Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Calais, ME
December 7, 2023 11:32 PM AST (03:32 UTC)
Sunrise 7:47AM Sunset 4:43PM Moonrise 1:58AM Moonset 1:54PM
ANZ050 Coastal Waters From Eastport, Me To Schoodic Point, Me Out 25 Nm- 927 Pm Est Thu Dec 7 2023
Rest of tonight..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Fri..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Fri night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the evening. Seas around 2 ft in the evening, then 1 foot or less.
Sat..SW winds around 5 kt, becoming S in the afternoon. Seas 1 foot or less, then around 2 ft in the afternoon.
Sat night..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sun..S winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 ft. A chance of rain in the afternoon.
Sun night..S winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 40 kt, increasing to 25 to 30 kt with gusts up to 50 kt after midnight. Seas 4 to 7 ft, building to 7 to 10 ft after midnight. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm after midnight.
Mon..S winds 30 to 35 kt, becoming sw 25 to 30 kt in the afternoon, then becoming W 20 to 25 kt in the evening, becoming nw 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 11 to 16 ft, building to 13 to 18 ft in the afternoon, then subsiding to 10 to 15 ft in the evening, subsiding to 8 to 13 ft after midnight. Rain through the day, then a chance of showers in the evening. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tue..W winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon, then becoming sw 15 to 20 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft, subsiding to 5 to 8 ft.
Rest of tonight..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Fri..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Fri night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the evening. Seas around 2 ft in the evening, then 1 foot or less.
Sat..SW winds around 5 kt, becoming S in the afternoon. Seas 1 foot or less, then around 2 ft in the afternoon.
Sat night..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sun..S winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 ft. A chance of rain in the afternoon.
Sun night..S winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 40 kt, increasing to 25 to 30 kt with gusts up to 50 kt after midnight. Seas 4 to 7 ft, building to 7 to 10 ft after midnight. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm after midnight.
Mon..S winds 30 to 35 kt, becoming sw 25 to 30 kt in the afternoon, then becoming W 20 to 25 kt in the evening, becoming nw 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 11 to 16 ft, building to 13 to 18 ft in the afternoon, then subsiding to 10 to 15 ft in the evening, subsiding to 8 to 13 ft after midnight. Rain through the day, then a chance of showers in the evening. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tue..W winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon, then becoming sw 15 to 20 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft, subsiding to 5 to 8 ft.
ANZ005 927 Pm Est Thu Dec 7 2023
Synopsis for eastport me to stonington me out 25 nm.. High pres will cross the region overnight. A warm front will approach later Fri then cross the waters Sat. Low pres tracking across maine will draw a cold front across the waters Sun night into Mon. High pres returns Tue.
Synopsis for eastport me to stonington me out 25 nm.. High pres will cross the region overnight. A warm front will approach later Fri then cross the waters Sat. Low pres tracking across maine will draw a cold front across the waters Sun night into Mon. High pres returns Tue.
Area Discussion for - Caribou, ME
(on/off) HelpNOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
FXUS61 KCAR 080208 AFDCAR
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 908 PM EST Thu Dec 7 2023
SYNOPSIS
High pressure will cross the area overnight into Friday. A warm front will approach Friday night then cross the region Saturday. Intensifying low pressure tracking across Maine will draw a cold front across the region Sunday night into Monday.
High pressure builds Monday night into Tuesday.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
9:08 PM Update: Satellite pictures and observations confirm that more low clouds have dropped south into northern Aroostook County along with flurries. Some of the lower clouds have made it all the way south into parts of eastern Washington County.
The cloud forecast for the remainder of the night remains a challenge with very low forecaster confidence. Given the overall persistence of the clouds since last night will side toward it remaining partly to mostly cloudy across the north while it should remain clear from Bangor south to the Hancock County coast. Where the sky is clear, temperatures have dropped to zero to 5 above, but where the sky is cloudy temps are mostly in the teens. Given the difficulty in trying to predict what will happen with the areas of stratus overnight, it makes the temperature forecast a real challenge. If an area can clear out for just a couple of hours before daybreak temps could quickly plummet. For now, will adjust temps to reflect the current observations as of 9 PM, but am reluctant to make too many changes to the overnight lows. In some areas an argument could be made to raise them across the north, but if the clouds move out later tonight it would end up being a mistake.
