Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Baileys Harbor, WI

DISCUSSION
Issued at 457 PM CST Sun Jan 18 2026

Snowfall through Monday...

This afternoon's radar and surface observations showed light snow moving across the forecast area from west to east in association with a mid-level shortwave overhead. The light snowfall will continue to track across the region through late tonight, lingering the longest into Monday morning across far north- central WI due to lake enhancement. Snowfall amounts will mainly be under one inch, with the exception of Vilas County, where up to 3 inches is expected. However, as colder air moves into the area later tonight with the arrival of an arctic front, the DGZ will lower to the surface, causing SLRs to lower as well, resulting in the snow to be more of a sand-like consistency. This consistency is not ideal for higher snow accumulations, but is efficient at reducing visibility when paired with stronger winds, which arrive later tonight.

Gusty winds Causing Blowing Snow...

Following the aforementioned shortwave, an arctic front will move across the region, providing a strong push of CAA. This will allow for a 30-45 kt LLJ to mix to the surface. These northwest wind gusts will increase mainly after midnight and continue through midday Monday. The strongest winds up to 45 mph are anticipated along the lakeshore, including Door County, around daybreak Monday through mid-morning Monday. The combination of the recently fallen snow and the strong winds will raise concern for blowing and drifting snow across the region. The greatest confidence for impacts from the blowing and drifting snow is over Door County, as there is an added nudger of the light snow sitting on the frozen Bay of Green Bay that will blow east across Door County.
Maintained the Winter Weather Advisory for Door County for this reason, but depending on how conditions appear upstream this evening/late tonight, additional Winter Weather Advisories may need to be issued for portions of central and east-central WI, where there are more open areas (compared to locations across the Northwoods--more trees). Regardless, there is still potential for impacts to the Monday morning commute across the entire region.
Winds will gradually decrease through Monday afternoon/evening.

Bitter Cold Wind Chills...

The arctic front will bring a rush of colder air across the region by Monday morning, causing low temperatures tonight to drop to the single digits above and below zero. The addition of the strong northwest winds will result in bitter cold wind chills as low as 20 to 30 below zero late tonight through midday Monday. A Cold Weather Advisory remains in effect for the entire region, except Door County, until noon Monday. However, there appears to be little recovery during Monday afternoon before wind chills drop to Cold Weather Advisory criteria again. For now, kept the end time of noon Monday, but could see it being extended through Tuesday morning, as wind chills will be in the advisory criteria range again. That being said, high temperatures on Monday will be well below normal with values ranging from just below zero to the single digits above zero.

Rest of the week...

Active winter weather persists. A clipper system with more QPF/snow expected for the region Tuesday night into Wednesday.
Current indications have more snowfall over southern WI, but this system has been bouncing back and forth. More snow could occur late this week ahead of a very sharp mid-level trough dropping across the western Great Lakes. ECMWF is very frigid, compared to what occurs early this week, showing a 850mb temp over northern WI of -37C! Note there is a lot of spread among the guidance due to timing issues, but will continue to monitor how this evolves.

AVIATION
for 00Z TAF Issuance Issued at 533 PM CST Sun Jan 18 2026

A mix of VFR and MVFR CIGs prevailed across the region late this afternoon as another round of light snow was tracking through the region. This light snow will generate MVFR cigs and MVFR/IFR VSBYs as it marches across the region, exiting late this evening.
However, lake-effect snow showers will persist in north-central Wisconsin through midday Monday, which will keep MVFR cigs at the KRHI TAF site.

As the snow ends late this evening, strong northwest winds will develop mainly after 06z Mon, as high as 30-35 kts. These winds will generate blowing and drifting snow with vsbys potentially dropping to IFR. The blowing and drifting snow impacts will likely continue through Monday morning mainly for the east- central WI TAF sites as winds remain higher there the longest.
Winds to gradually subside during Monday afternoon and evening with the potential for some clearing on Monday.

GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Winter Weather Advisory until 9 AM CST Monday for WIZ005.

Cold Weather Advisory from 3 AM to noon CST Monday for WIZ005- 010>013-018>021-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074.

Winter Weather Advisory from 3 AM to noon CST Monday for WIZ022.