Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Neskowin, OR

SHORT TERM
Today through Wednesday Night...A broad low pressure system will continue to bring cool and unsettled weather through Tuesday, with light showers expected. Although the flow pattern is not especially favorable, cooler air aloft will boost instability, resulting in around 200-350 J/kg of CAPE. This supports a 15-30% probability of thunderstorms through this evening across our CWA Also, long skinny CAPE seen within model soundings point towards the probability of small hail developing within any cell (thunderstorm or not). Any hail that does develop will likely be less that 0.25 inches in diameter (pea size or smaller) and will likely not linger too long once the cell that produced it leaves the area. Still, there could be very brief periods of time where roads and sidewalks are covered with small hail and as a result could bring about slick surfaces. Total rainfall today will generally range from 0.10 to 0.30 inches in the valleys and along the coast, with higher totals of 0.25 to 0.60 inches along the coast and in the Cascades.

On Tuesday, shower activity will gradually taper off as the upper low shifts southeast. A weak shortwave ridge will follow, ushering in a slightly drier and more stable pattern. Still, a few light showers may linger, with up to 0.05 inches of additional precipitation possible in the interior valley and up to 0.20 inches for the Cascades. By Wednesday, the shortwave ridge pattern will develop further and result in warmer and drier conditions. /42

LONG TERM
Thursday through Sunday...Precipitation chances on Thursday return as a another broad trough will likely bring another round of light precipitation and maintain slightly warmer than normal temperatures through the weekend. WPC Clusters are generally points towards ridging over the eastern Pacific with troughing over the middle of CONUS for the start of next week. Overall, expect daytime highs in the 50s along the coast and 60s for inland areas through the latter part of this week and into the upcoming weekend. /42

AVIATION
An upper level low offshore will move inland over the region through today. Scattered rain showers will thus continue through Monday afternoon, diminishing in coverage by 00-06z Tue, initially along the coast and subsequently inland. Chances for MVFR cigs increase to 30-60% after 14-16z Mon before trending back to VFR as cigs lift by 21z Mon, except along the coast where MVFR cigs may linger later. There will also be a 15-25% chance of thunderstorms this afternoon, although confidence in timing and coverage remain too low to merit PROB30 mention. Any thunderstorm may be capable of producing small hail, the size of peas or less, and briefly restricted vis.

Along the coast, south to southeast flow at 5 kt or less will turn out of the west after 21-24z Mon at 5-10 kt. Inland, light and variable flow through the morning will increase out of the west to northwest at 5-10 kt after 21-24z Mon, before diminishing to 5 kt or less out of the southwest after 06z Tue. Thunderstorms may produce briefly gusty winds through this afternoon.

PDX AND APPROACHES...Scattered rain showers continue through much of the period as an upper low moves inland, with shower coverage finally lessening after 06z Tue. Chances for MVFR cigs at 2-3 kft increase to around 40-60% after 14-16z Mon, before VFR cigs are favored to return by 19-21z Mon. There is a 20-25% chance of thunderstorms this afternoon, which may result in brief vis restrictions and/or small (pea-sized or less) hail, although confidence in occurrence and timing of any impacts is low. Light and variable winds continue through 18z Mon, then increasing to 5-10 kt out of the northwest through the afternoon. Heavier rain showers or thunderstorms may yield periods of gusty winds through 03z Tue, before winds otherwise diminish to 5 kt or less after 06z Tue. -Picard

MARINE
A weak surface low west of Cape Blanco continues to fill as it tracks to the northeast toward the central Oregon coast through this morning. Southerly winds will diminish early, then turn out of the northwest behind the low this afternoon.

High pressure building over the northeast Pacific will yield northwest flow through at least Wednesday night. Gusts of 20-25 kt beyond 30 NM will see fresh northwest swell rising to 9-11 ft at 10 seconds Monday night into Tuesday, before diminishing into Wednesday. Beyond 30 NM, there is a low chance, 10-20%, of maximum gusts reaching gale force, with the highest likelihood northwest of the mouth of the Columbia River. An approaching trough will see flow turn out of the west to southwest Thursday into Friday, before northwest flow returns for the weekend. -Picard

PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...None.
WA...None.
PZ...None.