the beginning of next work week when a cold front associated with a low pressure system over Canada approaches the Great Lakes region. We once again will be in the warm sector ahead of this cold front . with a decent LLJ, deep moisture, and upper level wave to help with the developing of rain showers and thunderstorms once again. Pattern becomes a bit more zonal after this . with only nuisance clouds and showers at different periods of the long range forecast. Daytime temperatures should be in the 70s with some locations occassionally hitting the 80 degree mark . while lows should be in the 50s.

AVIATION. (For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening) Issued at 700 PM EDT Fri May 29 2020

Secondary cold front will continue to slide thru Lower Michigan tonight . ushering much cooler air into our state. Low clouds and MVFR/low VFR cigs will accompany this colder air. A few showers are also possible . but the chances are too small to include in the TAFs for now. NW winds around 10 kts tonight will strengthen to 10 to 20 kts with higher gusts on Saturday.

MARINE. Issued at 336 PM EDT Fri May 29 2020

Nw winds will increase tonight into Saturday, as a secondary cold front arrives and brings cooler air to northern MI. Small craft advisories are already up on many waters. Lighter winds are expected Sat night into Sun morning, before w to sw winds start to pick up again Sun afternoon.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . NONE. LH . SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 8 PM EDT Saturday for LHZ347-348. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 7 AM EDT Saturday for LHZ345-346. LM . SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 7 AM EDT Saturday for LMZ342-344. LS . SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 8 PM EDT Saturday for LSZ321-322.

UPDATE . MR NEAR TERM . JZ SHORT TERM . TL LONG TERM . TL AVIATION . MR MARINE . JZ


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
APNM4 - Alpena Harbor Light, MI 1 mi38 min WSW 9.9 G 9.9 59°F
LPNM4 - Alpena, MI - 9075065 1 mi50 min WSW 6 G 8.9 60°F 50°F1012.8 hPa55°F
TBIM4 13 mi48 min SSW 8.9 G 9.9 53°F

Wind History for Alpena, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Alpena, Alpena County Regional Airport, MI7 mi44 minSSE 72.50 miRain Fog/Mist57°F55°F93%1013.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KAPN

Wind History from APN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW6NW7W5W433CalmW4CalmCalmW3NW5W4W5CalmSW4SW5SW7W5N8N9NE9SE6S7
1 day agoCalmE3CalmCalmSE3CalmCalmCalmCalmSE4S4S5SW6S11SW10
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2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE4CalmSE3CalmCalmCalmS44CalmE9E10E9SE9S14
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (21,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.