Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Boyne Falls, MI
October 3, 2023 4:01 PM EDT (20:01 UTC)
Sunrise 7:37AM Sunset 7:15PM Moonrise 8:30PM Moonset 11:58AM
LMZ342 Norwood Mi To 5nm West Of Mackinac Bridge Including Little Traverse Bay- 350 Pm Edt Tue Oct 3 2023
.small craft advisory in effect from Wednesday morning through Wednesday evening...
Tonight..South wind 10 to 15 knots. Mostly clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
Wednesday..South wind 15 to 20 knots. Scattered showers and isolated Thunderstorms. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
Wednesday night..Southwest wind 10 to 20 knots. Numerous showers. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Thursday..Southwest wind 10 to 15 knots. Scattered showers. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
winds and waves higher in the vicinity of Thunderstorms.
see the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.
.small craft advisory in effect from Wednesday morning through Wednesday evening...
Tonight..South wind 10 to 15 knots. Mostly clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
Wednesday..South wind 15 to 20 knots. Scattered showers and isolated Thunderstorms. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
Wednesday night..Southwest wind 10 to 20 knots. Numerous showers. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Thursday..Southwest wind 10 to 15 knots. Scattered showers. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
winds and waves higher in the vicinity of Thunderstorms.
see the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.
LMZ300
No data
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Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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FXUS63 KAPX 031728 AFDAPX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 128 PM EDT Tue Oct 3 2023
UPDATE
Issued at 1103 AM EDT Tue Oct 3 2023
No big changes to the forecast with record to near record highs in the 80s this afternoon.
NEAR TERM
(Today through Tonight)
Issued at 329 AM EDT Tue Oct 3 2023
Toasty
High Impact Weather Potential...locally dense fog this morning.
An e-w baroclinic zone remains north of Superior, and has some spotty convection with it. We are deep in the warm sector. Places that have decoupled have temps in the low-mid 50s, along with some fog. Meanwhile, Frankfort is still 73f at 3am (the normal high for today at nearby TVC is 65f). There is a touch of mid and high clouds over northern portions of the area.
For now, it does not appear that morning fog/stratus will be widespread enough to seriously interfere with diurnal heating.
Little cloud cover is expected today. S to ssw surface winds will be seen, though somewhat light; TVC will get a bit of a downsloping boost, but not a major one.
Max temps today near 80f in most of eastern upper MI. Northern lower MI will be in the low-mid 80s, though TVC and a few other spots will touch the upper 80s. ANJ is the most likely spot to see a record high today (that record is just 77f). Everyone else (PLN/GLR/APN/TVC/HTL) will be in the ballpark, though.
Still quiet tonight, though cloud cover will poke in from the west overnight, in advance of an initial (and weakening) cold front. This will keep temps balmy, with a tightening pressure gradient making it more difficult to decouple. Some places in the se probably still will, and will only mention fog there overnight.
Balmy temps from the mid 50s to mid 60s.
SHORT TERM
(Wednesday through Thursday)
Issued at 329 AM EDT Tue Oct 3 2023
Wetter and starting to cool off
High Impact Weather Potential...minimal.
500mb ridging will move off the east coast, allowing troffing to become established in central NA. An initial shortwave lifts from northern MN to southern Hudson Bay during this period. A trailing northern stream upper trof digs toward far western Ontario by late Thursday. At the surface, an initial, decaying cold front (associated with the exiting shortwave) drifts into northern MI late Wed night. A stronger cold front (associated with the digging upper trof) will be on the doorstep by Thu evening.
The initial cold front, as of early Wed, is not expected to have a lot of convection along it (on our latitude, at least). There isn't a lot of instability in the region (MlCape values should stay shy of 500j/kg, highest in ne lower MI Wed afternoon). Low-level flow is initially parallel to the front. But further south (southern lakes/OH Valley), 1000-850mb winds are somewhat backed, providing for an increasing cross-boundary component to the flow with time.
This airmass is quite moist, even if never terribly unstable (poor lapse rates). But between the above, and falling 500mb heights, convection will increase along the front, just in time for it to move into northern MI.
Wednesday will start dry, with some increase in cloud cover from w to e. Shower/t-storm chances increase in the w and n in the afternoon/early evening, though likely pops are only in far western Chip/Mack Cos. High-likely to categorical pops then cross the region Wed night. Locally heavy rain is a possibility Wed night (isolated 1-2" rain totals), though flooding seems unlikely.
The deeper moisture band stalls over ne lower MI on Thursday, though forcing is dwindling as well (before the next cold front arrives). Likely pops continue Thu in ne lower MI, with chancy precip elsewhere.
