Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for East Jordan, MI

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
Issued at 213 PM EDT Wed Jun 18 2025

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast:

Shortwave trough working steadily east into the western Great Lakes this afternoon, with its attendant weak surface reflection pivoting northeast along the ridge/trough interface into Illinois (helped along by one impressive mesoscale convective induced vortex).
Stationary front working northeast from this low into southern lower Michigan, with sustained warm and moist advection along and north of it kicking off rounds of mostly light showers and sprinkles across parts of northern lower Michigan. Warm sector locked south of that stationary front, and that is where primary severe threat remains.

Shortwave trough will cut across our area tonight/Thursday morning, exiting off to our east Thursday afternoon. Weak surface response and that MCV will continue to ride up lower Michigan baroclinic axis, reaching vicinity southeast Ontario by Thursday morning.

Primary Forecast Concerns:

Shower/storm evolution into early Thursday. Heavy rain and severe threat will need addressing as well.

Details:

Simple extrapolation and current observation trends support little northward movement to central/southern Michigan frontal zone the remainder of this afternoon into this evening, keeping the much more unstable warm sector locked across southern Michigan. Accordingly, best severe storm potential will reside in that area and points south. Still can't rule out a few stronger/marginally severe storms across at least southern sections of our area, but definitely not expecting anything widespread. Localized areas of heavy rain (inch or greater) also remain possible with deep available moisture (precipitable water values up and over 1.50 inches) and persistent convergence/hints of transient frontogenetical responses north of that stationary front later this afternoon into the early overnight...especially along and southeast of a line extending from Alpena to Cadillac. Again, heaviest rain rates likely to remain with much deeper convection to our south, so current thought is any potential for worrisome widespread rainfall totals looks minimal...although some local impacts are indeed possible. Shower threat to continue right into early Thursday morning with approach of primary upper level support. Threat for any stronger storms and heavy rain will however likely end by early morning.

Lingering showers into Thursday morning, expecting the afternoon to trend dryer as wave pivots off to the east and mid level heights begin to rebound some. Near normal temperatures Thursday, with highs largely ranging through the 70s.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Issued at 213 PM EDT Wed Jun 18 2025

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast:

All systems still a go for much warmer (downright hot) temperatures to spread into the Great Lakes later this weekend into early next week. Expansion of southeast Conus centered upper level ridge and digging west coast troughing places our area in the cross-hairs of deep layer southwest flow, with that flow having a direct connection to southern Plains heat dome. Ridge/trough interface across the far western Great Lakes into southern Canada will also lead to what looks to be cyclic development of convective complexes...some of which will likely impact our area at various times. Heat dome/subtropical ridge does look to relax some as we head into the middle and latter portions of next week.

Primary Forecast Concerns:

Temperature trends (just how hot it becomes) and additional shower/storm concerns through the period.

Details:

First order of business is the increasing heat. Simple use of top/down thermal progs and pattern recognition continue to support some downright uncomfortable warm (perhaps dangerous so)
temperatures, especially by Sunday and Monday when highs look to easily top 90 degrees across much of northern lower Michigan, with mid 90s easily attainable across downslope favored areas of northeast lower Michigan. Low level environment will also be a moisture-rich one, with current trends supporting dewpoints in the 60s through the period. This will not only make it feel even more uncomfortable during the daylight hours, but likely keep overnight lows from falling too much...with current expectation that lows will remain in the 60s and 70s Saturday night through Monday night.
Combination of all the above may eventually require the need for some heat related headlines. Much too early for that of course, but definitely something to monitor as we head into this weekend and early next week.

Uncertainty is much higher with regards to additional shower and thunderstorm chances through the period. Again, pattern recognition strongly supports periodic bursts of deep convective to develop to our west and northwest along strong instability gradient and episodes of enhanced low level jet support. Instability gradient is in a favorable position to allow at least some of this activity to ride east/southeast into our area at times Thursday night into the start of the weekend. Quick hitting shot of mid level support and attendant significant ramp-up of low level jet looks to bring the best potential of a more organized and intense convective complex Friday night into Saturday morning (timing subject to change of course). Latest SPC Day 3 outlook has nearly half of our area in a marginal risk for severe storms during that period...although they do mention quite a bit of uncertainty...both with storm organization potential and eventual propagation of any convective complex.

Current trends support active instability gradient to bow north into Canada with time Saturday night into Sunday night...perhaps retreating south again Monday as western trough begins to exert more influence. Cooler weather looks to return on Wednesday as a cold front works through the region. Plenty of time to monitor how this unfolds in the coming days.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
Issued at 115 PM EDT Wed Jun 18 2025

SHRA and TSRA chances increase through the afternoon into the evening, favoring all sites except CIU. Steadiest rain and lowest VSBY expected after 23z this evening as low pressure traverses lower Michigan, bringing widespread rain, heavy at times (especially APN)
and thunder chances. MVFR is anticipated to prevail, with potential for IFR in areas of steadier rain. Conditions improve Thursday morning as the system exits the area.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
MARINE...None.