Wednesday, August21, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Neskowin, OR

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Sunrise 6:19AMSunset 8:11PM Wednesday August 21, 2019 9:01 AM PDT (16:01 UTC) Moonrise 10:17PMMoonset 11:22AM Illumination 65% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 21 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ255 Expires:201908212330;;976831 Fzus56 Kpqr 211002 Cwfpqr Coastal Waters Forecast National Weather Service Portland Or 302 Am Pdt Wed Aug 21 2019 Coastal Waters From Cape Shoalwater Washington To Florence Oregon And Westward 60 Nm Pzz250-255-212330- Coastal Waters From Cape Shoalwater Wa To Cascade Head Or Out 10 Nm-coastal Waters From Cascade Head To Florence Or Out 10 Nm- 302 Am Pdt Wed Aug 21 2019
.small craft advisory in effect through this afternoon...
Today..S wind 20 to 25 kt, easing to 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves S 4 ft at 5 seconds. W swell 4 ft at 12 seconds, building to 8 ft at 12 seconds in the afternoon. Rain. Slight chance of tstms in the morning.
Tonight..NW wind 10 to 15 kt. Gusts to 20 kt in the evening. Wind waves nw 3 ft at 4 seconds. W swell 6 ft at 10 seconds. Chance of showers in the evening.
Thu..N wind 10 to 15 kt. Gusts to 15 kt, becoming 20 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves N 2 ft at 4 seconds. NW swell 7 ft at 11 seconds.
Thu night..N wind 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt, easing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt after midnight. Wind waves N 3 ft at 5 seconds. NW swell 7 ft at 10 seconds.
Fri..N wind 10 kt with gusts to 15 kt. Wind waves N 2 ft at 4 seconds. NW swell 5 ft at 8 seconds.
Fri night..NW wind 10 to 15 kt, becoming N 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Wind waves N 2 ft at 4 seconds. NW swell 4 ft at 8 seconds.
Sat..NW wind 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 1 ft. W swell 5 ft.
Sun..N wind 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 3 ft. W swell 6 ft.
PZZ200 302 Am Pdt Wed Aug 21 2019
Synopsis for the southern washington and northern oregon coast.. A front will move through the waters today bringing small craft advisory conditions to all of our waters. This front will likely move onshore by late this afternoon, with some W to nw swell lingering into Thursday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Neskowin, OR
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location: 45.13, -124.05     debug


Area Discussion for - Portland, OR
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Fxus66 kpqr 211037
afdpqr
area forecast discussion
national service portland or
336 am pdt Wed aug 21 2019

Synopsis After a wet Wednesday, expect near average temperatures
and a mixture of clouds and sunshine through the weekend before
hotter weather returns next week.

Short term Today through Saturday... Water vapor satellite imagery
reveals a distinct shortwave trough swinging eastward across the
northeastern pacific. A stream of subtropical moisture continues to
spread northeastward in advance of this feature. Precipitable water
values feeding ahead of a surface front remain impressive with
1.7-2+" analyzed off the california coast by amsu. Closer to home,
values of 1.5-1.7" are streaming northward off the oregon coast.

Naefs return intervals still suggest these values are observed
approximately once every 10-30 years or so around this time of the
year.

While nearly all locations should at least see some light rain today,
there remains a large spread among the GEFS and ecs ensemble systems
on how much rain will actually fall at any given point in our cwa. It
seems rainfall amounts ranging from just a few hundredths of an inch
to 1" across the lowest elevations are on the table. With that said,
the nationalblend suggests there's a 90% chance QPF will be limited
to under .60" at portland and astoria, 0.70" at eugene and 0.80" at
newport. The operational gfs, ec and gem all suggest the highest
rainfall amounts will likely fall south of a line extending between
newport and the columbia river gorge so have trended QPF towards this
general idea. Interestingly, models suggest much of this
precipitation will form largely in place across the aforementioned
area vs. Advecting into the region. Goes-17 nighttime microphysics
indicates there is a bit of a sucker-hole in mid and high level
clouds off the southern oregon coast, which is unnerving given this
is upstream of the region and not much is happening. However, there
is an area of mid level moisture and instability lifting northward
between 40-42n off the northern california coast apparent on the
same imagery. It appears it will be the interaction of this moisture
with the lift ahead of the upper level trough that will produce the
area of higher rainfall. Now it's just a question of whether or not
this moisture will arrive in time to impact our CWA or if it will
come together more over southern and central oregon and largely
bypass our cwa.

Once the low level front moves across the region late this afternoon
and evening, westerly flow and shallow instability behind the front
should lead to a continuation of light showers across the coast range
and cascades tonight. Expect rain chances to diminish late tonight
into Thursday morning across these areas as heights build behind the
passage of the upper level trough.

Thereafter, low level northwesterly flow under zonal flow aloft
should keep temperatures near average for the date through Saturday.

A shallow shortwave trough moving eastward across british columbia on
Friday may drag a dying front into our northern coastal zones and
interior southwest washington Saturday. Operational models suggest
some light rain will occur in the aforementioned area so have
maintained slight chance to chance pops in this region for Saturday.

