Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Baileys Harbor, WI

DISCUSSION
Issued at 234 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025

Cloudy to mostly cloudy skies and low ceilings continue to plague the forecast area late this afternoon. Despite these conditions, CAMs models continue to develop showers, and a few thunderstorms, across the area late this afternoon and this evening. Mesoanalysis shows that despite very strong shear across the region, with bulk shear values of 75 knots, instability is wanting across our area with the best instability well to our south in northern Illinois and only a few hundred J/kg of MUCAPE across our area. Therefore, while thunderstorms will be possible, severe weather is not anticipated across our area this evening as any thunderstorms that develop should be elevated in nature.

High pressure will provide a break in the active pattern late tonight through Sunday morning as it tracks across the northern Great Lakes. Meanwhile, a low pressure system developing across the southern Plains will track north-northeast towards the western Great Lakes region Sunday night and Monday. Some light rain is possible Sunday afternoon ahead of the main low with isentropic lift across the region; however, the main swath of precipitation is expected to hold off until Sunday night and Monday.
Precipitation with this system should mainly be rain across much of the area, with a mix of rain and snow across north-central Wisconsin. The latest probabilistic guidance has cut back on the amount of snow quite a bit this run with only a 10-20% chance of 2 inches or more of snow across far north-central Wisconsin and a 20-40% chance of an inch or more of snow.

After a brief break in the action late Monday night into Tuesday morning, the next system will track through the region Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night. This system will have fairly weak dynamics; therefore, only light rain is expected from this next low pressure system. Yet another low pressure system looks to affect the area Wednesday night through Thursday night. Beyond this part of the forecast there is quite a bit of uncertainty as there are discrepancies on if a Canadian high pressure can keep the weather dry to end next week.

AVIATION
for 18Z TAF Issuance Issued at 1228 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025

Conditions ranged from MVFR to LIFR early this afternoon with some light rain across far north-central Wisconsin. CAMs models continue to develop showers across the area this afternoon with thunderstorms and possibly strong storms with locally heavy rain.
gusty winds, and large hail across far east-central Wisconsin.
Reduced vsbys of 2 to 3 SM will likely accompany heavy rain within areas of convection. Opted to include TEMPOs for the eastern TAF sites when thunder seems most likely. Conditions then gradually improve to MVFR and even VFR overnight as high pressure ends precipitation from west to east.

GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.