Wednesday will be the last very warm day, though cloud cover will not allow to get as hot as we otherwise would. Max temps from the upper 70s western Chip/Mack Cos, to the mid 80s in the se up to APN/Rogers. Lows Wed night in the 50s. Highs Thu upper 60s to lower 70s (still about 10f above normal).
LONG TERM
(Thursday night through Monday)
Issued at 329 AM EDT Tue Oct 3 2023
High Impact Weather Potential... Minimal
Nothing too much has changed in the forecast when compared to yesterdays discussion. A cold front is still expected to sweep through the Great Lakes region this Thursday. Behind the boundary, temperatures will return to average for early october then continue to cool down this weekend.
Longwave troughing currently over the western U.S will track towards the eastern half of the CONUS by mid week. Ascent associated with the aformentioned trough will promote low pressure to develop lee of the rockies and move to Northern Ontario, dragging a frontal boundary across the CWA this Thursday. Temperatures will drop back to average for early October. Coolest days will be Saturday and Sunday where a several locations across northern Michigan will not reach a high of 50 degrees. Showers behind the front will periodically continue through the weekend before conditions slowly begin to dry out next week. No heavy precipitation is expected.
AVIATION
(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 124 PM EDT Tue Oct 3 2023
High pressure will slide off to our southeast through tonight.
Attention then turns to low pressure and an associated cold front approaching from the northwest Wednesday into Wednesday night.
Fairly light southerly winds through tonight are expected to become gusty Wednesday. LLWS is expected to develop late tonight at some taf sites. Cigs/vsbys are expected to be VFR through the taf period.
MARINE
Issued at 1103 AM EDT Tue Oct 3 2023
Southerly breezes continue into Wednesday, before an initial cold front veers winds to sw Wed night. Winds/waves to remain below advisory criteria thru tonight. On Wed, the long southerly fetch on Lake MI are is expected to result in winds/waves reaching advisory levels there (especially toward the north tip of the lake). As a result, issued small craft advisories for much of Lake Michigan.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM to 11 PM EDT Wednesday for LMZ323- 341-342-344>346.
LS...NONE.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 128 PM EDT Tue Oct 3 2023
UPDATE
Issued at 1103 AM EDT Tue Oct 3 2023
No big changes to the forecast with record to near record highs in the 80s this afternoon.
NEAR TERM
(Today through Tonight)
Issued at 329 AM EDT Tue Oct 3 2023
Toasty
High Impact Weather Potential...locally dense fog this morning.
An e-w baroclinic zone remains north of Superior, and has some spotty convection with it. We are deep in the warm sector. Places that have decoupled have temps in the low-mid 50s, along with some fog. Meanwhile, Frankfort is still 73f at 3am (the normal high for today at nearby TVC is 65f). There is a touch of mid and high clouds over northern portions of the area.
For now, it does not appear that morning fog/stratus will be widespread enough to seriously interfere with diurnal heating.
Little cloud cover is expected today. S to ssw surface winds will be seen, though somewhat light; TVC will get a bit of a downsloping boost, but not a major one.
Max temps today near 80f in most of eastern upper MI. Northern lower MI will be in the low-mid 80s, though TVC and a few other spots will touch the upper 80s. ANJ is the most likely spot to see a record high today (that record is just 77f). Everyone else (PLN/GLR/APN/TVC/HTL) will be in the ballpark, though.
Still quiet tonight, though cloud cover will poke in from the west overnight, in advance of an initial (and weakening) cold front. This will keep temps balmy, with a tightening pressure gradient making it more difficult to decouple. Some places in the se probably still will, and will only mention fog there overnight.
Balmy temps from the mid 50s to mid 60s.
SHORT TERM
(Wednesday through Thursday)
Issued at 329 AM EDT Tue Oct 3 2023
Wetter and starting to cool off
High Impact Weather Potential...minimal.
500mb ridging will move off the east coast, allowing troffing to become established in central NA. An initial shortwave lifts from northern MN to southern Hudson Bay during this period. A trailing northern stream upper trof digs toward far western Ontario by late Thursday. At the surface, an initial, decaying cold front (associated with the exiting shortwave) drifts into northern MI late Wed night. A stronger cold front (associated with the digging upper trof) will be on the doorstep by Thu evening.
The initial cold front, as of early Wed, is not expected to have a lot of convection along it (on our latitude, at least). There isn't a lot of instability in the region (MlCape values should stay shy of 500j/kg, highest in ne lower MI Wed afternoon). Low-level flow is initially parallel to the front. But further south (southern lakes/OH Valley), 1000-850mb winds are somewhat backed, providing for an increasing cross-boundary component to the flow with time.