Previous discussion: A mid level trof exiting to the east will continue to hold shortwave energy over the northeast. For this evening, isolated snow showers will continue for eastern parts for the St John Valley, Central Aroostook, and Southern Aroostook. Vorticity models show the vort max sagging south tonight, mainly into the Central Highlands. However, the NW flow in the upper levels will bring drier air into the region, helping to reduce moisture and cloud cover. The early cloud cover in the north will help keep temps above zero, except in the North Woods where winds will be lighter allowing for more cooling. For the south, clear skies will drop temps into the single digits.
For Friday, upper level ridging will start to move in behind the trof. RH models show the clouds in the north completely clearing by later in the morning, but high-res QPF models show some isolated showers in NB. Cannot rule out the possibility of a morning snow shower in this area. By the afternoon, expect sunny skies with temps in the 20s across the region.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
Radiational cooling with a very shallow inversion is the forecast challenge for Friday night. Have leaned towards the lower guidance given the usual troubles of models with shallow winter radiation inversions. Readings below zero can be expected across much of Aroostook County while teens are forecast for Bangor and Downeast.
Warm advection and increasing cloudiness will the story for the weekend. Expect sunshine on Saturday morning to give way to clouds overspreading from the southwest. The concern for later Saturday afternoon into Sunday morning will be freezing drizzle...most notably in upslope locations such as Piscataquis County and northern Penobscot County. Strong low level moisture advection and warming temperatures over existing snow pack will likely result in fog formation Saturday night into Sunday morning for much of the area.
Any frozen precip exits the area Sunday morning. Low clouds will remain entrenched over the area all day, but warm advection will lift temperatures towards the mid 40s to around 50F on the coast. Fog could linger well into the morning, but increasing south winds later in the day reduce coverage mostly to high terrain and upslope areas. Light rain and drizzle can be expected Sunday, but the heavier precip will remain west until Sunday night.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
Temperatures warm steadily all of Sunday night and the high temperature for Monday could occur before daybreak. Winds will steadily ramp up through the night. The strongest winds will be after midnight Sunday night through Monday morning. Have favored NBM winds for this forecast that offers 60 mph or higher gusts on the coast and nearly 50 mph at Bangor. Based on the forecast pressure gradient and low level jet strength, local rules of thumb strongly suggest wind headlines will be needed and power outages can be anticipated. The only caveat is the low track trending further east as advertised by the hemispheric GEMS.
Across all of the models, the forecast low track has been trending slowly east in recent days.
Two other concerns with the Monday event will be precipitation and coastal flooding. In general, current projections are for one to two inches of rainfall. Deep Atlantic moisture with PWs over 1.2 inches are anticipated. WPC has placed the area in a marginal risk in the ERO. The good news is that the system is progressive and not expected to linger over the area for a long time. The heaviest precip will fall in higher terrain in locations such as Piscataquis County where snow depth is highest and response to heavy precip/snowmelt is more rapid. As a result, will have to watch flood potential as the event becomes more in focus this weekend.
The high tide for Monday morning will be near 9am LST. It is not a particularly high astro tide, but high enough to warrant concern. Max storm surge could coincide with the high tide. A storm surge of 2 feet is certainly a possibility. In addition, wave runup could deliver rocks on exposed roads on Mount Desert Island and the Schoodic Peninsula.
Cold air advection arrives Monday afternoon. Rain will change to snow with an inch or two conceivable in Aroostook County and degradation to travel conditions as temps plummet below the freezing mark. Winds will continue to be the story Monday night with gusts above 30 mph most of the day across the entire area.
Temperatures decrease towards seasonable readings for the remainder of the week. A series of moisture-starved northern stream clippers will move across the area for the remainder of the week. None look particularly promising for replenishing snow cover in a significant way.
AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
NEAR TERM: Aroostook Terminals...MVFR cigs continue with local IFR at KFVE. The lower clouds should begin to dissipate toward morning, but confidence remains low regarding the timing and extent of the clearing. VFR conditions are expected Friday, although can't rule out MVFR persisting in the morning. NW winds 5-10 kts.
