Monday, September20, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Neskowin, OR

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:55AMSunset 7:17PM Sunday September 19, 2021 11:01 PM PDT (06:01 UTC) Moonrise 6:18PMMoonset 4:17AM Illumination 98% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ255 Coastal Waters From Cascade Head To Florence Or Out 10 Nm- 711 Pm Pdt Sun Sep 19 2021
.small craft advisory remains in effect through late Monday night...
Rest of tonight..SW wind 5 to 10 kt, becoming S after midnight. Wind waves S 1 ft at 4 seconds. W swell 10 ft at 12 seconds.
Mon..E wind to 5 kt, becoming N 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves E 1 ft at 4 seconds, shifting to the N 4 ft at 5 seconds in the afternoon. W swell 9 ft at 12 seconds.
Mon night..N wind 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt, easing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt after midnight. Wind waves N 4 ft at 5 seconds. NW swell 7 ft at 11 seconds.
Tue..NE wind 5 to 10 kt with gusts to 15 kt. Wind waves ne 2 ft at 4 seconds. NW swell 6 ft at 11 seconds.
Tue night..N wind 5 to 10 kt, becoming E after midnight. Wind waves ne 1 ft at 4 seconds. NW swell 6 ft at 11 seconds.
Wed..N wind 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 3 ft. W swell 7 ft.
Wed night..N wind 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 3 ft. NW swell 7 ft.
Thu..N wind 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 4 ft. NW swell 7 ft.
Fri..N wind 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft. NW swell 6 ft.
PZZ200 711 Pm Pdt Sun Sep 19 2021
Synopsis for the southern washington and northern oregon coast.. High pressure builds offshore tonight and Monday. Meanwhile surface thermal low pressure expands north along the coast from nw california. Southerly winds through Monday morning will veer becoming northerly and gusty by Monday afternoon. Winds and seas then ease Tuesday until Thursday when northerly winds increase again.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Neskowin, OR
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location: 45.13, -124.05     debug


Area Discussion for - Portland, OR
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FXUS66 KPQR 200428 AAA AFDPQR

Area Forecast Discussion . Updated National Weather Service Portland OR 928 PM PDT Sun Sep 19 2021

Updated aviation and marine .

SYNOPSIS. Cool and showery weather will continue into this evening before warmer and drier conditions move in for the coming work week and likely last through next weekend.

SHORT TERM. Tonight through Wednesday . Water vapor satellite imagery this afternoon reveals the shortwave trough responsible for the unsettled weather over the past 48 hours sliding eastward into the northern Rocky Mountain states. Shortwave ridging over the eastern Pacific will continue to shift eastward into the Pacific Northwest over the next 24 hours. This is currently resulting in a subsidence inversion slowly lowering across the region this afternoon. However, daytime heating has allowed the lower atmosphere to destabilize underneath this inversion aloft and resulted in plenty of additional showers and a couple short lived thunderstorms to develop. Between the lowering subsidence inversion and the loss of daytime heating this evening, expect showers to come to an end rather quickly overnight.

There should be enough lingering low level moisture for plenty of low clouds and patchy valley fog around daybreak on Monday. As shortwave ridging pushes into the region, our flow will turn more northerly Monday. This could result in clouds making a slower departure across the southern Willamette Valley than elsewhere depending on their coverage to begin the morning. Either way, this should keep temperatures from rebounding too quickly on Monday with high temperatures topping out near 70F for inland valleys. Expect breezy northerly winds along the Oregon coast and in the Willamette Valley Monday afternoon and evening.

Models are in good agreement shortwave ridging will push over the area Tuesday. This will result in a weak thermally induced surface trough developing near the Oregon coast Monday night. Models are in good agreement it will push inland towards the Cascades Tuesday afternoon. This will allow the area to dry out more and temperatures to moderate further with inland high temperatures likely topping out in the low 80s Tuesday afternoon.

Models continue to be in general agreement on a shortwave trough moving towards the Pacific Northwest Tuesday night into Wednesday. It looks like it will shear apart and do little more than increase mid and high level cloudiness, increase onshore flow and cool temperatures across the region on Wednesday. In addition, this storm system will push a weakening front towards the region as well, but confidence remains low that it will hold together enough to make it to the north coast and bring a few patches of light rain and drizzle. /Neuman

LONG TERM. Wednesday night through Sunday . Models and their ensembles are in good agreement a shortwave ridge will build back over the Pacific Northwest late in the work week. This will more than likely bring another multi-day stretch of dry weather and mild temperatures to end the work week and to begin next weekend. Most scenarios keep the area dry through Sunday, but there are a few ensemble members of the GEFS, EPS and CMCE systems that slide a weakening shortwave trough into the Pacific Northwest some time Sunday so cannot completely rule out rain entering the picture around that time. For now the odds appear less than mentionable thresholds (15%) so the official forecast remains dry with temperatures remaining above average temperatures. /Neuman

AVIATION. 04z update: Not much change in thinking with the 06z TAF package as showers quickly dissipate and yield prevailing VFR conditions across the area. The main question continues to be whether conditions otherwise favorable to fog development will be hampered by expected stratus development overnight in the Willamette Valley. Left fog in at the favored sites, but may need to revisit with the 12z package. Previous discussion follows. /CB

