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LMZ541 Rock Island Passage To Sturgeon Bay Wi- 339 Pm Cst Mon Dec 11 2023
.small craft advisory in effect through Tuesday evening...
Rest of this afternoon..SW wind 10 to 20 kts. Partly Sunny. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
Tonight..SW wind 15 to 25 kts with gusts to around 30 kts. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 to 4 ft building to 3 to 5 ft in the late evening and overnight.
Tuesday..W wind 15 to 25 kts. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 to 4 ft.
Tuesday night..W wind 15 to 25 kts. Mostly clear. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
Wednesday..W wind 10 to 15 kts. Mostly Sunny. Waves 2 ft or less.

LMZ500
No data

FXUS63 KGRB 112008 AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Green Bay WI 208 PM CST Mon Dec 11 2023

Forecast discussion for routine afternoon forecast issuance

KEY MESSAGES
- Wind chill values Tuesday morning could be in the single digits to low teens.

-Periods of gusty southwest winds expected for Thursday and Sunday. Temperatures well above normal for the end of the week and this weekend.

-Next chance for precipitation (20-40%), mainly rain, comes Friday into early Saturday as a cold front moves through WI.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 208 PM CST Mon Dec 11 2023

SHORT TERM...Tonight and Tuesday

Despite the quiet weather, the main challenge for the short term forecast continues to be temperature trends, owing in large part to a low stratus deck trapped under a fairly persistent inversion.

For this afternoon, southerly flow and warm air advection through the lower levels appears to finally be clearing some of the low clouds out of southern WI gradually, with clearing possible by the late afternoon for portions of central WI as well. Reflecting this, kept temperatures cool for much of the north but still nudged in some upper 20s to low 30s for those that do see clearing over the next few hours going into the evening.

Tonight, despite the brief clearing, clouds will come back fairly quickly overnight as a cold front crosses the region. Any precipitation accompanying the front will be concentrated along the stronger vorticity advection near the Upper Peninsula border, but winds will pick up by Tuesday morning. Wind chills in the mornign as a result could drop into the single digits to low teens.

Tuesday, colder air behind the cold front will keep temperatures cooler, with highs ranging from the lower 20s to lower 30s.

LONG TERM...Tuesday Night Through Monday A typical El Nino pattern is expected to persist through the extended period and beyond. Temperatures late this week and this weekend look to trend 10-15 degrees warmer than normal for mid December. Only chance for precipitation (20-40%) during the extended period is progged for Friday into Saturday morning as a system moves through the western Great Lakes.

Tuesday night through Thursday...Westerly winds will still be breezy Tuesday nights with gusts of 25-30 mph possible with some mixing to around 950mb, however, with the mixing heights decreasing Wednesday morning winds should die down to around 5-15 mph. A high amplitude ridge and a broad surface high pressure system are forecast to move over the area Wednesday and Thursday keeping conditions dry and skies mostly sunny. SW winds are expected to increase on Thursday as the pressure gradient tightens over Wisconsin. Gusts of 30-35 mph will again be possible Thursday, mainly during the afternoon hours.

Friday through the end of the extended period...Model guidance continues to show the possibility for some precipitation Friday into Saturday as an area of mid-level convergence and a surface cold front sweep through the region. However, there is still a discrepancy with the timing of the precipitation. The GFS has most of the precipitation out of the area by early Saturday morning, where as the ECMWF has the chance for precipitation lingering until mid-day Saturday. With temperatures expected to be well above freezing Friday afternoon rain will be the primary precipitation type with this system, however, if the precipitation does hang on into Saturday morning an area of snow could mix in over north-central WI. Ensemble models (EPS, GEFS, and CMCE) are suggesting about 0.05-0.15" of QPF with this system with the EPS being the most aggressive. Dry conditions are expected to return for the remainder of the weekend as another area of weak high pressure develops over the area. SW winds may again become breezy Sunday as the pressure gradient again tightens over the area.

Temperatures...Wednesday looks to be the last day in this stretch of seasonal temperatures as steady SW winds brings the chance for highs in the upper 30s to 40s Thursday through Sunday.

AVIATION
for 18Z TAF Issuance Issued at 1207 PM CST Mon Dec 11 2023

Low clouds remain in place across the region through the early afternoon, but some signs of clearing are approaching rapidly from the south as warmer, drier air works its way into the area for the evening. There may be a brief window for some clearing, possibly bringing some brief VFR conditions before a front moves into the area overnight, bringing a period of LLWS and the return of some mid to high clouds. Winds accompanying the front will gust up to 25 kts at times overnight.

GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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