Downeast Terminals...VFR conditions overnight and Friday. NW winds around 5 kts.
SHORT TERM: Friday night into Saturday...Mostly VFR until Saturday afternoon when MVFR cigs overspread the area from west to east. Light winds.
Saturday night and Sunday...IFR to LIFR cigs with IFR vis in fog Saturday night into early Sunday morning. Freezing drizzle is possible Saturday night into early Sunday morning. South winds steadily increasing towards 10 to 20 kt by later Sunday afternoon. LLWS possible by Sunday evening.
Sunday night...IFR to LIFR cigs, IFR to LIFR vis in fog and drizzle, LLWS expected. South winds increasing all night with gusts to 50 kt possible by late night.
Monday...Mostly IFR to LIFR cigs. IFR vis in locally heavy rain.
LLWS continues. South winds gusting to 50 kt in the morning, becoming westerly 20 to 30 kt in the afternoon.
Monday night and Tuesday...MVFR cigs north of GNR and HUL, otherwise VFR. Tempo IFR in snow showers north of GNR and HUL.
West winds 15 to 30 kt.
MARINE
NEAR TERM: Winds and seas will remain below SCA conditions tonight and Friday. Seas 1-2 ft.
SHORT TERM: The primary concern will be the potential for storm force winds and seas approaching 20 ft later Sunday night into Monday. Have bumped up winds and seas with this update. There is still a chance the stronger winds will track east of the waters, but the higher probabilities lie with the stronger winds.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...None.
MARINE...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 908 PM EST Thu Dec 7 2023
SYNOPSIS
High pressure will cross the area overnight into Friday. A warm front will approach Friday night then cross the region Saturday. Intensifying low pressure tracking across Maine will draw a cold front across the region Sunday night into Monday.
High pressure builds Monday night into Tuesday.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
9:08 PM Update: Satellite pictures and observations confirm that more low clouds have dropped south into northern Aroostook County along with flurries. Some of the lower clouds have made it all the way south into parts of eastern Washington County.
The cloud forecast for the remainder of the night remains a challenge with very low forecaster confidence. Given the overall persistence of the clouds since last night will side toward it remaining partly to mostly cloudy across the north while it should remain clear from Bangor south to the Hancock County coast. Where the sky is clear, temperatures have dropped to zero to 5 above, but where the sky is cloudy temps are mostly in the teens. Given the difficulty in trying to predict what will happen with the areas of stratus overnight, it makes the temperature forecast a real challenge. If an area can clear out for just a couple of hours before daybreak temps could quickly plummet. For now, will adjust temps to reflect the current observations as of 9 PM, but am reluctant to make too many changes to the overnight lows. In some areas an argument could be made to raise them across the north, but if the clouds move out later tonight it would end up being a mistake.
Previous discussion: A mid level trof exiting to the east will continue to hold shortwave energy over the northeast. For this evening, isolated snow showers will continue for eastern parts for the St John Valley, Central Aroostook, and Southern Aroostook. Vorticity models show the vort max sagging south tonight, mainly into the Central Highlands. However, the NW flow in the upper levels will bring drier air into the region, helping to reduce moisture and cloud cover. The early cloud cover in the north will help keep temps above zero, except in the North Woods where winds will be lighter allowing for more cooling. For the south, clear skies will drop temps into the single digits.
For Friday, upper level ridging will start to move in behind the trof. RH models show the clouds in the north completely clearing by later in the morning, but high-res QPF models show some isolated showers in NB. Cannot rule out the possibility of a morning snow shower in this area. By the afternoon, expect sunny skies with temps in the 20s across the region.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
Radiational cooling with a very shallow inversion is the forecast challenge for Friday night. Have leaned towards the lower guidance given the usual troubles of models with shallow winter radiation inversions. Readings below zero can be expected across much of Aroostook County while teens are forecast for Bangor and Downeast.
Warm advection and increasing cloudiness will the story for the weekend. Expect sunshine on Saturday morning to give way to clouds overspreading from the southwest. The concern for later Saturday afternoon into Sunday morning will be freezing drizzle...most notably in upslope locations such as Piscataquis County and northern Penobscot County. Strong low level moisture advection and warming temperatures over existing snow pack will likely result in fog formation Saturday night into Sunday morning for much of the area.