Also, it should be noted that we could come close to setting our
record precipitable water value observed at our ksle observing site
this afternoon. According to the SPC sounding climatology, it stands
at 1.73". It appears we will fall short based on the precipitable
water values currently derived by amsu off the oregon coast, but it
should be somewhat close given the GEFS and eps output. Neuman

Long term Saturday night through Wednesday... A northwesterly flow
pattern under zonal flow aloft will continue the near average
temperatures Sunday and Monday. Nearly all the main operational
models and their ensembles have been suggesting shortwave ridging
will then build northward over the eastern pacific before pushing
eastward into the pacific northwest during the middle part of next
week. This pattern would likely result in a several day stretch of
90+ temperatures for the region with even some potential for the
coast to heat up as well. Continued the trend of showing this pattern
coming to fruition next Tuesday and Wednesday.

With that said, the latest iteration of models do show a shortwave
trough dropping southeastward near the continental divide early next
week. While this would be a favorable set up to produce an easterly
wind pattern over the region as currently depicted, it's also close
enough to the region given the time between now and then that we do
wonder if it will shift closer to the region with time and the heat
wave will be delayed or be a no show. Generally when our main
operational models and their ensembles suggest a major shortwave
ridge moving over the region 8-10 days out, it has verified
remarkably well over the past several summers. Nonetheless, there
have been a few instances this summer where was certainly modest
agreement, albeit not as good as this particular case, a similar
pattern would unfold, but failed to materialize. Neuman

Aviation Frontal system offshore will move into the coastal
waters this morning and move ashore in the afternoon. The more
significant impacts to flight conditions come in the morning
hours to the coast and in the afternoon for inland areas. Expect
widespread MVFR conditions with the system as it moves through.

Coastal areas likely to have MVFR conditions by 12z or shortly
after continuing into the evening possibly overnight. For inland
sites, conditions expected to lower 19z to 21z time frame with
improving conditions after 06z thu. However some models show that
areas toward keug may remain MVFR through much of the night.

Kpdx and approaches...VFR to start out with increasing high
clouds. Expect CIGS to lower to near 4000 feet around 18z with
light rain. MVFR CIGS around 2500-3000 feet should develop after
21z or so. Should see improvement toVFR after 06z thu, but
forecast confidence is not very high.

Marine Southerly winds gusting 25 to 30 kt in the northern
zones (pzz270 & 250) and are slowly picking up in the zones to
the south as a front approaches. Expect the front to move into
the outer waters around midday and ashore by mid afternoon in
the north and late afternoon towards florence. Northwesterly
winds follow the front.

Seas have become very steep with buoys reporting 6 to 8 ft with a
period of 6 to 7 seconds. Seas may near 10 feet, particularly in
the outer waters this morning through afternoon. There is a good
northwest fetch off the washington coast that will bring a fresh
northwest swell around 10 feet to the waters on Thursday, so have
put out an advisory for that.

A more typical summer pattern sets up Thursday into next week as
high pressure builds offshore with a thermal trough along the
northern california and south oregon coasts for predominantly
north winds.

Pqr watches warnings advisories
Or... None.

Wa... None.

Pz... Small craft advisory until 11 am pdt this morning for waters
from CAPE shoalwater wa to florence or from 10 to 60 nm.

Small craft advisory from 3 am to 11 am pdt Thursday for waters
from CAPE shoalwater wa to cascade head or from 10 to 60
nm.

Small craft advisory until 5 pm pdt this afternoon for coastal
waters from CAPE shoalwater wa to florence or out 10 nm.

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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
TLBO3 - 9437540 - Garibaldi, Tillamook Bay, OR 30 mi49 min 60°F1015.9 hPa
SBEO3 - 9435380 - South Beach, OR 35 mi49 min SSW 5.1 G 12 61°F 55°F1016.6 hPa
NWPO3 - Newport, OR 36 mi61 min S 9.9 G 12 59°F
46050 - STONEWALL BANKS - 20NM West of Newport, OR 40 mi31 min SSE 14 G 18 1016.5 hPa

Wind History for Garibaldi, OR
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Tillamook, Tillamook Airport, OR24 mi86 minESE 310.00 miOvercast61°F53°F77%1016.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KTMK

Wind History from TMK (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmW3CalmS3NW6S10SW9SW8
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SW9SW9SW7----CalmE3CalmCalmSW4E5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoCalmCalmN3NW8NW11NW11NW12NW15
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W8------Calm--SE3--CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmW6NW6NW8W8NW11
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W8------CalmSE4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Nestucca Bay entrance, Oregon
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Nestucca Bay entrance
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Wed -- 04:41 AM PDT     5.83 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:23 AM PDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 10:57 AM PDT     1.66 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 12:21 PM PDT     Moonset
Wed -- 05:08 PM PDT     6.80 feet High Tide
Wed -- 08:12 PM PDT     Sunset
Wed -- 11:16 PM PDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.12.9455.75.85.44.63.62.61.91.722.94.25.46.46.86.65.94.83.72.61.9

Tide / Current Tables for Taft, Siletz Bay, Oregon
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Taft
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Wed -- 04:34 AM PDT     4.98 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:24 AM PDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 10:58 AM PDT     1.36 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 12:21 PM PDT     Moonset
Wed -- 05:01 PM PDT     5.81 feet High Tide
Wed -- 08:12 PM PDT     Sunset
Wed -- 11:17 PM PDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.72.43.44.34.94.94.63.932.21.61.41.72.53.64.75.55.85.654.13.12.21.6

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Portland, OR (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Portland, OR
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.