This airmass is quite moist, even if never terribly unstable (poor lapse rates). But between the above, and falling 500mb heights, convection will increase along the front, just in time for it to move into northern MI.
Wednesday will start dry, with some increase in cloud cover from w to e. Shower/t-storm chances increase in the w and n in the afternoon/early evening, though likely pops are only in far western Chip/Mack Cos. High-likely to categorical pops then cross the region Wed night. Locally heavy rain is a possibility Wed night (isolated 1-2" rain totals), though flooding seems unlikely.
The deeper moisture band stalls over ne lower MI on Thursday, though forcing is dwindling as well (before the next cold front arrives). Likely pops continue Thu in ne lower MI, with chancy precip elsewhere.
Wednesday will be the last very warm day, though cloud cover will not allow to get as hot as we otherwise would. Max temps from the upper 70s western Chip/Mack Cos, to the mid 80s in the se up to APN/Rogers. Lows Wed night in the 50s. Highs Thu upper 60s to lower 70s (still about 10f above normal).
LONG TERM
(Thursday night through Monday)
Issued at 329 AM EDT Tue Oct 3 2023
High Impact Weather Potential... Minimal
Nothing too much has changed in the forecast when compared to yesterdays discussion. A cold front is still expected to sweep through the Great Lakes region this Thursday. Behind the boundary, temperatures will return to average for early october then continue to cool down this weekend.
Longwave troughing currently over the western U.S will track towards the eastern half of the CONUS by mid week. Ascent associated with the aformentioned trough will promote low pressure to develop lee of the rockies and move to Northern Ontario, dragging a frontal boundary across the CWA this Thursday. Temperatures will drop back to average for early October. Coolest days will be Saturday and Sunday where a several locations across northern Michigan will not reach a high of 50 degrees. Showers behind the front will periodically continue through the weekend before conditions slowly begin to dry out next week. No heavy precipitation is expected.
AVIATION
(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 124 PM EDT Tue Oct 3 2023
High pressure will slide off to our southeast through tonight.
Attention then turns to low pressure and an associated cold front approaching from the northwest Wednesday into Wednesday night.
Fairly light southerly winds through tonight are expected to become gusty Wednesday. LLWS is expected to develop late tonight at some taf sites. Cigs/vsbys are expected to be VFR through the taf period.
MARINE
Issued at 1103 AM EDT Tue Oct 3 2023
Southerly breezes continue into Wednesday, before an initial cold front veers winds to sw Wed night. Winds/waves to remain below advisory criteria thru tonight. On Wed, the long southerly fetch on Lake MI are is expected to result in winds/waves reaching advisory levels there (especially toward the north tip of the lake). As a result, issued small craft advisories for much of Lake Michigan.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM to 11 PM EDT Wednesday for LMZ323- 341-342-344>346.
LS...NONE.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| 45022 | 18 mi | 22 min | WSW 1.9G | 78°F | 67°F | 1 ft | 30.04 | 61°F |
| GTLM4 - Grand Traverse Light, MI | 33 mi | 82 min | WSW 9.9G | 83°F | 30.08 | |||
| CYGM4 - Cheybogan, MI | 42 mi | 72 min | SSW 4.1G | |||||
| MACM4 - 9075080 - Mackinaw City, MI | 43 mi | 62 min | NE 5.1G | 70°F | 63°F | 30.04 | 64°F | |
| 45175 | 46 mi | 22 min | 0G | 71°F | 69°F | 1 ft | 30.06 | 65°F |
| 45183 | 49 mi | 62 min | WSW 9.7G | 71°F | 1 ft | 30.12 | 66°F |
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Airport Reports
EDIT (on/off) Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KGLR GAYLORD RGNL,MI | 16 sm | 68 min | SSW 11G21 | 10 sm | Clear | 84°F | 55°F | 37% | 30.11 | |
| KMGN HARBOR SPRINGS,MI | 18 sm | 26 min | WSW 03 | 10 sm | Clear | 81°F | 57°F | 45% | 30.06 | |
| KACB ANTRIM COUNTY,MI | 19 sm | 26 min | SW 05 | 10 sm | Clear | 86°F | 50°F | 29% | 30.06 | |
| KCVX CHARLEVOIX MUNI,MI | 21 sm | 26 min | SSW 10G18 | 10 sm | Clear | 86°F | 54°F | 33% | 30.06 |
Wind History from MGN
(wind in knots)
Gaylord, MI,
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