Any frozen precip exits the area Sunday morning. Low clouds will remain entrenched over the area all day, but warm advection will lift temperatures towards the mid 40s to around 50F on the coast. Fog could linger well into the morning, but increasing south winds later in the day reduce coverage mostly to high terrain and upslope areas. Light rain and drizzle can be expected Sunday, but the heavier precip will remain west until Sunday night.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
Temperatures warm steadily all of Sunday night and the high temperature for Monday could occur before daybreak. Winds will steadily ramp up through the night. The strongest winds will be after midnight Sunday night through Monday morning. Have favored NBM winds for this forecast that offers 60 mph or higher gusts on the coast and nearly 50 mph at Bangor. Based on the forecast pressure gradient and low level jet strength, local rules of thumb strongly suggest wind headlines will be needed and power outages can be anticipated. The only caveat is the low track trending further east as advertised by the hemispheric GEMS.
Across all of the models, the forecast low track has been trending slowly east in recent days.
Two other concerns with the Monday event will be precipitation and coastal flooding. In general, current projections are for one to two inches of rainfall. Deep Atlantic moisture with PWs over 1.2 inches are anticipated. WPC has placed the area in a marginal risk in the ERO. The good news is that the system is progressive and not expected to linger over the area for a long time. The heaviest precip will fall in higher terrain in locations such as Piscataquis County where snow depth is highest and response to heavy precip/snowmelt is more rapid. As a result, will have to watch flood potential as the event becomes more in focus this weekend.
The high tide for Monday morning will be near 9am LST. It is not a particularly high astro tide, but high enough to warrant concern. Max storm surge could coincide with the high tide. A storm surge of 2 feet is certainly a possibility. In addition, wave runup could deliver rocks on exposed roads on Mount Desert Island and the Schoodic Peninsula.
Cold air advection arrives Monday afternoon. Rain will change to snow with an inch or two conceivable in Aroostook County and degradation to travel conditions as temps plummet below the freezing mark. Winds will continue to be the story Monday night with gusts above 30 mph most of the day across the entire area.
Temperatures decrease towards seasonable readings for the remainder of the week. A series of moisture-starved northern stream clippers will move across the area for the remainder of the week. None look particularly promising for replenishing snow cover in a significant way.
AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
NEAR TERM: Aroostook Terminals...MVFR cigs continue with local IFR at KFVE. The lower clouds should begin to dissipate toward morning, but confidence remains low regarding the timing and extent of the clearing. VFR conditions are expected Friday, although can't rule out MVFR persisting in the morning. NW winds 5-10 kts.
Downeast Terminals...VFR conditions overnight and Friday. NW winds around 5 kts.
SHORT TERM: Friday night into Saturday...Mostly VFR until Saturday afternoon when MVFR cigs overspread the area from west to east. Light winds.
Saturday night and Sunday...IFR to LIFR cigs with IFR vis in fog Saturday night into early Sunday morning. Freezing drizzle is possible Saturday night into early Sunday morning. South winds steadily increasing towards 10 to 20 kt by later Sunday afternoon. LLWS possible by Sunday evening.
Sunday night...IFR to LIFR cigs, IFR to LIFR vis in fog and drizzle, LLWS expected. South winds increasing all night with gusts to 50 kt possible by late night.
Monday...Mostly IFR to LIFR cigs. IFR vis in locally heavy rain.
LLWS continues. South winds gusting to 50 kt in the morning, becoming westerly 20 to 30 kt in the afternoon.
Monday night and Tuesday...MVFR cigs north of GNR and HUL, otherwise VFR. Tempo IFR in snow showers north of GNR and HUL.
West winds 15 to 30 kt.
MARINE
NEAR TERM: Winds and seas will remain below SCA conditions tonight and Friday. Seas 1-2 ft.
SHORT TERM: The primary concern will be the potential for storm force winds and seas approaching 20 ft later Sunday night into Monday. Have bumped up winds and seas with this update. There is still a chance the stronger winds will track east of the waters, but the higher probabilities lie with the stronger winds.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...None.
