Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Baileys Harbor, WI

DISCUSSION
Issued at 237 PM CDT Tue Jun 9 2026

The latest RAP analysis and satellite/radar imagery show broad low pressure sitting over the western Great Lakes early this afternoon. Widespread cyclonic flow has maintained a blanket of clouds across the region. However, as this cyclonic flow exits over the lower peninsula of Michigan later today, partial clearing is expected to arrive from west to east through the afternoon.
Eastern Wisconsin will have the most difficult time clearing out, but turning wind trajectories to the north for a brief time by late afternoon should help erode the cloud deck. Looking across other areas of the country that will influence the region over the next 36 to 48 hours, a potent upper level trough is pushing across the northern Rockies into the northern Plains, which will draw an seasonably hot and moist airmass toward Wisconsin late tonight into Wednesday thereby setting the stage for severe weather.

Weak high pressure will move across the area this evening, creating a brief period of quiet weather before a warm front approaches from the southwest late tonight. The combination of light winds and a very moist boundary layer will become highly favorable for marine fog to push inland from Lake Michigan late this evening and spread through the overnight hours across eastern Wisconsin, and possibly into north-central Wisconsin. Widespread dense fog is expected to develop near the lakeshore, and a dense fog advisory will likely be needed to account for significantly reduced visibilities for motorists.

As the warm front approaches late tonight into Wednesday morning, an intensifying 30 kt low-level jet poking into southwest Wisconsin will arrive with a surge of elevated moisture and instability. This will drive a first round of elevated showers and thunderstorms into central WI late tonight or early Wednesday morning. Given effective shear of 25 to 30 kts, elevated instability of 1500 to 2000 J/kg, steep mid-level lapse rates of 7.5 to 8.0 C/km, and a strong low- level inversion, large hail looks to be the main threat with these morning storms. Exact storm coverage is uncertain, and the evolution of this morning convection will heavily dictate how the rest of the day unfolds.

If the morning convection clears quickly and allows the warm front to lift into the Upper Peninsula by early afternoon, increasing winds aloft ahead of the potent upstream trough will allow the atmosphere to destabilize much quicker than normal.
Between the morning and late afternoon rounds of convection, it will become very warm and humid with heat indices soaring into the 90 to 95 degree range across parts of central and east-central Wisconsin. While the increasing chances for storms have tempered the potential for dangerous heat somewhat, the early-season nature of this heat warrants continued messaging. A capping inversion around 800 mb should support a temporary lull in thunderstorm activity through mid-afternoon, but this cap remains on track to erode by late afternoon.

A significant severe weather outbreak appears possible late Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday evening as the main synoptic cold front and upper trough approach from the west. Multiple rounds of severe storms are indicated through the evening hours, supported by boundary layer instability of 2000 to 3000 J/kg and deep-layer shear of 30 to 40 kts. The strongest storms will be capable of large hail and damaging winds through early evening, along with a risk for isolated QLCS-type tornadoes if bowing segments can become organized within the strengthening low-level wind fields. The primary hazard will transition to widespread damaging winds through the evening as storms consolidate into a fast-moving linear squall line. Frontal passage will bring an end to the storm chances and severe threat from west to east by late evening.

The atmosphere will need time to stabilize again on Thursday. A second and more potent shortwave is forecast to track toward the region on Thursday afternoon, causing an associated surface low to lift northeast directly into southeast or east-central Wisconsin by Thursday evening. Widespread showers and thunderstorms will accompany this system, fueled by a deep plume of moisture with precipitable water values climbing well above normal. A severe threat may develop late in the afternoon over east- central Wisconsin where instability ticks up to 800 to 1200 J/kg under strong deep layer shear of 50 to 60 kts. Locally heavy rainfall and minor urban or low-lying flooding will also be possible.
Convection will wind down by mid-evening following the passage of a strong cold front, leaving behind a minor 20 to 30 percent chance of final storm totals exceeding 1 inch over northeast Wisconsin.

A much cooler and drier weather pattern will return to the western Great Lakes Friday into early next week as a broad longwave trough sets up from the Hudson Bay down into the region.
On the southern periphery of this cold pool aloft, spotty diurnally driven showers and storms look possible on Friday and Saturday afternoons. Saturday stands out as having the slightly better potential for scattered afternoon activity due to the passage of a secondary cold front and minor daytime instability.
By Sunday and early next week, dry air and persistent high pressure will take hold, dropping temperatures slightly below seasonal normals.

AVIATION
for 00Z TAF Issuance Issued at 623 PM CDT Tue Jun 9 2026

CIGS have climbed into the VFR category across much of the area this afternoon, except along the Lake Michigan shoreline where MVFR/IFR or even lower CIGS prevail due to dense marine fog. Latest guidance suggest fog will be widespread east of an Eagle River to Antigo to Oshkosh line after 04-05z. The fog will likely become more widespread dense as you get closer to the bay and Lake Michigan overnight. Late tonight into Wednesday morning, the first round of thunderstorms will push northeast across the area. Still some uncertainty in how quick the morning convection will clear out, but another round of strong or severe storms is expected later Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday evening. Large hail of 1" or greater and wind gusts over 50 knots are possible with this cluster of thunderstorms.

GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.