Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for East Jordan, MI

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Issued at 251 AM EDT Sat Jun 14 2025

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST:

Troughing over the western US/PacNW...with sharp ridge over the western Canadian Prairies...and broader ridge over the Desert SW. A lollygagging shortwave in the flow over the Mid MS Valley...with surface reflection over MO and a BCZ extending through the OH Valley into the Mid Atlantic. Hudson Bay high pressure to our northeast...but PV crossing through Ontario is dirtying the southern edge of the high...and confluence zone aloft over the Upper Great Lakes with some continued shower activity across the region as a result. Most activity remains rather high-based across northern Michigan, with low-level NE/E flow helping feed slightly drier air in from Canada.

Heights slowly rise today...with generally quieter weather overhead compared to yesterday...though some showers should try to move back in during the afternoon into tonight as upstream activity tries to move into the region...though not sure how well it will actually make it in here, given the low-level dry air will be persistent.
Best rain chances, if any at all, will be across NW Lower...and will expect further improvements into Sunday, especially in the temperature category, as winds turn more southerly with time, allowing for increasingly warm, moist, and therefore, unstable air to maneuver toward the Great Lakes. Waves cresting the upstream ridge will set up the potential for periods of showers and thunderstorms through the week...and think there is some potential for a boundary to stall in our region for midweek as upper level system tries to become organized to our west/southwest...keeping things unsettled, and perhaps breezy, through at least the middle of the week. Beyond this
increasing uncertainty in the pattern
with signals for either a bit of a zonal flow or perhaps a strengthening ridge axis to our west...both of which could lead to active weather for the eastern US/Midwest.

Short Term Primary Forecast Concerns:

Temperature trends through tonight... Think today will end up being very similar to yesterday, with warmest temps across southern zones/southwest zones where cloud cover should be able to break up a bit more. Perhaps a touch warmer overall, as there is a better chance for more breaks in the clouds across more of the area today...with high pressure trying to back into the region going into tonight
Given this idea
suspect winds will be lighter tonight...which, if we do remain clear, could lead to a cooler night tonight (mid 40s or lower not out of the question, esp across NE Lower)...though this latter idea is a bit more unclear (pun intended).

Rain chances tonight...Setup is not greatest, but does show a little promise for potential activity to ride down the upstream ridge into the Great Lakes region
Attm
appears the more favorable trajectory of this would be to our south/southwest, and current forecast reflects this...though could be something to keep an eye on going forward.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Issued at 251 AM EDT Sat Jun 14 2025

Rain/thunder chances through the period... First of these will be Sunday night into Monday as a wave passes by to our north...enhancing upstream theta-e advection across the Upper Midwest. Think we may again need to keep an eye on that upstream activity, particularly if it gets going a little further north than tonight's activity, as it would then have a better trajectory (in theory) to make it into northern Lower. Moisture will be on the increase for the early part of the week, which should make things more unstable for us, potentially allowing for some pop- up showers and storms across parts of the area Monday.

Better thunderstorm threat appears to arrive late Monday night into Tuesday and beyond...as the airmass become increasingly unstable, combined with forcing from a PV max slipping across southern Canada.
Position of the boundary looks to be to our west to start the day, which should allow moisture/instability to further increase...along with warmer temps (pending cloud cover in the vicinity Tuesday, which could keep temps cooler than currently forecast). Winds with this system do not appear super strong attm, so amount of storm organization is somewhat unclear attm, at least for our neck of the woods
Attm
still looks like this SW-NE oriented boundary will attempt to stall in the vicinity for midweek...as another system develops along it long about Wednesday. This latter setup could very well leave parts of the Upper Great Lakes open to multiple periods of heavy/efficient rain...as it should become a focus for a) warm advection precip along the boundary ahead of the developing low, and b) deformation axis precip along/north of the low as it winds up.

Warm temperatures return Monday and Tuesday...incoming air mass should be supportive of highs into the 80s through the early part of the week, perhaps into Wednesday, pending the position of that boundary. It will be increasingly humid as well, as the air mass will also be supportive of dewpoints into the 60s. As briefly mentioned above, still wonder if cloud cover from upstream convection (or any upstream convection riding into our region) will be able to diminish high temps either Monday or Tuesday.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
Issued at 1232 AM EDT Sat Jun 14 2025

VFR conditions are expected at northern Michigan TAF sites through the issuance period. Light rain showers will linger over the next several hours, eventually dissipating this morning and leaving dry conditions through this upcoming evening. BKN/SCT cloud cover with bases around 4-5kft is expected to hang around for most of the issuance period. East winds between 5-10 kts will be in place through the day with lake breeze formation likely pushing inland from Lake Michigan during the afternoon.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
MARINE...None.