MARINE...None.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| PSBM1 - 8410140 - Eastport, ME | 14 mi | 45 min | WNW 4.1G | 18°F | 45°F | 29.87 | ||
| CFWM1 - Cutler Farris Wharf, ME (8411060) | 30 mi | 45 min | NW 1.9G | 15°F | 29.91 |
toggle option: (graph/table)
Airport Reports
EDIT (on/off) Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
Wind History from BHB
(wind in knots)Robbinston
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:05 AM EST 2.73 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 12:57 AM EST Moonrise
Thu -- 06:16 AM EST 17.69 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:52 AM EST Sunrise
Thu -- 12:34 PM EST 3.01 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 12:54 PM EST Moonset
Thu -- 03:46 PM EST Sunset
Thu -- 06:40 PM EST 17.40 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:05 AM EST 2.73 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 12:57 AM EST Moonrise
Thu -- 06:16 AM EST 17.69 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:52 AM EST Sunrise
Thu -- 12:34 PM EST 3.01 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 12:54 PM EST Moonset
Thu -- 03:46 PM EST Sunset
Thu -- 06:40 PM EST 17.40 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Robbinston, Maine, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 2.7 |
| 1 am |
| 3.6 |
| 2 am |
| 6.1 |
| 3 am |
| 9.4 |
| 4 am |
| 12.9 |
| 5 am |
| 16 |
| 6 am |
| 17.6 |
| 7 am |
| 17.1 |
| 8 am |
| 15 |
| 9 am |
| 12 |
| 10 am |
| 8.7 |
| 11 am |
| 5.5 |
| 12 pm |
| 3.4 |
| 1 pm |
| 3.2 |
| 2 pm |
| 5 |
| 3 pm |
| 7.9 |
| 4 pm |
| 11.3 |
| 5 pm |
| 14.6 |
| 6 pm |
| 16.9 |
| 7 pm |
| 17.3 |
| 8 pm |
| 15.7 |
| 9 pm |
| 13 |
| 10 pm |
| 9.7 |
| 11 pm |
| 6.3 |
Tide / Current for Grand Manan Channel (Bay of Fundy Entrance), New Brunswick Current
EDIT (on/off) HelpGrand Manan Channel (Bay of Fundy Entrance)
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:26 AM AST 0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 01:57 AM AST Moonrise
Thu -- 03:39 AM AST 1.56 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 07:19 AM AST -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 07:51 AM AST Sunrise
Thu -- 10:30 AM AST -1.31 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 01:23 PM AST 0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 01:54 PM AST Moonset
Thu -- 04:14 PM AST 1.24 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 04:46 PM AST Sunset
Thu -- 07:33 PM AST -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 10:43 PM AST -1.24 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:26 AM AST 0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 01:57 AM AST Moonrise
Thu -- 03:39 AM AST 1.56 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 07:19 AM AST -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 07:51 AM AST Sunrise
Thu -- 10:30 AM AST -1.31 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 01:23 PM AST 0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 01:54 PM AST Moonset
Thu -- 04:14 PM AST 1.24 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 04:46 PM AST Sunset
Thu -- 07:33 PM AST -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 10:43 PM AST -1.24 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Grand Manan Channel (Bay of Fundy Entrance), New Brunswick Current, knots
| 12 am |
| -0.3 |
| 1 am |
| 0.4 |
| 2 am |
| 1.1 |
| 3 am |
| 1.5 |
| 4 am |
| 1.5 |
| 5 am |
| 1.3 |
| 6 am |
| 0.8 |
| 7 am |
| 0.2 |
| 8 am |
| -0.4 |
| 9 am |
| -0.9 |
| 10 am |
| -1.3 |
| 11 am |
| -1.3 |
| 12 pm |
| -0.9 |
| 1 pm |
| -0.3 |
| 2 pm |
| 0.4 |
| 3 pm |
| 1 |
| 4 pm |
| 1.2 |
| 5 pm |
| 1.1 |
| 6 pm |
| 0.8 |
| 7 pm |
| 0.3 |
| 8 pm |
| -0.3 |
| 9 pm |
| -0.8 |
| 10 pm |
| -1.2 |
| 11 pm |
| -1.2 |
Caribou, ME,
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