00Z TAF Package preliminary thoughts: High pressure starting to build overhead from the west. Showers continue to move onshore and a line of them with a single embedded thunderstorm is crossing the Willamette Valley. Expect to continue seeing sporadic showers cross the Willamette Valley/I-5 corridor this afternoon, especially given a slight lifting enhancement from a 120 kt jet-stream crossing overhead the next few hours. Showers will quickly dissipate early this evening as warming aloft further stabilizes the atmosphere. Winds will become light overnight and will expect stratus to develop over much of the area after midnight. There will be a bit of a race to see of fog can develop at the favored terminals (KAST, KHIO, KUAO, and KEUG) before the 015-025 AGL stratus arrives. Give about a 40% chance of fog development at those sites. Have felt most confident at KONP where fog is already included in the TAF. An argument against fog development is weak offshore flow may develop nearer sunrise, but feel the flow will be too weak and too late arriving in this case. Whatever low clouds develop overnight will start to dissipate as early as 20/17Z. Offshore will further limit cloud development Monday afternoon although will expect some fair weather cumulus development, mainly over the terrain, given the recent rains and saturated soils. /JBonk

For detailed regional Pac NW aviation weather information, go online to: https://weather.gov/zse

KPDX AND APPROACHES . Shower activity has largely tapered off, yielding VFR conditions and SCT to BKN cloud decks between 040-060 AGL. Otherwise, continue to see terrain obscuration, especially over the eastern approaches. Overnight, expect a stratus deck somewhere between 015-025 AGL to develop over the field and approaches to remain through the morning arrivals. Stratus should clear after 18z and yield VFR through Monday evening. CB/JBonk

MARINE. Evening update: Recent observations and latest wave guidance suggest the ongoing westerly swell will be enough to maintain seas around 10 ft overnight in the Columbia River Bar, Have therefore extended the Small Craft Advisory to run through 7 AM Monday. Otherwise, no changes to the coastal zones. Previous discussion follows. /CB

Westerly swell is running a couple feet above the highest guidance with combined seas 10-12 feet common. Have manually increased the swell for the next 12 hours by 2 feet to start then tapering down tomorrow morning. This then necessitated extending the current SCA past the previously scheduled end time of 0500 Monday.

Surface high pressure is building over the waters the next 24 hours while surface thermal low pressure will extend northward along the coast from northern California. Southerly winds along the immediate coast will switch to northerly Monday. Looks like winds will gust 20-25 kts Monday afternoon through Monday night for the central waters and a significant portion of the northern waters.

Given the extension well into Monday morning and the wind threat beginning Monday afternoon, have simply extended the current Small Craft Advisory through 5 AM Tuesday. Felt the time between the events was too small to warrant separate statements.

Weaker northerly flow and seas mainly 6-8 feet will prevail through Wednesday. High pressure moves closer to the coast Thursday to tighten up pressure gradients and likely bring another round of northerly SCA winds. /JBonk

PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. OR . None. WA . None. PZ . Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM PDT Tuesday for coastal waters from Cape Shoalwater WA to Florence OR out 60 nm.

Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM PDT Monday for Columbia River Bar.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
TLBO3 - 9437540 - Garibaldi, Tillamook Bay, OR 30 mi43 min 56°F1025.2 hPa
SBEO3 - 9435380 - South Beach, OR 35 mi43 min Calm G 1 54°F 52°F1025.4 hPa
NWPO3 - Newport, OR 36 mi61 min S 5.1 G 5.1 53°F
46097 37 mi131 min 54°F 52°F1024.2 hPa
46050 - STONEWALL BANKS - 20NM West of Newport, OR 41 mi21 min WSW 5.8 G 7.8 54°F1024.5 hPa

Wind History for Garibaldi, OR
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Tillamook, Tillamook Airport, OR24 mi66 minN 01.25 miFog/Mist54°F52°F94%1025.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KTMK

Wind History from TMK (wind in knots)
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Tide / Current Tables for Nestucca Bay entrance, Oregon
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Nestucca Bay entrance
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Mon -- 12:23 AM PDT     7.78 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:26 AM PDT     Moonset
Mon -- 07:00 AM PDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:10 AM PDT     0.01 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 01:13 PM PDT     7.37 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:54 PM PDT     Full Moon
Mon -- 07:16 PM PDT     Sunset
Mon -- 07:25 PM PDT     1.25 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:38 PM PDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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7.77.66.85.33.51.80.600.41.63.45.26.77.37.16.24.83.321.31.42.43.95.6

Tide / Current Tables for Taft, Siletz Bay, Oregon
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Taft
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Mon -- 12:16 AM PDT     6.65 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:27 AM PDT     Moonset
Mon -- 07:01 AM PDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:11 AM PDT     0.01 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 01:06 PM PDT     6.30 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:54 PM PDT     Full Moon
Mon -- 07:16 PM PDT     Sunset
Mon -- 07:26 PM PDT     1.02 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:38 PM PDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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6.66.55.74.431.50.500.31.42.94.65.86.365.242.71.71.11.223.44.9

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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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